The Cavaliers' Offseason

I must admit, this started as a fact-finding mission for a future article about the offseason, but it evolved. I finished it, so thought I might as well post it now:

Estimates:
Salary Cap = $55 million
Luxury tax = $68 million ($13 million over cap)

2007/08 Cavaliers Payroll

Exceptions available:
Bi-annual exception: $1.83 million
Mid-level exception: $5.4 million estimate

Guaranteed Salaries:

Player Salary ($ million)
L. James 12.46
L. Hughes 12.00
Z. Ilgauskas 10.14
D. Gooden 6.40
E. Snow 6.70
D. Marshall 5.57
D. Jones 4.17
I. Newble 3.44
D. Wesley 1.75
S. Brown 1.04
D. Gibson 0.69

Total 64.36

The Cavaliers also have a qualifying option to A. Pavlovic of $2.80 million, seeing their salary rise to $67.16 million, just $0.84 million above my predicted luxury tax. They will want to re-sign Anderson Varejao, but will be unable to with just $0.84 million. Therefore, they are likely to go over the luxury tax, or face losing Varejao. Even if they do not sign Varejao, they will still need to sign replacements and end up over the luxury tax limit.

I would argue that they should not definitely sign Pavlovic's qualifying offer sheet. If they let him go, they may be able to sign him for less than $2.8 million. And if not, it might not be too hard to find a player capable of similar things. Don't get me wrong, I like Sasha, and would like the Cavs to keep hold of him

This leaves Gilbert and the Cavs with just a few options:

1. Ignore the luxury tax - we want this team to win, and if that means going over the luxury tax limit, then so be it.

2. Attempt a trade utilising the expiring contract of specifically Ira Newble,
but perhaps David Wesley. The combined salary is a mere shade over $5 million, but some teams may bite. However, thse trades would most likely occur towards the trade level as, to be brutally honest, the two players would not add much skill to their respective teams. If they could add the ridiculous contract of Eric Snow to the equation, that would really benefit the Cavs, but it seems immensely unlikely that any team would want to pay such a contract. Actually, does anyone have Isaiah?s number??

If you ask me, the second option is the most likely. The Cavaliers should re-sign Varejao and then attempt to trade Wesley and Newble and maybe Snow. If possible, this should be for a veteran Point Guard capable of helping the Cavs to a title. However, this seems to idealistic and the harsh reality is that probably no team will be willing to bite on the two or three contracts, so the Cavaliers will be left squandering around $5 million over the salary cap (I think Varejao will want a similar contract to Drew Gooden's).

Then there comes the MLE and BAE. If Mr. Gilbert is willing to delve into his pockets to pay twice each exception (once for the player, once for the League). The main targets for the Cavaliers with these exceptions would be:

Brevin Knight (should Charlotte pass on their option). Knight has recently said that he is unsure whether the Bobcats will pick up on his option. If they don't, and Gilbert is willing to spend a lot of money, the Cavaliers really should try to secure Knight, who could help them a lot. If he can stay healthy. However, Cavs fans have heard this all before with Larry Hughes, so will they be willing to sign another player with a questionnable ability to stay healthy?

Chucky Atkins is an unrestriced Free Agent this season, and made $3 million last season. This should place him in the Cavs' niche. He is a good, not great, player who will no doubt be able to help the Cavs especially at their PG position. Whilst Daniel Gibson is showing promise, he simply does not have the veteran leadership required to take the Cavs all the way through the Playoffs. LeBron has leadership that could prove to be enough, but a veteran PG couldn't hurt, especially to aid Gibson's development. Atkins is a fairly consistent, and not flashy, player, capable of scoring from downtown and passing the ball around.

Gary Payton, too is an unrestricted Free Agent, but his services will be harder to acquire. Payton went to Miami to seek out the ever-elusive Championship ring. He won it last season. For a man who has accomplished so much in his career, it may be difficult to prevent him from retiring. However, the Cavs and the Heat each have one thing worth sticking around for. Young superstars and teams capable of winning it all. If this can be enough to entice Payton, the Cavs should sign him. I somewhat doubt it, however.

Mo Williams is not exactly a playoff veteran PG, but he is an available solid PG, who should be affordable, at least under the MLE. He can score, he can pass, but he, too, can miss chunks of seasons with injury. He is just another name to be added into the equation, but I doubt if he will be signed by the Cavs.

So, to conclude, here are my thoughts for what the Cavs should do this season, and then what I think they will do:

They should:
Sign Pavlovic's qualifying offer.
Sign Varejao to a contract worth around $5.5 million next season.
Sign Brevin Knight or Mo Williams to the MLE.
Sign a couple of other players to minimum contracts.

They are more likely to:
Sign Pavlovic's qualifying offer.
Sign Varejao to a larger contract, between $6 and 7 million.
Not sign a veteran PG.
Sign some players to minimum (or very low) deals to minimise the luxury tax penalty.

 

The Cavs need:

a legit starting PG who can D up and knock down shots.

An athletic, rangy 2 who can play both ends of the floor.

A bench.

A consistent inside threat who can score in the paint and create more room for LeBron to operate.

 

Yes, well, I wrote this before the numerous great performances by Boobie. If the Cavs can trade Larry Hughes, even if its for expiring contracts or something, that will be a success, as he has not proven to be the star player who should have been.