Predict Player Stats for Season

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets' started by durvasa, Oct 30, 2006.

  1. durvasa

    durvasa JBB Rockets Fan

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    Post your predictions for the Rockets players this season. Be as detailed or undetailed as you like. Try to keep it realistic, though, and consider what you expect the rotation to be. Remember some of the bench players may not play every game, so the numbers don't have to add up exactly to the team totals.


    Starters

    Yao - 35 mpg, 22 ppg, 11 rpg, 2 apg
    Battier - 38 mpg, 11 ppg, 7 rpg, 2.5 apg
    McGrady - 37 mpg, 23 ppg, 6 rpg, 6 apg
    Snyder - 25 mpg, 8.5 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 1.5 apg
    Alston - 35 mpg, 10 ppg, 4 rpg, 6 apg

    Bench

    Wells - 28 mpg, 10 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2 apg
    Head - 19 mpg, 6.5 ppg, 2 apg, 2.5 apg
    Novak - 12 mpg, 3.5 ppg, 2 rpg, 0.5 apg
    Hayes* - 14 mpg, 3 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 0.2 apg
    Howard* - 10 mpg, 3 ppg, 2 rpg, 0.4 apg
    Mutombo* - 8 mpg, 1.5 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 0 apg
    Spanoulis - 6 mpg, 2 ppg, 0.5 rpg, 1 apg

    * backup center by committee
     
  2. TmacGarnett

    TmacGarnett JBB JustBBall Member

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    Durvasa, as much as I hate going against you in stats. You have to give Novak more than 3.5 points in 12 minutes of action.

    Vspan is backup point in my opinion so he gets at least 10 mpg
     
  3. durvasa

    durvasa JBB Rockets Fan

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    <div class="quote_poster">TmacGarnett Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Durvasa, as much as I hate going against you in stats. You have to give Novak more than 3.5 points in 12 minutes of action. </div>

    I think 12 minutes per game is about right for him. So it's matter of figuring out how much he might score in the Rockets offense in those 12 minutes.

    Going by the preseason, he averaged nearly 20 points per 40 minutes played, which would come out to 6 points per 12 minutes played. But he also scored at a ridiculous efficiency -- 80 TS%. As amazing as he is as a shooter, there's no way he's going to maintain that. The very best shooters in the game might score with 60-65 TS% efficiency. So, assuming he gets the same number of scoring attempts per minute and scores at 60 TS%, that would drop his average to 4.5 points per 12 minutes played. Van Gundy has said that Novak will likely not get the same number of looks in the regular season as he did in the preseason because there will be more focus on scouting and the defenses will be better. If his rate of scoring attempts drop by, say, 25% in the regular season versus preseason, then his scoring will dip down to around 3.5 ppg.

    Novak doesn't create shots for himself ... he'll be purely relying on his teammates to get him open looks. Let's not go overboard in our expectations.
     
  4. Mr. J

    Mr. J Triple Up

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    Do you really expect the Rockets to average 104 points per game?
     
  5. og15

    og15 JBB *********

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    ^
    I think he's factoring in the fact that some guys will miss games, and some of the lower guys on the roster will have DNP's etc, so the minutes and PPG aren't going to be like that over all 82 games.
     
  6. durvasa

    durvasa JBB Rockets Fan

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    <div class="quote_poster">og15 Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">^
    I think he's factoring in the fact that some guys will miss games, and some of the lower guys on the roster will have DNP's etc, so the minutes and PPG aren't going to be like that over all 82 games.</div>

    Yep. Also, games missed to injuries. In fact, if you sum up all the PPG averages for the top 12 players in minutes played last year, it comes out to 125.
     
  7. Trip

    Trip 2000000000000000000000000

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    Starters

    Yao - 36 mpg, 20 ppg, 11 rpg, 2 apg
    Battier - 35 mpg, 10 ppg, 6 rpg, 3 apg
    McGrady - 40 mpg, 26 ppg, 7 rpg, 5 apg
    Snyder - 22 mpg, 7 ppg, 3 rpg, 2 apg
    Alston - 32 mpg, 12 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 6.5 apg

    Bench

    Wells - 27 mpg, 13 ppg, 5 rpg, 1.5 apg
    Head - 20 mpg, 7.5 ppg, 2 rpg, 2 apg
    Novak - 10 mpg, 3 ppg, 2 rpg, 0.5 apg
    Hayes - 13 mpg, 3.5 ppg, 5 rpg, 0.2 apg
    Howard - 10 mpg, 5 ppg, 2 rpg, 0.4 apg
    Mutombo - 11 mpg, 2 ppg, 3 rpg, 0.3 apg
    Spanoulis - 12 mpg, 4.5 ppg, 1 rpg, 1.5 apg

    I believe in Spanoulis, lol.
     
  8. umair

    umair "Never underestimate the heart of a champion."

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    Starters

    Yao - 35 mpg, 21 ppg, 11 rpg, 2 apg
    Battier - 38 mpg, 10 ppg, 6 rpg, 2.5 apg
    McGrady - 37 mpg, 24 ppg, 6 rpg, 4 apg
    Snyder - 25 mpg, 8.5 ppg, 4 rpg, 1.3 apg
    Alston - 35 mpg, 10 ppg, 3 rpg, 7 apg

    Bench

    Wells - 28 mpg, 11 ppg, 5 rpg, 2 apg
    Head - 19 mpg, 6.5 ppg, 2 apg, 2.5 apg
    Novak - 12 mpg, 3.5 ppg, 2 rpg, 0.5 apg
    Hayes - 14 mpg, 3 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 0.2 apg
    Howard - 10 mpg, 3 ppg, 2 rpg, 0.4 apg
    Mutombo - 8 mpg, 1.5 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 0 apg
    Spanoulis - 6 mpg, 2 ppg, 0.5 rpg, 1 apg

    <div class="quote_poster">MrJ Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Do you really expect the Rockets to average 104 points per game?</div>


    I think they can. We have players like Battier, Wells, Novak, Head, and Alston who can about put up 10 ppg. And tmac and yao can go for about 20+ a game.
     
  9. Johnny33

    Johnny33 JBB JustBBall Member

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    Yao - 34 mpg, 22 ppg, 10.5 rpg, 2 apg
    Battier - 37 mpg, 11.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 3.5 apg
    McGrady - 35 mpg, 23 ppg, 6 rpg, 6.5 apg (more rest for T-Mac during the regular season)
    Snyder - 18 mpg, 6 ppg, 2 rpg, 2 apg
    Alston - 28 mpg, 11 ppg, 3 rpg, 6 apg

    Bench

    Wells - 25 mpg, 12 ppg, 5 rpg, 2 apg (1st sub off bench for McGrady/T-Mac)
    Sura - 16 mpg, 6.5 ppg, 3 rpg, 3 apg (I believe he'll be back! But he won't play back-2-backs)
    Head - 14 mpg, 7 ppg, 1.5 rpg, 2 apg
    Novak - 10 mpg, 4.5 ppg, 2 rpg, < 0.5 apg
    Padgett - 6 mpg, 2.5 ppg, 1.5 rpg, < 0.5 spg
    Hayes - 12 mpg, 3 ppg, 5.5 rpg, < 0.5 apg
    Howard - 16 mpg, 6 ppg, 3.5 rpg, < 0.5 apg (will play a lot of backup C, backup PF)
    Mutombo - 8 mpg, 1 ppg, 3 rpg, <0.5 apg, 1 bpg (might get a lot of DNP-CD's depending on the situation)
    Spanoulis - 6 mpg, 3 ppg, 1 rpg, 1.5 apg (not going to play a lot, this is going to be a learning year for V-Span)

    Yes that's 119 ppg but not everyone will play every game.. I'm thinking the Rox will avg 102 ppg this season.
     

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