<div class="quote_poster">Rock4life Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">I'm all for it. That's how confident I am that Hayes isn't better than Howard. So count me in.......</div> First a consensus has to be reached between you and Durvasa on which stat(s) will be used to conclude who is have a greater net impact for the Rockets. Assuming Durvasa wants anything to do with this. lol
<div class="quote_poster">SkiptoMyLue11 Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">First a consensus has to be reached between you and Durvasa on which stat(s) will be used to conclude who is have a greater net impact for the Rockets. Assuming Durvasa wants anything to do with this. lol </div> Well, if he didn't I wouldn't blame him. Ppl can sit up here and dissect everything Rock4life says, but when you sit and watch the game you see most of what I say is actually true. So I definatley wouldn't be suprised if any of these Chuck Hayes fanatics don't want anything to do with this Count me in...........
<div class="quote_poster">Rock4life Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Well, if he didn't I wouldn't blame him. Ppl can sit up here and dissect everything Rock4life says, but when you sit and watch the game you see most of what I say is actually true. So I definatley wouldn't be suprised if any of these Chuck Hayes fanatics don't want anything to do with this Count me in...........</div> Well I know you're in, but what if it was decided that per 48 minutes statistics or PER was decided to be the way of measuring who was better in the categories (FG%, FT%, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, turnovers, fouls, and points) Would you still be in? How would you compare impact of the two players?
<div class="quote_poster">SkiptoMyLue11 Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Well I know you're in, but what if it was decided that per 48 minutes statistics or PER was decided to be the way of measuring who was better in the categories (FG%, FT%, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, turnovers, fouls, and points) Would you still be in? How would you compare impact of the two players?</div> Here's the problem. We don't see eye to eye on what are useful measurements of a player's productivity/value on a team. Rock4Life apparently thinks PPG & RPG is the best indicator. I have a different perspective. I'd rather look at PER, for a preliminary evaluation of their statistical production, and then look at other factors like how the team performs offensively and defensively when the player is on the court. My beef with Rock4Life, on this thread and others, isn't so much that he thinks Howard is a better player for us than Hayes. Locke has said essentially the same thing, and I never had much of a problem with it. It's his argument and the manner in which he engages opposing arguments which I have a problem with. Here's my prediction for the upcoming season (not a guarantee, a prediction). If I'm wrong, I'll acknowledge it. But I'm not saying "sorry" to anyone: <ul> [*]Hayes will average at least 2 more rebounds per 40 minutes played than Howard [*]Hayes's blocks/40minutes will at least double that of Howard's [*]Hayes will get more steals per 40 minutes played than Howard [*]Hayes will have a better TS% (scoring efficiency) [/list] And overall:<ul> [*][*]Hayes will end up with a higher PER than Howard [*]The Rockets, as a team, will play better defense (allow less points per possession) with Hayes on the floor than with Howard on the floor [/list] I'm fairly confident in the above predictions, assuming both players get at least 500 minutes on the season. If they're only getting garbage minutes, then their stats probably won't reflect how good/bad they really are.
<div class="quote_poster">durvasa Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Here's the problem. We don't see eye to eye on what are useful measurements of a player's productivity/value on a team. Rock4Life apparently thinks PPG & RPG is the best indicator. I have a different perspective. I'd rather look at PER, for a preliminary evaluation of their statistical production, and then look at other factors like how the team performs offensively and defensively when the player is on the court. My beef with Rock4Life, on this thread and others, isn't so much that he thinks Howard is a better player for us than Hayes. Locke has said essentially the same thing, and I never had much of a problem with it. It's his argument and the manner in which he engages opposing arguments which I have a problem with. Here's my prediction for the upcoming season (not a guarantee, a prediction). If I'm wrong, I'll acknowledge it. But I'm not saying "sorry" to anyone: <ul> [*]Hayes will average at least 2 more rebounds per 40 minutes played than Howard [*]Hayes's blocks/40minutes will at least double that of Howard's [*]Hayes will get more steals per 40 minutes played than Howard [*]Hayes will have a better TS% (scoring efficiency) [/list] And overall:<ul> [*][*]Hayes will end up with a higher PER than Howard [*]The Rockets, as a team, will play better defense (allow less points per possession) with Hayes on the floor than with Howard on the floor [/list] I'm fairly confident in the above predictions, assuming both players get at least 500 minutes on the season. If they're only getting garbage minutes, then their stats probably won't reflect how good/bad they really are.</div> LOL.....Thanks. I'd rather go off who has the bigger impact on the team. However you measure that, I don't know. As many stats you've thrown out, I STILL don't think any of that is gonna be the difference between winning or losing. Hayes can have the best stats in five minutes of play, that doesn't mean he's gonna be a difference maker. Howard has that ability. I expect Howard to have an overrall more productive year than Hayes.
<div class="quote_poster">Rock4life Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">LOL.....Thanks. I'd rather go off who has the bigger impact on the team. However you measure that, I don't know.</div> There are many ways to approximately measure it. <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">As many stats you've thrown out, I STILL don't think any of that is gonna be the difference between winning or losing.</div> That's a remarkable statement. So, nothing that happens in the boxscore has any impact on winning or losing? I must have misunderstood, because you can't really believe that. <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">Hayes can have the best stats in five minutes of play, that doesn't mean he's gonna be a difference maker. Howard has that ability. I expect Howard to have an overrall more productive year than Hayes.</div> What do you mean by that? You need to formulate it in some concrete terms. Otherwise, there's no way to verify it. You don't want to go by per-minute stats. Alright, but then the total productivity of the player will be based not simply by their level of play while they're on the court, but also on the amount of playing time they get (which is determined by coaching and by injuries). And what if Juwan sees less minutes than Chuck Hayes this season, despite being more productive per minute? Hayes's overall productivity might be more, but is he really the better player? I just want to ensure you don't have a double standard here. That's why I said if we want a decent comparison then they both have to play a sufficient number of minutes. Since they're both going to be backups, I imagine they'll play against similar level of competition, but if not we may want to try to adjust for that.
<div class="quote_poster">Rock4life Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Well, if he didn't I wouldn't blame him. Ppl can sit up here and dissect everything Rock4life says, but when you sit and watch the game you see most of what I say is actually true. So I definatley wouldn't be suprised if any of these Chuck Hayes fanatics don't want anything to do with this Count me in...........</div> I only just noticed that you said "Count me in" but never actually committed yourself to a benchmark for making the comparison. How convenient for you. No matter what happens this season, you'll always have an excuse.
<div class="quote_poster">durvasa Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Here's my prediction for the upcoming season (not a guarantee, a prediction). If I'm wrong, I'll acknowledge it. But I'm not saying "sorry" to anyone: <ul> [*]Hayes will average at least 2 more rebounds per 40 minutes played than Howard [*]Hayes's blocks/40minutes will at least double that of Howard's [*]Hayes will get more steals per 40 minutes played than Howard [*]Hayes will have a better TS% (scoring efficiency) [/list] And overall:<ul> [*][*]Hayes will end up with a higher PER than Howard [*]The Rockets, as a team, will play better defense (allow less points per possession) with Hayes on the floor than with Howard on the floor [/list] I'm fairly confident in the above predictions, assuming both players get at least 500 minutes on the season. If they're only getting garbage minutes, then their stats probably won't reflect how good/bad they really are.</div> It's very early, and since it would be unfair to compare Hayes's numbers to Juwan's at this point since Juwan hasn't played nearly as many minutes, I thought I'd compare what Hayes is doing this season to what Juwan last year. I think that's generous, btw, because Juwan's numbers would figure to go down a bit this season since that's been the pattern the last 3 years. <div class='codetop'>CODE</div><div class='codemain'><br/> Chuck HayesJuwan Howard (last season)<br/>Rebounds per 40 minutes:12.9 8.4 <br/>Blocks per 40 minutes:1.00.1<br/>Steals per 40 minutes:1.60.8<br/>TS% (scoring efficiency): 61.1%49.9%<br/>PER:15.4 12.5<br/><br/>Team Defense w/ player: 90.2 106.3<br/></div> If anything, early on it appears my predictions were too conservative. Here's a comparison of their per 40 minutes boxscore stats: <div class='codetop'>CODE</div><div class='codemain'><br/>MPG FGFGA FT FTAORBDRBTRBAST STL BLK TOPFPTS<br/>Chuck 20.75.2 8.7 1.31.65.27.712.9 1.0 1.6 1.0 2.6 7.4 11.6<br/>Juwan 31.76.2 13.52.43.02.65.88.41.8 0.8 0.1 2.1 3.7 14.8<br/></div> This is about as I expected. Hayes's foul rate has been much too high, but I expect that to go down eventually. His turnover rate is also unacceptably high, but that's mainly due to an uncharacteristic 5 turnover game in his second start. He hasn't turned it over more than once in any other game. And obviously I don't expect him to continue to convert 80% from the line. I do think the rebounds, steals, blocks, and FG% should remain about the same for him. Beyond these numbers, anyone with eyes can see how well the Rockets have been playing with Chuck Hayes on the court this season ... a continuation of what happened last year. Has he benefitted from playing mostly with Yao and Tracy? Of course. And I believe they have benefitted from having him on the court. He's always in the right place, and he does all "the little things." With him and Battier on the court, the Rockets defense has been suffocating.
For you to even bring that up so early in the season is beyond idiotic. Hayes has played well in his couple games, and Howard has played well in his limited mins. It's WAY to early to jump around and start celebrating. I stick by my assertion Hayes is not a starter in this league, and Howard is better. How bout you wait till the half way season mark to start gloating.
<div class="quote_poster">Rock4life Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">For you to even bring that up so early in the season is beyond idiotic. Hayes has played well in his couple games, and Howard has played well in his limited mins. It's WAY to early to jump around and start celebrating. I stick by my assertion Hayes is not a starter in this league, and Howard is better. How bout you wait till the half way season mark to start gloating.</div> Wow, someone is sensitive. What I said the other day: <div class="quote_poster">Quoting durvasa:</div><div class="quote_post"> One game, or even a handful of games, doesn't prove anything. Hayes is getting an opportunity to play now against the opposing starters, and so far (overall) he's done a pretty good job. He needs to quit fouling so much, and he needs to learn to play within his limits on offense (which he did against Memphis). I think we'll have a better idea of where Hayes stands after a few months. </div> For you to read my post as "celebratory" indicates you're starting to have some insecurities about your position. I explicitly said it's very early. So far, things are about as I expected, though Hayes needs to work on some other areas (fouls, turnovers). That's not gloating, it's stating stating the facts very early in the season. Things could turn by the midpoint of the season ... I'm not discounting that possibility. And if I turn out wrong, I'll acknowledge it. I don't expect you'll do the same, since you haven't actually made a prediction in concrete terms.
<div class="quote_poster">Rock4life Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">For you to even bring that up so early in the season is beyond idiotic. Hayes has played well in his couple games, and Howard has played well in his limited mins. It's WAY to early to jump around and start celebrating. I stick by my assertion Hayes is not a starter in this league, and Howard is better. How bout you wait till the half way season mark to start gloating.</div> I wouldn't wait. I recognized that Hayes was the better PF last season when he was on the floor. JVG has noticed that, probably convinced by Morey, so this season and he is giving the bulk of the PF minutes to Hayes. So far, Hayes has produced. But don't admit that you were wrong or anything. I don't want you to jinx Hayes or somethin.
<div class="quote_poster">durvasa Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">For you to read my post as "celebratory" indicates you're starting to have some insecurities about your position. I explicitly said it's very early. So far, things are about as I expected, though Hayes needs to work on some other areas (fouls, turnovers). That's not gloating, it's stating stating the facts very early in the season. Things could turn by the midpoint of the season ... I'm not discounting that possibility.</div> While Hayes has played good, the offense struggles when he's in the game. Note in the first half against Miami, we couldn't get a bucket. Hayes get's hurt, and we insert Howard in. He hits two crucial midrange shots and we go on a huge run. Not rocket science.........
<div class="quote_poster">Rock4life Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">While Hayes has played good, the offense struggles when he's in the game. Note in the first half against Miami, we couldn't get a bucket. Hayes get's hurt, and we insert Howard in. He hits two crucial midrange shots and we go on a huge run. Not rocket science.........</div> You only take the example from one game, what about the rest of the games? Hayes does a lot of things you don't seem to notice on offence. He sets up great screens to get the open man. Unlike Howard, who likes to loiter around the mid range area, Hayes cuts in. If hes open, he gets the pass and finishes. If hes not, hes set up for the offensive rebound. Heres a few stats (even though I know you hate them, stats don't lie). Rockets score an average of 109.9 per 100 possessions when Juwan Howard is on court, and 109 per 100 possesions when hes off. On the other hand, when Hayes is on the court, Rockets average 113.3 points per 100 poss compared to 106.2 points per 100 poss whe hes off. I dont know about you, but it seems to me that the rockets offense runs better when he is on the court. But...if you want to look individuall, Hayes averages 6.1 points in 20 minutes while Howard averages 2.3 points in 13 minutes. Here are the Levono stats which compares the point differentials when they are on and off the court. Here is the best combination IN THE NBA (according to Lenovo stats). 5 man combination: Rank 1. T. McGrady, R. Alston, S. Battier, M. Yao, C. Hayes. Rank 2. K. Thomas, S. Nash, S. Marion R. Bell, L. Barbosa. Rank 3. C. Webber, A. Iverson, K. Ollie, S. Dalembert, A. Iguodala. 4 man combination: Rank 1. T. McGrady, R. Alston, S. Battier, C. Hayes. Rank 2. T. McGrady, R. Alston, S. Battier, M. Yao. Rank 3. K. Thomas, S. Nash, S. Marion, L. Barbosa. 3 man combinations: Rank 1. T. McGrady, R. Alston, C. Hayes. Rank 2. S. Nash, S. Marion, L. Barbosa. Rank 3. R. ALston, S. Battier, M. Yao. 2 man combinations: Rank 1. R. Alston, C. Hayes. Rank 2. S. Nash, L. Barbosa. Rank 3. R. Alston, M. Yao Guess whos leads the 1 man combination? Rank 1. C. Hayes Rank 2. M. Yao Rank 3. R. Alston Of course, you probably shouldnt take theses stats too seriously as it is just an indicator, but seing Hayes at the top of the list is quite impressive. All this taken from http://www.nba.com/statistics/lenovo/lenovo.jsp .
<div class="quote_poster">Rock4life Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">While Hayes has played good, the offense struggles when he's in the game. Note in the first half against Miami, we couldn't get a bucket. Hayes get's hurt, and we insert Howard in. He hits two crucial midrange shots and we go on a huge run. Not rocket science.........</div> The Rockets offense "struggled" the most in the second quarter, when we scored only 17 points. That was when Juwan was in the game and did absolutely nothing (except allow two offensive rebounds, miss a shot, foul twice, ... he did help force a turnover though). On the season, the Rockets were scoring 113.3 points per 100 possessions with Chuck in the game, compared to 106.6 points per 100 possessions while he isn't the game. That ain't struggling. Nevermind that the defense has been about 18 points better with Chuck than without Chuck as well. But I'll give Juwan some credit .. he played alright in the fourth quarter when Chuck Hayes left. He got beat on the offensive boards a couple times and got burned by Antoine Walker one on one a couple times as well. But he hit a couple field goals, got a couple of assists, and grabbed four rebounds in the third and fourth quarters. For the game, Juwan ended up a +22 in +/-, leading the team. He had to be doing something right. With Chuck in the lineup, we've been solid both on offense and especially on defense to start the season. If Juwan's offensive producton can contribute to an improved offense while Chuck is out, hopefully that won't be cancelled out on the other end and on the boards. We'll see. For the team's sake, I hope you're right that we'll do well with Juwan getting increased minutes.
<div class="quote_poster">TmacGarnett Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">We now get to see how effective we are with juwan.</div> As far as individual stats, Hayes has been better than expected this season. In the first 7 games, playing 20 mpg, he's had a 16.5 PER (league average is 15.0). By comparison, Juwan's PER last season was 12.5, and the season before was 13.0. This season, it's a paltry 7.8 PER. Chuck's +/- impact has also been phenomenal -- best on the team. In fact, he's currently leading the league in team point differential while on the court. He's shooting 60% from the field, and is amongst the league leaders in rebound rate amongst players playing at least 20 minutes a game. Juwan has a lot to prove if he's going to earn his starting spot back.
Early in the season, both players have now played more than 100 minutes. It's a good point to get an update on how their production compares. Because Juwan hasn't played as many minutes per game, I'll be fair and look at what they did per minute (scaled to 40). Key <font size="1">TS%: scoring efficiency, proportional to points scored per scoring attempt (league average ~54%) PER: summarizes statistical production, per possession (league average 15) +/-: Rocket's point differential while player was on the court</font> <div class='codetop'>CODE</div><div class='codemain'><br/>min MPG PTS REB AST TS% STL BLK TOPFPER +/-<br/>Chuck 143 20.412.012.90.8 63.1% 1.4 0.8 2.2 6.7 16.4+67<br/>Juwan 122 15.38.2 7.9 2.2 47.5% 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.3 9.6 -8<br/></div> *Ahem* Draw your own conclusions from this data. Next update will come when they've both played at least 200 minutes.
Actually, Juwan has played great in the little minutes he's got. He's rebounded, defended, and hit his open shots. For some reason, he's not getting much play in the 4th quarter. I think him and JVG might have an agreement that he's gonna be traded as soon as a good deal come by.
