<div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">TED GRIGGS, the vice president of programming and operations for Fox Sports Net Bay Area, isn't trying to turn Warriors broadcasters Bob Fitzgerald and Jim Barnett into psychics. He's simply trying to give them an added talking point. FSNBA has introduced a new feature on Warriors broadcasts that examines win probability based on statistics in the NBA over the past five years. The probability is predicated on five key factors -- home court, possession, time remaining, timeouts left and point differential. The formula was devised by San Mateo-based ProTrade, an online company that treats sports like the stock market and assigns values to players and teams. At any point during a game, the ProTrade formula can show the percentage of times a team has won based on the key factors over the past five years. As Griggs and ProTrade co-founder Jeffrey Ma stress, that doesn't mean they are predicting which team is going to win any given game at any given point in time. It's simply demonstrating tendencies based on recent history. "That's one of the things we've struggled with -- we're not trying to be a psychic here," Griggs said. "It's just one more thing to talk about. It's not an absolute predictor of what's going to happen. That's different than saying the Warriors are going to win because teams win 90 percent of the time in a certain situation. It's an important delineation to make." The feature is most valuable late in close games -- it's easy to see why a team with a 30-point lead at halftime usually wins. But in a tight game down the stretch, win probability can change dramatically with shifts in such things as point differential, time remaining and possession. "It's surprising how much it changes late in the game," Griggs said. "It's like refreshing your computer system -- every time it's new data. One basket changes it pretty dramatically." ProTrade first went to FSNBA with a baseball formula on the recommendation of A's general manager Billy Beane, who is on ProTrade's board of directors along with former 49ers tight end Brent Jones and Sharks co-owner Kevin Compton. But Griggs and FSNBA general manager Jeff Krolik declined because it was too late in the season. Research for the basketball formula was spearheaded by Ma, who was a member of the MIT blackjack team that took the Las Vegas casinos for millions by counting cards. Ma was the principal character, under the name, "Kevin Lewis," in the New York Times best-seller "Bringing Down the House."</div> Source
I think it's annoying as hell. It's more of a distraction than anything, Barnett doesn't know what the hell to do with it, Fitzgerald spends 5 minutes of each telecast explaining the whole concept over and over, lol. Why do I want to see the probability % every 5 minutes -- it's like the broadcaster's jinx on freethrows -- hey, they're up by five!! They probably have a good chance to win the game!! Woo hoo! wtf?
Every time this thing pops up on the screen, I just roll my eyes. It's silly. Have they actually run out of things to talk about? The only time I thought it was entertaining was when Matt Steinmetz was doing the half time show and he was talking about it. He was trying to explain it (obviously for the first time) and they should have given him a list, or a monitor to read. He was pulling things out of his ass saying "They take into account... uh... team fouls, and uh... " I was like, WTF are you talking about Matt?? Come on!!
"Bringing Down the House" is a great book. One of my all time favorites. But that statistical probability thing is annoying as hell. I always think that it will jinx the team.
Yeah, I agree with the rest here, especially since Bob Fitzgerald is a percentage-person. He always seems stuck on following the FG% and FT% and 3 point FG% of the two teams. This is a new thing for Bob to toy around with. I think it would be interesting to see like at the end of the third quarter or even half time. Following it at certain times during quarters and before halftime(such as in the first quarter) does get annoying. I would actually be more interested in statistics such as how many times the Warriors or the opposing team wins after leading through 3 periods then considering this devise. Hopefully it's just a fad that will find some use at some point in the NBA and become less of a center point around the broadcasting of games for Bob and Jim.
This is really just another way they (FOX) can make some advertising money. ProTrade is happy to have their logo blasted all over the place. Just like the "Jack Daniel's Shot of the Night". It's all marketing. I could make up some numbers that seem to make sense based on watching the sport for a while, and nobody would know the difference
