<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Denny Crane @ Mar 24 2008, 10:03 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>I want to add that 1.25M donors since day 1 is a remarkable figure. Daily KOS needs a dose of reality Speaking of bias... I've been watching CNN for most of the past day and they're reporting the 4,000th US soldier death in Iraq every 2 minutes, and rather gleefully, I add. Not even Fox News reports the surge is working every 2 minutes And the surge is working. Where's the every two minute report about kids safely making their way to school every day, or more electricity in Iraq than before the overthrow of Saddam, the remarkable success of the Kurds in the north, the introduction of basic services in the South? Etc. Just to show how propaganda works, CNN had an online poll during one of the shows, and 87% of the people said the war can't be won and that we should bring our troops home immediately. Just how out of touch is CNN and its viewers? http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content...roop_withdrawal When it comes to the war in Iraq, the US should... Withdraw 23% Home in 1 year 36% Stay 35%</div> I'm in complete agreement about your comments about the 4000. It's really disgusting -- this is why people hate politicians. (and pundits even more.) Check out this image that is circulating: Really. Really? You're going to use the images of the soldiers who gave the last full measure of devotion to make some cheap ass political statement. **** that. How many of those soldiers don't want their image on something like this. And the "artist" either doesn't give a damn, or is so insensitive they don't realize what they're doing. (It reminds of how the Red-Cross and Israel tried to spin September 11 within hours of the event to their advantage. I'll never forget that.)
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Denny Crane @ Mar 24 2008, 11:39 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>SST - There's this: http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=...89-ee15290e6e96 By a left-wing-ish mag. Thoughts?</div> I'm not really worried. Perhaps I should be, but I'm not. Obama is way in front in the delegate count -- it's not close despite the media narrative. He has all the major party leaders on his side. We have the benefit of prior history and how this can play out negatively. But more than that: Obama is both the delegate victor and the candidate who carries the excitement. He's been killing Hillary in fund raising and organization -- a harsh contrast to 80. Obama has proven to have more faithful delegates, as seen in how Hillary has been losing one here and there in states with phased conventions. I also heard last week that a size able proportion of the 35 million she raised last month was actually pledged money for the general -- fake donations to inflate her overall number. He's the better politician, when it all comes down to it. And he is not going to lose either of NC or IN and Hillary really needs to win both to even stay within a close loss. It's tough times for camp Hillary. The primary is over, we're just watching the clock run out.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (such sweet thunder @ Mar 24 2008, 08:57 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Denny Crane @ Mar 24 2008, 11:39 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>SST - There's this: http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=...89-ee15290e6e96 By a left-wing-ish mag. Thoughts?</div> I'm not really worried. Perhaps I should be, but I'm not. Obama is way in front in the delegate count -- it's not close despite the media narrative. He has all the major party leaders on his side. We have the benefit of prior history and how this can play out negatively. But more than that: Obama is both the delegate victor and the candidate who carries the excitement. He's been killing Hillary in fund raising and organization -- a harsh contrast to 80. Obama has proven to have more faithful delegates, as seen in how Hillary has been losing one here and there in states with phased conventions. I also heard last week that a size able proportion of the 35 million she raised last month was actually pledged money for the general -- fake donations to inflate her overall number. He's the better politician, when it all comes down to it. And he is not going to lose either of NC or IN and Hillary really needs to win both to even stay within a close loss. It's tough times for camp Hillary. The primary is over, we're just watching the clock run out. </div> Didn't KOS support Hillary at the start of all this? Pact with the devil, or whatever you want to call it. Desperate to win, regardless of who the winner turns out to be. Yuk. Obama's ahead, blah blah. Neither candidate will have enough delgates going into the convention, so it drags out. You can't ignore the rules of how it works; it's equivalent to both running a marthon but not crossing the finish line, tho Obama was a few footsteps ahead at the time. If Obama is just one delegate short come convention time, Hillary would make a bloody fight out of it. Fits the "torpedo Obama so she can run again in 2012" plan.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>Neither candidate will have enough PLEDGED delgates going into the convention</div> Fixed. Obama only needs 43% of the outstanding Pledged and Super delegates to win the nomination. This could DEFINETELY happen prior to the convention.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (JayJohnstone @ Mar 25 2008, 11:14 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>Neither candidate will have enough PLEDGED delgates going into the convention</div> Fixed. Obama only needs 43% of the outstanding Pledged and Super delegates to win the nomination. This could DEFINETELY happen prior to the convention. </div> I thought the whole point of super delegates was they didn't have to actually cast a final decision until the convention. They might publicly say something, but that's not really binding in any way.
How about this, SST? http://www.tcpalm.com/news/2008/mar/24/mar...ore-led-ticket/ Mark Tomasik: Don’t discount Gore-led ticket By Mark Tomasik Monday, March 24, 2008 U.S. Rep. Tim Mahoney, whose district includes much of Martin and St. Lucie counties, is hoping he won’t have to attend the Democratic Party national convention in Denver in August. If he does go, that will mean the Democrats still haven’t decided a nominee for the presidential election. And if neither Sen. Hillary Clinton nor Sen. Barack Obama has clinched the nomination by August, Mahoney says we may see a brokered convention, meaning the nominee could emerge from a negotiated settlement. “If it (the nomination process) goes into the convention, don’t be surprised if someone different is at the top of the ticket,” Mahoney said. A compromise candidate could be someone such as former vice president Al Gore, Mahoney said last week during a meeting with this news organization’s editorial board. If either Clinton or Obama suggested to a deadlocked convention a ticket of Gore-Clinton or Gore-Obama, the Democratic Party would accept it, Mahoney said. Mahoney, who is one of the superdelegates who gets to cast a vote at the convention, hasn’t endorsed a candidate. He said he doesn’t intend to endorse anyone because “I don’t see it as my job as a district representative” to endorse a nominee for the presidential race. If neither Clinton nor Obama has enough delegates to secure the nomination by the time the convention starts Aug. 25, Mahoney will have to cast a superdelegate vote for someone. Superdelegates make up about one-fifth of the total number of delegates to the convention and are free to support any candidate for nomination. Most superdelegates are current or former elected officeholders or party officials. As an uncommitted superdelegate, Mahoney said he has been wooed by Clinton and Obama for an endorsement. Clinton has been the more aggressive solicitor, Mahoney said. Mahoney said he has met twice with Obama. He has met more often with Clinton. Two weeks ago, Mahoney attended a cocktail party at Clinton’s house in Washington, D.C., he said. Mahoney told of how impressed he is by Clinton’s commitment to helping people and her human touch. When Clinton learned that Mahoney’s daughter is interested in horses, she called the girl to encourage her interest, Mahoney said. While Mahoney hasn’t committed to either contender, he clearly likes Clinton and her stance on issues. He praised her for having a grasp of matters of importance to Floridians, especially homeowners insurance reform. (He also made the point that Sen. John McCain, the apparent Republican presidential nominee, is the only candidate in either party not to support national reform of homeowners insurance.) Mahoney described Clinton as being “incredibly bright, very personable” and having “an unbelievable grasp of policy” during his meetings with her. Mahoney said he had intended to skip the convention because “I have better things to do in my district” than attend what recently has become a glorified pep rally. He will stay away if his superdelegate vote isn’t needed. Meanwhile, he’s lobbying to get the results of the Jan. 29 Florida primary vote to count. The national Democratic Party and its chairman, Howard Dean, stripped Florida of its delegates as punishment for violating party rules by moving up the state’s primary date from March to Jan. 29. Dean banned the Democratic candidates from campaigning in Florida. Still, a record 1.75 million Democrats voted in the Florida primary. Clinton won by 17 percentage points. A recent statewide poll of registered Democratic voters by the St. Petersburg Times and its television partner showed that the campaigning boycott of Florida had little effect on Democratic voters’ choices in the Jan. 29 primary. The poll showed that 56 percent said the lack of campaigning had “no effect at all” on their vote. Also, 77 percent of the people polled said that it is “very important” to them that the results of the Jan. 29 primary count. Mirroring our editorial board’s position and the poll results, Mahoney said the Jan. 29 results should be counted and the full slate of delegates should be seated at the convention. “The delegates have to be treated fairly and responsibly and given full weight,” Mahoney said. The St. Petersburg Times poll showed that one in four state Democrats might not vote for the party’s nominee if Florida delegates aren’t given a full say in the presidential nomination. That would seem to indicate that all Florida Democratic candidates for office in November could be in jeopardy of losing support. Mahoney dismisses this notion, saying the issues are too important for Democratic voters to either sit out the election or vote Republican. Democrats need to first clean up the mess they made in Florida and honor the votes of the Jan. 29 primary before they try to convince voters they successfully can govern the nation.
The Super Delegates endorsements/votes aren't binding, but all of the party leadership is in place. Here's the trifecta from Senator Reid today: Link : Do you still think the Democratic race can be resolved before the convention? Reid: Easy. Q: How is that? Reid: It will be done. Q: It just will? Reid: Yep. Q: Magically? Reid: No, it will be done. I had a conversation with Governor Dean (Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean) today. Things are being done. Reid along with Dean and Pelosi means all three of the most powerful Dems in the party are speaking in unison on this one: they want this settled now. (Theoretically, you could also add in Gore, Richardson, and Jimmy Carter, for whatever it's worth.) I'm guessing the target date is NC/Indiana. Another way to look at this is, what would it take for Clinton to win? Complete disillusionment of the party's minority base and youth contingency, and no shot at winning in the general. In other words, no matter how bad it gets -- how much crap she digs up -- nominating her will not only be throwing this election away, but likely killing the party in future presidential races and a large number of other federal positions. It's bleak. I would have to believe that there was all kind of good or at least compelling reasons to nominate Kennedy. There is nothing to be gained from nominating Clinton. That's the end of the story, and the reason why, before the two recent endorsements in Pennsylvania, Clinton hadn't pulled in a single super delegate since Super Tuesday. Moving on to more important topics: <object width="425" height="355"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/axxooGIgOKs&hl=en"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/axxooGIgOKs&hl=en" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="355"></embed></object> Um, how do I say this gently: do you think they're real? I wonder.
Reid: the troops will be home as soon as democrats take over congress. Reid: the surge isn't working, the war is lost. The guy's a tool. I don't believe a word he says, nor that he believes a word he says
^^^ Same goes for Pelosi. Everything that was broken has been fixed in the first 100 hours, right? LOL Wait, she doesn't care about being divisive within her own party. Remember all that crap about Steny Hoyer and the chairmanships in the first hour? Let's just say I take it all with a grain of salt. No matter what, Hillary doesn't have to quit until the voting at the convention is done and Obama (or someone else) is declared the winner. That's what I fully expect her to do - never surrender until it's "officially" over... All that without people in Michigan and Florida having their votes counted. Un-Democratic.
For that matter, it's not as if I'd expect Reid and Pelosi to come up with a competent plan to end the battle even if they're trying to. Reid: Hillary, you have to throw in the towel, you can't win. Clinton: Get bent. I'm gonna win 10 straight going into the convention. And not just any 10, but 10 that are important states we actually have a chance of winning in November. Who gives a rat's ass if Obama wins the Alabama primary? Do you really want to nominate a guy who's spent the last 20 years listening to hate speech every Sunday? A vast majority of Americans don't want to go down that path. Reid: Hmmm... Barack? Obama: Yeah. Reid: How would you like to be Vice President? Obama: I've got the votes. You know, I've been out there campaigning while Hillary was reinventing herself as the Bosnian Douglas MacAurthur. America has seen that movie before. For 8 years, and we don't want to see it again. Reid: Did you know Vice President is my boss in the senate? Obama: Fuck you. Reid: No, fuck you.
It's as official as it's going to be: Hillary is looking for a credentials fight at the convention. It's not going to end before that. She told a number of news outlets yesterday that she basically dares the democratic party to choose a nominee without seating delegates from Michigan and Florida. There's zero doubt that she can take the fight to the convention.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Denny Crane @ Mar 27 2008, 12:50 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>He needs 2025 delegates, period.</div> He'll need an even lower percentage when he's done with the primaries. Keep dreaming.
why bother having primaries in all 48 states that the democratic party recognizes? Just annoint whoever wins the first one, they got a % of the votes needed, after all!
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Denny Crane @ Mar 27 2008, 04:10 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>why bother having primaries in all 48 states that the democratic party recognizes? Just annoint whoever wins the first one, they got a % of the votes needed, after all!</div> Well, Obama, barring being found in bed with a dead woman or a live boy, will officially win over half of the national vote and delegates by NC/IN. I mean, it's great to hear the rest of the nation, but if it's already decided, and a messy primary is hurting the party, I don' t think the contest should go on for some pedantic rationale. I think that's a reasonable enough statement that almost all of the party will agree with. That's going to be tipping point day for superdelegates too. There are all kind of reports of supers covertly saying they are going to vote for Obama, who haven't come out publicly yet. They're waiting for May 6. And, at that point, if Obama's crossed the 2025 threshold by 100 or so, which is wholly within the realm of possibility, this contest will be over. The press story will shift exclusively to "Why is Hillary still in the race?" as it did for Huckabee. All kinds of, she's trying to sink Obama so she can run again four years from now will follow -- none of which I believe. (I give her the benefit of the doubt that she's really just that power hungry.) Her negatives will go even higher -- if that's possible. And most of all, her donors will stop. It'll be over.
The republicans penalized both MI and FL by only counting 1/2 their delegates. Not a peep or complaint about it, especially compared to the "democratic" mess. What happened to the 2000 "count all the votes" mantra? I actually want Obama to win - more than I can express, frankly. But I also think the votes should count, and if all Hillary ends up doing is forcing that to happen, it's a good thing in the end. As much as we want to rationalize giving the nomination to Obama, the hard facts are still there: 1) He didn't win the required # of delegates. 2) He would be awarded the nomination by super delegates in something of a smoke filled room scenario. 3) The voters of two pretty big states were both insulted and disenfranchised by the process. I do think there's real merit in the super delegates voting the way their districts voted. It's an automatic thing and shows the will of the voters. That Obama ran 300 yards and won in a 400 yard race is a pretty arbitrary measure of why to use a very undemocratic voting power to anoint him the nominee, if you know what I mean.
Hillary will be out before Pennsylvania. She is no longer a viable candidate. 37% approval...you can't win with 37% of the vote. In wake of the Wright scandal, Obama is ahead of McCain 44 to 42 in the latest head to head from WSJ/NBC (and he is favored more than it looks based on that poll, since McCain is running up the score huge in racist states like Kentucky, West Virginia, Alabama, and Arkansas in these polls). Hillary is losing 46 to 44. In the latest Dem polls, Obama leads Clinton 49 to 39. Survey USA did a set of polls, including six in recent swing states, and Hillary had numbers above 46% (I will not vote for Hillary no matter what) in all of those states. She was already at 50% in Wisconsin, a state the Democrats have had hold on for a long time. Obama's only number that was that high was in Ohio, which he never really had any chance of beating McCain in. The most recent set of head to heads. Oregon: Obama 48 McCain 42 / Clinton 40 McCain 46 Conneticut: Obama 52 McCain 35 / Clinton 45 McCain 42 California: Obama 49 McCain 40 / Clinton 46 McCain 43 Nevada: Obama 45 McCain 41 / Clinton 44 McCain 43 Washington: Obama 45 McCain 39 / Clinton 38 McCain 41 Minnesota: Obama 47 McCain 43 / Clinton 46 McCain 47 Chris Dodd today said that democrats have to end this thing, Bill Richardson said it during his endorsement. I think Edwards, Gore, Pelosi, etc. will all help to close this thing down, and if they don't end it before Pennsylvania, they will work so that she loses in Pennsylvania so that she has to get out to save face.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Denny Crane @ Mar 27 2008, 08:07 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>The republicans penalized both MI and FL by only counting 1/2 their delegates. Not a peep or complaint about it, especially compared to the "democratic" mess. What happened to the 2000 "count all the votes" mantra? I actually want Obama to win - more than I can express, frankly. But I also think the votes should count, and if all Hillary ends up doing is forcing that to happen, it's a good thing in the end. As much as we want to rationalize giving the nomination to Obama, the hard facts are still there: 1) He didn't win the required # of delegates. 2) He would be awarded the nomination by super delegates in something of a smoke filled room scenario. 3) The voters of two pretty big states were both insulted and disenfranchised by the process. I do think there's real merit in the super delegates voting the way their districts voted. It's an automatic thing and shows the will of the voters. That Obama ran 300 yards and won in a 400 yard race is a pretty arbitrary measure of why to use a very undemocratic voting power to anoint him the nominee, if you know what I mean.</div> I can't argue with anything you said, really. The only thing I want to note is that the clinch number, 2025, was actually lowered to account for Florida and Michigan not being counted. That changed my outlook a little. The superdelegates were always needed to clinch the election -- which is jive in every respect, but we all know that. A counter argument to your general statement is that: yes, the process isn't very democratic. But it never is. We know this. Why can't 16 year olds' vote? Wouldn't it be great if they could teach voting in high school? I think it would. How many people have children by 16? They deserve a vote too. It's a bad process. It could be better, like the Republican model. I'm sure they'll change it this next election season. But we're stuck with it for now.
