I thought we all agree that Hayes is better than Juwan after long break on this thread? I guess I'm wrong because Juwan did well in Cleveland. I really mean it, he did incredibly well.. Pulling down 10+ rebounds. Hopefully he can do that in consistently...
Last year MOSTLY only hardcore kentucky fans and fans knowledgable in advanced statisitical metrics thought Hayes was a player worth keepin much less start ahead of Juwan. But as the sample size continues to grow and the evidence continues to build its becoming more and more clear, Hayes is a gem. For all his flaws he knows how to help his team win. I still have higher hopes for Juwan though, that he can play more minutes and bring consistant production.
I think the numbers are quite skewed last season since Juwan played a lot of big minutes while Tmac and Yao were both hurt. Also, Juwan's presence means Yao will score less because Juwan will actually be able to score himself. Numbers aside, I think Hayes is an important part of this team. Offense isn't everything and just look at how many times Hayes has netted an offensive board to gain the Rox another possession. On a team that takes as many 3's as the Rockets, they need someone who is going to track down long offensive rebounds, someone who will set screens and dive for loose balls. While Juwan has his place on the team (2nd unit scoring), he's not the best fit for the 1st unit.
Rock4life, you fail to mention however that Chuck Hayes had 12 rebounds against Cleveland. Certainly Howard's one more rebound doesn't give him leverage to regain his starting job?
<div class="quote_poster">dexxa Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">looks like mutombo knocked some shooting into tmac</div> Lol I was just going to say that.
<div class="quote_poster">Locke Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Rock4life, you fail to mention however that Chuck Hayes had 12 rebounds against Cleveland. Certainly Howard's one more rebound doesn't give him leverage to regain his starting job?</div> Juwan also had 3 more missed field goals and 2 more turnovers. For the game, they both had nearly identical game score ratings (metric for measuring a player's statistical contribution in a game). Further, Chuck's defense was better, as usual, which helps explain the disparity in the +/- for the game (+21 for Chuck, 0 for Juwan).
<div class="quote_poster">Umair Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">13 rebounds for Chuck already. Rock4life, accept it that you're wrong. </div> Wrong about what? I STILL believe Howard is the better overrall player. Hayes had 13rebs, but he got his shot blocked about 3 or 4 times tonight. His lack of offense is going to become a burden on us at some point. On the other hand, Howard had a double-double which means he rebounded AND scored points. What a luxury <div class="quote_poster">durvasa Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Hilarious. You disappear for weeks when Juwan isn't doing a damn thing, and now that he's finally contributing you decide to chime in. </div> Disappear? Have you not been reading my posts. I stated how well Juwan Howard was playin in a thread earlier today and yesterday, i think you even responded to one of them. Did you forget?
<div class="quote_poster">durvasa Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Juwan also had 3 more missed field goals and 2 more turnovers. For the game, they both had nearly identical game score ratings (metric for measuring a player's statistical contribution in a game). Further, Chuck's defense was better, as usual, which helps explain the disparity in the +/- for the game (+21 for Chuck, 0 for Juwan).</div> Chucks lack of offense is gonna be a burden on this team. He gets his shot swatted WAY too frequently. Tonight, he got blocked 4 times, and violently bricked too free throws. If that's who you want starting down the stretch of the season, i'm betting on Howard. NOTE:If Hayes plays with Yao & Tmac on the court, and Howard comes in with the 2nd unit isn't that gonna affect his +/- or are you purposley not mentioning that.
Overall Hayes is a better contributor to what our team needs right now. He rebounds and outhustles people, he does the dirty work, and he isnt afraid to guard anyone. This is the kind of guy we need by Yao. A Hard Worker who is still capable of cleaning up the trash. I'm not saying Juwan sucks, but I will say that Hayes is the better fit between those as of right now and I predict for the rest of the season. Now stop attacking each other. It's not nice xP
<div class="quote_poster">Rock4life Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Chucks lack of offense is gonna be a burden on this team. He gets his shot swatted WAY too frequently. Tonight, he got blocked 4 times, and violently bricked too free throws. If that's who you want starting down the stretch of the season, i'm betting on Howard. </div> Great. We'll see how it turns out. So far, you've been "violently" wrong. <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">NOTE:If Hayes plays with Yao & Tmac on the court, and Howard comes in with the 2nd unit isn't that gonna affect his +/- or are you purposley not mentioning that.</div> Juwan's getting plenty of run with Yao and McGrady in the second and fourth quarters, and you know it. And even if Juwan isn't playing proportionately as many minutes with the reset of the starters, isn't it also the case that he's facing the opposing teams reserves more often? Or are you purposely not mentioning that? Before this last game, here were the top 5 lineups (in minutes played) that Juwan was a part of: <div class='codetop'>CODE</div><div class='codemain'><br/> Lineup Min Off Def +/- <br/>Alston-McGrady-Battier-Howard-Yao 63127 110 +17 <br/>Head-Snyder-Battier-Howard-Yao153333+0<br/>Alston-Head-Battier-Howard-Yao122215+7<br/>Head-Spanoulis-Battier-Howard-Yao 121229-17 <br/>Alston-Snyder-McGrady-Howard-Mutombo112122-1<br/>...<br/>Overall 240 420 447 -27<br/></div> For most of the miscellaneous lineups he's been on outside of the top 5, the team has been outscored. When he's specifically playing with the rest of the starters, we've done pretty well overall -- +17 in 63 minutes, or about +13 per 48 minutes. Now, let's look at Chuck's lineups in more detail: <div class='codetop'>CODE</div><div class='codemain'><br/> Lineup Min Off Def +/-<br/>Alston-McGrady-Battier-Hayes-Yao141 293 210 +83<br/>Alston-Head-McGrady-Battier-Hayes 164031+9<br/>Alston-McGrady-Battier-Hayes-Mutombo152834-6<br/>Alston-Head-McGrady-Hayes-Mutombo 7 2111+10<br/>...<br/>Overall 260 520 426 +94<br/></div> You can see that overall, we've outscored the opponent by a ton when Chuck has been on the court. And specifically, when Chuck's with the rest of the starters we are +83 in 141 minutes, which amounts to an awesome +28 per 48 minutes. That's number one. Next, as I've posted earlier in the thread: <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">If you think the reason for this is simply that Chuck gets to play in the starting lineup, keep in mind that Juwan's +/- was -25 in the four games he started, including negative in three of the four.</div> Whoops!
<div class="quote_poster">DynastYWarrioR6 Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Overall Hayes is a better contributor to what our team needs right now. He rebounds and outhustles people, he does the dirty work, and he isnt afraid to guard anyone. This is the kind of guy we need by Yao. A Hard Worker who is still capable of cleaning up the trash. I'm not saying Juwan sucks, but I will say that Hayes is the better fit between those as of right now and I predict for the rest of the season. Now stop attacking each other. It's not nice xP</div> I can respect ur opinion, but I disagree. While Hayes is getting the majority of the mins, Howard is overrall the better person for this team. Short term, Hayes is playing good. But the better teams are gonna expose his lack of offensive productivitiy sooner of later. I'm sure some of u are gonna make excuses, but it's bound to happen. Howard can do everything Hayes is doing and he can hit a jumper and make free throws.
<div class="quote_poster">Rock4life Wrote</div><div class="quote_post"> Short term, Hayes is playing good. </div> We have a breakthrough! At least you're not completely dillusional. You still don't recognize that Hayes is a vastly better defender than Juwan, even though we give up far fewer points when he's on the court. Beyond those intangibles, Hayes is actually scoring more per minute than Juwan so far this season (which was unexpected) and at a significantly higher efficiency (that's expected). Plus his rebounding rate is much higher, and he gets more blocks, steals, charges. The only area which Juwan provides a real advantage is you can count on him to hit his free throws. His jumper has been pitiful for the most part (he finally hit a few tonight), and he's not going to create good shots for you in post ups or ISOs, but on the rare occasions he gets to the line he'll nail them. Sorry, but overall Chuck's been outperforming Juwan so far. Even if you still want to maintain that Juwan will end up outperforming him by the end of the season, you have to admit that in the early going Chuck has been playing better for us. <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">But the better teams are gonna expose his lack of offensive productivitiy sooner of later. I'm sure some of u are gonna make excuses, but it's bound to happen. Howard can do everything Hayes is doing and he can hit a jumper and make free throws.</div> Let's be clear on what you say "is bound to happen." Eventually, Chuck Hayes is going to have a bad game? Duh, that's bound to happen with any player over the course of an entire season. You think Juwan hasn't had his share of games where he's missed several shots in a fourth quarter that cost his team the game? Those things happen. So, be explicit. What exactly do you think will happen with Chuck? You think his rebounding rate will dip below Juwan's (if so, I'll tell you right now that ain't happening). You think his individual stats overall (e.g. PER) will fall below Juwan's? You think the +/- numbers for Chuck will fall below Juwan's eventually? Come on. Show some backbone and make a real prediction. Not this wishy-washy "Chuck is going to be exposed at some point in the season" stuff.
<div class="quote_poster">durvasa Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Great. We'll see how it turns out. So far, you've been "violently" wrong.</div> Hayes is playing good, but so is Howard. If anything, I'd say ur WRONG about Howards rebounding & defense. He's rebounding good and now that his offense is picking up, i'm sure his mins will also. I expect for Hayes's productivity to go down as the season picks up, especially against the better teams. Howard is the overrall better player, and i stick by that. BTW, didn't you say Hayes worked on his free throw shooting this offseason? <div class="quote_poster">durvasa Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Juwan's getting plenty of run with Yao and McGrady in the second and fourth quarters, and you know it. And even if Juwan isn't playing proportionately as many minutes with the reset of the starters, isn't it also the case that he's facing the opposing teams reserves more often? Or are you purposely not mentioning that?</div> I like the way you completley danced around my question and then flipped and asked me the same question First off, he isn't "gettin plenty run" because he isn't playing that many minutes. But the time he's on the court, he's still rebounding the basketball, something YOU said he couldn't do. Hayes is rebounding, but so is Howard. Givin the mins and opportunity to start over a significant number of games, I believe Howard can do everything Hayes is doing AND MORE. Hayes's still a liability on offense until he can stop gettin SWATTED at the damn rim. <div class="quote_poster">durvasa Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Before this last game, here were the top 5 lineups (in minutes played) that Juwan was a part of: <div class='codetop'>CODE</div><div class='codemain'><br/> Lineup Min Off Def +/- <br/>Alston-McGrady-Battier-Howard-Yao 63127 110 +17 <br/>Head-Snyder-Battier-Howard-Yao153333+0<br/>Alston-Head-Battier-Howard-Yao122215+7<br/>Head-Spanoulis-Battier-Howard-Yao 121229-17 <br/>Alston-Snyder-McGrady-Howard-Mutombo112122-1<br/>...<br/>Overall 240 420 447 -27<br/></div> For most of the miscellaneous lineups he's been on outside of the top 5, the team has been outscored. When he's specifically playing with the rest of the starters, we've done pretty well overall -- +17 in 63 minutes, or about +13 per 48 minutes. Now, let's look at Chuck's lineups in more detail: <div class='codetop'>CODE</div><div class='codemain'><br/> Lineup Min Off Def +/-<br/>Alston-McGrady-Battier-Hayes-Yao141 293 210 +83<br/>Alston-Head-McGrady-Battier-Hayes 164031+9<br/>Alston-McGrady-Battier-Hayes-Mutombo152834-6<br/>Alston-Head-McGrady-Hayes-Mutombo 7 2111+10<br/>...<br/>Overall 260 520 426 +94<br/></div> You can see that overall, we've outscored the opponent by a ton when Chuck has been on the court. And specifically, when Chuck's with the rest of the starters we are +83 in 141 minutes, which amounts to an awesome +28 per 48 minutes</div> But ya see, he's gettin the bulk of his minutes with Yao and Tmac on the court. So OBCOURSE his +/- is gonna be higher. If he comes in with Mutumbo, Head, and Spanoulis then Hayes productivity drops dramatically. You know this.........
Hayes with Alston/McGrady/Battier/Yao: +28.25 per 48 minutes. Howard with Alston/McGrady/Battier/Yao +12.95 per 48 minutes. The only thing I think could misrepresent the data is that Hayes starts the game with a fresher Yao, while Howard gets a more tired Yao and Yao starts to decline as the game goes on, but I don't know if that would make a +15 difference per 48 minutes.
<div class="quote_poster">Rock4life Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Hayes is playing good, but so is Howard. If anything, I'd say ur WRONG about Howards rebounding & defense. He's rebounding good and now that his offense is picking up, i'm sure his mins will also. I expect for Hayes's productivity to go down as the season picks up, especially against the better teams. Howard is the overrall better player, and i stick by that. BTW, didn't you say Hayes worked on his free throw shooting this offseason?</div> Juwan has been rebounding much better the past week or so. His rebounding rate on the season still lags behind Chuck by a significant margin. As for defense ... no, Juwan is not a good defender. I'm not going to say he "sucks" at defense. He's better than Padgett or Novak. But he's not close to being as effective on the defensive end as Chuck. <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">I like the way you completley danced around my question and then flipped and asked me the same question First off, he isn't "gettin plenty run" because he isn't playing that many minutes. But the time he's on the court, he's still rebounding the basketball, something YOU said he couldn't do. Hayes is rebounding, but so is Howard.</div> Juwan has played 26% his minutes alongside the rest of the starters. When he hasn't played alongside the rest of the starters (Alston-Battier-McGrady-Yao), the Rockets are -44 in 177 minutes with him on the court. That's really bad. Chuck has benefitted from playing 54% of his minutes alongside the rest of the starters. But when he's not playing with the starting lineup, we are still +10 in 119 minutes with him on the court. So, Chuck is more effective with the starters than Juwan. But he's also more effective when he's not playing with the starters compared to Juwan. And I never said Juwan couldn't rebound. I said he doesn't rebound as well as Chuck. And he doesn't. "Hayes is rebounding, but so is Howard" Gimme a break. The fact is Juwan grabs 11.7% of the boards off the offensive glass, and 18.2% of the boards off the defensive glass. Those are solid rebounding numbers which happen to be the best of his career. What's Chuck Hayes doing? He's grabbing 15.1% of the boards off the offensive glass, and 20.8% of the boards off the defensive glass. On the season, Chuck is getting us 7.4 boards a game in 22 minutes, and Juwan is getting 4.7 boards in 17 minutes. Juwan has rebounded well, Chuck has rebounded better. <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">Givin the mins and opportunity to start over a significant number of games, I believe Howard can do everything Hayes is doing AND MORE. Hayes's still a liability on offense until he can stop gettin SWATTED at the damn rim. </div> On the season, Chuck has gotten 7% of his shots blocked, 6% of his inside shots blocked. Last season, Juwan got 7% of his shots blocked as well, including 14% of his inside shots blocked. Early this season, Juwan's gotten 6% of his shots blocked and 12% of his inside shots blocked. Next. <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">But ya see, he's gettin the bulk of his minutes with Yao and Tmac on the court. So OBCOURSE his +/- is gonna be higher. If he comes in with Mutumbo, Head, and Spanoulis then Hayes productivity drops dramatically. You know this.........</div> As I've shown, he's more effective with Yao and Tracy than Juwan has been with them, in terms of the +/-. And that's what matters ... who should be starting and who should be getting the bulk of the minutes when our stars on the court. All along, you've said that Chuck would be a liability with our stars and hurt the team. So far, you've been wrong. Extraordinarily wrong. Violently wrong. Embarassingly wrong. Check out NBA.com's +/- leaderboard. Who's there near the top? It's Chuck Hayes!
Sure is a lot of fracas going on about Chuck Hayes and Juwan Howard. I think it's worth keeping in mind that the only thing you can predict across the board for any basketball player is that they'll get worse as they get old. Maybe worse isn't the right word, really... I'm not saying Juwan Howard is completely incapable, nor that Chuck Hayes is a god (although he certainly was crashing the boards tonight...), but there has to be a predicted decline in Howard's game. Really, Howard playing a backup role or limited minutes reduces the wear on his aging body, and therefore, he can be more effective in those situations where you do use him. Aging NBA players can often extend their careers by limiting their minutes. Michael Finley, Robert Horry, Clifford Robinson, etc. are all players who would be a very great stretch to be NBA starters at this point, but they're still valuable to their teams. The ultimate example of a star becoming an excellent supporting player is Reggie Miller, who was considered the best guard the Pacers had even at 38 because he was smart about how he used his body. Just cause Hayes is getting more minutes doesn't mean Juwan will crumble into dust. He'll still get his chances if he plays well, and a veteran backup at the 4/5 is a very worthwhile thing to have.
<div class="quote_poster">Rock4life Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">I can respect ur opinion, but I disagree. While Hayes is getting the majority of the mins, Howard is overrall the better person for this team. Short term, Hayes is playing good. But the better teams are gonna expose his lack of offensive productivitiy sooner of later. I'm sure some of u are gonna make excuses, but it's bound to happen. Howard can do everything Hayes is doing and he can hit a jumper and make free throws.</div> Lack of offensive productivity? What are you smoking? Just because he can not hit jumpers (your beloved J.Ho can't even knock them down) and has a lower ft percentage, doesnt mean his a lack of offense. Apparently you havent been watching too many Rockets game. He is a great finisher. Even though I am aware of his capabilities, it still amazes me how fast and how easilty he puts up the ball into the basket after he gets that pass inside. You do realize offensive boards is part of offensive capabilities too. Here is an article showing the best 25 on/off rating, and guess whos on that list. Chuck Hayes. On that same article it shows the worst 25 in the league....and Juwan Howards on that list. This rating essentially looks at point differentials comparing when they are on court to when they are off court. http://www.nbcsports.com/nba/501280/detail.html
<div class="quote_poster">durvasa Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">As I've shown, he's more effective with Yao and Tracy than Juwan has been with them, in terms of the +/-. And that's what matters ... who should be starting and who should be getting the bulk of the minutes when our stars on the court. All along, you've said that Chuck would be a liability with our stars and hurt the team. So far, you've been wrong. Extraordinarily wrong. Violently wrong. Embarassingly wrong. </div> SO FAR.....but I don't do hypotheticals
<div class="quote_poster">Montaman Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Sure is a lot of fracas going on about Chuck Hayes and Juwan Howard. I think it's worth keeping in mind that the only thing you can predict across the board for any basketball player is that they'll get worse as they get old. Maybe worse isn't the right word, really... I'm not saying Juwan Howard is completely incapable, nor that Chuck Hayes is a god (although he certainly was crashing the boards tonight...), but there has to be a predicted decline in Howard's game. Really, Howard playing a backup role or limited minutes reduces the wear on his aging body, and therefore, he can be more effective in those situations where you do use him. Aging NBA players can often extend their careers by limiting their minutes. Michael Finley, Robert Horry, Clifford Robinson, etc. are all players who would be a very great stretch to be NBA starters at this point, but they're still valuable to their teams. The ultimate example of a star becoming an excellent supporting player is Reggie Miller, who was considered the best guard the Pacers had even at 38 because he was smart about how he used his body. Just cause Hayes is getting more minutes doesn't mean Juwan will crumble into dust. He'll still get his chances if he plays well, and a veteran backup at the 4/5 is a very worthwhile thing to have.</div> Great post. I said all along last season and during the summer that we have to expect Juwan's productivity to decline (that's been the pattern for him the past few years, actually). At the same time, Chuck was very good playing 10-15 minutes a game last year as a rookie who joined the team in the middle of the season. It only made sense to increase his minutes while decreasing Juwan's. Good to see Juwan is getting out of his funk. To be at our best, we need him to be productive off the bench. Looks like the competition between Juwan and Chuck will be good for both players, and consequentially good for the team.
