I guess it's true what they say about defense dominating in the playoffs, only one of the eight teams who played today broke 100, and just barely at that. The average points scored for all eight teams was 90.6, and the average for the four winning teams was only 94. That doesn't bode well for the Warriors (or Suns, Nuggets, and Lakers, for that matter). Can the Warriors win scoring under 100 points? I doubt it. Obviously the key is to force the running game on the opponent, but can they do that? If you have a disciplined team who refuses to get baited into that game (I'm thinking of San Antonio, but the Mavs are there too), things could get ugly. EDIT: I looked up how many of Golden State's wins were with fewer than 100 points. Of 42 wins, only five fell into that category. Average points scored in those five games? 96.4.
That's exactly what I'm thinking. We'll be lucky if we win one game. Playoffs are totally different from regular season. Defense takes away our best attribute which is only scoring. We don't have an all-around defense to match up with playoff teams. If we don't shoot the three well it will be murder...
<div class="quote_poster">custodianrules2 Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">That's exactly what I'm thinking. We'll be lucky if we win one game. Playoffs are totally different from regular season. Defense takes away our best attribute which is only scoring. We don't have an all-around defense to match up with playoff teams. If we don't shoot the three well it will be murder...</div> I would agree... but your pessimism (even despite making the playoffs) is so strong. I hope the Warriors or Suns prove you totally wrong haha.
The Warriors have a lot of half-court matchups to take advantage of. Baron Davis should be able to succeed vs. Jason Terry with his quickness and in the post. Andris Biedrins is too quick for Dampier. Dirk isn't really known for his defense, and I'd like to see what he can do against Jackson or Harrington who should have a quickness advantage. Also notice that one of the four games was Houston vs. Utah which includes two low scoring teams in general. If you take away the Utah/Houston game the average score put up by the other six teams is 94.3... points. Miami is another team that averaged very few points in the regular season as well, who played today. The games may not be going to 120 or 110's like in the regular season. But I can see the games reaching 100 or so, especially in the Warriors/Mavericks case. The Nets, and Bulls scored near 1 or 2 points less than their season average, the Pistons scored I think about 3 or 4 points more than their season average, and of course a Sloan/Van Gundy playoff series is going to be low scoring. I don't know, maybe you are right that playoff scoring tends to be lower than regular season scoring. But the four games tonight I don't think is strong evidence toward that or what may happen in the Warriors/Mavs series. I think we'd need to go to last year's playoffs and previous playoffs to get a better idea of it. Or we can just wait and watch it tomorrow. I'm very excited for it to come.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/NBA_2006.html I think looking at playoff series like the Suns/Lakers from last year's playoffs, along with Miami/Dallas in the finals, it will tell that the team that can controll the pace of the game can really succeed. This could probably be said even for last years Spurs/Dallas series. When you have the tempo going for you, even the refs may even get their whistle insync with your play and favor you with a few calls. Many people are saying that the Mavericks need to keep the pace down. But I wonder, if that really is their style that they succeed the most at. This team does not have a Duncan, Kobe, or Shaq. I am not saying Dirk is a bad player, but I haven't really seen him step it up consistantly, especially in a slow paced game, enough to really be like a Duncan, Kobe or Shaq who can just dominate mostly in the slow-paced playoff game. Hopefully the Warriors can send the Mavericks on a big losing streak, similar to how the Mavs opened the season haha. yeah I'm getting psyched up now. And if the Mavs do decide to slow it up, I hope Baron/Monta get up in Terry's grill, Pietrus/Richardson in Howard's grill, and Harrington/Jackson in Dirk's grill to make them rush and be totally off balance.
It will be pretty tough to control the tempo against a team like dallas who is very good at offence and defence, but I thjink you've got a chance in beating them. If and only if you guys manage to control the tempo.
The Warriors will have to battle against Dallas, and the ticky tacky ref calls. Hopefully they swallow their whistles, since it's the playoffs, but something tells me we see Andres in foul trouble a lot. This is the NBA where every team has to take steps to success. This is step 1. What I hope to gain out of this is that the Warriors at least compete in every game. I hope to see them lay it all out on the floor every night. With Mully as a GM and Nelly as a coach, I have no doubt that this team will do just that. This is a winnable series, regardless of what everyone says. My guess is that at the very least, the Warriors wear down the Mavs enough to where they collapse later in the playoffs (if they make it passed us) My hope is that the Warrios can make the leap next year, with a few off season pickups and more gel-ing and beat Webber in the finals. How fitting woulf that be? Needless to say, I'm cheering against Detroit, and for the Warriors.
The way we score well on offense stems from our gambles on offense. We get most of our fast break points from deflections and steals and sometimes running down their throats off made buckets. We can do that all we want, but if the deflections are not there, then we get into some trouble. At that point our offense relies heavily on 3 pointers and the occassional drive in the lane by Monta or Baron...
Those stats HiRez posted definitely don't seem to bode well for us. I was reading an article today where Avery said that his team can run the break very well too and they're not afraid to run the break. I'm hoping this is true because if its an open court game they stand no chance, they must have missed that game where we ran the friggin Suns off the floor and made them try to slow it down and pound it inside. It also mentioned a nice statistic that said that the Mavs are 0-2 against the Warriors when they score over 100 points, they're 30-0 vs the rest of the league when scoring over 100 points. It seems like they may actually want to push the ball and try to score with us. One advantage the W's have is that Dallas is a jump shooting team. They have no dominating inside presence on offense and get most of their points in the paint from dribble penetration and cutters going to the rim. In the games we've played against them the strategy seemed to be that we let them take jumpers and rebound and run the ball, which is probably why their defense was bad against us. Also, I believe (I've heard Charles Barkely say it before too) that Dallas' defense really isn't very good. They can play defense well when focused but they don't have defense like the Spurs, Rockets, Bulls, etc. Its a fake defense really, it relies heavily on flops and usually has major holes in it somewhere with Dirk, Stackhouse, their small backcourt, slow C's. It also gets a lot worse with the big C's out of the game. In addition, Avery isn't a very good in-game coach. He prepares for games very well but if Nelson starts going to a matchup half way through the game Avery probably won't be quick to adjust if he does at all.
Here's the article I mentioned: <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post"> Don Nelson knows what the Mavericks have become under Avery Johnson. He'll try to get them to remember what they were. If he succeeds, the Golden State Warriors will be more than an entertaining diversion for the Mavericks in the first round. They'll be a viable threat. Mavericks/NBA Mavs blog | Inside the Mavs Season photos | Series schedule Mavs vs. Warriors Game 1: 8:30 p.m. Sun., AAC Only one goal Sherrington | Moore Tell Us: Which team wins the series? Wait over for this Warrior Notebooks: Mavs | Warriors No happy reunion for Cuban, Nellie No small challenge No magic number SportsDay predictions NBA playoff preview NBA: Scores | Standings More Mavericks The Warriors enter tonight's game against the Mavericks a relaxed bunch. The franchise's 13-year postseason exile is over. All Nelson wants his team to do is go out, have fun and score a lot of points. It's the same approach Nelson took with the Mavericks seven years ago, when they ended a decade-long playoff drought. The Mavericks are in a different place now. Johnson demands a level of defensive accountability Nelson didn't. There is more offensive structure to what the Mavericks do than the organized mayhem Nelson perpetuated. The Warriors want to crack that structure. Remind Dirk Nowitzki and Co. that they are jump shooters first. Help the Mavericks remember how much fun it was to kick it up a notch and kick the ball outside for those open 3-pointers. Part of Nelson's aw shucks brilliance is that he nudges opposing coaches out of their comfort zone. He forces them into matchups and rotations they normally wouldn't consider. "That's what Nellie does, create mismatches," Nowitzki said. "If he sees something work, he'll go to it 20 times in a row. That's Nellie ball." Nellie ball is starting Mario Elie at center against San Antonio's David Robinson. That is what Nelson did the last time Golden State won a playoff series, in the early 1990s. Elie isn't much taller than me. OK, he's a lot taller than me. But he's not much taller than Johnson. No coach improvises better than Nelson. If he distracts you from your game plan, watch out. Johnson is about preparation. Nelson is about intuition. He wants to deviate from the script, go off on an improvisational rant and see if the opposing coach can keep up. He knows that coach has prepared. He's more interested to find out how he reacts. "He makes adjustments on the fly," Golden State point guard Baron Davis said. "In order to play for him, you have to be sharp and be willing to make adjustments. "I never question it. He sees something we all don't see. We just go with the flow." Nelson wants teams to get caught up in the emotion of the game. He wants opponents to think with their testosterone rather than their brain. Every team wants to run. Every team likes to think it can run. But it can't, not at the speed and persistence of the Warriors or Phoenix Suns. Golden State is the siren that lured sailors to their doom on the rocks. If Greek mythology isn't your thing, think of the Warriors as that haunted house people insist on entering even though they know nothing good will come of it. The Warriors want the Mavericks to shoot quick and shoot often, confident the pace will take its toll by game's end and soften their defensive commitment. "Yeah, but you can't get baited into not taking the quick shot," Johnson said. "We're pretty good on the break ourselves. We do it a little bit differently. We don't stop and pop the 3's as much, but we like to get out on the break. "Sometimes when you play against teams like this, you tend to not want to run. We want to run." Here's the stat to file away: the Mavericks were 0-2 when they scored 100 or more points against the Warriors this season. They were 30-0 against the rest of the league. The Mavericks can run. But they can't run the way they did when Nelson was coach. "We've been a team that's been able to adjust," Johnson said. "Whatever happens in Game 1, we'll break down the tape and we'll look at what we need to adjust for Game 2. "We need to let this game play out ? then we'll know more about what we want to do as the series wears on. "We're a team that likes to grind it out and dig in defensively and try to force our will on teams as the series goes on." The Mavericks will be fine if they stay grounded in Johnson's philosophy. But if they become tempted by Nelson's style, the Mavericks will be the team that's not having any fun. </div> Source
<div class="quote_poster">AnimeFANatic Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">I would agree... but your pessimism (even despite making the playoffs) is so strong. I hope the Warriors or Suns prove you totally wrong haha.</div> Would you have bet your life on the Warriors making the playoffs in the last week? It's not pessism if there's a good chance the Warriors would fail... Hell even Nelson gave up on the team at one point. He told Mullin to get him some real players that can play with Baron and Jrich and Ellis. The warriors chances of winning is sometimes like playing Russian Roulette. You can be optimistic that 5 of the empty chambers can avoid blowing one's head off, but it's that 6th chamber that has a round in it that's the scary part. There's always doubt on the Warriors because they can play one sort of game, and then if something happens that takes away that game, they can't do much else. When the series ends, we'll see what we need to work on. I think we need to add to more than just shooting threes and we need to improve on defense, rebounding, and getting to the foul line. I think since having Sjax and Baron together, it makes those opportunities more plentiful since they can get to the line or they can hit somebody off the ball who will get fouled. But we need a power forward and perhaps another shooting guard or swingman. Anything that can get us some inside presence and continue to add to our triple threat type of perimeter game.
Updating my stats from last night for the whole weekend: Average points scored for all 16 teams: 90.4 Average points scored by the 8 winning teams: 95.0 Number of teams scoring over 100: 1 (100 points) I'm happy to eat my words (I said I doubt the Warriors could win scoring under 100)! That said, I'll be surprised if one or both of the Warriors and Mavs are not over 100 in the next few games, if not 110.
Um, I'm sorry but the Warriors DO play defense, just not the style of defense everyone is used to. Their defense is what fuels all their fast break points.
<div class="quote_poster">Kensaku Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Um, I'm sorry but the Warriors DO play defense, just not the style of defense everyone is used to. Their defense is what fuels all their fast break points.</div> I couldn't have said it better. Warriors lead the league in forced turnovers and steals, theres gotta be some defense to do that right?
Well if the Warriors can reach and not get those anticipation calls from the refs, then their defense looks much better. The good thing about the Warriors defense is that it is versatile. Due to playing different zones throughout the year due to all the roster changing, this team can play match-up zones, man-to-man, rotating stuff, and a whole bunch of things. As far as this series against the Mavericks, we have the scientist behind the creation of Dirk, Don Nelson, to really give Dirk fits. And though many experts and people outside the Warriors don't know this, the Warriors can put up some good defense in the post, just ask Tim Duncan, with Biedrins and Foyle.
<div class="quote_poster">Clif25 Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">And though many experts and people outside the Warriors don't know this, the Warriors can put up some good defense in the post, just ask Tim Duncan, with Biedrins and Foyle.</div> Don't forget to ask Yao either...
Man, anyone see the Rox vs. Jazz game today? T-mac and Yao kind of sucked, but together they shot 91% on free throws. That's pretty good when they're both shooting a horrid 30% on regular field goals, but they're getting to the foul line a lot. I wish we had two guys that can constantly get fouled and make them.
<div class="quote_poster">custodianrules2 Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Man, anyone see the Rox vs. Jazz game today? T-mac and Yao kind of sucked, but together they shot 91% on free throws. That's pretty good when they're both shooting a horrid 30% on regular field goals, but they're getting to the foul line a lot. I wish we had two guys that can constantly get fouled and make them.</div> I saw a little bit. I saw Jeff Van Gundy and thought he put on a halloween costume/mask. He looked like he was sick, being pretty pale and dark cricles under his eyes. It didn't seem like he has slept in a long time. Houston and Utah are funny teams. Houston would seem like a team that would blow you out most nights, and Utah just seems like they have to struggle every night just to win with the players on their roster. But somehow they play at a level where it kind of meets in the center where you wonder why Houston isn't playing better or winning by more, and on the other hand you wonder why Utah is even in the game. I guess it's just the Jeff Van Gundy, Jerry Sloan basketball styles. Houston is a scary team, in my opinion. Actually every team in the Western conference playoffs is scary to me, hah. There are some good teams out here. I don't know why people are so surprised that the Spurs and Mavericks lost their first games. Even the Suns had a scare until the 4th quarter I think. There is nothing easy about the West.
