Warriors @ NO/OKC Hornets Jan 2, 2007 5:00pm FSN

Warriors playing against a team with no Chris Paul, no David West, no Peja Stojakavic.

We better not lose! That's all I can say. We're about the same record as last season minus a win and I know how easily we could slide in January and February. We've had some sort of a tailspin almost every single season about this time.

So if this team truly believes it's worthy of the playoffs, it better not lose.

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The positives are that Baron will probably get up, playing against his former team and that we'll probably have a healthier lineup in comparrison to the Hornets.

The negatives are that Marcus Vinicius could light us up for 30 points. Who is Marcus Vinicius, you say? I don't know either. But him being an unfamilar or scrub nba player (especially a forward) means he could probably light us up and give himself a career night.

If Dun or Murph want to prove they ain't defensive liabilities at PF or C they got to stop the ballhandlers at the rim. It's like Jermaine O'neil knows his Pacers team sucks at stopping dribble penetration. So it falls on him to block more shots, which is exactly what he's doing. If Dun or Murphy ain't capable of that "stopping the ball inside" game, Nelson please get them out of the game or we won't be able to swing momentums in our favor. Put the expensive backup center in there if we can. That's what he's there for. Foyle's job is to not only protect Biedrins, but to save his butt if he's being forced out of the defensive play by an opposing guy screening him off. Foyle is garbage but he leads our franchise in blocked shots, so he can't be bad at that. Plus, he's shooting 63.6%. When was that ever achievable for him considering he complicated things by dropping passes out of bounds or by blowing uncontested layups and dunks when it was a gimmee shot.

I think REREM was the first to spot what other teams were doing to Biedrins or whoever was our best defensive stopper at the rim. Right now our guards have had to provide some shotblocking or stops at the rim. We have to formulate some kind of defensive presence in the lane or it'll be hard to do what the Suns and Pistons do to fuel fastbreaks.

 

Against the Hornets without their 3 main guys. This would be on hell of an embarrassment if we lose this game. Even if we are on the road, we must prove we are playoff contenders and can beat a team on the road, even if their 3 best players are out.

 

I will be at this game!

 

<div class="quote_poster">Warriorfansnc93 Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">I will be at this game!</div>

Lucky guy.

 

Is it just me or does it seem like when the odds are in the Warriors favor, it's the exact opposite?

 

<div class="quote_poster">AnimeFANatic Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Is it just me or does it seem like when the odds are in the Warriors favor, it's the exact opposite?</div>

Either that or we made up these high probabilities in our heads. I think everytime I think the Warriors have good statistical odds to win, I'm checking the professional bookie/sports betting websites to see if they concur. I figure if it's their job to not lose money on the line, they better be right.

So far they've picked every season that the Warriors wouldn't make the playoffs while the bay area media was hyping us up last year and saying we'd make the playoffs. So I could care less what a normally critical news guy like Chad Ford had to say about how hot the Warriors looked like in preseason and how they will finish or what the bay area writers have to say. A guy like Chad Ford should stick to the draft coverage or something because I trust the bookies and gamblers now more than myself, the sports newswriters and their speculations. They'll say anything to hype it up. But I believe the gamblers have a formula to predict the outcome more times than not and that's something news people or I don't have. I bet all them number crunchers use linear regression analysis on every single variable about the game for each player or combo of players on the floor at one time. And they probably calculate all the expected values or probabilities and all that complicated math analysis... This is stuff that gamblers and some front offices are paying big bucks for. The big sports franchises probably got all kinds of expensive statistical information on virtually everything and not this free 82 game +/-'s stuff that we get.

I would like to know the correlation between Murphy's presence on the floor and what that does for our team and the other team. Maybe we'll look at foul trouble, how many times the ball touches other people's hands, how many second chance points we get, points in the paint, how many turnovers we force, stuff like that. I'd also like to know it for Dunleavy as well.

But maybe there's no stat analysis on the Warriors at all. The fact we haven't made the playoffs in 12 or 13 seasons is probably a no-brainer for betting people. And since we haven't been able to do anything in those 12 to 13 seasons, it's probably a statistical anomaly by itself, a super high deviation. Me peeing in a cup from 12 feet away and not spilling a drop. But game by game betting is hard to predict.

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/preview?gid=2007010203&prov=ap

Forgot they don't have Bobby Jackson either. That guy was a big scoring threat for the Kings back when he was healthy (which wasn't much).

 

Haven't we lost a number of games this year where we were playing teams with some of their best players out? If the Warriors are on the road I think they can lose to even the worst, most beat-up team in the league, they are just flat out terrible on the road most of the time. 13-5 at home, 3-11 on the road. Everything seems to go wrong: they come out with lackluster energy and run an unimaginative gameplan, falling into traps of letting teams push them into a slowed-down halfcourt game, then they lapse into jacking up desperation perimiter shots where they have little chance of rebounding. The swarming pressure defense which we've seen at The Oracle, which produces a lot of fastbreaking opportunities that play to the Warrior's strengths, is rarely present in away games.

Interestingly, the Clippers are in the same kind of Jekyl and Hyde situation. They are 12-6 at home and 2-10 on the road.

 

<div class="quote_poster">HiRez Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Haven't we lost a number of games this year where we were playing teams with some of their best players out? If the Warriors are on the road I think they can lose to even the worst, most beat-up team in the league, they are just flat out terrible on the road most of the time. 13-5 at home, 3-11 on the road. Everything seems to go wrong: they come out with lackluster energy and run an unimaginative gameplan, falling into traps of letting teams push them into a slowed-down halfcourt game, then they lapse into jacking up desperation perimiter shots where they have little chance of rebounding. The swarming pressure defense which we've seen at The Oracle, which produces a lot of fastbreaking opportunities that play to the Warrior's strengths, is rarely present in away games.

Interestingly, the Clippers are in the same kind of Jekyl and Hyde situation. They are 12-6 at home and 2-10 on the road.</div>

Hard to believe since the Clips were about .500 on the road according to
http://www.basketballreference.com

I'm guessing, but maybe it could be tied to Sam Cassell's health. After all he is a tremendous playmaker for such a slow, old guy and not to mention he is a great shooter and clutch performer. We could use more playmakers on this team that could score when needed and shoot a high % from the field and at the line. Getting to the line is another problem, though. Chris Kaman's numbers seem disappointing as well. I wonder if he's got the mental disability flaring up again or something. I forget what it was, but I think it could have been bi-polar disorder. Don't quote me on that. He's just injured probably. Like hamstring or something. Elton Brand probably has Yao Ming syndrome from playing in the offseason. He's probably dead tired and doesn't work down low as much.

Maybe I'll hop onto the clippers board to find out what's up with them.

 

This is a game where Ike and-or Murphy could have a lot of impact. If Ike can put Chandler in foul trouble-then the Hornets could be shorthanded on interior D. Mason gave us trouble last time,stick Pietrus on him and the Hornets won't have much scoring threat.

The Catch? If Nellie is stubborn and plays Dun a lot at PF-and Dun again racks up 14 MISSED shots..we could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

 

<div class="quote_poster">REREM Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">This is a game where Ike and-or Murphy could have a lot of impact. If Ike can put Chandler in foul trouble-then the Hornets could be shorthanded on interior D. Mason gave us trouble last time,stick Pietrus on him and the Hornets won't have much scoring threat.

The Catch? If Nellie is stubborn and plays Dun a lot at PF-and Dun again racks up 14 MISSED shots..we could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.</div>

Should we blame Nellie for that, though? Extending Dunleavy was Mullin's idea and he's currently BYC status in contract making 8-9 mil a year for five freakin' years. 45 mil total... 15 mil more than the comparable glue guy Jared Jeffries got for his 5 years (trade kicker or not). I figure the way Mullin paid the guy and was in a hurry to do so, puts a lot of pressure on the coaches to play his overpaid role players.

Especially if it's a coach who believes in point forward point forward point forward. Maybe he's trying to get Dunleavy's numbers up to get him out. I'm also sure Mullin wouldn't mind Nelson trying to play his other signings like Murphy or his personal draft choices like Ike, but we know Dunleavy has a special place in his heart. That's his boy. Nobody would have given him the contract he got except for Mullin, I'm pretty sure of it. What was the market on Jared Jeffries, Marko Jaric, Brent Barry, Kyle Korver, Hedo Turkoglu, etc? They made it sound like Mike Dunleavy Jr. was going to blow up and be Dirk Nowitzki or at least Mike Miler something. What an embarassing signing, terrible gamble, and waste of money resources. The slow guy ain't going to emulate the quicker guys like Miller and Nowitzki if he can't shoot or beat players at his intended positions.

 

A game where Dun is sucky on D and shoots a lot-while under 30%fg,won't make him any more marketable. Some minutes may have enhanced the market for Foyle or Murphy however. Playing Ike seemed pretty obvious. The Kings D in the paint was not all that good,yet it was a lost cause by the time we even tried to battle them inside.

Dunleavy is a guy who,if he's in any one role for 10 min,will get exposed and exploited. If the refs,on a certain night,are calling the charge a lot,Dun's flopmaster D can help. If they are NOT calling charges-like the Sac game-it backfires. At least with Murphy,a scorer has to bother to go around him. With Dun-they go past him,through him,over him.

A HUGE yet unanswered question is this......What is the Warriors actual position as regards future Luxury Tax costs? A whole lot of the speculation-big picture strategy-people are discussing is based on the idea the Warriors will be firm about avoiding Lux Tax,and will thus need to decide which talent loss is most acceptable to achieve that priority. Taking that a step furthur---some are looking at a "crisis" that happens in a year and a half-and are ready to do something real desperate NOW.
Add to that---the combination of a new coach with a new system,a lot of experimental roles,all disrupted by a whole epidemic of injuries that,besides affecting our W-L now,also impact the CURRENT market value of several key players. My conclusion-IF we ARE making no-lux-tax a priority,we will likely lose a lot of ground in terms of accumulating talent.

If-however-Mullin went into the Dunleavy signing knowing Cohen would permit a year or two of lux-tax if it helps us build a base,some stability,then that changes everything. I have seen trade ideas that suggest we swap J Rich-Murphy-Dunleavy-Foyle all at once,what we get? Crud,but the crud has shorter contracts,or smaller contracts. Okay-we take 4/5 of last years starters,each a former lotto pick-convert them to pretty much nothing. Based on last year-that's over 50 pts a game scoring-and our 1-2-3 rebounders.

Were Mully to take such a step---he'd be declaring that he was so inept that his contract misjudgements set us back 4 #1 picks. He has to have an alternate plan.

I'd tend to assume Mullin is expecting to pay Lux tax-short term. If just one contract is moved-it's not much lux tax,and when Foyle-Baron expire-we get out of the lux tax zone totally

 

The trouble with Dunleavy is the illusion that him being 6-9 actually means anything. His "small man" skills may equal a fairly decent 6-5 backup G,but his "big man" skills ALSO equal a decent 6-5 backup G. The exception is he's not as quick as that 6-5 G.

 

As for the Hornets-they are real vulnerable now. We at least had more depth to begin with. Nellie could gimmick us into trouble-but seems to see us using a more conventional PF ( Ike-Murphy) since Dun-McL will be the backups at the 1-2-3.

 

<div class="quote_poster">REREM Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">The trouble with Dunleavy is the illusion that him being 6-9 actually means anything. His "small man" skills may equal a fairly decent 6-5 backup G,but his "big man" skills ALSO equal a decent 6-5 backup G. The exception is he's not as quick as that 6-5 G.</div>

Well, that's really what he is: a decent back-up. In the draft, you roll the dice -- sometimes you get stars, sometimes you get back-ups. Mullin did fine in drafting the guy, I suppose -- the only problem was he gave him a starter's contract. If he gave him 3 years 14 mils, then it wouldn't be a problem.

But Dun is a good back-up at times and I don't have a problem with him coming off the bench. He could be a spoke in the wheels of a playoff team. If we could trade him for equal talent / cheaper $$, I'd be thrilled, though.

 

It doesn't matter how good Dunleavy gets, he'll always be overpaid.

 

I didn't watch the game but... it seems the Warriors pulled this one through even though they shot under 40% and the Hornets shot 47%. Usually it's the other way around.

As for Azubuike, how'd he look on the floor? His stat line seems fine for his NBA debut.

 

Missed the first half...but man we started off real bad second half. We shot too many 3s and stopped driving to the basket. Barnes did pretty good again but does any notice that if barnes doesn't hit his 3's he doesn't score at all? I say more than half of his shots are 3s

 

Damn, I thought this game started at 7, so I missed it.