Great Read! Chris Paul for MVP

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'></p>

Try making a list of the game's great little guys, and you'll end up with a pretty short list. Even the great "little players" haven't been all that little -- Jerry West, Michael Jordan, Oscar Robertson and Dwyane Wade all stand at least 6-4, making them taller than the vast majority of the general population.</p>

</p>
<div style="padding: 0pt 15px 5px;" class="sp-inlinePhoto">
<div class="photoEnlarge">[+] Enlarge</div>

<div style="width: 200px;">
<p class="photoCredit">Chris Graythen/Getty Images</p>
<p class="photoDesc">Chris Paul isn't getting much MVP buzz despite his impressive start.</p>
</div>
</div>

The list of recent stars below that height is smaller still. Isiah Thomas. John Stockton. Allen Iverson. Steve Nash.</p>

And now, Chris Paul.</p>

Say what? Oh yes. The New Orleans guard is putting together a season that, provided he keeps it up, will put him in the pantheon of the league's greatest little guys. This is getting shockingly little attention because Paul hasn't been on national TV and plays before crowds that would have trouble filling a U-Haul, but his production this season has been nothing short of spectacular.</p>

<offer></offer></p>

How spectacular? I submit that Paul is the MVP of the non-LeBron portion of the league thus far. He ranks third in the entire NBA in player efficiency rating at 26.64. And he has the Hornets at a surprising 15-10 despite his teammates' aversion to making shots -- Paul and center Tyson Chandler are the only regulars shooting better than 43.8 percent.</p>

This may come as a shock to the multitudes who haven't seen the Hornets much. But if you consider it a sacrilege for Paul to outrank Nash or Chauncey Billups, get a tape of Saturday's Hornets-Suns game and it might be easier to swallow. Paul got the better of Nash in that pairing. And for the season, he's averaging 21.0 points and 9.6 assists -- leaving the hallowed 20-10 mark well within his sights. Moreover, despite being his team's unquestioned go-to guy, he has an unusually low turnover ratio (just 9.7 percent of his possessions).</p>

</p>
<table width="300" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="5" border="0" align="right" id="inlinetable">
<tbody>
<tr class="stathead">
<td>POINTS OF DEBATE: CP3 VS. D-WILL</td>
</tr>
<tr valign="top" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">
<td>


What about Deron Williams?</p>


Because they were drafted fourth and third, respectively, in the 2005 draft, the careers of Paul and Williams are inextricably linked -- so much so that people constantly compare the two.</p>


Our own Marc Stein interviewed some scouts about this for the Weekend Dime, and the response was similar to many I've heard -- that a lot of scouts would take Williams over Paul because he's bigger.</p>


Look, don't get me wrong: I like Williams. He's an All-Star caliber player and if the Jazz can snap out of their recent slump he fully deserves to join Paul in New Orleans (for the All-Star Game). That said, the oft-echoed opinion that Williams is equal or superior to Paul is totally indefensible.</p>


It's not like Williams is better at some things and Paul is better at others ... it's more like Paul is better at everything. He's averaging more points, more rebounds and more assists in nearly identical minutes. Despite making more plays he averages nearly a turnover fewer per game. Paul leads the league in steals and is a visibly superior defender. Paul's team is 15-10 with Paul as the best player; Williams' is 14-12 with him as the second-best player.</p>


This isn't a new phenomenon either: Paul had a better player efficiency rating in 2005-06, 2006-07 and now in 2007-08; it wasn't a particularly close race in any of those seasons. Going deeper, Paul fouls less, has a far better net plus-minus, and has a lower opponent PER. And despite Williams' rep as the superior shooter, Paul is also far better from the line (91.6 percent to 79.1 percent this season; 84.4 percent to 75.9 percent career), so he's the one you'd want with the ball at the end of games.</p>


Basically, the only items in Williams' favor are that he has a slightly better true shooting percentage (58.6 to 57.2) ... and, um, he's bigger.</p>


Like I said, I like Williams as a player and don't mean this as a rip on him. But because of the vast disparity in media coverage between the two over the past year, especially during Utah's playoff run last spring, I don't think people quite understand just how good Paul has been, or how wide the chasm is that separates these two.</p>


</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


Even on the off nights -- like Monday night's forgettable performance in a loss to Portland (5-for-15, 11 points, eight assists, four turnovers), there was plenty to remark on. For starters, the guy has to be the best dribbler in the league, with the ball seemingly attached to his hand while he zips around the court like he's on a motorized scooter. To combat that skill, the Blazers played a zone defense designed specifically to contain Paul and dared the other Hornets to beat them from the perimeter. Paul spent the whole game setting up open 3-pointers, only to watch his teammates shoot 3-for-21 from deep. (Come back soon, Peja. Please.)</p>

And then there's the havoc Paul causes at the other end with his ball-hawking D. He leads the league in steals at 2.7 per game -- in fact he's way out in front. His insanely fast hands and equally speedy feet are even more noticeable on loose balls, on which he materializes out of thin air and either cleanly recovers the ball or gets a hand in to jostle it from an opponent. With Paul as one of the linchpins, New Orleans ranks fifth in the NBA in defensive efficiency.</p>

The Paul highlight film for the season includes 12 double-doubles in 25 outings, 20 points in eight of his last 10 games, and perhaps most amazingly, a recently broken string of 21 straight games with at least two steals (including the final two games of last season). He had a 21-assist outing in L.A., and a 43-point effort against Memphis that included the game-winner. His PER doesn't lie, in other words -- he's been awesome.</p>

But you may not realize how amazing he's been until you try to come up with other little players who have put up a PER that can match Paul's 26.64</p>

&hellip; and realize there aren't any.</p>

Of the players 6-3 or shorter who have been in the league since the NBA began tracking individual turnovers in 1977-78, none has posted a PER that tops Paul's so far this season. Only one had cleared 26 (Allen Iverson two years ago), and only three had cleared 24 (see chart).</p>

Part of this is because the game has become more guard-oriented recently, as you can ascertain by quickly scanning the dates on the chart (In fact, Billups' performance this season would place him fourth on the same list). But obviously, part of this is because Paul has been so unbelievably good.</p>

</p>
<div style="width: 300px;" class="io">
<div class="clearfix">
<h4 class="io-title stathead">Top PER seasons by players 6-3 or shorter since 1977-78</h4>
</div>

<table cellspacing="0" class="left">
<caption></caption>
<tbody>
<tr class="io-columnHeaders">
<td>Player</td>
<td>Year</td>
<td>PER</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Chris Paul</td>
<td>2007-08</td>
<td>26.67</td>
</tr>
<tr class="io-evenRow">
<td>Allen Iverson</td>
<td>2005-06</td>
<td>26.02</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Terrell Brandon</td>
<td>1995-96</td>
<td>25.45</td>
</tr>
<tr class="io-evenRow">
<td>Gilbert Arenas</td>
<td>2006-07</td>
<td>24.07</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>John Stockton</td>
<td>1989-90</td>
<td>23.96</td>
</tr>
<tr class="io-evenRow">
<td>Kevin Johnson</td>
<td>1990-91</td>
<td>23.94</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Allen Iverson</td>
<td>2000-01</td>
<td>23.91</td>
</tr>
<tr class="io-evenRow">
<td>Steve Nash</td>
<td>2006-07</td>
<td>23.87</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Gilbert Arenas</td>
<td>2005-06</td>
<td>23.87</td>
</tr>
<tr class="io-evenRow">
<td>John Stockton</td>
<td>1990-91</td>
<td>23.53</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>


</p>

</p>

This may not be immediately clear from the numbers, since Paul doesn't have a single gaudy stat besides steals. He's third in assists, for instance, rather than first, and although his 21-point average is nice, he won't be making a bid for the scoring title.</p>

Compare him to the league's other point guards, though, and it becomes clearer how well he's played. Paul has created far more shots than Nash or Billups -- more even than Iverson in fact -- and has turned the ball over substantially less than Nash. Tony Parker and T.J. Ford have created slightly more shots but are inferior passers and have a lower true shooting percentage. Jason Kidd, whom many lump into point guard discussions out of habit, creates far fewer shots, converts a much lower rate of them, and his turnover rate is more than 50 percent higher. And of this gang Paul is almost certainly the most effective defender (though some would pull the lever for Billups or, again out of habit, Kidd).</p>

Perhaps of more interest is the historical comparison. Does Paul's season to date really match the best years of Stockton, Nash, KJ, Kidd and Isiah? Says here it does. If you take everyone's stats from their best seasons and adjust them to the 2007-08 pace and league average TS%, and give everybody 40 minutes on the floor, what you end up with is a comparison in which you almost can't help but give Paul the nod.</p>

</p>

</p>
<table width="100%" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="3" border="0" class="tablehead widetable">
<tbody>
<tr class="stathead">
<td colspan="8">Chris Paul vs. other top small guards -- Era-adjusted 40-minute stats</td>
</tr>
<tr valign="top" class="colhead">
<td>Player</td>
<td>Year</td>
<td>Pts.</td>
<td>Ast.</td>
<td>Reb.</td>
<td>TO</td>
<td>TS%</td>
<td>PER</td>
</tr>
<tr valign="top" class="oddrow">
<td>Chris Paul</td>
<td>2007-08</td>
<td>22.3</td>
<td>10.2</td>
<td>4.1</td>
<td>3.2</td>
<td>57.2</td>
<td>26.67</td>
</tr>
<tr valign="top" class="evenrow">
<td>Allen Iverson</td>
<td>2005-06</td>
<td>29.9</td>
<td>6.7</td>
<td>2.9</td>
<td>3.1</td>
<td>54.3</td>
<td>26.02</td>
</tr>
<tr valign="top" class="oddrow">
<td>John Stockton</td>
<td>1989-90</td>
<td>17.4</td>
<td>14.6</td>
<td>2.6</td>
<td>3.5</td>
<td>60.5</td>
<td>23.96</td>
</tr>
<tr valign="top" class="evenrow">
<td>Kevin Johnson</td>
<td>1990-91</td>
<td>22.1</td>
<td>10.1</td>
<td>3.5</td>
<td>3.5</td>
<td>60.5</td>
<td>23.94</td>
</tr>
<tr valign="top" class="oddrow">
<td>Steve Nash</td>
<td>2006-07</td>
<td>20.0</td>
<td>12.5</td>
<td>3.8</td>
<td>4.1</td>
<td>64.6</td>
<td>23.87</td>
</tr>
<tr valign="top" class="evenrow">
<td>Isiah Thomas</td>
<td>1984-85</td>
<td>19.1</td>
<td>12.4</td>
<td>4.0</td>
<td>3.3</td>
<td>52.1</td>
<td>22.20</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


The key here is that Paul's Hornets play what is easily the slowest pace of any of the guards on this list, at just 92.9 possessions per game. Everyone else was over 95; Isiah and KJ were well over 100. Let some of the air out of those 20-10 seasons from the '80s and it becomes clear how impressive it is that Paul is approaching those numbers this season.</p>

Across the board, Paul stacks up well in this group. Only Iverson scores more, while Paul beats them all on the glass. He's in the middle of the pack in TS% and assists, but combined with the points, he creates as many shots as anyone on this list save Iverson. And check out those turnovers -- as always, we tend to underrate low-mistake players, and for one to be creating as many shots as Paul with so few miscues is a feat.</p>

If you're trying to put words in my mouth by accusing me of saying Paul is better than Stockton or Isiah, don't. I'm not going there -- not yet anyway. As I pointed out above, it's much easier for a small guard to dominate in today's game than it was two decades ago.</p>

More importantly, dominating over 25 games is very different from dominating 82 -- I'm sure you could find a 25-game stretch of any of these players' careers in which they were just as good or better than Paul has been.</p>

Instead, the big takeaway should be this: Paul is on pace to have, arguably, the best season ever by a player 6-3 or smaller, and because of his small market and relatively unamazing per-game stats, absolutely nobody is even talking about it.</p>

So it's time for me to ring the bell. He plays before a minuscule fan base, gets zero national TV exposure and might not even make the playoffs, which is keeping his performance under the radar. But Chris Paul is having a historic season thus far. It's about time somebody noticed.</p>

</p>

</p>

</div></p>