<div class="quote_poster">Quoting huevonkiller:</div><div class="quote_post">Well I agree with most of this (nice post) however, how many people since 1980 have been able to play 43 MPG? It could be possible but he might get into more foul trouble, etc. , in today's game.</div> He had the stamina, but it's about foul trouble. He never fouled out in a game, and has a career average of 2.0 FPG in 45.8 MPG. Even in the 70's he was only averaging 2.1-2.6 FPG. So whatever era he's in, it seems like he'd have no problem with fouls. He was very mobile that he wouldn't have problems keeping up with guards and blocking their shots without body contact. Now I do know that now there's some coaches who tell their perimeter guys to go into the bigs looking for fouls. Chicago agaisnt Shaq, but in most games he'd be able to stay out of foul trouble, and his superior mobility to Shaq gives him an advantage. He would still be in the 46+ MPG range, and possibly still able to play close to 48 some seasons. The coaches will probably take him off in blowouts etc to give young guys PT, so that's probably what would bring down his mPG. If you look at a guy like Duncan, he has a career FPG average of 2.8 FPG in 37.9 MPG. If he had the stamina to play 10 more MPG, he wouldn't foul out. Wilt is a similar player in terms of on court smarts, so I don't think he'd have a problem. Offensive fouls could possibly become the problem though like it is with Shaq sometimes, but he had more finnesse than Shaq and didn't have to power over players as much as Shaq does. He'll have to go against some floppers, but I think he'd be fine in that regard.
Here's a fun little "what if" scenario, using some statistical manipuation. What if Wilt was drafted in 1992 instead of 1960. What kind of per game numbers would he have gotten? I'll just look at points, rebounds, and assists here. Firstly, these were his averages during his 14 year career: <div class='codetop'>CODE</div><div class='codemain'><br/>Wilt Chamberlain<br/>MPG PPG RPG APG<br/>--------------------- <br/>196046.437.627.02.3<br/>196147.838.427.21.9<br/>196248.550.425.72.4<br/>196347.644.824.33.4<br/>196446.136.922.35.0<br/>196545.234.722.93.4<br/>196647.333.524.65.2<br/>196745.524.124.27.8<br/>196846.824.323.88.6<br/>196945.320.521.14.5<br/>197042.127.318.44.1<br/>197144.320.718.24.3<br/>197242.314.819.24.0<br/>197343.213.218.64.5<br/></div> Pretty impressive. People often look at these numbers and are simply astonished. 50 points and 25 rebounds a game? Well, let's see how well Wilt's numbers hold up if he played in the same era as Shaquille O'neal. First, I'll assume he plays the same number of minutes per game as he did historically (which is being generous, by the way). And for each statitical category (points, rebounds, assists, etc.), I'll assume the ratio [stat per minute]/[league average stat per minute] is the same. So, if he scored at a rate of x% more than the league average in 1960, then he'll score x% above the league average in 1992. Let's compare his "per game" pts, reb, and assists to one Shaquille O'neal in the same time period (1993-2006): <div class='codetop'>CODE</div><div class='codemain'><br/>Wilt Chamberlain Shaquille O'neal<br/>MPG PPG RPG APG MPG PPG RPG APG <br/>--------------------- ---------------------<br/>199346.434.315.82.6 37.923.413.91.9 <br/>199447.833.116.01.9 39.829.313.22.4<br/>199548.542.914.92.3 37.029.311.42.7<br/>199647.638.715.03.4 36.026.611.02.9<br/>199746.132.113.95.2 38.126.212.53.1<br/>199845.230.014.13.6 36.328.311.42.4<br/>199947.326.414.94.7 34.826.310.72.3<br/>200045.520.015.47.7 40.029.713.63.8<br/>200146.819.715.28.1 39.528.712.73.7<br/>200245.317.415.74.3 36.227.210.73.0<br/>200342.122.214.73.5 37.827.511.13.1<br/>200444.317.114.43.8 36.821.511.52.9<br/>200542.313.015.63.5 34.122.910.42.7<br/>200643.211.915.03.6 30.620.09.2 1.9<br/></div> Wilt's numbers still look great, in comparison, but not quite as other-worldly as before. Realistically, it's hard to imagine that Wilt would have averaged over 45 minutes a game his whole career if he played in modern times. He probably wouldn't have been able to avoid foul trouble as easily, for one. And would playing against stiffer competition tire him out a bit more? Perhaps this is being somewhat unfair to Wilt ... maybe he could have averaged 40-42 minutes a game for his career, even in modern times. For comparison sake, let's suppose that Wilt played the same number of minute per game as Shaq has during his career. Now how do they compare? <div class='codetop'>CODE</div><div class='codemain'><br/>Wilt Chamberlain Shaquille O'neal<br/>MPG PPG RPG APG MPG PPG RPG APG <br/>--------------------- ---------------------<br/>199337.928.012.92.1 37.923.413.91.9 <br/>199439.827.513.31.6 39.829.313.22.4<br/>199537.032.711.41.8 37.029.311.42.7<br/>199636.029.311.42.6 36.026.611.02.9<br/>199738.126.511.54.3 38.126.212.53.1<br/>199836.324.111.42.9 36.328.311.42.4<br/>199934.819.411.03.5 34.826.310.72.3<br/>200040.017.613.56.8 40.029.713.63.8<br/>200139.516.612.96.9 39.528.712.73.7<br/>200236.213.912.63.4 36.227.210.73.0<br/>200337.820.013.23.2 37.827.511.13.1<br/>200436.814.212.03.1 36.821.511.52.9<br/>200534.110.512.62.9 34.122.910.42.7<br/>200630.68.4 10.62.6 30.620.09.2 1.9<br/></div> At this point, Shaq's numbers actually are starting to look better than Wilt's. Shaq never had the huge assist years Wilt had. Shaq's remained a go to scorer even near the end of his career, while Wilt's scoring dropped significantly. At the same time, Shaq's rebounding actually isn't that far behind Wilt's (surprisingly) ... though Chamberlain's rebounding in the latter half of his career was clearly superior.
^^so would you consider KG a better rebounder than wilt? Wilts numbers look a lot like KG's, more scoring (obviously), but less consistent.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting TheFreshPrince:</div><div class="quote_post">^^so would you consider KG a better rebounder than wilt? Wilts numbers look a lot like KG's, more scoring (obviously), but less consistent.</div> It's impossible for me to say who in fact was the better rebounder. A lot of people, just looking at the per game numbers, might say it's obviously Wilt. I don't think that's necessarily true. I judge rebounding by oreb% (percentage of potential boards on offensive end that are rebounded) plus dreb% (percentage of potential boards on defensive end that are rebounded). KG's rebounding in this regard the last three seasons have been phenomonal. Don't know for sure what it was for Wilt; at his best he was probably close to what KG has been doing but I don't know if he exceeded it.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting durvasa:</div><div class="quote_post">It's impossible for me to say who in fact was the better rebounder. A lot of people, just looking at the per game numbers, might say it's obviously Wilt. I don't think that's necessarily true. I judge rebounding by oreb% (percentage of potential boards on offensive end that are rebounded) plus dreb% (percentage of potential boards on defensive end that are rebounded). KG's rebounding in this regard the last three seasons have been phenomonal. Don't know for sure what it was for Wilt; at his best he was probably close to what KG has been doing but I don't know if he exceeded it.</div> thats crazy, i would have never thought that wilt was only that good. lol, that sounds weird, but i figured his numbers were still the best ever. Also do rodman's numbers need to be adjusted compared to KG's these last few years, i am just curious since Rodman's are quite a bit higher.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting TheFreshPrince:</div><div class="quote_post">thats crazy, i would have never thought that wilt was only that good. lol, that sounds weird, but i figured his numbers were still the best ever. Also do rodman's numbers need to be adjusted compared to KG's these last few years, i am just curious since Rodman's are quite a bit higher.</div> Rodman was a stud. By far the greatest rebounder ever. At the same time, he focused almost all his energy (after his first 3 or 4 years in the league) on rebounding ... while players like Garnett or Wilt had many other responsibilities. I mentioned looking at oreb% and dreb%. A pretty good estimate of this result would be Rebound Rate stat, which is available at basketball-reference.com. Top 50 seasons in Rebound Rate (since 1978) is here. Rebounding data isn't fully complete in Chamberlain's time. But I notice now that basketball-reference.com has been able to calculate Rebound rate for several of his seasons. Here's a season by season comparison of Wilt, KG, and Rodman by rebound rate: <div class='codetop'>CODE</div><div class='codemain'><br/> Wilt GarnettRodman<br/>YrRbR YrRbR YrRbR <br/>------------------------------------<br/>196519.1199613.1198715.5<br/>196619.2199712.2198818.6<br/>196719.9199813.9198919.8<br/>196818.8199915.4199019.0<br/>197118.4200017.1199121.3<br/>197220.1200116.4199226.2<br/>197319.6200217.8199326.0<br/>200318.8199425.7<br/>200420.1199529.7<br/>200520.3199626.6<br/>200619.6199725.6<br/>199824.1<br/>199922.9<br/>200023.6<br/></div> That's should illustrate where they stand in relation to eachother, as rebounders.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting TheFreshPrince:</div><div class="quote_post">Wow, so rodmans shouldnt be adjusted, he was jsut that good. that great stuff, thanks durvasa</div> Well, Rodman's per minute rebounding doesn't look as good as Wilt's unless you do the adjustment (compare their per minute rebounding, relative to league average). What I was comparing their wasn't per minute rebounding, but rather rebounding% (which Rebound Rate is estimating). Rebounding% isn't impacted by differences in pace like per-minute rebounding is, so doing an adjustment isn't really necessary.
Wow.. Wilt average 50 points and 25 rebounds? I guess centers back then sucked because if Wilt was playing today, he wouldn't average half as much in points and rebounds. He was just amazing. But i have 1 question. How could he average so many points and rebounds. And why cant players today do that?
Very interesting Comparisons between Wilt and Shaq. Although they are not perfect, as it is very difficult to do it in any way I think they seem to be a good guide.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Umair15:</div><div class="quote_post">Wow.. Wilt average 50 points and 25 rebounds? I guess centers back then sucked because if Wilt was playing today, he wouldn't average half as much in points and rebounds. He was just amazing. But i have 1 question. How could he average so many points and reboundsAnd why cant players today do that?</div> The rebound thing has been thoroughly addressed. As for the points, there were more shots taken, the pace of the game was faster, TS% lower and such. Players can't do that today because there aren't enough rebounds to go around/the pace of games are slower.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting SkiptoMyLue11:</div><div class="quote_post">Very interesting Comparisons between Wilt and Shaq. Although they are not perfect, as it is very difficult to do it in any way I think they seem to be a good guide.</div> I may have underestimated Wilt's rebounding based based on my adjustment. His rebound rate exceeded Shaq's every year (comparing his 1965 season to Shaq's 1998 season, 1966 to 1999, etc.), but based on my adjustment the rebounding is much closer. This suggests that Wilt might have been a bit better than his per-minute rebounding (slightly less than average rebounding opportunities on his teams compared to the rest of the league at the time).
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting huevonkiller:</div><div class="quote_post">The rebound thing has been thoroughly addressed. As for the points, there were more shots taken, the pace of the game was faster, TS% lower and such. Players can't do that today because there aren't enough rebounds to go around/the pace of games are slower.</div> It would be nice if people read the thread, and why does everyone just immediately assume C's sucked as opposed to Wilt just being that good. Obviously you have to look at pace first, and people forget that he plaeyd 48 MPG. If you look at PER 48 minute scoring numbers this season, the Top 5 guys: Kobe: 41.5 PPG Iverson: 36.7 PPG Lebron James: 35.4 PPG Carmelo: 34.6 PPG Wade: 33.8 PPG Now look at Wilt's adjusted PPG numbers from <font color=""Navy"">Wilt:</font> 43.8 PPG, 18.6 RPG, 2.4 APG, .536 TS% in 48.5 MPG So when you take minutes into account he's only scoring 2.3 more PPG than Kobe did this season. His TS% is a little low, but considering back in his earlier days, dunking was considered a bad thing, it would affect his percentages to be doing fingerolls instead. So you'd have to give him a slight FG% and TS% bump due to that. Either way, if that was this season, considering the slower pace, and different rules concerning fouls, he'd play something like 42-43 MPG not 48.5 MPG. So he would put up something like 37.9 PPG, 16.1 RPG (I'm not sure about the adjusted rebounding numbers from this site), 2.1 APG, and of course since he's playing so many minutes, think of how many blocks a guy like Mark Eaton would average in 42 MPG, so 6-7 BPG. I don't know what other player in the league I could consider being that good or even close right now. <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">Very interesting Comparisons between Wilt and Shaq. Although they are not perfect, as it is very difficult to do it in any way I think they seem to be a good guide.</div> Outside of his rookie season, Shaq would never have been on the level of Wilt as a rebounder.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting og15:</div><div class="quote_post"> Now look at Wilt's adjusted PPG numbers from <font color=""Navy"">Wilt:</font> 43.8 PPG, 18.6 RPG, 2.4 APG, .536 TS% in 48.5 MPG </div> Which site are these numbers from? I don't think his rebounds would be that high.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting durvasa:</div><div class="quote_post">Which site are these numbers from? I don't think his rebounds would be that high.</div> It might sense he was like one of the few 7foot players in the league at that time, naw but they do say that he was one of the best rebounders. Man, but that is a ridiculously high number!!
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting durvasa:</div><div class="quote_post">Which site are these numbers from? I don't think his rebounds would be that high.</div> Yea, that's what I said too, because I looked at his RBr for his last few years, and they were no better than Dwight's, and Dwight wouldn't grab that many. http://members.aol.com/bradleyrd/1946-67stats.html No explanation is given on how the numbers are formulated. <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">It might sense he was like one of the few 7foot players in the league at that time, naw but they do say that he was one of the best rebounders. Man, but that is a ridiculously high number!!</div> Wilt Chamberlain: 1959 - 1973 (listed 7'1 - today would likely be listed at 7'2 - 7'4) Nate Thurmond: 1962 - 1977 (listed 6'11, today would likely be listed at 7'0 - 7'1) Walter Dukes: 1955 - 1963 (listed at 7'0, today would likely be listed at 7'1 - 7'2) Ray Felix: 1953 - 1962 (listed 6'11, today would likely be listed at 7'0 - 7'1) Phil Jordon: 1955 - 1963 (listed 6'10, today would likely be listed 6'11 - 7'0) Chuck Share: 1951 - 1960 (listed 6'11, today would likely be listed 7'0 - 7'1) Darrall Imhoff: 1960 - 1972 (listed at 6'10, today would likely be listed at 6'11 - 7'0) Average NBA player, 1965?6'6?, 215 pounds (no shoes) Average NBA player, 2000?6'7?, 224 (with shoes) So there truly isn't a height difference as most people think.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting og15:</div><div class="quote_post">Yea, that's what I said too, because I looked at his RBr for his last few years, and they were no better than Dwight's, and Dwight wouldn't grab that many. http://members.aol.com/bradleyrd/1946-67stats.html No explanation is given on how the numbers are formulated. </div> Ok, I saw this a couple years back. Here's his introduction on how he came up with the numbers: http://members.aol.com/bradleyrd/AlHoffman.html The reason it seems so high is because he adjusts to league average over the entire history of the NBA. It so happens that, over the entire history of the league, the pace was much higher than it is right now. So, the rebounding total is higher than they would be right now. For instance, this is what he calculates for Wilt and Shaq, respectively: <div class='codetop'>CODE</div><div class='codemain'><br/>Wilt ChamberlainmpgrebShaquille O'Neal mpg reb <br/>1972-7343.2 19.21999-2000 40.016.5<br/>1971-7242.3 20.31998-99 34.813.3<br/>1970-7144.3 17.71997-98 36.314.1<br/>1969-7042.1 18.01996-97 38.115.8<br/>1968-6945.3 19.21995-96 36.013.9<br/>1967-6846.8 18.61994-95 37.014.2<br/>1966-6745.5 18.61993-94 37.916.7<br/>1965-6647.3 18.71992-93 39.815.9<br/>1964-6545.2 17.6<br/>1963-6446.1 17.6<br/>1962-6347.6 18.9<br/>1961-6248.5 18.6<br/>1960-6147.8 19.2<br/>1959-6046.4 19.0<br/></div> Their rebounding actually turns out to be pretty similar, if you look at it per minute. Over the history of the league, average rebounds per game is 51.8, while in 1960 (for instance) average rebounds per game was 73.5. So, he multiplies Wilt's RPG by 51.8/73.5 to get an adjusted RPG. In 2006, however, team's averaged only 41.0 rebounds per game. So, in 2006, Wilt's 1960 RPG would become 15.1. And that's while playing 46.4 minutes a game. If Dwight Howard played that many minutes a game last season, he might have gotten 15.7 RPG. Further, if Dwight Howard's 2006 season came in 1960, using the same method, he would have averaged 22.4 RPG playing 36.9 minutes a game. <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post"> Now look at Wilt's adjusted PPG numbers from <font color=""Navy"">Wilt:</font> 43.8 PPG, 18.6 RPG, 2.4 APG, .536 TS% in 48.5 MPG So when you take minutes into account he's only scoring 2.3 more PPG than Kobe did this season. His TS% is a little low, but considering back in his earlier days, dunking was considered a bad thing, it would affect his percentages to be doing fingerolls instead. So you'd have to give him a slight FG% and TS% bump due to that. Either way, if that was this season, considering the slower pace, and different rules concerning fouls, he'd play something like 42-43 MPG not 48.5 MPG. So he would put up something like 37.9 PPG, 16.1 RPG (I'm not sure about the adjusted rebounding numbers from this site), 2.1 APG, and of course since he's playing so many minutes, think of how many blocks a guy like Mark Eaton would average in 42 MPG, so 6-7 BPG. I don't know what other player in the league I could consider being that good or even close right now.</div> When I adjust Wilt's 50ppg season (1960) for 2006, I get that he would average 41.2 ppg in 48.5 mpg. If, as you say, he'd only play 43mpg today, then that would bump down to 36.5. And per 40 minutes, that would just be 34.0 points/40. In contrast, Kobe averaged 34.6 points/40min last season. So, one could actually make the argument that Kobe's scoring last year was more impressive than what Wilt did, on a per minute basis.
Durvasa i don't agree with your whole comparing wilt's numbers to shaq's numbers had they played the same minutes. Wilt was in way better shape overall than shaq not talking abiut strength but mainly stamina shaq has missed alot of games over his career. Wilt playing in the modern era would average at least as many minutes a game as a lebron james 42-44+ mpg just to be fair. as opposed to shaq's 35-40 mpg. Also the whole per 40 minute thing is mis-leading. it helps players who don't play alot of minutes and penalizes those who can. Any player who can average 40 mintues a game is doing something right.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Brasco:</div><div class="quote_post"> Also the whole per 40 minute thing is mis-leading. it helps players who don't play alot of minutes and penalizes those who can. Any player who can average 40 mintues a game is doing something right.</div> If you're comparing total value of a player, I agree. If you comparing effectiveness while on the court, then it makes sense to compare per minute numbers (or, better yet, per possession). Also, when you don't adjust for minutes you're really obscuring what makes the player valuable. Wilt wouldn't get more rebounds than Shaq because he's a better rebounder, but rather because he's able to play more minutes. That's why when I'm comparing two players numbers, I prefer to separate it out into MPG and then points/40min, reb/40min, etc. It makes for a better comparison.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Brasco:</div><div class="quote_post">Durvasa i don't agree with your whole comparing wilt's numbers to shaq's numbers had they played the same minutes. Wilt was in way better shape overall than shaq not talking abiut strength but mainly stamina shaq has missed alot of games over his career. Wilt playing in the modern era would average at least as many minutes a game as a lebron james 42-44+ mpg just to be fair. as opposed to shaq's 35-40 mpg. Also the whole per 40 minute thing is mis-leading. it helps players who don't play alot of minutes and penalizes those who can. Any player who can average 40 mintues a game is doing something right.</div> Yes, but looking at rebounds, we can't say Wilt is a better rebounder than Shaq because he plays more minutes and therefore has a higher RPG stat. That's the point of the comparison, it's not to say Wilt's stamina and ability to play the whole game if need be does not add to the value, it's to say on comparisons of things like PPG, APG, RPG, if he's playing more minutes, he would score or rebound more, but that doesn't neccesarily make him a better scorer or rebounder. <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">Their rebounding actually turns out to be pretty similar, if you look at it per minute. Over the history of the league, average rebounds per game is 51.8, while in 1960 (for instance) average rebounds per game was 73.5. So, he multiplies Wilt's RPG by 51.8/73.5 to get an adjusted RPG. In 2006, however, team's averaged only 41.0 rebounds per game. So, in 2006, Wilt's 1960 RPG would become 15.1. And that's while playing 46.4 minutes a game. If Dwight Howard played that many minutes a game last season, he might have gotten 15.7 RPG. Further, if Dwight Howard's 2006 season came in 1960, using the same method, he would have averaged 22.4 RPG playing 36.9 minutes a game. When I adjust Wilt's 50ppg season (1960) for 2006, I get that he would average 41.2 ppg in 48.5 mpg. If, as you say, he'd only play 43mpg today, then that would bump down to 36.5. And per 40 minutes, that would just be 34.0 points/40. In contrast, Kobe averaged 34.6 points/40min last season. So, one could actually make the argument that Kobe's scoring last year was more impressive than what Wilt did, on a per minute basis.</div> Nice, so Wilt wasn't really scoring more on a per minute basis than a Kobe would've. I thought about as much.
