http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=24241 ENPR: Iowa Caucus Predictions: Romney, Obama Win; Clinton Thirdby Robert Novak and Timothy P. Carney Posted: 01/02/2008 <u>Iowa Caucuses</u> Iowa voters tomorrow night will go to their local precinct caucuses to cast their lot with a presidential candidate. The winner is hardly guaranteed his party's nomination -- in fact, it's possible that neither Iowa winner will come out as the favorite for the nomination -- but the caucuses will certainly be the end of the road for some candidates. Here are our analyses of the races as they stand now and the most likely outcomes: <u>Republicans</u>: This is a two-way contest between former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. The battle for third place is among former Sen. Fred Thompson (Tenn.), Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), and Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.). Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is not even spending this week in Iowa. Instead, he is campaigning in New Hampshire. Ever since finishing second in the Iowa straw poll last August, Huckabee steadily climbed here in Iowa, aided by his evangelical pedigree, his sincerity and the fresh-face factor, and less critical press coverage than any other candidate. Polls of likely Republican caucus-goers consistently showed Huckabee ahead throughout December, but more recent surveys are a mixed bag, showing slippage by Huckabee. Polling the caucuses is notoriously difficult, because caucusing, unlike voting in a primary, can take all night. Turnout is a bigger commitment, and it's harder to predict. While pollsters try to correct for this, the room for error is huge. Romney is close or leading in the post-Christmas polls. This is probably good enough for him. He has a much bigger team in Iowa and much more money to spend than do Huckabee and the other Republican candidates. Romney's campaign should be better than Huckabee's at getting its supporters to their caucuses. Huckabee, however, has two potential caucus-night advantages. First, he enjoys more enthusiastic support than does Romney, who, for many Iowa Republicans, is just the most electable or the most acceptable of the top-tier candidates. Huckabee, by contrast, has a strong core of dedicated voters who share his religious views. Huckabee has recently come under a steady barrage of criticism by economic conservatives and a constant drubbing by Romney's well-financed campaign. Two weeks ago, we wrote that Thompson was the "X-Factor." Most Iowa Republicans hadn't given him much thought as of mid-December, but he has spent the last two-and-a-half weeks in the Hawkeye State. Post-Christmas polls do not show a big spike, but he does seem to poll even with McCain for third place. A decent third-place finish for either of these men would be a boost going into New Hampshire. Ron Paul could make a splash, as well. He's in fifth place in most polls, but his supporters are unmatched in enthusiasm and dedication. A third-place finish for Paul is not out of the question. The most likely outcome appears to be:<ul>1st Place: Mitt Romney 2nd Place: Mike Huckabee 3rd Place: Fred Thompson 4th Place: John McCain [/list]<u>Democrats</u>: This is a three-way contest among Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.), Sen. Hillary Clinton (N.Y.), and former Sen. John Edwards (N.C.). It's possible that there are only three survivors out of Iowa for the Democrats and that the second-tier candidates will be gone by New Hampshire. The similarities between Obama 2008 and Howard Dean in 2004 are real and could show themselves Thursday night. Obama is the new, fresh face in the race with youthful, enthusiastic, and idealistic supporters. For Dean, that same formula translated into caucus-day bust. Will the same happen to Obama? Obama leads in most polls, and significantly in some. His negatives are much lower than Clinton's, and his positives are higher than Edwards'. He has as much money as Clinton and the edge in enthusiasm. However, his campaign team in Iowa is the least experienced of the top three. He could flame out like Dean, but all considered, he has to be viewed as the favorite. Hillary's organization may be the strongest, but her negatives are the highest. Her hardball tactics against Obama will hurt her. For the Democrats, who have a viability threshold of at least 15% in each precinct, second choice matters, and that is where Hillary's negatives will hurt her. She doesn't appear to be the second choice for very many voters at all. Edwards has run in Iowa before and done well. His second-place finish in 2004, however, was in a weaker Democratic field. His negatives are low, however, and many polls have shown him as the most popular second choice among supporters of the second-tier candidates. In polls, he is right on Hillary's heels, and it is likely he will pass her in the caucuses. The second-tier candidates -- Sen. Joe Biden (Del.), Sen. Chris Dodd (Conn.), and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson -- will struggle to reach the 15% viability threshold in many districts, with the top three garnering 85% among them in most areas. Of the three second-tier Democrats, Richardson has the best chance of even registering in the final results. The Democratic field looks to shake out this way:<ul>1st Place: Barack Obama 2nd Place: John Edwards 3rd Place: Hillary Clinton 4th Place: Bill Richardson [/list]
Meanwhile, my guy is poised to surprise everyone: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home Paul Rivals Clinton, Raising Almost $20 Million for Campaign By Kristin Jensen Jan. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Presidential candidate Ron Paul raised almost $20 million for his campaign in the last three months, potentially outpacing every one of his Republican rivals and putting his fundraising in league with Hillary Clinton's. Paul, a U.S. representative from Texas, raised at least $19.5 million, according to a statement posted on his Web site. His campaign said today that he originally aimed to raise $12 million in the fourth quarter of 2007. The take puts Paul on par with the top fundraisers in the Democratic Party, who outpaced Republicans last year. The campaign of New York Senator Clinton yesterday said she raised more than $100 million for the year, meaning she brought in at least $20 million in the fourth quarter. Paul has drawn supporters with his libertarian message and his opposition to the war in Iraq, spurring a burst of donations on the Internet, the source of about 80 percent of the contributions last quarter, according to Paul spokesman Jesse Benton. In the three months through September, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani brought in the most contributions among Republicans, for a total of $11.5 million. Presidential campaigns don't have to report fundraising figures until the end of January, though many give hints about their totals earlier than that. Arizona Senator John McCain, who's seeking the Republican presidential nomination, yesterday told reporters in New Hampshire that December was his best fundraising month since July. He gave no further details. To contact the reporter on this story: Kristin Jensen in Iowa at kjensen@bloomberg.net
If Hillary gets stomped, party at my house. I'm going to be following Romney/Huckabee very carefully.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (AEM @ Jan 2 2008, 05:39 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>If Hillary gets stomped, party at my house. I'm going to be following Romney/Huckabee very carefully.</div> The sad part is, her campaign is so well organized and financed that she can afford a third place finish in Iowa. Romney and Huckabee will be interesting. The latest projections are showing Romney winning. Huckabee is a one-state wonder. He isn't going to do anything outside of Iowa.
I don't understand the logic that Ron Paul has no chance to do damage in Iowa or New Hampshire. What the fuck do these people think he's been raising all that money for?
The money that Paul's raised means he can finish 4th in a bunch of primaries and go the distance that way.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Real @ Jan 2 2008, 08:26 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>I don't understand the logic that Ron Paul has no chance to do damage in Iowa or New Hampshire. What the fuck do these people think he's been raising all that money for?</div> Because he can't. He has no chance of doing anything big in Iowa or NH - sort of like Guliani in that he has no chance of doing anything good in the two states. His money is going to serve him on a national level and not just for those two states. This is going to be one election where the General Election candidates won't be chosen till around the Convention.
Intellectually I don't think Huckabee stands much of a chance anywhere else, but I still don't like him winning anything. Glad to see Bill and Hillary finish 3rd on the Dem side though. That's something.
Interesting how Novak nailed the Democrat race and blew it on the Republican race. Meanwhile, this is heartbreaking... NOT! http://www.time-blog.com/swampland/2008/01...democratic.html January 4, 2008 9:18 Hillary Booed at NH Democratic Party Dinner Posted by Jay Newton-Small | Comments (12) | Permalink | Trackbacks (0) | Email This If the New Hampshire Democratic Party’s 100 Club dinner is any bell weather – Barack Obama will handily win here. When Obama, the dinner’s last speaker, took the stage the crowd surged forward chanting “O-bam-a” and “Fired Up, Ready to Go!” So many people pressed toward the stage that an announcer asked people to “please take their seats for safety concerns.” By comparison Hillary was twice booed. The first time was when she said she has always and will continue to work for "change for you. The audience, particularly from Obama supporters (they were waving Obama signs) let out a noise that sounded like a thousand people collectively groaning. The second time came a few minutes later when Clinton said: "The there are two big questions for voters in New Hampshire. One is: who will be ready to lead from day one? The second," and here Clinton was forced to pause as boos from the crowd mixed with cheers from her own supporters. "Is who can we nominate who will go the distance against the Republicans?” The dinner held in the Hampshire Dome in Milford is the largest political dinner in New Hampshire history, Republican or Democrat. More than 3,000 people attended.
Honestly, I think that Novak's biases affect him much more within the Republican party than when he analyzes the Democrats.
