http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=24330 <span style="font-size:18pt;line-height:100%">New Hampshire Predictions: Obama Blowout; Romney Rallying </span> by Robert Novak and Timothy P. Carney (more by this author) Posted 01/07/2008 ET Updated 01/07/2008 ET New Hampshire Predictions: Obama Blowout; Romney Rallying McCain had seemed a clear winner over Romney in New Hampshire with two days left before the Republican voting, but Romney is coming back fast. Obama looks like a winner over Clinton in Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, which will be damaging but not fatal to her Democratic presidential candidacy. Here is our New Hampshire outlook based on a personal reporting trip by Robert Novak: <u>Republican</u> Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) had pulled even with front-running former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney prior to the Iowa caucuses and pulled ahead based on Romney's disappointing second-place finish in Iowa. After Saturday night's ABC debate, Romney, from neighboring Massachusetts, seemed to be in freefall. The other candidates personally dislike him, and they ganged up on him. The only problem for McCain appeared to be that he overplayed his hand in going after Romney with too much vehemence and personal animosity. But Romney made a remarkable comeback in Sunday night's Fox News debate, dominating his opponents. He capitalized on McCain's weaknesses on tax and immigration policy. We attended a focus group of mainly undecided Republican voters arranged for Fox by pollster Frank Luntz. They entered the room before the debate widely divided and left it after the debate heavily for Romney -- because of the immigration issue. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee never was expected to repeat his Iowa win in the less fertile soil of New Hampshire, but his performance in the Fox debate was truly dreadful. The Luntz focus group hated Huckabee's refusal to answer questions about his record. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani was not long ago battling Romney for the New Hampshire lead, but he abandoned the state a few weeks back as part of his "big-state" strategy and over the past weekend did little there except participate in the debates. Like McCain, he suffers because of the immigration issue. If McCain does win in New Hampshire, he will be the new national frontrunner. Romney may be finished, with Giuliani given the best chance of overcoming McCain. Our shaky New Hampshire projection on election eve: <blockquote> 1st Place: McCain, but vulnerable. 2nd Place: Romney, but rallying. 3rd Place: Huckabee. 4th Place: Giuliani. 5th Place: Former Sen. Fred Thompson (Tenn.). </blockquote> <u>Democratic</u> The third-place finish in Iowa by Sen. Hillary Clinton (N.Y.) had a negative impact in New Hampshire, where she had been slipping against Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) even before her loss in Iowa. It is beginning to look like a double-digit loss for Clinton. She was supposed to come out swinging against Obama in New Hampshire, but her boring, pedantic campaign style had not really changed from Iowa. At one rally where we were present, Clinton never mentioned Obama by name and criticized him only once (on healthcare) as "one of my opponents." Former President Bill Clinton, campaigning separately, is sprightlier but no more effective. In contrast, "Obamamania" reigns supreme -- generating enthusiasm not seen since the 1968 campaign of Robert F. Kennedy. He attracts new voters and generates support across ideological and party lines. In truth, he worries Republicans sick, but for now, he threatens the long, slowly built Clinton campaign. Former Sen. John Edwards (N.C.), who dwells on finishing ahead of Clinton in Iowa, looks like the odd man out in New Hampshire, with very little interest in him. Clinton will not drop out after New Hampshire, as has been reported, and she can still stop Obama in the big states. But it will not be easy or automatic. Our election eve projection for New Hampshire: <blockquote> 1st Place: Obama, going away. 2nd Place: Clinton. 3rd Place: Edwards. 4th Place: New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson. </blockquote>
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/...1701153,00.html Monday, Jan. 07, 2008 Clinton Faces a Cash Crunch By Karen Tumulty/Manchester Along with a change of her political fortunes as the result of her devastating loss in Iowa and dropping poll numbers in New Hampshire, Hillary Clinton's once-flush presidential campaign now faces a problem that few would have expected at this point: a sudden urgency to raise a lot of money fast. With momentum against her and a battle plan that appears to be staking everything on the big and expensive states like New York and California that hold their primaries on February 5, Clinton's campaign is putting new pressure on its fundraisers to come up with the cash she will need to carry her through. "Clearly, by every measure, I hear they are in a real financial crunch," says one prominent fundraiser. "Here's the dilemma: You have a situation where there clearly is a full court press to raise more money, but considering the state of decline of the campaign, there's a real question of whether people are going to want to give. It's more than just raising money; you've got to give people a sense of potential." One reason for the new drive to raise cash quickly is the fact that Clinton spent lavishly on what turned out to be a debacle in Iowa. Numbers circulating among fundraisers — but not confirmed by the campaign — suggest that the campaign may have as little as $15 million to $25 million left on hand. While that is enormous by historic standards, it is less than half the nearly $50.5 million she had at the end of September (when she enjoyed a significant advantage over Barack Obama's $36 million on hand). What's more, campaign officials believe that Obama's Iowa victory has almost certainly been accompanied by a financial windfall for his campaign, particularly over the Internet, where he has had a far stronger operation than Clinton has. The Obama campaign declined to provide any figures, with spokesman Bill Burton saying only: "There's a lot of energy and enthusiasm, and it's continuing to increase." Clinton fundraisers say there is also a new emphasis in the appeals they are getting from the campaign. Where they previously focused on bringing in $4,600 donations — pressing donors to "max out" by giving the legal limit of $2,300 for the primary election and $2,300 for the general — they are now being asked to drum up $2,300 contributions. "They started out running a general election campaign," says one. "Now there's a real fixation on the primary." The day after the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses, the campaign staged a "callathon" to encourage smaller contributions. Clinton campaign spokesman Howard Wolfson notes that fundraising has always been a high priority for her operation, which he says continues on sound financial footing. "We have considerable resources," he says, adding that the campaign is flush enough to be buying large amounts of air time for television ads in New Hampshire, as well as in South Carolina and Nevada, where the next two contests will be held.
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080107/D8U1AI080.html Emotions Run High on Eve of NH Primary Jan 7, 5:32 PM (ET) By DAVID ESPO and PHILIP ELLIOTT MANCHESTER, N.H. (AP) - Her voice quavering, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton struggled Monday to avoid a highly damaging second straight defeat in the Democratic presidential race. Republicans John McCain and Mitt Romney scrapped for success on the eve of a New Hampshire primary that neither could afford to lose. "You're the wave, and I'm riding it," Sen. Barack Obama, the new Democratic front-runner, told several hundred voters who cheered him in 40-degree weather after being turned away from an indoor rally filled to capacity. Obama has been drawing large, boisterous crowds since he won the Iowa caucuses last week, and a spate of pre-primary polls showed him powering to a lead in New Hampshire, as well. Clinton runs second in the surveys, with former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina third, and the first lady and her aides seemed to be bracing for another setback. At one stop, she appeared to struggle with her emotions when asked how she copes with the grind of the campaign - but her words still had bite. "Some of us are ready and some of us are not," she said in remarks aimed at Obama, less than four years removed from the Illinois Legislature. Opinion polls made the Republican race a close one between McCain, the Arizona senator seeking to rebound from last summer's near collapse of his campaign, and Romney, the former governor from next-door Massachusetts. After sparring over taxes and immigration in weekend debates with McCain and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Romney cast himself as the Republican best able to hold the White House. "I think Barack Obama would be able to do to John McCain exactly what he was able to do to the other senators who were running on the other side," he said as he sped his way through a half-dozen events on a final full day of campaigning. Mindful of the polls, though, he declined to predict victory in a state where he had led in surveys for months. McCain wasn't nearly as reluctant. "We're not gonna lose here," he predicted as he set out on a packed day of campaigning through seven cities. In a snow-draped setting in Keene, he accused Romney of negative campaigning and said voters would reject it. "I don't care how many attack ads you buy on television," he said. Romney has run several TV commercials against McCain in New Hampshire, arguing that the senator's immigration plan would offer amnesty for illegal immigrants and painting him as a disloyal Republican for twice opposing President Bush's tax cuts. McCain responded with an ad that includes a quote from The Concord Monitor that suggested Romney was a phony. Obama won his Iowa victory on a promise of bringing change to Washington, trumping Clinton's stress on experience. She has struggled to find her footing in the days since, at the same time insisting she is in the race to stay. Her husband, the former president, pointed out the obvious Sunday night in remarks before a college audience. "We can't be a new story," he said, speaking in something of a jocular tone. "I can't make her younger, taller, male." Still, Sen. Clinton's aides have urged her to show more passion and emotion - including laughter - to give voters a sense of her warmer side. By coincidence or not, she did so as she set out on a final day in New Hampshire. "You know, I had so many opportunities from this country. I just don't want to see us fall backwards," she said at a morning campaign stop, her tone changing and voice quavering. "You know, this is very personal for me. It's not just political. It's not just public. I see what's happening. And we have to reverse it." Edwards criticized Clinton as ill-suited to bring about change. "The candidate - Democrat or Republican - who's taken the most money from drug companies is not a Republican. It's a Democrat and she in this race tomorrow morning," he said. The ubiquitous polls suggested that independents would play a large role in determining the outcome of the Republican race. Men like Darren Garnick of Amherst, a registered independent, called himself politically "schizophrenic" as he crowded in to hear Huckabee speak. "I want someone to fix health care, and I want someone who will stand up to Iran." Political independents accounted for 41 percent of the vote in the 2000 Republican primary in the state. McCain carried that group, 61-19, over George W. Bush, and won the primary even though Bush won the GOP nomination. Now, eight years later, McCain hopes to attract enough independent voters once more to defeat Romney. But Obama's rise presents a challenge McCain didn't face in 2000. The Illinois senator showed strong appeal among independents in Iowa, and pre-primary polling in New Hampshire indicates he is poised to gain substantial backing there, as well. That left McCain contesting Obama for independents and Romney for Republicans as he worked to climb back into the race after his campaign nearly imploded last summer. At the time, he was struggling to defend the Iraq War, unpopular with independents and linked to an immigration position that drove away conservatives. In the months since, he has worked to take the edge off the immigration issue, and the war has receded as a campaign concern as U.S. casualties have declined. Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor, flipped pancakes Monday in a state known for its maple syrup, and struck a tone that was both populist and conservative. "There's a great need in this country to elect someone who reminds them of the guy they work with, not the guy who laid them off," he said in a pitch aimed at independent voters. Speaking to conservatives, he added, "I have also heard folks say people in New Hampshire don't care about issues like family and the sanctity of life. I'd beg to differ." He finished first in the Iowa caucuses last week on the strength of support from evangelical conservatives, but Tuesday's primary appears to offer far less prospect of success. With the two parties still picking their candidates for the fall, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg took part in a meeting devoted to bipartisanship, stirring renewed speculation that he will run as an independent. "People have stopped working together, government is dysfunctional, there's no collaborating and congeniality," said the mayor, who has said several times he does not intend to seek the White House. ---__ Associated Press writers Philip Elliott, Charles Babington, Beth Fouhy, Sara Kugler, Jim Kuhnhenn, Nedra Pickler, Libby Quaid, Beverly Wang and Glen Johnson contributed to this story.
How exactly is Clinton planning on winning? In the last two South Carolina polls, he is leading by 12% in one, and 20% in the other. These deficits seem to grow by about 8% on the day of election. So Obama with a 20%-28% lead over Hillary in South Carolina, how do you spin that? He's completely even with her in the national poll now at 33%. It'll be interesting to see how she is fairing in states like Nevada, Michigan, etc. when new polls come out (way long ago in December are the most recent for those.).
Her hope is to win some of the big states on super Tuesday. However, that's looking bleak at this point. States like California, New York, and Illinois represent a huge number of delegates, should she win there. The bad news for her is that her campaign donors are not going to fund her, so she's going to have to do it on the cheap. Typically the donors stop giving when they have serious doubts in the candidate's viability... And the Clinton campaign has to be the most expensive one to run in either party. I'm not sure she knows how to do it on the cheap.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Denny Crane @ Jan 7 2008, 09:09 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Her hope is to win some of the big states on super Tuesday. However, that's looking bleak at this point. States like California, New York, and Illinois represent a huge number of delegates, should she win there. The bad news for her is that her campaign donors are not going to fund her, so she's going to have to do it on the cheap. Typically the donors stop giving when they have serious doubts in the candidate's viability... And the Clinton campaign has to be the most expensive one to run in either party. I'm not sure she knows how to do it on the cheap.</div> New York, I take it, Hilary should win because she was a senator there. She isn't winning Illinois. From an old poll, Obama had a 26% lead there, thats likely grown since then. She had a 14% lead in a poll from almost a month ago in California. Obama had been gaining steadily on her, cutting down the deficit big time.
Watching CNN, they're at Manchester (however important that is), all of the signs were Ron Paul, and one Mitt Romney sign...lol. I wonder what type of splash Ron Paul could make. John Edwards continues to slam Clinton for Obama. Romney was talking about how Obama is a lock. The Republicans seem scared shitless of Obama. They were just planning on slamming Hilary Clinton, which would have been easy. The Republicans all seem to respect him a lot more than Hilary. How did Hilary expect to beat Obama? He has the most chantable name. Like come on, his name is Barrack Obama. With a name like that, he seems like he should be in Mortal Kombat. How many times has someone lost both Iowa and New Hampshire and then won the nominee.
Also, I don't get using youth against Obama. Some of the best leaders have been young. Kennedy was 44 when he came to office. Napoleon was 35 years old when he took reign in France. Hitler was 45 when he became fuhrer. (Not that I am saying Obama should be like him, but he turned around Germany from the Treaty of Versailles condition and fulfilled what the German people wanted). Youth seems to be a good thing in politics, especially when things are going bad, a young leader can bring vigor into the nation.
I think GW Bush lost both to McCain, and So. Carolina was his firewall. What's hard to really analyze is the independents. Right now, they're voting in the Democratic primaries in huge numbers; the question is whether they're doing so to vote against Hillary, or whether they're truly motivated to vote for a Democrat (obviously some are).
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Denny Crane @ Jan 7 2008, 10:17 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>I think GW Bush lost both to McCain, and So. Carolina was his firewall. What's hard to really analyze is the independents. Right now, they're voting in the Democratic primaries in huge numbers; the question is whether they're doing so to vote against Hillary, or whether they're truly motivated to vote for a Democrat (obviously some are).</div> That was part of the reason why her Super Tuesday was getting debunked. She was depending on these states because most of them aren't open primaries. Here is the flaw in her theory, the three largest states in order of pledged delegates are California, New York, and Illinois. Obama is a lock for Illinois, and Hilary for New York. Now California does have an open primary (debunking her theory for Super Tuesday), but not only that, but the GOP doesn't allow for Independants to vote in its primary, so they're forced to vote in the Democratic primary. In the last poll from mid december was Clinton 36%, Obama 22% among likely democratic voters. Thats old, so Obama likely closed that down some already. But according to CNN, 17% of likely primary goers are Independants. Not sure how it is going right now, but from everything I've seen, Obama has something like 90% of the independants support (when not having to lose some to Republicans). So if he has .9*17= 15.3% of the total from Indp, I think Clinton usually has around 3% of the indp., so she'd get .5% of the indps. Then she'd get 29.9% of total voters from the Dems, and Obama would get 18.3% from the Dems of the total vote. So Obama would win 33.6% to 30.4% because of the Independants swinging the vote. I think Hilary is done. She has to resort to dirty politics to get by. Not only does the nation not want this, but Obama doesn't have to get involved in it, because Edwards is willing to call her out so Obama doesn't. I think Edwards knows he isn't going to win (regardless of his two person race talk), he is just purposely sabotaging Hilary's campaign in hope of getting the VP or Supreme Court Justice spot, or whatever he's looking for. I think, if he wasn't running, he'd be a guy who votes for Obama. The more humiliating the loss for Hilary the better imo.
The results are in from Dixville Notch, famous for casting the first ballots in the elections. 17 votes cast: Obama 7 McCain 4 Edwards 2 Romney 2 Richardson 1 Giuliani 1 http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/08/nh.main/index.html First votes counted in New Hampshire primary DIXVILLE NOTCH, New Hampshire (CNN) -- The first people to cast ballots in New Hampshire favored Republican Sen. John McCain and Democratic Sen. Barack Obama. The results were announced at 12:08 a.m. in Dixville Notch, a hamlet of about 75 people near the Canadian border. Dixville Notch is the first community to vote in the first primary election of the 2008 presidential race. Among Republicans, McCain received four votes compared with two for Mitt Romney and one for Rudy Giuliani. Among Democrats, Obama received seven votes compared with two for John Edward's and one for Bill Richardson.
The Obama train will roll over everyone today. McCain will also win. It's South Carolina he's gotta be worried about.
McCain's done enough speeches at Bob Jones University to passify the folks there. At least that seems to be his plan.
Hilary Clinton 36% Barrack Obama 36% John Edwards 17% John McCain 38% Mitt Roney 29% Mike Huckabee 11% After 6%
