<div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">Even if you had missed the news that the Memphis Grizzlies fired Mike Fratello late last month and replaced him, on an interim basis, with Director of Player Personnel Tony Barone, Jr., you could probably figure out the erstwhile Czar of the Telestrator’s demise just from seeing the scores of recent Grizzlies games. Last Wednesday, Barone’s charges defeated the Golden State Warriors 144-135, setting a franchise scoring record — not just for regulation, the overall scoring record period. Clearly, Fratello’s crawlball is out.At the indispensable Memphis Flyer Beyond the Arc Grizzlies blog, Chris Herrington took the opportunity to wonder, “Has there EVER been a team to embark on such a colossal change in style of play in the middle of a season without any roster changes? This has got to be terribly rare situation.” For a team to go from playing one of the league’s slowest paces to one of its fastest during a season has to be relatively unprecedented. I was curious, however, if there has been anything similar in recent NBA memory. Calculating pace of play before and after coaching changes would be prohibitively timely, but with an hour or two to spare, I hit upon a faster way — looking at total points scored and allowed per game. Before you revoke my APBRmetrics card, I know this is a sloppy way to look at the issue — the Grizzlies, for example, have seen not only their possessions per game but also their Offensive and Defensive Ratings skyrocket — but since we’re looking for an extreme case here, it should be acceptable. (In case you’re curious, the Grizzlies have averaged 97.2 possessions per 48 minutes in five games under Barone, up 10.2% from the 88.2 they averaged under Fratello. Their Offensive Rating has gone from 105.0 to 118.7, their Defensive Rating from 109.6 to 121.2. If maintained over a full season, the Barone Grizzlies would have far and away the league’s best offense and worst defense.) Including a pair of changes by the Denver Nuggets in 2004-05, there were 19 midseason coaching changes made over the previous three NBA seasons. I’ve ranked them, and this year’s Grizzlies, but the percentage increase in total points scored and allowed per game: <div class='codetop'>CODE</div><div class='codemain'><br/>YearTeamTPts1TPts2Change<br/>2007 MEM193.3233.2 +20.6<br/>2004 ORL184.1196.8+6.9<br/>2005 LAL195.8205.5+5.0<br/>2005 DEN2 192.8201.5+4.5<br/>2004 PHO186.0194.2+4.4<br/>2005 POR187.3195.2+4.2<br/>2006 MIA190.3197.9+4.0<br/>2005 NYK193.2200.5+3.8<br/>2004 BOS189.8194.8+2.6<br/><br/>YearTeamTPts1TPts2Change<br/>2005 ORL200.4204.5+2.0<br/>2004 NJN176.5179.7+1.8<br/>2006 SEA206.4209.2+1.4<br/>2005 CLE191.7194.2+1.3<br/>2005 DEN1 192.3193.7+0.7<br/>2004 NYK184.8186.0+0.6<br/>2004 PHI178.9177.7-0.7<br/>2005 MIN193.5189.6-2.0<br/>2005 DAL200.3195.4-2.4<br/>2005 MEM189.5183.7-3.1<br/>2004 CHI190.9184.4-3.4<br/><br/>AVERAGE 190.9195.9+2.6<br/></div> (Note that DEN1 compares the Nuggets under Jeff Bzdelik to the 14 games coached by Michael Cooper. DEN2 compares the 42 combined games under Bzdelik and Cooper to George Karl’s 40 games.) </div> Source This is by far the craziest point jump by any team in the history of the NBA after a coaching change.
