[Feigen's Blog 10/16] For starters, will everything old be new again?

durvasa · Oct 16, 2007

http://blogs.chron.com/nba/2007/10/for_sta...erything_o.html

Feigen speculates about who the starters might be. I think the smart money, at this point, is on Rafer-McGrady-Battier-Scola-Yao. But, there is a possibility that Chuck's used in the starting lineup for "fit" reasons. After all the acquisitions we made, it would be funny if Adelman actually sticks with the same starters JVG used last year.

Adelman does seem to be favoring Yao-Scola-Chuck as his bigs in the PF-C rotation, with Mutombo getting some minutes against the bigger teams. It looks like Butler is out of the loop.

Of course, there is still the possibility that Mike James is used in the starting lineup instead of Alston, but I think Adelman prefers him off the bench.

My prediction: Mike, Bonzi, and Chuck to be the main bench guys this year, with Adelman using Francis and Head more sporadically. Mutombo isn't going to see the court most games, and Butler probably won't either unless there's injury or its garbage time. Between Francis and Head, at least one of them is going to be unhappy about the lack of minutes (*cough* Francis).

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Some Q/As for this blog:

BondieBoy writes: It is very possible to have the same starting line up as last season because it is the safest option to have and a pretty good one too. We were never doubt the quality of our 5 starter before except Alston. But apparently we haven't found one better than Alston, not Mike nor Stevie. Beside, we are so deep this season that we will not be limited to start with those 5 players, and plus the starters don't have to play 36-40 minutes everynight anymore and what we have is fresh starters on everygame. Its great to be deep.

One question Jon, since we heard the rave about Adelman stating that Alston is a "perfect" mix along with Mike, Stevie, and Aaron, so that leave guards like Luther Head, and Kirk Snyder. Head definitely will not play a 3, so what will happen to him?

(Luther could fit well as a backup at two, with Bonzi picking up the backup minutes at three. Both can get more or fewer minutes based on how it goes and on match ups. But then, that leaves Steve, Rafer and Mike all splitting point guard minutes. That doesn't sound quite right, either. We'll see. As I said in the blog, it has already changed from what we expected. I would imagine it will further sort itself out with five preseason games left. -- Jonathan)



David H. writes: There's certainly a lot of positive talks from the Rockets about Rafer right now. Are these sincere praises or do you suspect they are trying to make him sound better in a trade?

Also, do you think they will have to trade at least one of the small guards in order for (1) players to be happy with their minutes and (2) guys to get consistent enough minutes with the same teammates to get a chemistry going? With the way things are, there will be guys who had played good minutes befoe who will have to be left out of the rotation altogether.

(I don't think Tracy McGrady, Yao Ming or Luther head are trying to improve Alston's stock for a trade. And Adelman only spoke of him because I asked. Whether they can all coexist might be up in the air. It does seem someone will be left out. How well that works might depend on who does not play and how much the Rockets win. -- Jonathan)




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blue devil writes: just a thought: instead of just cutting the players, wouldn't it be wise to send them with "cash consideration" to a team like charlotte, who don't like to spend money and usually struggle to even reach the nba minimum (or more generally teams under the salary cap). they would use the cash consideration to cut the players, and the cut players' salaries will remain on their cap, helping them to reach the nba minimum. on the other hand we will get trade exceptions, which gives us additional flexibility, in case we would like to spend it on someone, in the future.

Obviously it can be combined with players(Chase, Snyder) other teams want play for them, rather that acquiring to cut.

(In other words, you would be buying trade exceptions for about $1 million each. It would be a good idea when having to pay someone more than that much to cut him, but I don't think there are many teams that want or need to pay the Rockets' castoffs their full salaries. -- Jonathan)



Ghost-in-the-System writes: If Adelman decides to go with Hayes, this will be one of the reason/problem why Scola didn't want to go to San Antonio. He wants to start. Now, I'm on the same page as you - start Hayes until otherwise.

Indeed, it does make sense for Scola to sub in when Motombo relieves Yao. Then again, TMac usually stays on the court when Yao steps off. Hayes plays well with TMac and TMac always hit him up with some nice passes for quick layups or putbacks. What do you think ?

(As I said, my guess is that Scola would start and remain in the game until Yao returns, either as a center or with Mutombo. Another possibilities, depending on matchups, could be shifting Battier to four when Yao sits, with Dikembe and Bonzi Wells coming in. -- Jonathan)


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Brian Faultz: How are they going to distribute the minutes if Rafer gets time? That's going to leave one or several of our talented guards out of the loop. I think it would be a waste if Francis, James and Bonzi get significant minutes and Head get at least 10...not to mention Brooks.....or that Tmac and Battier already command a significant amount of time.

(All good points, although I think Brooks will have to wait. This could change a lot by Oct. 30. -- Jonathan)


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Peter writes: Could you please elaborate a little why the Rockets has not traded away Synder (who doesn't have any chance to play), Novak (who has never got a chance to show what he has), Butler (who seemed to be between 4 and 5, Landry (whom Rockets paid high price to get but little chance to play) and Harris (who was mentioned a few times but never sure where he would belong)... one can make argument for anyone to stay, but really, one cannot expect all of them to stay. Who is likely to be out?

(They have not found trades they would like. They would love to trim the roster with deals in which they take back fewer players than they receive, but it takes two to make a deal. -- Jonathan)
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Alvin writes: it looks like the old unit is still the best combo out there. It may not be the best, but its the most solid.

Out of topic question, whats your uptake in the kobe senario, and is rox organization interested in him?

(Of course, every GM would have interest. The Lakers would want someone young with star potential. The Timberwolves did not trade Kevin Garnett for Paul Pierce, they got Al Jefferson and Gerald Green, along with a good young player in Ryan Gomes, with two first-round picks. I don't see Al Jefferson or Gerald Green sitting around on the Rockets' roster. The Lakers are not trading Bryant, whom they consider the best player in the NBA, for a 10-year veteran with an unpredictable back who happens to play the same position. How does that make them a better team? That said, if the owner insists as he did when they traded Shaq, all logic can be forgotten. -- Jonathan)


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Paul writes: I have no problem with Adelman starting the same five from last year. As I said before Rafer can run an offense, but the problem for him was logging alot of minutes and being counted on to score. Now he won't have those problems. He doesn't need to play 40+ minutes and all he needs to do is distribute the ball. If you look at our team we have an easy 9-10 starters on the roster. Though I feel Chuck is not a true starter, but he fits well with Yao and Tmac, which makes it possible for him to start. Ginobili could start for the Spurs but doesn't because of his instant offense off the bench and Stackhouse could start for the Mavericks but doesn't for the same reason, change of pace players. You have to use your starters against them because most bench players can't match up with them. Now imagine having 4 players coming off your bench who could be starters (Francis, James, Wells, Scola). Deke started for us last year and could be a strater for some teams because of his rebounding and defense. Then we have Head who is a heck of a six man. Our starting five had the best (+-) than any other team in the league last year. So as long as TMac and Yao are healthy and can score we will be alright. You need hustle players on the floor with them which is what Hayes Battier and Alston brings. So to say the least, I see no problem with starting the same five from last year and bringing our "other starting five" off the bench. 

(I'm glad someone brought up that plus/minus stat. I remembered that after I filed last night, and decided someone would come through. As I said, nothing is decided, but I'm glad you got that in there for me, Paul. -- Jonathan)


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John J. writes: I have no problem if we have the same starting five this year -- even with weaker links like Hayes and Alston in the lineup. I've never had a beef with either outside of the fact that they wound up playing too much. Rafer is a fine point guard and Chuck is a decent 4, but they shouldn't be on the floor 40+ minutes a game. Now they don't have to be. That's the key. Bring on the West!

(Actually, Chuck has never played 40 minutes in an NBA game, never mind play that much regularly as you suggest he did. But I get your point. -- Jonathan)


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Terry writes: What about switching Francis to shooting guard? He's got a shooting guard's mentality & his experience as a point guard would be a bonus.

(I've never agreed with the argument that he has a shooting guard's mentality. For years, the Rockets tried to get him to look for his shot more often. One of his best attributes with the Rockets was setting up teammates for open outside shots. In the Rockets' offense so far this month, the point guard and shooting guard have had pretty much the same duties, so the difference between the positions would be defensively. I do think Steve defends bigger guards better than he does quicker guards, and I believe you will continue to see him more often designated as the 'two.' -- Jonathan)



Diezel writes: The thing you have to love about ADELMAN that is different from JVG. Is that he has no problem shifting the starters from game to game. He understands the NBA as it stands to today, is about matchups.
He could start HAYES/SCOLA/BONZI/BATTIER at PF If he wanted, its all about who they're playing and what the game plan is for the night. The position that I am most concerned with is C. YAO still doesnt have an adequate backup. I like DIKEMBE but he's not going to shoot 15 ft jumpshoots, and he isnt a good passer in the high post. I still havent heard too much said about JACKIE BUTLER, How has his performance been in the scrimmages ?

I think the ROX will cut JREED/MIKE HARRIS/JLUCAS/BOBBY SURA/ and will look to trade SNYDER/NOVAK. NOVAK is too good of a shooter to just cut, somebody will pick him up and send him to their D-LEAGUE squad to get some needed experience on the court, and SNYDER has the athleticism to play in the NBA and be a decent rotation player.

(Adelman has never been a guy that liked changing starters from game-to-game and has said this month he does not intend to do that. Like Van Gundy, however, I imagine he will have to consider matchups with his backup centers. He might have more of those decisions at guard, given the Rockets' depth at the position, something that has obviously changed since last season. -- Jonathan)



Kodi writes: Are there any specific players/player the Rockets want to trade for? What is this team lacking and who's out there that will fill that need? My gut tells me the Rockets are only one player away from being a contender with the Spurs and the Suns for nba championchip.

(At this point, they are interested in trimming their roster and payroll. They seem to be pretty happy with the moves they made. -- Jonathan)



CR writes: How good of a defender would you say Rafer is? What are his strengths/weaknesses on defense?

(He's pretty good on the ball, and very disciplined within a game plan. He lacks strength, which at his position actually comes up more often when dealing with screens than the one-on-one matchup. -- Jonathan)



Cortez writes: We do have alot of guards both PG/SG who are interchangeable, although its a good problem to have, the reality is that not everybody is going to work out. The real test as to who will " shape up " or be " shipped out " will be when the ROX face adversity. I'm with DIEZEL on who will step up and be YAO's backup ? I havent heard ADELMAN or the media, speak on JACKIE BUTLER's developmetn in this offense or whether or not he has even been scrimmaging/practicing with the team ? I do know his conditioning/weight has been an issue, and is one of the reasons the SPURS thru him in the SCOLA deal. He reminds me so much of MIKE SWEENEY, he has the physical tools and talent, but his work ethic is poor. Could he be also on the cutting block ? So far we have...

SURA - $1M (Sure to be cut, If they dont what's the point of keeping him on the roster, If his contract is counting on the cap already ?)

JLUCAS - $???? ( I dont know how much he makes but its safe to say that he will be cut. BROOKS has a guaranteed contract for the next 3yrs. They dont need two under 6ft PG's.

JREED - Because his contract isnt guaranteed,and because doesnt figure into the regular rotation,the ROX dont need him, he's gone as well.

MIKE HARRIS - Same as REED, both players will more than likely catch on with a team in the D-LEAGUE and move on to a team that has a better opportunity for them.

JACKIE BUTLER - I havent heard nothing about him or how he has played, or whether or not he even is in the ROX game plan for the future. Because of these things, one can only assume he's gone.

(Butler is practicing, but I have not heard much. Conditioning is an issue. Reed's contract is guaranteed. Rookie contracts such as Brooks' are now guaranteed for two years, not three. Teams can extend them to a third and then to a fourth season if they choose. -- Jonathan)


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Jonothan H writes: Please God tell me you are not serious. The biggest problems with this team last year was no bench production, and the fact that Rafer Alston and Chuck Hayes started. The only thing people say about Hayes is he is a good energy guy who hustles. That is a nice way of saying he does absolutely nothing. Rafer Alston shoots the ball as well as a drunk fourth grader. Get rid of these wasted roster spots. People who can actually help this team like Mike Harris and Carl Landry, might be left out because of the space that is being taken up.

(Anyone that believes Hayes does absolutely nothing either does not watch the games, or does not know what he or she is watching. -- Jonathan)



Chris writes: I have one big concern: How much of a drop do you see the defense taking? Are we going to be in the bottom half of teams in total defense, as Adelman's Kings were? I'd like to think what the team learned under Van Gundy will stick...

(Actually, Adelman had several Kings teams that were pretty good defensive teams. I would think that with three or four above average defenders on the court most of the time, the Rockets would remain in the top 10 in field goal percentage defense. -- Jonathan)


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justin d writes: I keep reading that Adelman likes to keep a short bench, maybe working in 8-9 guys in a game. But with all of the talent on our roster, wouldn't it make sense to lengthen the bench and keep everyone fresher? I think our team, in this offense, could simply run any other team out of the building. McGrady doesn't need to log 40 minutes a game, and Yao doesn't need more than 30-35 in the regular season. It seems like it would make more sense to keep these guys fresher for the playoffs by slashing their minutes in the regular season. Now, of course, you don't want to simply concede games in the regular season, since they are important for postseason matchups. But I think limiting their minutes in the regular season could pay off huge dividends in the postseason.

While they can't do everything that McGrady does when he's on the floor, I think putting Francis and Wells at the 2 and 3 spots at the same time, with or without Yao, could make up for his offensive production.

Just a thought.

P.S. I'm getting tired of hearing this talk of getting rid of Luther Head. He's the best 3 point shooter on the team (at least that earns minutes, Novak hasn't earned that distinction yet). He creates space for McGrady and Yao (and possibly James, Francis, and Wells) to work with. Teams aren't afraid of Rafer's, Wells', Francis', or James' outside shot, but they know very well that Head and Battier are capable of hitting the three with proficiency.

(Isn't this last season's question? It is not how many players playing off the bench that reduces the starters' minutes; it is how long they they play. -- Jonathan)



mj writes: i agree with your idea of having scola to come off the bench to keep some offensive threat when yao goes out. i also think alston should start becuase with t-mac yao and shane providing most of the offense we dont need a scoring point guard with them. alston is a very unselfish player and that is why he fits well with t-mac and yao. I say bring in mike james and steve francis when alston and t-mac and yao go out to keep the scoring threat up.

(Thanks, but just to be clear, it is not my idea or even my preference. At this point, it is just something to throw out for consideration. -- Jonathan)


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scott writes: The other night Clyde told Bill if the rox stay healthy he thinks they are the best team in the NBA. Is he a homer or what? Can you update us on Calvin? Still miss him.

(Clyde likes to say what he believes viewers want to hear. Calvin does a radio show on 97.5 in Houston. -- Jonathan)





CR writes: Do you have any idea whether Adelman plans to cut down McGrady's minutes any this year? Do you expect him and Yao to both play about 35 minutes/game or so? Also interested in Battier's minutes; it doesn't seem like he'll still play 37 minutes/game like he did under JVG, b/c of the increased depth

(I would not think Battier will play as much. McGrady's might be reduced slightly, but I would not think he will slip to much less than the 35 you mentioned. -- Jonathan)




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The Dream · Oct 17, 2007

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>Rafer-McGrady-Battier-Scola-Yao</div>

would be the best lineup imo...I still think James and Francis will take shots away from Yao and Tracy...it's best if we have a lot of fire power coming off the bench..............and although I love Chuck, Scola is the best choice because I think he's might be better defensively, and he definitely brings more on the offensive end.

foo82 · Oct 17, 2007

Haha I loved this statement

"(Anyone that believes Hayes does absolutely nothing either does not watch the games, or does not know what he or she is watching. -- Jonathan)"

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[Feigen's Blog 10/16] For starters, will everything old be new again?

durvasa JBB Rockets Fan

The Dream mama there goes that man!

foo82 JBB JustBBall Member

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[Feigen's Blog 10/16] For starters, will everything old be new again?

durvasa JBB Rockets Fan

The Dream mama there goes that man!

foo82 JBB JustBBall Member

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