What's Ben Gordon's effect on the Offense?

I saw this on the APBR board and thought it was worth talking about:</p>

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>Only 45% of Ben Gordon's FGs were assisted last season. With the exception of Hinrich, who had 46% of his FGs assisted, nobody else on the team is nearly so low in this category. So who's responsible for everyone else's offense? Ben Gordon, or Kirk Hinrich? The answer's obvious. Of course, other top scorers around the league have low percentages of their FGs assisted, but Ben Gordon isn't Kobe or Lebron and Hinrich isn't that much worse of a scorer.</div>
I'm not sure the answer is obvious at all. My guess is you're looking at Kirk's passing ability and the fact that he generally runs the team and saying he generates points for the other guys.

OK, but I think that's only part of the equation. Gordon creates his own shot, and in my experience is the only guy who other teams really pay serious attention to (ok, this year they're changing how they play Deng too, but as a general historical point, Gordon has been the guy).

Point is, like any player that commands attention from defenses, I think Gordon probably "creates" for his teammates simply by being on the court. I don't know if there's a good measure for this effect (that's why I'm asking the question), and I'd be pretty interested to know what the values are if they exist.

I did something really quick and dirty just to get an idea: I looked at the 82 games top 10 five man units for the Bulls for both Kirk and Ben and tried create a weighted average of eFG% with Kirk and Ben together, and then either just Kirk or just Ben. I don't think that's anything authoritative at all, and there's probably a much better way to get at this, but it did come out in the direction I expected:</p>

</p>
<table width="512" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0" x:str="" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 384pt;">
<col width="64" span="8" style="width: 48pt;"></col>
<tbody>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td width="64" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; width: 48pt;"></td>
<td width="64" class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;">Min</td>
<td width="64" class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" x:str="'+/-">+/-</td>
<td width="64" class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;">W</td>
<td width="64" class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;">L</td>
<td width="64" class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" x:str="'+/-48min">+/-48min</td>
<td width="64" class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;">Win Pct</td>
<td width="64" class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;">eFG%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">HG</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="">1265</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="">107</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="">98</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="">81</td>
<td class="xl25" x:num="4.0600790513833989" x:fmla="=(C2/B2)*48"><span style=""> </span>4.1</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="0.54748603351955305" x:fmla="=D2/SUM(D2:E2)"><span style=""> </span>0.547</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.49730671936758891">49.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">G</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="">190</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="">49</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="">34</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="">26</td>
<td class="xl25" x:num="12.378947368421054" x:fmla="=(C3/B3)*48"><span style=""> </span>12.4</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="0.56666666666666665" x:fmla="=D3/SUM(D3:E3)"><span style=""> </span>0.567</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.50268421052631573">50.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">H</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="">472</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="">-23</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="">30</td>
<td class="xl24" x:num="">46</td>
<td class="xl25" x:num="-2.3389830508474576" x:fmla="=(C4/B4)*48"><span style=""> </span>(2.3)</td>
<td class="xl26" x:num="0.39473684210526316" x:fmla="=D4/SUM(D4:E4)"><span style=""> </span>0.395</td>
<td class="xl27" x:num="0.47291525423728814">47.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>



That is, with just Kirk on the court, the team's FG% declines, as do wins. This is an indirect way to get at things, I know, but it seems to me that Ben's presence is partly responsible for our other players' offense as well.</p>

* Obviously this is based on last year's stats. I didn't see much point yet in doing it for this year, but for whatever it's worth, here they are:</p>

</p>
<table width="512" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 384pt;" x:str="">
<col width="64" span="8" style="width: 48pt;"></col>
<tbody>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td width="64" height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; width: 48pt;"></td>
<td width="64" style="width: 48pt;" class="xl24">Min</td>
<td width="64" x:str="'+/-" style="width: 48pt;" class="xl24">+/-</td>
<td width="64" style="width: 48pt;" class="xl24">W</td>
<td width="64" style="width: 48pt;" class="xl24">L</td>
<td width="64" x:str="'+/-48min" style="width: 48pt;" class="xl24">+/-48min</td>
<td width="64" style="width: 48pt;" class="xl24">Win Pct</td>
<td width="64" style="width: 48pt;" class="xl24">eFG%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">HG</td>
<td x:num="" class="xl24">110</td>
<td x:num="" class="xl24">-49</td>
<td x:num="" class="xl24">3</td>
<td x:num="" class="xl24">14</td>
<td x:fmla="=(C2/B2)*48" x:num="-21.381818181818183" class="xl25"><span style=""> </span>(21.4)</td>
<td x:fmla="=D2/SUM(D2:E2)" x:num="0.17647058823529413" class="xl26"><span style=""> </span>0.176</td>
<td x:num="0.43536363636363629" class="xl27">43.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">G</td>
<td x:num="" class="xl24">25</td>
<td x:num="" class="xl24">5</td>
<td x:num="" class="xl24">4</td>
<td x:num="" class="xl24">2</td>
<td x:fmla="=(C3/B3)*48" x:num="9.6" class="xl25"><span style=""> </span>9.6</td>
<td x:fmla="=D3/SUM(D3:E3)" x:num="0.66666666666666663" class="xl26"><span style=""> </span>0.667</td>
<td x:num="0.50648000000000004" class="xl27">50.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">H</td>
<td x:num="" class="xl24">19</td>
<td x:num="" class="xl24">0</td>
<td x:num="" class="xl24">2</td>
<td x:num="" class="xl24">1</td>
<td x:fmla="=(C4/B4)*48" x:num="0" class="xl25"><span style=""> </span>-<span style=""> </span></td>
<td x:fmla="=D4/SUM(D4:E4)" x:num="0.66666666666666663" class="xl26"><span style=""> </span>0.667</td>
<td x:num="0.44347368421052635" class="xl27">44.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

 

Well, Ben Gordon is one of our best offensive players. He helps motivate the offense: when he is hot. He can be inconsistent, but when he plays, he plays.</p>

 

I don't deny that Gordon spaces the floor, but it's usually with a shorter player on him so I'm not sure how much that helps.</p>

I suspect the results are somewhat skewed by playing time and lack of information. Even if Hinrich is shooting poorly, he usually stays on the court to run the team or defend 2s. Gordon's leash is much shorter - if he isn't shooting well he gets yanked. So, he doesn't get a chance to further ruin his FG% like Hinrich does in his increased minutes. 190 vs 472.</p>

I'd have to see turnover data as well. It's very likely that Gordon has a higher TO % when he's on the court without Hinrich. That may also explain part of the difference.</p>

</p>