Biedrins', Ellis' impact play might be costly to Warriors

<div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">The downside to Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins leading the upstart warriors is this: The more points Ellis scores and the more shots Biedrins blocks, the more money Golden State is going to have to spend to keep them.

And that's not going to be easy for a team already dancing around the luxury tax. The Warriors have hefty deals in place with Baron Davis, Jason Richardson, Mike Dunleavy, Troy Murphy and Adonal Foyle -- almost all of whom have had less impact than Ellis, who is making the league minimum, or Biedrins, who is still locked into his rookie pay scale.

Toss in Mickael Pietrus, another young player thriving under coach Don Nelson, and three of the Warriors' biggest contributors this season are three of their lowest paid players.

Here's a look at their respective contract situations, in order of expiring deals:

PIETRUS: The fourth-year forward will become a restricted free agent at season's end after vice-president Chris Mullin bucked his trend of giving out rookie contract extensions to all three of his previously eligible players.

The non-move made sense for both sides. Pietrus was coming off a poor season and had little bargaining power. Meanwhile Mullin had already committed $173 million toward locking up Richardson, Murphy and Dunleavy to long-term deals.

By not extending Pietrus, the Warriors enjoy a flexibility with Pietrus they never had with the other three.

They can move him before the trade deadline without any contract restrictions. They can move him in a sign-and-trade move this summer. Or they can keep him by matching any offer he receives, and it figures to be a so-so market for swingmen types unless New Jersey's Vince Carter and Seattle's Rashard Lewis opt out of their deals.

BIEDRINS: Biedrins is under contract through next season, but unlike Pietrus, the Warriors will almost certainly try to extend his rookie deal before the Oct. 31, 2007, deadline.

It's going to be costly. While the third-year center is slotted into a $2.6 million salary for 2007-08, the going rate for decent big men seems to be at least $10 million a year nowadays.

This summer alone, Denver's Nene got a six-year, $60 million deal despite missing all but one game last season with a torn anterior cruciate ligament. Clippers center Chris Kaman had a breakthrough season and cashed in with a five-year, $52 million extension.

The good news: If Biedrins signs an extension, it won't kick in until the 2008-09 season, so the Warriors have ample time to shed salary.

ELLIS: Those worried about another Gilbert Arenas scenario can relax.

After the salary-capped Warriors couldn't match the big-money deals Arenas commanded in 2003, the league stepped in with the so-called Gilbert Arenas rule, which essentially put a limit on how much teams could offer players who had less than two years experience (and therefore only partial Bird Rights).

The Warriors, however, sidestepped that altogether by signing Ellis to a three-year contract when they drafted him in the second round in 2005. It pays him $664,000 this season and $770,000 next. That means they'll have Ellis' Bird Rights when his deal expires after next season.

Though Ellis will be free to sign with any team, the Warriors will be free to pay him whatever they want -- up to the league maximum -- to keep him. </div>


http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?...SPGDPMNGQM1.DTL

 

Hmm.. that doesn't sound as bad as I've been thinking it is. I didn't know GS could sign Beans to an extension this year that doesn't kick in until 2008-2009. That's pretty sweet (assuming he stays consistent).

 

Yeah. Even though we extend Biedrins this year, we still get a discount amount for the next year. That's why I really want to lock him up this year (assuming that he stays constant), even though it really doesn't matter much, whether we resign him this year or next year. After this season, he may not quite worth max, and we may be able to resign him like 12 mils per year. But the way he is improving, there is a very good chance that he will commend max contract. Of course, if Warriors think Monta is a better for the club than Biedrins, we shouldn't resign him after this season.

For Pietrus' case, I just don't see him being extended, and I think other teams know that. If we are lucky enough, Pietrus may sign for qualifying offer, so that we can keep him for the 5th year, but after that he becomes unrestricted FA...

 

Good points. I think, due to the fact that GS has been starving for a legit big man for like 10 years, Beans has to be the #1 priority. If he gets away, we could be spending another 10 years trying to find the next good center for this team. Even though Ellis is awesome, the guard position is just easier to replace. Of course, I hope we can sign both!

 

Lets ask a hypothetical question...

Would yall rather have a Gilbert Arenas or Yao prior to this year. That is the peak I think both of these players could possibly become...

 

<div class="quote_poster">Warriorfansnc93 Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Lets ask a hypothetical question...

Would yall rather have a Gilbert Arenas or Yao prior to this year. That is the peak I think both of these players could possibly become...</div>

Yao.

Anyway, we're going to keep both. Cause if we don't, Cohan might wake up dead (get it? ).

A good center is harder to find, plus we got Baron Davis. If we let Beans go we have Baron and Ellis and no center. It'd be better to have Baron and Beans. But even better to keep both. Which will happen because of reason stated above.

 

<div class="quote_poster">AnimeFANatic Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Yao.

Anyway, we're going to keep both. Cause if we don't, Cohan might wake up dead (get it? ).

A good center is harder to find, plus we got Baron Davis. If we let Beans go we have Baron and Ellis and no center. It'd be better to have Baron and Beans. But even better to keep both. Which will happen because of reason stated above.</div>



I think we would get rid of Baron if needed in order to have the cap space to afford both. I think by then Baron's contract may be close to expiring...

 

Well-if you thought we might want to deal for your choice of $20 mill a year "stars" this sort of highlights the trouble with that.

That Mullin was not lowballing Dunleavy tells me that Cohen HAS agreed to SOME Lux Tax,for a few years. We MAY sacrafice a pick to ship Foyle. We may skimp a bit,and let Barnes + Zarko get away. We did NOT buy out Monty- D Brown,C Taft, A Owens to go frugal. Mullin-Nellie-Cohen want to GO for it.
Nellie has accelerated the development of young guys,he's patching up the games of the "mid-20's" core. He's going to work some more magic,including turning Ike into a star.

We have a 14 man roster-and any one of the 14 can be an asset when needed. In another month-those 14 will each be better players than they are today. They also will be a more unified team. Nellie-in addition will have found which of his many many styles works well,which suck,which work in certain situations. To be the max,we need to get healthy. We also need to wait,to let Nellie do his stuff.

After the season,which I expect includes a respectable playoff appearance-the guys we have should have a much higher market value. They will also have a higher keeper value in many cases. We may find we can do a trade then that now-many would say we'd never pull off.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Warriorfansnc93 Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Lets ask a hypothetical question...

Would yall rather have a Gilbert Arenas or Yao prior to this year. That is the peak I think both of these players could possibly become...</div>

Yao without a doubt. Well, it may not be that obvious for Biedrins and Monta. Monta is providing crucial 4th quarter scores so far, and we really really need those scorings. But, I will still go with Biedrins, because if we ever plan to stick Pietrus at PF and Richardson at SF, we desperately need an impact defensive center like Biedrins. I couldn't even imagine what would have happen if we force Murphy to play center. 4th quarter points are nice, but when we are down by 30 pts, it may not be matter much...

 

See I think Yao PRIOR to this year was not that special. I figured Biedrens would be about that good, but Arenas is a Team USA player and a All NBA type player. I think I would rather have him. Now if you asked if I could have a shaq type player then there is no doubt I would want a dominating center like that. I just dont think Yao was that dominating so I would rather have Arenas...

 

<div class="quote_poster">Warriorfansnc93 Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">See I think Yao PRIOR to this year was not that special.</div>

Did see Yao last year when he came back from his injury? The guy was an absolute beast averaging like 26-12. His season total was 22-10. I think thats special...

 

Warriors Player Movement

It's a no brainer to resigning Biedrins to a long term franchise type contract. I still don't see any upside for Pietrus, but he will perform well under the Don Nelson type of system. There is a million players like Ellis in the league and the Warriors have a history of finding quality scoring guards in the CBA and 2nd Round NBA draft (Keith Mr. Jennings, Earl Boykins, Arenas, Ellis) so I woud let him walk if he wants to be the next Strawberry of Stevie Franchise. Besides Webber, a number 1 pick and the Dampier trade, it has taken our franchise 10 fricking years to find a decent big. I still think Dunleavy will be our most tradable asset because Sr. can't stand Maguette. Finally, I do think Diogu will be leaving soon in package because he doesn't fit in the Nellie system and we need to sweeten the pot to get rid of the Foyle, Murphy contracts. On a side note the luxury tax is a joke, it has crippled franchises like the Knicks, Mavericks , Fakers and Warriors and has let no name markets like San Antonio to dismal NBA playoff ratings. If Cohan and Cuban want to spend to farm to keep good players, they shouldn't have to pay David Stern $2 dollars for every dollar over the cap.

 

<div class="quote_poster">AnimeFANatic Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Did see Yao last year when he came back from his injury? The guy was an absolute beast averaging like 26-12. His season total was 22-10. I think thats special...</div>

Did not know that. I guess the times I saw him he was not that interesting...

 

<div class="quote_poster">dareedle Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">It's a no brainer to resigning Biedrins to a long term franchise type contract. I still don't see any upside for Pietrus, but he will perform well under the Don Nelson type of system. There is a million players like Ellis in the league and the Warriors have a history of finding quality scoring guards in the CBA and 2nd Round NBA draft (Keith Mr. Jennings, Earl Boykins, Arenas, Ellis) so I woud let him walk if he wants to be the next Strawberry of Stevie Franchise. Besides Webber, a number 1 pick and the Dampier trade, it has taken our franchise 10 fricking years to find a decent big. I still think Dunleavy will be our most tradable asset because Sr. can't stand Maguette. Finally, I do think Diogu will be leaving soon in package because he doesn't fit in the Nellie system and we need to sweeten the pot to get rid of the Foyle, Murphy contracts. On a side note the luxury tax is a joke, it has crippled franchises like the Knicks, Mavericks , Fakers and Warriors and has let no name markets like San Antonio to dismal NBA playoff ratings. If Cohan and Cuban want to spend to farm to keep good players, they shouldn't have to pay David Stern $2 dollars for every dollar over the cap.</div>

Hey, what's up Dareedle? I think I remember your posts from another message board. Can't remember where though.

I agree about Biedrins is a must re-sign. There's been no double digit rebounding, offensive rebounding, athletic, tall center with good hands that we've had in quite a while. Very rare to have somebody that is power forward athletic, but seems strong enough to play center against PF/C's like Duncan/Jermaine O'neil/Chris Bosh, etc. It's about the only thing Mullin did right as GM in 2004.

I think Biedrins is number 1 priority over Ellis, but Ellis ain't that far behind IMO. It's not every day the Warriors actually drafted a guard that can defend on the ball, shoot for distance, shoot off the dribble, run the break, finish at the rim, and take it to the hole. But it is yet to be seen if he can become a reliable decision maker and be able to control his dribble going either way. He's also got to avoid the trick shots and keep things simple. Sometimes, he tries to go for spectacular just like in his high school scouting report from draftexpress. I hope Mullin does re-sign him but for something like Devin Harris/Leandrinho Barbosa type money. He's not a starting point guard yet. He's been a starter of shooting guard so far, but that's only because Jrich has been hurt and I'm not sure if Jrich has become good enough to emulate a real shooting guard. His handle is not so good and neither are his passing skill and instincts compared to the 4-5 assist a night type of guys. If Jrich was more like Ray Allen, D-wade, T-mac, Vinsanity or Ginobilli, then Ellis would be a fine shooting guard to play point kind of like Derek Fisher was to Kobe Bryant, but only better on both ends of the floor.

I would like to keep Ike Diogu, but we cannot keep everyone. That I agree with. I still think Ike and Biedrins would make a nasty pair inside and if Biedrins can cover Dunleavy/Murphy's weakness on defense, Diogu should make Biedrins defensive job easier than those two. Ike Diogu can alter shots at the rim and hold his position in the post, and most importantly he's got valuable passing skills from the high post. In addition to being a hustle player and unselfish teammate, he can shoot the 20 footer with ease and maybe drain a baseline 3 pointer once in a while. He's a guy that can get to the line repeatedly and not miss so much at the charity stripe. He's a high % shooter inside, even though his passing out of the post move is not so good right now. He's a good isolation player and eventually he'll be a good team player. He does a lot of things that don't show up on the stat sheet and he plays like a big player compared to Murphy/Dun. If we wanted more offensive rebounding and same good hands as Murphy/Biedrins, then we go with Ike. I would say keep Biedrins/Ike if we could and let Pietrus/Baron go instead.

I know Baron is our all-star and most reliable playmaker, but the guy has not been very healthy over several years, plus he's not the most reliable when the ball absolutely needs to move from one position to the other. The overdribbling and the low % jacks drive me nuts. To me future inside presence is more important than Don Nelson's small ball as a long term solution. If we play small ball forever, the 82 game season is going to wear down on everyone very quickly over the years. So I hope we get bigger so we can play at any pace and not just one tempo all the time. Diogu to me is a can't miss player once he gets healthy and in shape. He can play center at the college level and take somebody off the drive like a small forward, but I think he's prototype power forward in the nba all the way. I hope Diogu is at least effective like Zach Randolph is for Portland. Get Ike a center like Biedrins and we got lots of ways to defend and score and move the ball.

Of course I could be wrong since the chemistry might get screwed up. But last time I saw Ike and Beans together, they looked really good.

 

Gotta agree with CR2 on Ike, I think it's too early to give up on him. He's kind of The Forgotten Man right now and it'd be easy to imagine him tossed into a trade as a sweetener as Wfansnc93 says, but I wouldn't do it. Recall that Andris was not a big part of the original Nelson plan either, but that has changed. I think Nellie quickly realized (after about 5 games) that Dun and Murph in the front-court was not going to get it done on a regular basis. Even with Andris in there, he's basically having to cover for the deficiencies of the other big. Not so with Ike. And he was playing well before the injury, and starting to get more PT. I think Nellie wanted to go super small but has adjusted his philosphy somewhat, kudos to him for doing that and doing it quickly.

There's pretty much no situation where I'd rather have Murphy in the game in place of Ike at PF, even with the height disadvantage Ike has. Ike is hard where Murph is soft. Ike is at least acceptably quick where Murph is slow. Ike can jump where Murph seems glued to the floor. Ike has post moves galore where Murph has few or none. Ike can finish at the rim and draw fouls where Murph will be content to settle for the shot or the foul. Ike can block shots where Murph cannot. Both can shoot jumpers and both can hit their freethrows so that's a wash. Also try to remember how young Ike is and that he has played in total less than one full year of NBA basketball (and has only averaged 15 min/game for his NBA career). Advantage: Ike!

 

<div class="quote_poster">HiRez Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Gotta agree with CR2 on Ike, I think it's too early to give up on him. He's kind of The Forgotten Man right now and it'd be easy to imagine him tossed into a trade as a sweetener as Wfansnc93 says, but I wouldn't do it. Recall that Andris was not a big part of the original Nelson plan either, but that has changed. I think Nellie quickly realized (after about 5 games) that Dun and Murph in the front-court was not going to get it done on a regular basis. Even with Andris in there, he's basically having to cover for the deficiencies of the other big. Not so with Ike. And he was playing well before the injury, and starting to get more PT. I think Nellie wanted to go super small but has adjusted his philosphy somewhat, kudos to him for doing that and doing it quickly.

There's pretty much no situation where I'd rather have Murphy in the game in place of Ike at PF, even with the height disadvantage Ike has. Ike is hard where Murph is soft. Ike is at least acceptably quick where Murph is slow. Ike can jump where Murph seems glued to the floor. Ike has post moves galore where Murph has few or none. Ike can finish at the rim and draw fouls where Murph will be content to settle for the shot or the foul. Ike can block shots where Murph cannot. Both can shoot jumpers and both can hit their freethrows so that's a wash. Also try to remember how young Ike is and that he has played in total less than one full year of NBA basketball (and has only averaged 15 min/game for his NBA career). Advantage: Ike!</div>

Ike is a beast, pure and simple. He can average 15-7 easily this season. But where does a back to the basket guy fit in a running team? I hope he gets integrated some way. Ellis, Baron, JRich, Ike, Beans is my ideal starting line up. Solid backcourt and front court.

 

I think Ike would be great for this team. Its not like he cant run and doesnt hustle on the court! And its not like we run fast breaks 100% of the time, what about when the other team gets back defensively, what kind of half court offense do we run? We can go down low just as easily as we post up Baron, Jrich, Dunleavy or Beans. I think the starting lineup needs to have Ike in there or at least have him playing more minutes than Murphy. Dun is getting about 25-30 minutes per game. I dont know why Ike could not play those kind of minutes. My problem with Ike is that he does not rebound very well, but he does everything else better...

 

<div class="quote_poster">Warriorfansnc93 Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">I think Ike would be great for this team. Its not like he cant run and doesnt hustle on the court! And its not like we run fast breaks 100% of the time, what about when the other team gets back defensively, what kind of half court offense do we run? We can go down low just as easily as we post up Baron, Jrich, Dunleavy or Beans. I think the starting lineup needs to have Ike in there or at least have him playing more minutes than Murphy. Dun is getting about 25-30 minutes per game. I dont know why Ike could not play those kind of minutes. My problem with Ike is that he does not rebound very well, but he does everything else better...</div>

Ike is a decent rebounder. When called upon to rebound he will, as we saw last year when he tore down some boards when he was criticized about his lack of rebounding. Like Biedrins Ike is a very good offensive rebounder, he was one of the top in the league last year in offensive rebounds per 48 mins. If anything, he'll outrebound Dunleavy at PF lets not forget Ike boxes out also.

 

In this year's games, Ike's rebounds/48 minutes is 14.0 compared to Murphy's 10.2. Granted, it's only in 4 games for Ike, but not a bad start. Considering he's still basically a rookie and Murph is a veteran, I'll take my chances on that. Even in last year's games, where Ike was a true rookie and often playing out of position at C in Monty's comical "system", Ike had 10.6 compared to Murph's 14.2. Bottom line is that I think Ike is going to eventually be at minimum an acceptable rebounder, and I think he can be even better than that. Heck, in the game where he went out with the injury he had 8 boards in under 11 minutes of work.

 

<div class="quote_poster">AnimeFANatic Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Ike is a beast, pure and simple. He can average 15-7 easily this season. But where does a back to the basket guy fit in a running team? I hope he gets integrated some way. Ellis, Baron, JRich, Ike, Beans is my ideal starting line up. Solid backcourt and front court.</div>

HiRez was probably saying deep down inside that we can't think short term with our frontline. We have to mix it up further down the road. We can't be a running team forever because essentially teams that run, run only because they have no good big guys to go to inside, especially at center. We have a center in Biedrins if he keeps this up all year and gets better and better. Giving Ike a position right next to him, gives the team more weapons underneath the hoop and it allows us to make stops off the rim and play more physical. We just lack "enforcer" type bigs under the hoop that can bang and clear people out a little. Ike is simply a great fit for the team IMO because he bridges both center and small forward skills together and he doesn't have to score to be effective. He works his ass off when he's out there and he's got skill and great body strength and finesse. If we want a true go to guy in the post, that could be Ike most nights instead of Biedrins. Biedrins is not really an offensive player. He feeds off of guys like Baron and other penetrators.

Nelson said it himself that the better the team's big men are, the less of the small ball they have to do. Even the Suns know it. They can still be a fast team, but they need bigger options at PF and C eventually. We need to secure PF and C and then we can do some real damage in the playoffs if the team is good enough to make it. PF and C also need a good backcourt. So we can't count out our guards. The point guard and shooting guard need to be good passers and shooters and ballhandlers. They are almost same position role just like the power forward and center are supposed to be similar (except for a few differences)