Talk may be cheap, but deal for Gasol would be costly

This article is a week old, but it goes into McGraw's line of thinking. I couldn't disagree more with his assessment, and I'll explain why in a followup post.

http://www.dailyherald.com/column/?id=112890

Talk may be cheap, but deal for Gasol would be costly By Mike McGraw | Daily Herald Columnist Published: 1/14/2008 12:08 AM In the next five weeks before the Feb. 20 trade deadline, we'll find out if the Bulls' patience with Pau Gasol pays off.

It has become trendy to blame general manager John Paxson for his failure to obtain Gasol, Kevin Garnett or Kobe Bryant. Whether the latter two stars were ever truly available to the Bulls is questionable.

In the case of Gasol, Paxson made the right call by refusing to send Luol Deng to Memphis last year. In between a couple of injuries and the team's poor play this season, Deng has made some nice strides and still appears to be a future all-star.

Paxson's philosophy a year ago at this time was a Gasol trade only made sense if the Bulls didn't have to part with Deng, Ben Gordon or Kirk Hinrich. It's possible that plan has shifted a bit with this season's slow start.

Talks regarding Gasol have resumed between the Bulls and the Grizzlies, though it's too soon to tell if they will go anywhere.

There are a couple of factors making such a deal difficult. One is that Memphis has a new general manager.

Last year, Paxson dealt with Jerry West. Now Chris Wallace is in charge, and he may be reluctant to part with the Grizzlies' centerpiece player, even with the team struggling again.

Wallace had a golden opportunity to remake the Grizzlies last summer into a high-energy, up-tempo team. He could have done a sign-and-trade sending Gasol to the Bulls for Andres Nocioni, Joakim Noah and filler, then used Memphis' cap room to sign Anderson Varejao to an offer sheet Cleveland was unlikely to match.

Without Gasol's big contract, the Grizzlies would have saved money and might have had the flexibility to add depth to the roster. Instead, Wallace used the cap space to sign lumbering center Darko Milicic, who has shown few signs of being an impact player and certainly doesn't fit in a fast-paced game.

Nocioni's representatives were left scratching their heads last summer after Wallace flew all the way to Buenos Aires to make a recruiting pitch to the Bulls' restricted free agent, then backed off suddenly after realizing the Bulls would match any offer sheet.

Six months later, is Wallace better prepared to make a firm decision about the Grizzlies' future? We'll see.

But even if the Bulls were able to acquire Gasol now without giving up Deng, Gordon or Hinrich, their payroll may not be able to absorb the addition. That would give the Bulls a $60 million starting lineup for the next two seasons, assuming Deng and Gordon eventually sign extensions that begin in the $10 million range.

The luxury-tax threshold is $67.9 million this season, which doesn't leave much room for a supporting cast. If the Bulls had acquired Gasol a year ago, at least they would have had a season-and-a-half to judge the results before it came time to give Deng and Gordon raises.

If the Bulls can acquire Gasol, Paxson might feel the need to move Hinrich or Ben Wallace for multiple players with smaller contracts. But that's always a risky maneuver, and the Bulls likely would have to take on longer-term salary commitments in return.

Another scenario is Memphis makes Gasol available only if the Bulls also agree to take on Brian Cardinal's albatross contract, which runs about $13 million for the next two seasons. That would make it even more difficult for the Bulls to balance the payroll.

The prospects aren't great for a major trade by the Bulls. New Jersey's Jason Kidd is not being shopped, and Houston's Tracy McGrady appears to be a longshot.

McGrady is a tough call anyway because he has been injury prone, is owed $44 million over the next two seasons and has never been beyond the first round of the playoffs.

mmcgraw@dailyherald.com

 

The flaw in his argument is simple. He says we'd be on the hook for $60M for 5 guys, assuming Deng and Gordon sign big extensions.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>But even if the Bulls were able to acquire Gasol now without giving up Deng, Gordon or Hinrich, their payroll may not be able to absorb the addition. That would give the Bulls a $60 million starting lineup for the next two seasons, assuming Deng and Gordon eventually sign extensions that begin in the $10 million range.</div>

One season, then Big Ben is an expiring contract. That is assuming Gordon and Deng do sign extensions of that size. It's just as likely that Pax tells the two to go get their best offers, which will be in MLE range, and the players forced to choose between $7.5M sized deals or risk injuries playing out the QO. Or one of them.

Beyond that, you have guys like Thabo, Duhon, Thomas, and Noah who are pretty cheap. Wallace and Hinrich are on declining contracts (pay less as seasons progress).

Face the facts. Paxson made a big mistake in signing Wallace (and not signing a 2nd quality vet/star). The cost of fixing the problem may well be a year or two over the cap. The alternative is to suck for at least two more seasons.

That's assuming the Bulls want to keep Hinrich and Gordon and Deng at $10M+ contracts. I suspect one would be traded.

 

I should add that you have to trade 75% of Gasol's contract to make the deal work under the CBA. At worst, the Bulls would be paying that 25% of Gasol's contract extra in salary.

 

The idea is to have 2 guys with declining salaries and 2 with increasing so they balance out. Declining at the time meant more immediate cap space.