How will Kobe rank in the MVP rankings next year?

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting shapecity:</div><div class="quote_post">Why not provide some reasoning instead of just a smiley? LeBron will be an MVP canidate, so I'm also curious why you'd overlook him as one for the upcoming season.</div>

Lebronze will be an mvp candidate for years to come. I just can't imagine anyone not named Steph Nash being an MVP. Besides, T-Mac is coming back with a vengeance.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Trench:</div><div class="quote_post">Kobe has the killer instincts and mental toughness that Jordan has. How can you say he doesnt. The only difference is the accomplishments, but how many players do you know will ever accomplish what Jordan did in his tenure with the Bulls?

I think the biggest factor is that Jordan was loved by the media while Kobe is not.</div>

Kobe is mentally tough and has killer instincts. But it's not yet at a level of Jordan's. Jordan always seemed to "will" his way to win. His killer instincts translated to wins. Kobe is just not there yet.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting huevonkiller:</div><div class="quote_post">Actually, Dirk/Lebron(flip flop for top spot in PER) and Kobe are ahead of Wade offensively (objectively speaking, from a PER pov).</div>

<font color=""Red"">Here's a post I made on another board some time back that's worth consideration. I think it illustrates how the estimates made in the PER formula can impact the rating.</font>

I mixed in some 82games stuff into the PER formula to try make it more accurate.

Here's an article on calculating PER:
http://basketball-reference.com/about/per.html

Here are the changes I made for the modified PER:
<ul>
[*]Replaced tmAST/tmFG (an estimate for the percentage of a player's field goals that were assisted) with the player's actual assisted% from the 82games player page.
[*]Replaced tmPace with the team's pace while the player was on the court
[*]Replaced the VOP formula (league wide points scored per possession) with a more precise version using actual number of possessions the players played, derived from 82games On/Off page. Instead of 1.034, it turns out to be around 1.074.
[/list]

Here's the top 30 players by the modified PER, with a limit of 500 minutes played in the season. The ast% modification seems to be the biggest factor. Note that the formula for estimating team pace used in the PER formula (fga+0.44*fta+to-orb), which I show below as estPace, overestimates it by about 1% in general (that's why VOP was off). With Arenas on the floor, for instance, the Wizards actually play at a much faster pace, even though below estPace and pace are the same.

<div class='codetop'>CODE</div><div class='codemain'><font size="1"><br/><font color="Navy"> FullNameTmMP estAst% estPace PERast%pace PER2 PERdiff</font><br/>1LeBron JamesCLE 3361 53.6% 89.828.1 32% 89.3 29.9 1.8<br/>2Dwyane Wade MIA 2897 55.7% 91.627.5 34% 91.3 29.3 1.8<br/>3Kobe Bryant LAL 3273 58.0% 90.928.1 44% 91.1 29.0 0.9<br/>4Allen Iverson PHI 3101 55.1% 92.725.9 24% 92.8 28.4 2.5<br/>5Dirk Nowitzki DAL 3086 50.0% 87.828.2 51% 87.1 27.9 -0.2<br/>6Kevin Garnett MIN 2960 59.4% 88.826.8 61% 88.1 26.8 0.0<br/>7Elton Brand LAC 3096 57.1% 91.726.6 60% 91.5 26.2 -0.3<br/>8Steve NashPHO 2801 63.5% 95.823.2 23% 95.5 25.5 2.3<br/>9Chauncey BillupsDET 2928 66.1% 86.823.4 36% 85.7 25.2 1.8<br/>10 Yao MingHOU 1946 58.3% 8825.7 62% 88.7 25.0 -0.7<br/>11 Gilbert ArenasWAS 3383 51.2% 92.323.8 37% 92.3 24.6 0.7<br/>12 Paul Pierce BOS 3087 58.1% 92.223.6 48% 92.2 24.1 0.5<br/>13 Shaquille O'NealMIA 1805 55.7% 91.624.3 58% 91.4 24.0 -0.3<br/>14 Tim DuncanSAS 2787 57.4% 88.523.0 50% 87.4 23.7 0.7<br/>15 Chris PaulNOK 2809 53.7% 8922.1 21% 89.6 23.6 1.6<br/>16 Chris BoshTOR 2751 52.9% 91.223.1 49% 90.1 23.5 0.4<br/>17 Pau Gasol MEM 3132 57.8% 86.422.6 50% 85.4 23.3 0.6<br/>18 Tracy McGrady HOU 1746 58.3% 8822.0 39% 87.9 23.2 1.2<br/>19 Vince CarterNJN 2908 67.8% 89.821.6 50% 89.7 22.7 1.1<br/>20 Shawn MarionPHO 3268 63.5% 95.823.5 76% 95.5 22.7 -0.8<br/>21 Manu Ginobili SAS 1816 57.4% 88.522.3 49% 88.9 22.5 0.2<br/>22 Ray Allen SEA 3022 55.1% 91.622.3 50% 90.6 22.5 0.2<br/>23 Tony Parker SAS 2715 57.4% 88.520.8 33% 88.2 22.5 1.7<br/>24 Zydrunas IlgauskasCLE 2283 53.6% 89.821.9 59% 87.8 21.9 0.0<br/>25 Carmelo Anthony DEN 2940 62.4% 93.922.1 63% 93.5 21.7 -0.4<br/>26 Gerald WallaceCHA 1897 58.0% 93.421.3 53% 93.2 21.7 0.4<br/>27 Andrei KirilenkoUTA 2606 64.6% 8820.6 57% 86.1 21.5 0.8<br/>28 Mike JamesTOR 2921 52.9% 91.219.8 30% 90.5 21.2 1.4<br/>29 Michael ReddMIL 3127 59.4% 91.221.3 59% 91.3 20.9 -0.4<br/>30 Carlos Arroyo ORL 59651.4% 88.418.8 25% 86.9 20.7 1.9</font></div>

You can see that this version of PER is a bit more guard friendly, since their baskets generally aren't assisted as much. This makes sense, since PER is an offense-oriented stat, and guards/perimeter players are usually more important to an offense than bigs (who, conversely, are typically more important on defense). LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Kobe Bryant, and Allen Iverson all vault ahead of Dirk Nowitzki for top PER honors. With this version, Steve Nash now looks like a legitimate MVP candidate statistically.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Bobcats:</div><div class="quote_post"> but I can't stand Kobe fan boys (not you) who thinks he's untouchable and get jealous that LeBron and Dwyane are going to surpass him in the future.</div>

I'm a Kobe fan, and I'll admit it. I think he is untouchable by D-Wade and Lebronze atm. Not to say they won't/can't surpass him when I think they are perfectly cabable.

Here is what I hate though Bobcats. People saying something stupid like Wade > Kobe, or LBJ > Kobe. I hate equally the people who say Kobe > Jordan but for different reasons.

It's so premature in both Wade and Lebronze's career to say they are better than this veteran who is just getting into his prime, won scoring champ,, won 3 championships, and the list goes on.

It's like taking a dump on history. It was like when Stephon Marbury said, "Amare is better than KG, no contest."

Also Durvasa you have too much time on your hands . Plus according to your report Kobe almost beats out Wade and LeBron in all categories, no? Or am I mistaken.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Heat4Life:</div><div class="quote_post"> <font color=""Red"">(offensively) </font>Kobe is the most talented, guy can score in many ways, but Wade is the best player in the league at reading and beating defenses. Either him or Nash, but Wade is a more a threat to score.

The PG is supposed to be the guy who executes the coaches game plan, right? Wade can cut the middle man off. That little part of his game, which goes unnoticed, is the reason why he's at where he is today. Wade has yet to see any one player or team that can really baffle him. There's been a couple of times this season where he waived off a play Pat Riley wanted to run because he read the defense and knew exactly where to beat it. One of those times was the eventual game winning basket in a tight regular season game.

Even the Pistons and Mavericks stressed the importance of making Wade pass the ball, even as he was playing PG to bring it up, cuz they knew once he got the ball that the Heat were probably gonna score on that possesion. Without him getting the ball once our offense didn't run as smooth and usually lead to poor possesions or a turnover.</div>

Kobe is the best all around player in the nba. <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">"It took me 45 minutes to warm up for practice and games. It was crazy," he recalled. "It was very sore, you just played around it. I couldn't attack, put pressure on the defense the way I wanted to."</div> Kobe had a bad knee throught the season and was still able to hold his own against his oppostion. The best in the league at reading the defense in my oppinion is Reggie Miller, I mean Richard Hamilton. And if you want to talk about Wade being a PG, I don't see where these comparisons come about. Kobe is a SG while Wade is a PG.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Franchise4Ever:</div><div class="quote_post">
Also Durvasa you have too much time on your hands . Plus according to your report Kobe almost beats out Wade and LeBron in all categories, no? Or am I mistaken.</div>

The PER2 column in that table is PER after integrating the 82games stats. Based on that, top five players in order are LeBron, Wade, Kobe, Iverson, and Nowitzki. PERdiff column is just the difference between the modified PER (PER2) and the original PER rating.

 

Does PER measure how good the player plays defense? Does it show how many points they hold the player they are guarding to?

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Lakers4Life:</div><div class="quote_post">Kobe is the best all around player in the nba. </div>
I'd give that title to Kirilenko, but Kobe is probably the most well rounded at his position.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Laker_fan:</div><div class="quote_post">Does PER measure how good the player plays defense? Does it show how many points they hold the player they are guarding to?</div>

PER tells you no more than what can be found in the box scores.

This was the remark I was responding to, btw:
"Actually, Dirk/Lebron(flip flop for top spot in PER) and Kobe are ahead of Wade offensively (objectively speaking, from a PER pov)."

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Chutney:</div><div class="quote_post">I'd give that title to Kirilenko, but Kobe is probably the most well rounded at his position.</div>

I'd actually flip flop on that with AK47 being the most well rounded and Kobe being the best all around.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting shapecity:</div><div class="quote_post">Durvasa where did you get the PER2 data from?</div>

It's from 82games.com and basketball-reference.com. I collected all the 82games stats and basketball-reference.com stats from the last 4 seasons into a spread sheet a few months back.

 

I hate stats. I really do. It never tells the whole story...

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Trench:</div><div class="quote_post">I hate stats. I really do. It never tells the whole story...</div>

You know, science itself is based on statistical models that don't tell the whole story. We'd still be stuck in the middle ages if people concluded from this that quantifiable data is therefore useless.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Trench:</div><div class="quote_post">I hate stats. I really do. It never tells the whole story...</div>

I'd encourage you to read the following:

Using statistics in basketball: the bar is higher

He cites a post from another basketball board, which I'll quote here as well:

<div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">
"The reason to use stats in any field is because humans are poor at evaluating probability. We tend to see patterns where there aren't, overestimate the probability of low frequency events and, most importantly, have a tendency towards comfirmation bias -- looking for evidence that confirm our preexisting beliefs.

One of the things that's said in defense of stats in baseball is that you can't tell the difference between a .260 hitter and a .280 hitter by watching one game or one series. The difference amounts to one extra hit every 2 weeks. Similarly is there any way to tell just by watching whether Eddy Curry is more or less prone to turnovers than Yao Ming?

Similarly I think that one of the best uses of stats is to provoke questions and try to map out ways in which questions can be answered. How can we tell if a team is shooting 'too many' or 'too few' three-pointers? Do shot-blockers have an 'intimidation' effect? How valuable are 'scoring' point guards compared to 'traditional' point guards? Are specialists more or less valuable than generalists? How valuable is it to have guards who can rebound or big men who can pass? What separates a good shooter from a great shooter? Stats can't answer all of those questions but they can rule out some wrong answers that have intuitive appeal and focus attention on possibilities that are more likely to be correct."
</div>

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Franchise4Ever:</div><div class="quote_post">I'd actually flip flop on that with AK47 being the most well rounded and Kobe being the best all around.</div>
I wrote that kind of vaguely. I was using "all around" and "well rounded" in the same sense. Kobe's the best overall and most well rounded guard, but Kirilenko is the most well rounded out of all the players. So yea, we agree.

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Trench:</div><div class="quote_post">I hate stats. I really do. It never tells the whole story...</div>
The thing about stats is that they don't try to tell the whole story. I mean, there's no statistic that measures "best overall." But, usually they focus on specific aspects of a team/player. In this case, durvasa's using stats, pretty effectively, to measure a player's offensive ability, not overall worth. It is bound to have limitations, but if you don't expect a "magical" statistic that can measure and rank everything correctly, then there's no reason to hate them.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting durvasa:</div><div class="quote_post">PER tells you no more than what can be found in the box scores.

This was the remark I was responding to, btw:
"Actually, Dirk/Lebron(flip flop for top spot in PER) and Kobe are ahead of Wade offensively (objectively speaking, from a PER pov)."</div>

Yes I took the data from basketball-reference.com. Not every site has the same PER calculations, but generally rank similar. Kobe still plays better defense (and in the deeper conference) which would seem enough to make up a tiny difference in PER (by being ranked third).

BTW, why do you prefer those PER ratings? Just curious. It matters not to me, because in either case, I had Kobe ranked third in PER.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting durvasa:</div><div class="quote_post">I'd encourage you to read the following:

Using statistics in basketball: the bar is higher

He cites a post from another basketball board, which I'll quote here as well:</div>

I'll take a look Durvasa. Thanks for the link.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting huevonkiller:</div><div class="quote_post">Yes I took the data from basketball-reference.com. Not every site has the same PER calculations, but generally rank similar. Kobe still plays better defense (and in the deeper conference) which would seem enough to make up a tiny difference in PER (by being ranked third).

BTW, why do you prefer those PER ratings? Just curious. It matters not to me, because in either case, I had Kobe ranked third in PER.</div>

If you look at the standard formula for PER, certain estimates are made for some of the parameters. All I did was make those parameters more precise using the data at 82games.com. I'm not using a different version or formula for PER. I'm making it more precise.

If you're going to go by PER to compare their overall offensive capabilities, then you might as well try to make it as precise as possible.

For example, in PER, points scored via assisted field goals aren't credited as much as points scored via unassisted baskets. Because assist% typically isn't known for players from the conventional stats, it uses the team assist% instead. Using the actual percentage of a player's field goals that were assisted makes a big difference. If you take actuall assist% into count, Iverson's PER actually is higher than Nowitzki's.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting durvasa:</div><div class="quote_post">If you look at the standard formula for PER, certain estimates are made for some of the parameters. All I did was make those parameters more precise using the data at 82games.com. I'm not using a different version or formula for PER. I'm making it more precise.

If you're going to go by PER to compare their overall offensive capabilities, then you might as well try to make it as precise as possible.

For example, in PER, points scored via assisted field goals aren't credited as much as points scored via unassisted baskets. Because assist% typically isn't known for players from the conventional stats, it uses the team assist% instead. Using the actual percentage of a player's field goals that were assisted makes a big difference. If you take actuall assist% into count, Iverson's PER actually is higher than Nowitzki's.</div>

I have known people that use different formulas, which is why I mentioned it. Now, I never disputed that your new PER rankings weren't nice, just clarifying some details.