...What It Means for the Warriors: <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">Every time I put up a new mock draft (look for our newest one on Tuesday), I get a lot of feedback from readers who wonder how I put it together and how it differs from the Top 100. This is how it works: Both pieces are reported pieces. In other words, I talk with NBA scouts and executives to get a sense of: Brian Spurlock/US Presswire There's a lot for scouts to like about Greg Oden's game. A. Which teams like which players (mock draft). B. What the consensus is among all 30 NBA teams about who the best players in the draft are (Top 100). I use the word consensus lightly. Often, even NBA GMs and scouts employed by the same team can't agree on their internal rankings of players. "I fight with my scouts constantly," one prominent GM told me. "Everyone has their own ideas, their own preferences, their own methodology. There really is no consensus and, I hate to say it, I'm not sure there's even any real right or wrong." Obviously both lists are imperfect because the draft is a bit of an inexact science. NBA teams do more than just watch prospects play games. They work out players, give them psychological tests, do background checks and conduct personal interviews. All of this factors into the process and could change opinions. Factor in the ranking wars with another age-old debate -- do you draft for need or for the best player available -- and it's no surprise that the draft can be so volatile. Many teams take into account holes at certain positions (i.e. the team has no small forward) or coaching/system preferences (i.e. the Suns draft players who can fit into Mike D'Antoni's up-tempo shoot-first-ask-questions-later system) when making their decisions. To make sense of disparate rankings and debates over team needs, several teams who have been very successful in the draft employ what I call a "Tier System" of ranking players. Instead of getting an exact order from one to 60 of the best players in the draft, they group players, based on overall talent level, into tiers. Then, the team ranks the players inside each tier based on team need. This system allows teams to draft not only the best player available, but also the player who best fits a team's individual needs. So what do the tiers look like this year? After talking to several NBA GMs and scouts who employ this system for their teams, I've put together these tiers. (Because the teams do not want to divulge their draft rankings publicly, the teams have been left anonymous.) TIER 1 Greg Oden Kevin Durant Note: There seems to be a clear preference for Oden among GMs, but everyone agrees both players have superstar potential and are clearly the consensus top two in the draft. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TIER 2 Corey Brewer Mike Conley Jeff Green Al Horford Yi Jianlian Brandan Wright Note: One team expanded this tier to include all of Tier 3, essentially making Tier 2 the third through 12th picks, but most everyone else made a cut right before the players in Tier 3. I'd also note that there was near consensus that Horford is the third-best player in the draft. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TIER 3 Spencer Hawes Joakim Noah Al Thornton Julian Wright Note: Tier 3 represents the final four players in the top 12. Every team I spoke with had the same 12 players in the top 12. That's a pretty amazing consensus for this deep in the draft. It also shows the depth of the draft itself. Last year, Tiers 1, 2 and 3 consisted of a total of seven players. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TIER 4 Javaris Crittenton Acie Law Rodney Stuckey Nick Young Thaddeus Young Note: There was a clear preference for the Youngs in Tier 4, with one team saying its Tier 3 was expanded to include both players. Not everyone had Crittenton or Stuckey in Tier 4; some had them in Tier 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TIER 5 Morris Almond DeVon Hardin Josh McRoberts Gabe Pruitt Jason Smith Tiago Splitter Sean Williams Note: The consensus really starts to break up here. Some have Smith and Williams ranked higher. Some have McRoberts and Hardin ranked lower. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TIER 6 Arron Afflalo Marco Belinelli Derrick Byars Daequan Cook Glen Davis Jared Dudley Nick Fazekas Rudy Fernandez Marc Gasol Taurean Green Petteri Koponen Marcus Williams Note: If you do the math, 36 players are on the list. Why 36 guys for 30 slots? I included in Tier 6 every player that a team told me was in its top 30. I suspect had I polled every team, this number would have expanded to around 40 players. </div> link First of all, I think this is an awesome primer for anyone interested in how teams really evaluate the draft. It's basically how I've always thought about the draft (i.e. it's not either draft for need or best available player, it's a combination of both), but I've never had a system for it like this. (btw, mods, this is a free article on Insider, so there's no problem with posting it here in its entirety.) Anyway, based on these tiers, and the fact that Devon Hardin has announced he's going back to Cal (Go Bears!), the Warriors are looking at the six remaining players in Tier 6 for the #18 pick. As you can see, there are 17 players in the first five tiers, so the Warriors would have their choice of the Tier 6 players (provided that someone from Tier 5 doesn't fall to them, which is very possible). It is interesting to note that Ford (and the GM's he talked to) is talking about all the same guys we've been talking about the Warriors drafting. So, the Warriors needs would probably be: 1. pf 2. pg 3. sf/sg Which would make their draft board: 1. Smith 2. Splitter 3. McRoberts 4. Williams 5. Pruitt 6. Almond Well, the first four spots are up for debate. I suppose the wildcard in all this is Williams. New Jersey supposedly likes him at #17, but they seem to be the only team that has him ranked that high. I haven't heard any rumors about him going to the teams drafting #18 to #24. Smith probably fits the Warriors style the best, but the other three big men also seem to fit the style fairly well as they're all big men who are good to great athletes. The other thing I found really interesting about this article is the separation it makes between Tiers 2 and 3. This is the first I've heard of such a separation between those guys and I thought it was pretty surprising to see that every team but one had made the same distinction.
I am very leary of wanting Smith, in fact i say stay away. Being a MWC guy, i have seen this guy play and i just didnt see it. The MWC has produced Bogut.... and a guy i always thought we should have grabbed Justin Williams..... but i am thinking Arujo when i think of Jason Smith..... a draft bust. Arujo wasa monster in the mwc, he dominated games, he passed the ball like WEbber, he powered his way to the hole and he shot the ball fairly well short range...... what happened at the next level? i think Smith, was not even as dominant in games as Arujo will even be less of a factor.
<div class="quote_poster">boogielew Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">I am very leary of wanting Smith, in fact i say stay away. Being a MWC guy, i have seen this guy play and i just didnt see it. The MWC has produced Bogut.... and a guy i always thought we should have grabbed Justin Williams..... but i am thinking Arujo when i think of Jason Smith..... a draft bust. Arujo wasa monster in the mwc, he dominated games, he passed the ball like WEbber, he powered his way to the hole and he shot the ball fairly well short range...... what happened at the next level? i think Smith, was not even as dominant in games as Arujo will even be less of a factor.</div> The thing I hear repeatedly about Smith is that he was really misused at Colorado State. They tried to make him play back to the basket while he is more of a face the basket/high post guy. Now, I will say that I don't think Smith's rebounding numbers will necessarily translate to the NBA the way a guy like Horford's will, because he doesn't have the bulk to hold position. However, there are plenty of thin guys who are great rebounders in the league though (Garnett, Bosh, Camby, Chandler, and Biedrins to name a few). As for Araujo, his problem was always whether he was quick enough to play in the NBA. He always out muscled guys in college, but he couldn't get away with that in the NBA. I'd rather have a quick big man who needs to add strength than a big big man who needs to get quicker.
<div class="quote_poster">AlleyOop Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">What about Fazekas?</div> I like Fazekas a lot, but what I said above goes for him too. His problem is quickness. He projects to have a similar game to Troy Murphy, but he's less explosive, and if Murphy wasn't quick enough to play in Nelson's system, then I have a hard time seeing Fazekas suceeding. I do think he could have a career similar to Matt Bullard where he's a big guy that hangs out around the three point line in a half court offense. But, I just have a hard time seeing him being able to keep up with the Warriors' run and gun style.
<div class="quote_poster">AlleyOop Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">What about Fazekas?</div> I know this question isn't really addressed to me, but man I don't like Fazekas. I think he's going to be too too weak and slow for the nba. If somebody plays him physical or he has to take an off-balance shot, he's not going to be coordinated or quick enough to recover. If we're going with slow dude, I much prefer a heavier guy with a mediocre wingspan like Big Baby At least we can argue the guy's got good finesse skills and he's incredibly strong and coordinated for a dude that heavy. My ideal situation is that we can draft a good mix of physical skills and excellent basketball skills in two or three things. But that's easier said than done.
<div class="quote_poster">custodianrules2 Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">I know this question isn't really addressed to me, but man I don't like Fazekas. I think he's going to be too too weak and slow for the nba. If somebody plays him physical or he has to take an off-balance shot, he's not going to be coordinated or quick enough to recover. If we're going with slow dude, I much prefer a heavier guy with a mediocre wingspan like Big Baby At least we can argue the guy's got good finesse skills and he's incredibly strong and coordinated for a dude that heavy. My ideal situation is that we can draft a good mix of physical skills and excellent basketball skills in two or three things. But that's easier said than done. </div> Fazekas usually got double teamed,bumped and banged---yet his production was quite good anyhow. When you are 3 time POY....you get everything a defense can throw. Slow? I never saw Fazekas as slow or seriously short of quickness. I DO consider McRoberts slow now. Fazekas has especially good hands and deceptive agility,footwork,that lets him score inside efficiently. He shot a good % from 3-yet seldom took more than 2-3 3pt shots in a game. It's weird how Hawes is not tagged as slow...yet Fazekas is. Hawes definitely looked slow to me and his rebounding was pretty mediocre for a lotto big man. ALL he has are some scorer skills-and N Fazekas has those-but better,and was at the top of college ball as a rebounder. Sean Williams? Oh,yeah,a frequent screw up,who's got crappy fundamentals and a poor work ethic. The sort of risk one might take in rd 2.
<div class="quote_poster">REREM Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Fazekas usually got double teamed,bumped and banged---yet his production was quite good anyhow. When you are 3 time POY....you get everything a defense can throw. Slow? I never saw Fazekas as slow or seriously short of quickness. I DO consider McRoberts slow now. Fazekas has especially good hands and deceptive agility,footwork,that lets him score inside efficiently. He shot a good % from 3-yet seldom took more than 2-3 3pt shots in a game. It's weird how Hawes is not tagged as slow...yet Fazekas is. Hawes definitely looked slow to me and his rebounding was pretty mediocre for a lotto big man. ALL he has are some scorer skills-and N Fazekas has those-but better,and was at the top of college ball as a rebounder. Sean Williams? Oh,yeah,a frequent screw up,who's got crappy fundamentals and a poor work ethic. The sort of risk one might take in rd 2.</div> I just don't think Fazekas has it. I didn't think Hawes was fast either btw. And we won't know for sure about any of these guys until they play in the nba. But my feeling is that college ball doesn't mean anything for this kind of player when it comes to the nba. Mostly everyone in the nba is quick and strong and extremely long. Plus, those slow, finesse guys that were known for getting whistles and being able to get off an easier shot against college D, will be in for a rude awakening at the next level. Yeah, those guys play smarter than the average, incomplete lotto player, but I think their strengths will be stripped away pretty quickly on most nights. When we talk about Adam Morrison, Mike Dunleavy Jr, Keith Van Horn, Rafael Araujo, I think about guys who were a mismatch in college, but weren't great athletes. They succeeded in a college system where most players weren't big or super strong or super quick. Out of all of them, the only guy I felt was worth picking high was Adam Morrison, but there was definite risk because of his foot speed and size for a shooting guard or strength for small forward. I wouldn't mind some of the slowest athletes as long as they got all-around skills + 2 top tier skills, just so long as they have great lower body strength, aggressiveness, good hands, and nice balance when using their finesse games. Some of these guys can never match up to the quickness and physical style of contact in the nba. Some guys can't even get off a good shot against such competition. And then they become one-dimensional stand-around set shooters or guys who tend to avoid contact to get off a better shot and they end up missing a lot worse than if they had just taken the contact and got the foul call. The only exceptions to slow draft picks is if they are very, very big like over 7 feet tall or they got everything else minus the athleticism such as skill, strength, balance, wingspan, attitude, and high bball IQ/fundamentals + very few weaknesses other than being a bit slow. Heck, I think Big Baby is rated lower than Fazekas on the draft board and I'd still rather take Big Baby over him. But that's just me. It's all about power and finesse combination even if much of it won't translate to the pros (being that he's small, average wingspan, and not that fast compared to lighter weight players). Everything else I like because he's truly unique and pretty well polished. BTW, I really like this draft tier system. I'd be happy if we could pull out a Kirk Hinrich or a Joe Johnson from this draft.
