<div class="quote_poster">Rock4life Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">It's his lack of offensive IQ that makes him unable to perform at a high level with big minutes. I think Van Gundy's too stubborn & close minded sometimes. Our defense is good, but offensivley we depend on Tmac too much. I'd like to see different lineups used to give Tmac more help offensivley.</div> The funny thing is, if you take a look at the actual team's performance this season and just for a second stop focusing on Chuck's blundered layups, this argument becomes very unconvincing. For example, consider how the team has performed in the fourth quarters and overtimes while McGrady is on the floor: <div class='codetop'>CODE</div><div class='codemain'><br/>Through February 13th, without Yao on the court<br/><br/>Player CombinationPFPAMINOff48Def48Net48 <br/>McGrady 382 382 187 97.9 97.9 0<br/><br/>McGrady & Chuck 170 150 81 100.2 88.5+11.8<br/>McGrady & no Chuck212 232 106 96.1105.2 -9.1<br/><br/>McGrady & Juwan 123 123 56 102.7102.7 0<br/>McGrady & no Juwan259 259 130 95.8 95.8 0<br/></div> In 4th quarters and overtimes, we're +11.8 when McGrady and Chuck are on the court together and Yao isn't around. Honestly, that surprised the hell out of me. Notice how far improved our defense becomes when Mac has Chuck next to him versus when he doesn't: nearly 17 points fewer allowed per 48 minutes! And our offense isn't any worse either. For the sake of comparison, our points for and against have been equal with McGrady and Juwan on the court in the same scenario.
<div class="quote_poster">durvasa Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">The funny thing is, if you take a look at the actual team's performance this season and just for a second stop focusing on Chuck's blundered layups, this argument becomes very unconvincing. For example, consider how the team has performed in the fourth quarters and overtimes while McGrady is on the floor: <div class='codetop'>CODE</div><div class='codemain'><br/>Through February 13th, without Yao on the court<br/><br/>Player CombinationPFPAMINOff48Def48Net48 <br/>McGrady 382 382 187 97.9 97.9 0<br/><br/>McGrady & Chuck 170 150 81 100.2 88.5+11.8<br/>McGrady & no Chuck212 232 106 96.1105.2 -9.1<br/><br/>McGrady & Juwan 123 123 56 102.7102.7 0<br/>McGrady & no Juwan259 259 130 95.8 95.8 0<br/></div> In 4th quarters and overtimes, we're +11.8 when McGrady and Chuck are on the court together and Yao isn't around. Honestly, that surprised the hell out of me. Notice how far improved our defense becomes when Mac has Chuck next to him versus when he doesn't: nearly 17 points fewer allowed per 48 minutes! And our offense isn't any worse either. For the sake of comparison, our points for and against have been equal with McGrady and Juwan on the court in the same scenario.</div> I knew you'd come with some bogus stat lol. I just don't think a NBA player should miss layups as often as Chuck Hayes. Either way you put it, with Tmac on the court our team is great. But we have to find another player who can finish under the basket.
<div class="quote_poster">Rock4life Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">I knew you'd come with some bogus stat lol. I just don't think a NBA player should miss layups as often as Chuck Hayes. Either way you put it, with Tmac on the court our team is great. But we have to find another player who can finish under the basket.</div> Just because you can't understand it, doesnt make it bogus. How is missing a layup different than missing a normal shot. In the end, the result is the same: no points scored. Everyone has their own method of scoring, what matters is if you are making a larger percent of your attempts. The fact is, if everyone is supposed to make their layups, then why don't everyone attempt only layups? If you are supposed to make 95% of your layups, why not just have the team only attempt layups? My point is that layups is Hayes method of scoring. Its not any different the Tmac shooting jumpshots, Howard shooting hooks, Rafer doing teardrops.
<div class="quote_poster">foo82 Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Just because you can't understand it, doesnt make it bogus. How is missing a layup different than missing a normal shot. In the end, the result is the same: no points scored. Everyone has their own method of scoring, what matters is if you are making a larger percent of your attempts. The fact is, if everyone is supposed to make their layups, then why don't everyone attempt only layups? If you are supposed to make 95% of your layups, why not just have the team only attempt layups? My point is that layups is Hayes method of scoring. Its not any different the Tmac shooting jumpshots, Howard shooting hooks, Rafer doing teardrops.</div> What kinda question is that? Layups are supposed to be converted on regular basis. Most players at Chuck's position would just dunk the ball. I'm pretty sure if they could every team would LOVE to take all layups. Unfortunatley, it's not that easy in the league. However, if ur fortunate enuff to get them you have to convert them. Against the better teams, we can't afford to have Chuck miss 4 layups. Especially after we know he's not gonna hit his free throws. Chuck's offensive production is beyond poor at this point. There ain't no excuse you can conjure to hide that.
<div class="quote_poster">Rock4life Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">I knew you'd come with some bogus stat lol. </div> Bogus because it directly contradicts your claim?
<div class="quote_poster">durvasa Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Bogus because it directly contradicts your claim?</div> No it doesn't...It says Tmac is great player, I agree with that.
<div class="quote_poster">Rock4life Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">No it doesn't...It says Tmac is great player, I agree with that.</div> This just shows you don't understand the stats. Actually these stats tell little on how well Tmac performs. Tmac is the control here (if you understand what that means). Since Tmac is in all the data provided, there is no basis for comparison to how well he plays. These stats are meant to tell how well OTHER players play with Tmac.
<div class="quote_poster">foo82 Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">This just shows you don't understand the stats. Actually these stats tell little on how well Tmac performs. Tmac is the control here (if you understand what that means). Since Tmac is in all the data provided, there is no basis for comparison to how well he plays. These stats are meant to tell how well OTHER players play with Tmac.</div> I never fully comprehend ur statements lol....If a player like Tmac or Yao's in the game, no matter who you are, isn't that gonna boost ur +/-?I mean I could suit up for a game and play with Tmac or Yao, and my +/- is gonna be off the charts The point is there are loopholes in +/- stats. On the other hand, if I come off the bench and play then my +/- might be low. It's not a real reflection of a player's overrall game.
<div class="quote_poster">Rock4life Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">I never fully comprehend ur statements lol....If a player like Tmac or Yao's in the game, no matter who you are, isn't that gonna boost ur +/-?I mean I could suit up for a game and play with Tmac or Yao, and my +/- is gonna be off the charts The point is there are loopholes in +/- stats. On the other hand, if I come off the bench and play then my +/- might be low. It's not a real reflection of a player's overrall game.</div> You still arent getting it. Maybe someone can explain it better than me, but I will try. No..that isnt what the stats tell. The stats use Tmac as a benchmark. Its not him boosting other peoples +/-, its other people boosting his +/-. These stats do not tell how well the team performs when Tmac is off the court(which is how you will compare). Your argument would only be valid if it showed Hayes w/ Tmac compared to Hayes w/o Tmac, but this isnt the case here. These stats show Tmac w/ hayes, and Tmac w/o Hayes. In other words, Hayes is affecting Tmac's +/-, not the other way around. This is what this data shows. When Tmac is on the court w/ Hayes, we only allow 88.5 per 48 minutes. When Tmac is on the court w/o Hayes, we allow a wopping 105 points per 48 minutes. That is a considerable difference. The only difference between the first and second stat is Hayes being on the court. Next it shows Tmac w/ Juwan on the court. We allow 102.7 points per 48 minutes. When Tmac is on the court without Juwan, we allow 95.8 points per 48 minutes. What you can tell is that our offense is slightly better with howard than with Hayes (102 vs 100). Yes, good players do boost other people +/-. That means naturally starters will have a better +/- then bench players simply because of who they play with. This is why Durvasa included Tmac into the mix. This way it fixes the data so that it compares how well the players play when Tmac is on the court. I agree you can not solely rely on +/- as an indicator of performance, but the defensive difference when Hayes is on the court is quite glaring for it to be a statistical anamoly.
<div class="quote_poster">Rock4life Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">I never fully comprehend ur statements lol....If a player like Tmac or Yao's in the game, no matter who you are, isn't that gonna boost ur +/-?I mean I could suit up for a game and play with Tmac or Yao, and my +/- is gonna be off the charts The point is there are loopholes in +/- stats. On the other hand, if I come off the bench and play then my +/- might be low. It's not a real reflection of a player's overrall game.</div> Before, you said Chuck brought down T-mac with his lack of offense. But when I showed that McGrady and the Rockets have performed quite well with Chuck on the court, you changed to a different topic. If you want to continue to believe that Chuck will be a liability looking forward, fine. It just so happens that he hasn't been a liability up to this point, and in fact we've played quite well with him and not as well without him. That's a generalization, of course. Some games, we've played much better without Chuck late in game. But most of the time, we've been better when he's been in there. That's what the evidence shows, and it's why our coaching staff has tended to go with Chuck late in games. Call it a fluke if you like, but you can't deny reality.
<div class="quote_poster">foo82 Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">You still arent getting it. Maybe someone can explain it better than me, but I will try. No..that isnt what the stats tell. The stats use Tmac as a benchmark. Its not him boosting other peoples +/-, its other people boosting his +/-. These stats do not tell how well the team performs when Tmac is off the court(which is how you will compare). Your argument would only be valid if it showed Hayes w/ Tmac compared to Hayes w/o Tmac, but this isnt the case here. These stats show Tmac w/ hayes, and Tmac w/o Hayes. In other words, Hayes is affecting Tmac's +/-, not the other way around. This is what this data shows. When Tmac is on the court w/ Hayes, we only allow 88.5 per 48 minutes. When Tmac is on the court w/o Hayes, we allow a wopping 105 points per 48 minutes. That is a considerable difference. The only difference between the first and second stat is Hayes being on the court. Next it shows Tmac w/ Juwan on the court. We allow 102.7 points per 48 minutes. When Tmac is on the court without Juwan, we allow 95.8 points per 48 minutes. What you can tell is that our offense is slightly better with howard than with Hayes (102 vs 100). Yes, good players do boost other people +/-. That means naturally starters will have a better +/- then bench players simply because of who they play with. This is why Durvasa included Tmac into the mix. This way it fixes the data so that it compares how well the players play when Tmac is on the court. I agree you can not solely rely on +/- as an indicator of performance, but the defensive difference when Hayes is on the court is quite glaring for it to be a statistical anamoly.</div> So do the other 3 players affect the +/-? For instance, let's say JVG plays Mutumbo with Hayes the majority of the time. Or leaves Howard at Center with Mcgrady in. That's what the +/- doesn't show. You just have Mcgrady/Hayes or Mcgrady/without Hayes. What about the other 3 players who play a role in that? The plus/minus stats are somewhat overrated. <div class="quote_poster">durvasa Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Before, you said Chuck brought down T-mac with his lack of offense. But when I showed that McGrady and the Rockets have performed quite well with Chuck on the court, you changed to a different topic. If you want to continue to believe that Chuck will be a liability looking forward, fine. It just so happens that he hasn't been a liability up to this point, and in fact we've played quite well with him and not as well without him. That's a generalization, of course. Some games, we've played much better without Chuck late in game. But most of the time, we've been better when he's been in there. That's what the evidence shows, and it's why our coaching staff has tended to go with Chuck late in games. Call it a fluke if you like, but you can't deny reality.</div> So by watching the Rocket games, ur sayin Chuck Hayes isn't a liability on offense? Yay or Nay
<div class="quote_poster">Rock4life Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">So by watching the Rocket games, ur sayin Chuck Hayes isn't a liability on offense? Yay or Nay</div> Being a liability depends completely on the role he's put in. If the Rockets are depending on him to score a lot of points, he's a liability. You could say the same thing about Mutombo, incidentally. But I don't believe they do depend on him to play that role, which is why their offense doesn't go caput when he's in the game. Moreover, there is substantial evidence that he has a very positive impact on the defensive end. Of all the players on the team, the Rockets allow the fewest points per possession when Chuck is on the court (the next two are Mutombo and Battier, who obviously our two of our best defenders, if you're wondering). That's why on the season, the Rockets have outscored the opponent when Chuck is on the court 67% of the time. McGrady is at 70%, and Yao and Battier are at 69%. For Rafer it's 64%. Then you got Bonzi at 62%. No on else is over 60%. For Juwan, it's 45% ... by far the worst amongst Rockets who have been in the regular rotation. Funny how the same thing happened last year (Howard was at 34% and again last on the team amongst regulars, while Chuck was at 70% which lead the team by far). Look, maybe it's all a fluke. Maybe Chuck actually sucks like you say, but for whatever reason when he's on the court the other players step up and the opponents start playing worse. But the longer this pattern persists where Chuck's floor time correlates very highly with us outscoring the other team, the harder it is to dismiss it as a fluke or random statistical variation. <div class="quote_poster">Rock4life Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">So do the other 3 players affect the +/-? For instance, let's say JVG plays Mutumbo with Hayes the majority of the time. Or leaves Howard at Center with Mcgrady in. That's what the +/- doesn't show. You just have Mcgrady/Hayes or Mcgrady/without Hayes. What about the other 3 players who play a role in that? The plus/minus stats are somewhat overrated.</div> I picked McGrady and Hayes as a combination, because I was addressing your point that Hayes makes McGrady's job more difficult. If you want to see other combinations with 3, 4, or 5 players, I can easily look that up. But if you don't care, I won't bother.
