There's a simple formula to figure out the true standings of the league. You take the Road Win total and subtract it from your Home Losses to get a +/- difference. Historically teams with a +4 differential have made the playoffs. 15 Games into the season these are the top teams: <u> Eastern Conference</u> <div class='codetop'>CODE</div><div class='codemain'>Orlando +4<br/>Detroit +3<br/>Indiana +3<br/>Chicago +2<br/>Cleveland +1<br/>Philadelphia 0<br/>New Jersey -1<br/>Toronto -1<br/>New York -1<br/>Milwaukee -1<br/>Atlanta -2<br/>Washington -2<br/>Miami -3<br/>Charlotte -3</div> *Note the Knicks are a real anomily. They have 5 road wins already, but can't win at home (1-6). If New York can learn to win at home and continue to be successful on the road they could be a surprise in the East. They have an upcoming 6 game homestand against some weak teams. If the Knicks can go 6-0 or 5-1, they could quickly climb up the Eastern Conference standings. <u> Western Conference</u> <div class='codetop'>CODE</div><div class='codemain'><br/>San Antonio +4<br/>Utah +4<br/>Dallas +3<br/>Houston +3<br/>Denver +2<br/>New Orleans +1<br/>Phoenix 0<br/>Sacramento 0<br/>Minnesota -1<br/>Lakers -1<br/>Clippers -1<br/>Memphis -2<br/>Portland -2<br/>Seattle -2<br/>Golden State -3</div>
Interesting. Didn't know that was a rule of thumb, but it makes sense. Another one I've read is adding 5 to a team's wins and losses to predict what their Win% will be by the end of the season. Jeff Sagarin's computer team ratings, adjusted for schedule and point differential, might also be of interest. First thing that jumps out at me is the discrepency between his rating for Golden State and your +/- rating. He has them ranked 6th in the entire league currently, while you have them tied for last place.
The discrepency takes place because Sagarin's two formulas weight variables that TRUE standings doesn't account. ECHO CHESS weights the team's strength of schedule. The Warriors have already played 9 games against top 10 teams and they've won close to half of them. PREDICTOR weights the point differential for each win and loss. The Warriors have some blowout wins against strong opponents, Utah (+13), San Antonio (+9), and Detroit (+32).
Just for fun, last year's TRUE standings. <u>Eastern Conference</u> <div class='codetop'>CODE</div><div class='codemain'><br/>Detroit +23<br/>Miami +11<br/>Cleveland +9<br/>New Jersey +8<br/>Washington +1<br/>Indiana 0<br/>Chicago 0<br/>Milwaukee -1<br/>Philadelphia -3<br/>Orlando -5<br/>Boston -8<br/>Toronto -14<br/>Atlanta -15<br/>Charlotte -15<br/>New York -18<br/></div> <u>Western Conference</u> <div class='codetop'>CODE</div><div class='codemain'><br/>San Antonio +22<br/>Dallas +19<br/>Phoenix +13<br/>Memphis +8<br/>Clippers +6<br/>Lakers +4<br/>Denver +3<br/>Sacramento +3<br/>Utah 0<br/>New Orleans -3<br/>Seattle -6<br/>Golden State -7<br/>Houston -7<br/>Minnesota -8<br/>Portland -20<br/></div>
How'd you determine the true standings? I think we should see the Wizards' standing go up if they can win their road games.
<div class="quote_poster">Ming637 Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">How'd you determine the true standings? I think we should see the Wizards' standing go up if they can win their road games.</div> I explained it in Post 1 <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post"> You take the Road Win total and subtract it from your Home Losses to get a +/- difference.</div>
Updated Standings through December 10th, 2006 <u>Eastern Conference</u> <div class='codetop'>CODE</div><div class='codemain'><br/>Orlando +5<br/>Detroit +4<br/>Indiana +3<br/>Cleveland +1<br/>Chicago +1<br/>Milwaukee 0<br/>Atlanta 0<br/>Toronto -1<br/>Washington -1<br/>Miami -1<br/>Philadelphia -2<br/>New York -3<br/>New Jersey -4<br/>Boston -5<br/>Charlotte -6<br/></div> <u>Western Conference</u> <div class='codetop'>CODE</div><div class='codemain'><br/>San Antonio +5<br/>Houston +5<br/>Utah +4<br/>Dallas +3<br/>Phoenix +3<br/>New Orleans +2<br/>Denver +1<br/>Minnesota +1<br/>Lakers -1<br/>Clippers -1<br/>Seattle -2<br/>Portland -2<br/>Sacramento -2<br/>Memphis -3<br/>Golden State -4<br/></div>
Updated Standings through December 20th, 2006 <u>Eastern Conference</u> <div class='codetop'>CODE</div><div class='codemain'><br/>Detroit +5<br/>Orlando +3<br/>Indiana +3<br/>Chicago +2<br/>Cleveland +1<br/>Toronto +1<br/>Milwaukee 0<br/>Washington 0<br/>Atlanta -2<br/>Miami -2<br/>Boston -3<br/>Philadelphia -5<br/>New York -5<br/>New Jersey -5<br/>Charlotte -7<br/></div> <u>Western Conference</u> <div class='codetop'>CODE</div><div class='codemain'><br/>San Antonio +7<br/>Dallas +6<br/>Utah +6<br/>Phoenix +6<br/>Houston +5<br/>Denver +3<br/>New Orleans 0<br/>Lakers 0<br/>Minnesota 0<br/>Portland 0<br/>Sacramento -3<br/>Golden State -3<br/>Seattle -3<br/>Clippers -5<br/>Memphis -5<br/></div>
Updated Standings through December 27th, 2006 <u>Eastern Conference</u> <div class='codetop'>CODE</div><div class='codemain'><br/>Detroit +6<br/>Indiana +3<br/>Milwaukee +3<br/>Washington +3<br/>Chicago +2<br/>Toronto +2<br/>Orlando +1<br/>Cleveland +1<br/>Miami -2<br/>Atlanta -4<br/>Boston -4<br/>Philadelphia -4<br/>New York -5<br/>New Jersey -7<br/>Charlotte -8<br/></div> <u>Western Conference</u> <div class='codetop'>CODE</div><div class='codemain'><br/>Utah +7<br/>San Antonio +6<br/>Dallas +6<br/>Houston +6<br/>Phoenix +5<br/>Denver +2<br/>Lakers +2<br/>Minnesota 0<br/>New Orleans -1<br/>Portland -1<br/>Golden State -2<br/>Sacramento -3<br/>Seattle -3<br/>Clippers -4<br/>Memphis -7<br/></div>
Interesting - milwaukee are at the bottom of their division yet according to this they're the no. 3 team in the East ???
<div class="quote_poster">phunDamentalz Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Interesting - milwaukee are at the bottom of their division yet according to this they're the no. 3 team in the East ???</div> Thats cuz East isnt that good.
<div class="quote_poster">phunDamentalz Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Interesting - milwaukee are at the bottom of their division yet according to this they're the no. 3 team in the East ???</div> If you click on the link Durvasa provided to Sagarin's Strengh of Schedule rankings you'll see Milwaukee has played the 4th hardest schedule this season from teams in the Eastern conference with a lot of road games to start the season off. <font color=""Green""><div class='codetop'>CODE</div><div class='codemain'><br/>1st - 76ers (90.77)<br/>2nd - Raptors (90.62)<br/>3rd - Bobcats (90.55)<br/>4th - Bucks (90.52)</div></font> Despite a tough schedule the Bucks have managed to climb above the .500 mark with their recent 6 game win streak. The Bucks have been solid at home and respectable on the road, which results in a +3 rating. As their schedule has gotten easier (more home games), the Bucks have gone from a 0 to their current +3.
Indiana and Milwaukee tied with Washington? I don't know, the Wizards have won 12 our of their last 15, but it's probably the defense that's held them down.
<div class="quote_poster">Will637 Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Indiana and Milwaukee tied with Washington? I don't know, the Wizards have won 12 our of their last 15, but it's probably the defense that's held them down.</div> These aren't power rankings, these standings are based on a simple, but accurate formula. Read Post #1.
Very interesting stuff here. Maybe I've been too hard on my Bucks It's true that we've played a tough schedule, and I really think that wins in Los Angeles and San Antonio prove we can hang with many of the playoff teams there are in the league. It really appears to be all about confidence, pace and our role players. When Charlie Bell plays well and we score 100+ points, it seems like we never lose. Who knows, with the win streak and these numbers, maybe the Bucks really can be a playoff team.
toronto in the lead for the atlantic is pathetic...so much for the wonderful nets...i believe the crown will belong to the knicks by the end of the season
<div class="quote_poster">rayant21 Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">toronto in the lead for the atlantic is pathetic...so much for the wonderful nets...i believe the crown will belong to the knicks by the end of the season</div> The Atlantic Division is pathetic, but the Raptors have put themselves in a great position to win the Division. As noted above, the Raptors have played the 2nd toughest strength of schedule in the Eastern Conference. Toronto is 3 games under .500, but they've played more road games than any team in the NBA with 18. Once the Raptors schedule balances out and they have a long home stand, they should easily move above the .500 winning percentage mark. As it currently stands, they are 8-3 at home (.727 winning percentage). Another factor benefitting the Raptors is their division record of 4-1. If they can continue to dominate their division they would win any tiebreakers. January should be a big month for Toronto the have 10 wins at home and only 5 road games. Most importantly, they are doing all of this WITHOUT their best player, Chris Bosh.
Updated Standings through January 4th, 2006 <u>Eastern Conference</u> <div class='codetop'>CODE</div><div class='codemain'><br/>Detroit +4<br/>Indiana +3<br/>Milwaukee +3<br/>Washington +3<br/>Chicago +2<br/>Cleveland +2<br/>Orlando +1<br/>Toronto 0<br/>Philadelphia -2<br/>Miami -4<br/>Atlanta -4<br/>Boston -4<br/>New York -4<br/>New Jersey -6<br/>Charlotte -8<br/></div> <u>Western Conference</u> <div class='codetop'>CODE</div><div class='codemain'><br/>Phoenix +8<br/>Dallas +7<br/>Utah +7<br/>San Antonio +6<br/>Houston +6<br/>Lakers +2<br/>Minnesota +1<br/>Denver 0<br/>Golden State -1<br/>New Orleans -2<br/>Sacramento -3<br/>Seattle -3<br/>Clippers -3<br/>Portland -4<br/>Memphis -7<br/></div>
