Yao Ming #1 in League

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets' started by Hunter, Oct 10, 2007.

  1. Hunter

    Hunter Administrator Staff Member Administrator

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'></p>

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    #11 Yao Ming | C</p>
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    <td style="width: 75px">[​IMG]</td>
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    <div><span class="bi">Born: </span>September 12, 1980
    <div>Shanghai, China</div>
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    <div><span class="bi">Height</span>: 7-6</div>
    <div><span class="bi">Weight</span>: 310 lbs.</div>
    <div><span class="bi">Pronounced</span>: Yow</div>
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    <div><span class="bi">Age</span>: 27</div>
    <div><span class="bi">Pos</span>: C</div>
    <div>Drafted: 2002, 1st round, 1st pick by Rockets
    <div><span class="bi">2008 Salary:</span> $13,762,775</div>
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    <div class="bi">FANTASY</div>
    <div class="bi">Percent Owned (Week +/-):</div>
    <div>NBA: 0.0% (<span>0.0</span>%)</div>
    <div></div>
    <div class="bi">Avg. Draft Position:</div>
    <div>NBA: UD</div>
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    <div class="tablemed" style="padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-bottom: 3px; padding-top: 3px">PPG25 | RPG9.4 | BPG2</div>
    <div class="tablesm redfont" style="padding-right: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 3px">Status alert: Yao will likely play more in the high post in new coach Rick Adelman's system this year, but he'll also spend plenty of time down low, the Houston Chronicle reports. (Oct 6)</div>
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    <td colspan="12">Hollinger Player Profile | Stats Key</td>
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    <td>SEASON</td>
    <td>FG%</td>
    <td>FT%</td>
    <td>P/40</td>
    <td>R/40</td>
    <td>A/40</td>
    <td>TS%</td>
    <td>Ast</td>
    <td>TO</td>
    <td>Usg</td>
    <td>Reb</td>
    <td>PER</td>
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    <td>2002-03</td>
    <td>.498</td>
    <td>.811</td>
    <td>18.5</td>
    <td>11.3</td>
    <td>2.3</td>
    <td>57.0</td>
    <td>10.7</td>
    <td>13.5</td>
    <td>20.4</td>
    <td>16.3</td>
    <td>20.71</td>
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    <td>2003-04</td>
    <td>.522</td>
    <td>.809</td>
    <td>21.3</td>
    <td>10.9</td>
    <td>1.8</td>
    <td>58.6</td>
    <td>7.9</td>
    <td>13.2</td>
    <td>22.4</td>
    <td>16.1</td>
    <td>21.96</td>
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    <td>2004-05</td>
    <td>.552</td>
    <td>.783</td>
    <td>23.9</td>
    <td>10.9</td>
    <td>1.0</td>
    <td>61.4</td>
    <td>4.2</td>
    <td>13.5</td>
    <td>23.6</td>
    <td>15.9</td>
    <td>23.25</td>
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    <td>2005-06</td>
    <td>.519</td>
    <td>.853</td>
    <td>26.1</td>
    <td>11.9</td>
    <td>1.7</td>
    <td>59.2</td>
    <td>6.5</td>
    <td>11.3</td>
    <td>26.4</td>
    <td>17.5</td>
    <td>25.78</td>
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    <td>2006-07</td>
    <td>.516</td>
    <td>.862</td>
    <td>29.6</td>
    <td>11.1</td>
    <td>2.3</td>
    <td>60.1</td>
    <td>7.5</td>
    <td>13.2</td>
    <td>29.9</td>
    <td>16.0</td>
    <td>26.54</td>
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    <td>2007-08 (projected)</td>
    <td>.512</td>
    <td>.879</td>
    <td>29.0</td>
    <td>11.0</td>
    <td>2.3</td>
    <td>60.56</td>
    <td>7.74</td>
    <td>11.78</td>
    <td>28.85</td>
    <td>16.03</td>
    <td>28.51</td>
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    2006-07 season: Yao continued his steady improvement by establishing himself as an MVP candidate before a broken leg cost him 34 games. Nonetheless, his numbers for the season were awesome.

    Yao averaged 29.1 points per 40 minutes, and did it quite efficiently. He hit 51.6 percent from the floor and, perhaps more importantly, 86.2 percent from the line. His proficiency from the stripe is an underrated weapon, as opponents frequently resorted to fouling him as a means of stopping his lethal post game. Overall, Yao ranked eighth among centers in true shooting percentage and 19th overall -- pretty lofty heights for a guy with the top usage rate at the position.

    Despite his immense size, Yao is only an average rebounder. He doesn't move well laterally so he doesn't get to balls out of his zone; the result was the 27th-best rebound rate among centers, which is solid but slightly disappointing.

    Yao had a rough playoff series against Utah, shooting only 44.0 percent and averaging nearly five turnovers a game. Worst of all, he had all kinds of trouble staying with Carlos Boozer at the defensive end, a big reason the Jazz were able to win in seven games.

    Scouting report: Once Yao catches the ball on the block he's virtually impossible to stop because he's so tall and is such a good short-range shooter. That's particularly true from the right block, where he uses what is basically a standing turnaround jumper -- he catches the ball with his body half turned and just shoots immediately. He also has a step-back jumper that's even more impossible to block than his normal shots. Additionally, he's getting wiser at using trickery such as shot fakes and leaning in to draw fouls, something he never used to do.

    Teams dealt with Yao by either double-teaming or fronting; either was preferable to just letting him catch and shoot. The Warriors were particularly effective fronting him in a late-season game, partly because they didn't have to respect Houston's other shooters and could rotate help from the weak side. The Rockets hope their offseason additions will change that.

    Doubling was the more common strategy, and Yao needs to get better at dealing with swarming hands. Though he's a willing passer, there are still times he seems befuddled by quicker teams' rotations.

    2007-08 outlook: Check out Yao's numbers on a season-by-season basis -- they've gone steadily upward. He figures to keep heading in that direction; in fact, the projections foresee him having the league's top player efficiency rating this season.

    The biggest obstacle for Yao this season isn't performance, it's health: He's missed 59 games over the past two seasons. While much of that seemed to be the result of freakish, isolated mishaps, there's a real concern that all the pounding on his 7-6 frame will take an early toll.

    Nonetheless, if you were looking for MVP candidates, this would be a good place to start. The Rockets' roster improvements mean they have a great shot at challenging the Spurs-Mavs-Suns elite that has ruled the West the past few seasons. If Yao's continued ascendance goes along with it, as the projections suggest, there's a real chance we'll have our fourth straight foreign-born MVP winner.


    Most similar at age: Zydrunas Ilgauskas</td>
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    <td colspan="2">Key to Player Statistics</td>
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    <td width="50%">FG% Field-goal Percentage

    FT% Free-throw Percentage

    P/40 Points per 40 minutes

    R/40 Rebounds per 40 minutes

    A/40 Assists per 40 minutes

    TS% True Shooting Percentage calculates what a player&rsquo;s shooting percentage would be if we accounted for free throws and 3-pointers. True Shooting Percentage = (Total points x 50) divided by [(FGA + (FTA x 0.44)]

    Ast Assist Ratio is the percentage of a player&rsquo;s possessions that ends in an assist. Assist Ratio = (Assists x 100) divided by [(FGA + (FTA x 0.44) + Assists + Turnovers]</td>
    <td width="50%">Reb Rebound Rate is the percentage of missed shots that a player rebounds. Rebound Rate = (Rebounds x Team Minutes) divided by [Player Minutes x (Team Rebounds + Opponent Rebounds)]

    PER Player Efficiency Rating is my overall rating of a player&rsquo;s per-minute statistical production. The league average is 15.00 every season.

    TO Turnover Ratio is the percentage of a player&rsquo;s possessions that end in a turnover. Turnover Ratio = (Turnover x 100) divided by [(FGA + (FTA x 0.44) + Assists + Turnovers]

    Usg Usage Rate is the number of possessions a player uses per 40 minutes. Usage Rate = {[FGA + (FT Att. x 0.44) + (Ast x 0.33) + TO] x 40 x League Pace} divided by (Minutes x Team Pace)</td>
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    <td colspan="2">Most similar at age is the player who was the most similar to this one at the same age using my Similarity Scores formula. Similarity Scores compare players on several statistical and physical criteria to find the best comparisons from the recent past. These are also used to help generate the projected stats for 2007-08, which appear at the bottom of the chart for each player who played more than 500 minutes.</td>
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  2. durvasa

    durvasa JBB Rockets Fan

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    Whoah, you can actually post a full HTML page in here? That's a pretty cool feature.</p>

    Yao has always had a very good PER. Even in his rookie year, it was over 20. But Hollinger's projections don't know that Yao will be a new offensive system, and his role will change. Does his efficiency go down playing more on the high post than the low blocks? What about the assists and turnovers?</p>

    This is a good place for us to make predictions on what stats Yao will have next year. Hollinger has his stats (per minute) being roughly the same, with the turnovers going down being the most significant difference. I'm expecting something like this:</p>

    35 mpg, 26 ppg, 10 rpg, 3.5 apg, 3.5 tpg, 2 bpg, 50 FG%, 85 FT%.</p>

    If he can sustain those type of numbers while playing 70+ games, and the Rockets can win around 55 games, I think he can be a real MVP candidate for us. How awesome would that be?</p>
     
  3. cpawfan

    cpawfan Monsters do exist

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (durvasa)</div><div class='quotemain'></p>

    Whoah, you can actually post a full HTML page in here? That's a pretty cool feature.</p>

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    Yep, it is a full WYSIWYG editor that handles cut and paste very well. Almost anything you copy will show up although there are times when fonts sizes are controlled by the CSS of a web site and the sizes don't get copied properly.</p>

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  4. Hunter

    Hunter Administrator Staff Member Administrator

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    I think that its going to take some time to see if his numbers and efficiency will increase/decrease based off him changing position. By moving to the high post, most of his shots will be squared up to the basket and not having to drop back or fade-away that he is prone to do at the block. Yao is not a power player in the sense that he is going to drop-step and dunk on you everytime he gets the ball in the low block. Knowing that - I think it will come down to Yao's mid-range game vs. his short fadeaway from the low block.</p>

    With referring to turnovers, I think they could go both ways as well. Being at the low-block he is more vulnerable to the double team since half of his body is turned away from the court and big players hate getting smothered by quicker players with active hands. On the other hand, by playing on the high block, I can defintely see Yao getting into trouble trying to force some passes towards the paint that really shouldn't be made. Benefit to the high block is that he won't get double teamed there.Just like shooting - it could go either way.</p>

    As far as assists, I defintely think they will go up with him playing at the high block just for the sheer reason that he will be in the middle of the court and as a result he will have more angles and possibilities to make that extra pass for the special play.</p>

    I would agree with most of your stats durvasa but I really hope he can improve on his rebounding and get up to the 12 rpg number(even though I don't think he will). My projections:</p>

    35mpg, 26ppg, 11rpb, 3apg,4tpg,2 bpg, 52% fg, 85% FT</p>

    Ask me again after the NBA season starts and I see him play 5 or 6 regular NBA season games and I might have totally different numbers. [​IMG]</p>

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  5. durvasa

    durvasa JBB Rockets Fan

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    I said before that Yao would play more on high post than the low blocks. Actually, I don't think that will happen. He'll play more on the high post than he did under JVG (which was basically never), but I still expect a majority of his FGA will come out of the low post.</p>
     

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