In this topic, I'm going to use theforum's good table code to help me keep track ofhow the Nuggets stack up against the top teams of the West. If I were to just post offensive comparisons, the Nuggets would lookalmost unbeatable. So I will be posting just as many defensive stats as offensive ones.For the defensive stats, I will becreating a stat or two of my own, because thereare alot fewer defensive stats than offensive stats available. </p> Here is a good offensive statistic kept by ESPN, the points per shot stat. This is exactly what the name says it is, points per field goal attempted: PTS/FGA. This is a great offensive efficiency stat.The more points you get per shot, the more easily you can win even if the other team gets more shots due to turnovers or offensive rebounding.</p> Another way to look at this is that this stat shows the combined results of a team's shot selection, it's skills at making shots in general, and it's skills in making 3-point shots in particular.</p> Even tiny differences in the numbers are significant, because of the large numbers of points and shots. For example, a difference of .06, which is the difference between the Nuggets and the Spurs right now, would translate into a difference of 80 *.06= 4.8 points in a game where each team took 80 shots. So the Nuggets would be ahead by 5 and the Spurs would then have to make up for that by getting more shots than the Nuggets, and/or by defending shots without fouling better than the Nuggets.</p> POINTS PER SHOT (OFFENSIVE STAT) AS OF NOVEMBER 19</p> <table cellspacing="1" cellpadding="1" width="300" border="1"> <tbody> <tr> <td>#</td> <td> TEAM</p> </p> </td> <td> POINTS</p> PER SHOT</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td>1</td> <td>Mavericks</td> <td>1.33</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2</td> <td>Nuggets</td> <td>1.31</td> </tr> <tr> <td>3</td> <td>Jazz</td> <td>1.29</td> </tr> <tr> <td>4</td> <td>Lakers</td> <td>1.28</td> </tr> <tr> <td>5</td> <td>Suns</td> <td>1.27</td> </tr> <tr> <td>6</td> <td>Spurs</td> <td>1.25</td> </tr> <tr> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> </tr> <tr> <td>7</td> <td>Hornets</td> <td>1.22</td> </tr> <tr> <td></td> <td></td> <td></td> </tr> <tr> <td>8</td> <td>Rockets</td> <td>1.14</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </p> <u>Conclusions</u></p> 1. The Nugget's and Maverick's offenses have been very efficient so far,even better than the Suns.</p> 2. The Lakers and Jazz are off to good starts offensively.</p> 3. The Hornets and the Rockets right now are not efficient enough to be able to win a 7-game series against the Mavericks or the Nuggets, unless they could play an outstanding lock-down defense.</p> 4. The Spurs are still relying on outstanding defense more than the other top teams; their offensive efficiency is not that good so far.</p> 5. Coach Karl should stay calm if a player takes a bad shot or two, because this stat shows that the Nuggets are choosing their shots well overall.</p>
The flip of the above stat, which is the Points Per Shot Againstdefensive stat, is available, so it's the first defensive stat to go here. This measures how many points are scored against a team per shot taken. This is going to be one of the best defensive statistics.</p> POINTS PER SHOT (DEFENSIVE STAT) AS OF NOVEMBER 19</p> <table cellspacing="1" cellpadding="1" width="350" border="1"> <tbody> <tr> <td>#</td> <td>TEAM</td> <td> POINTS</p> AGAINST</p> PER SHOT</p> (DEFENSE)</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td>1</td> <td>Hornets</td> <td>1.11</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2</td> <td>Suns</td> <td>1.11</td> </tr> <tr> <td>3</td> <td>Lakers</td> <td>1.14</td> </tr> <tr> <td>4</td> <td>Spurs</td> <td>1.15</td> </tr> <tr> <td>5</td> <td>Nuggets</td> <td>1.15</td> </tr> <tr> <td>6</td> <td>Mavericks</td> <td>1.20</td> </tr> <tr> <td>7</td> <td>Rockets</td> <td>1.25</td> </tr> <tr> <td>8</td> <td>Jazz</td> <td>1.28</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </p> <u>Conclusions</u></p> 1. What is most amazing is that the Nuggets are playing near the top of the heap in the West on defense so far this year. The schedule has been fairly easy, but this is still great news. The Nuggets are actually tied with the Spurs right now in this very important defensive stat.So the training camp emphasis on defense has worked out. The Denver coaches and players have done an amazing job defensively so far.</p> 2. The Hornet's success so far is due more to defense than offense.</p> 3. The Suns are playing great defense so far, contrary to their reputation.</p> 4. The Lakers are playing well both offensively and defensively so far.</p> 5. The Jazz are in trouble defensively. (That's going to get people happy in Denver.)</p> 6. The Rockets have not lived up to their reputation as an outstanding defensive team yet.</p> </p>
Now I can combine the two stats together to produce a total result for offense and defense. This is going to be a very important stat to keep track of.</p> POINTS PER SHOT OFFENSE AND DEFENSE COMBINED, NOVEMBER 19</p> <table cellspacing="1" cellpadding="1" width="350" border="1"> <tbody> <tr> <td>#</td> <td>TEAM</td> <td> POINTS PER SHOT</p> OFFENSE & DEFENSE</p> COMBINED RESULT</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td>1</td> <td>Suns</td> <td>+.16</td> </tr> <tr> <td>2</td> <td>Nuggets</td> <td>+.16</td> </tr> <tr> <td>3</td> <td>Lakers</td> <td>+.14</td> </tr> <tr> <td>4</td> <td>Mavericks</td> <td>+.13</td> </tr> <tr> <td>5</td> <td>Hornets</td> <td>+.11</td> </tr> <tr> <td>6</td> <td>Spurs</td> <td>+.10</td> </tr> <tr> <td>7</td> <td>Jazz</td> <td>+.01</td> </tr> <tr> <td>8</td> <td>Rockets</td> <td>-.11</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </p> <u>Conclusions</u></p> 1. If you look at points per shot, a very important basic indicator, for offense and defense, you find that the Nuggets, amazingly, have arrived at the top of the heap of the West. Even when you factor in defense, the Nuggets are still substantially ahead of the Spurs right now. The one problem though is that this is early in the season, and the Spurs have played the 5th hardest schedule and the Nuggets have played the 4th easiest schedule so far. So you can bet the Spurs will be making a move up and the Nuggets making a move down as the season goes along. It will be very interesting to monitor this as the season goes along.</p> 2. The Lakers have played a strong schedule so they are for real so far, and better than the Nuggets if you adjust for schedule. Phil Jackson is atwork again.</p> 3.The Jazz have played an easy schedule, so you would predict from this that the Nuggets are very likely to win the division.</p> 4. TheRockets have played a very strong schedule, so it's too early to write them off, but they are in more trouble than people think.</p> 5. The Suns and the Mavericks have played schedules almost as easy as the Nuggets so far, so it can be said that, so far, the Nuggets are as good as the Suns, and very slightly better than the Mavericks.</p> 6. The Hornets have played an average schedule so far, so I would estimate that the Nuggets and the Hornets are about equal so far.</p> 7. As the season goes on, the strength of schedule differences will get smaller and smaller. I'd say that by the all-star break at the latest, the schedule differences will be too small to matter anymore, and this stat will be a key indicator of which teams are really the best in the West.</p> </p>
