Big Mistake? Trading Away A Chance At Durant

<div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">Paul Pierce was quoted in the Boston Herald on Sunday urging the Celtics to consider trading their first-round draft pick for immediate help, rather than wishing and hoping for assistance from the 2007 draft.

There is only one response to such a suggestion: Is Pierce nuts?

Better that the Celtics tell him to spend the remainder of the season letting the stress reaction in his left foot heal thoroughly, the better to increase their chances of having the worst record in the league.

After a 2006 draft diluted because the league's new age restrictions made the most talented potential draftees ineligible, the 2007 draft class shapes up as one of the most talented since the LeBron James-Carmelo Anthony-Dwyane Wade-Chris Bosh class of 2003.

The injury-riddled Celtics and Grizzlies lead the pack in the race for lottery chances. It would be pure folly for either of them to mess things up now.

One of Pierce's points Sunday was valid enough: You never know how the lottery is going to play out. That's why it's called a lottery. However, the odds of the team with the worst record getting shut out of both the first and second pick approach astronomical. This year, that is huge because Texas' Kevin Durant, the forward who is the presumed No. 2 overall selection in June, may turn out to be a better pick than Ohio State center Greg Oden, presumed by everyone to be the first selection.

Before he played a single game for the University of Texas, some NBA player personnel types privately insisted Durant would have been their choice if they had the first pick in the 2006 draft and the rules hadn't changed to make high school seniors ineligible.

I know one general manager who continues to believe Durant will turn out to be a better pick than Oden.

The NBA doesn't allow team personnel to speak about college underclassmen, but a highly respected veteran scout, one who has been around the league for nearly 30 years, offered some opinions about Durant and Oden, on condition his name not be used, lest his team be fined by commissioner David Stern.

"First off," said the scout, "I don't think most people have seen Oden totally healthy. That wrist injury has limited him offensively. But he's good, and history always tells you size moves up."

Indeed, two talented big men went ahead of Michael Jordan in the 1984 draft. The Houston Rockets made Hakeem Olajuwon the No. 1 overall selection. No great surprise there, and Olajuwon eventually brought two championships to Houston. The Portland Trail Blazers passed on Jordan, too, selecting center Sam Bowie.

Jordan went to Chicago, and the NBA in the 1990s was pretty much all about MJ.

Bowie had an injury-plagued career, and the Blazers eventually were ridiculed for having taken him instead of Jordan.

My friend, the scout, provided some perspective, which has relevance to the Oden-Durant debate.

"Nobody," he said, "thought it was that unusual when Sam Bowie went ahead of Jordan. Nobody said, 'What are they doing?'

"If you go back and look at the clips or talk to people who were involved, nobody thought it was so odd. That came later. Two people passed Jordan, and maybe Houston wasn't vindicated until 1994-95 when they won a championship. Don't forget that Portland already had Jim Paxson and Clyde Drexler at that position."

That said, the scout did not disagree Durant could turn into an All-NBA first-team player. Using the first pick on him would not be foolhardy, he said.

How does Durant compare to Anthony when Anthony was a freshman at Syracuse?

"This kid is much more talented," the scout said. </div>

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