If the Playoffs Started Today

Discussion in 'Denver Nuggets' started by tremaine, Feb 15, 2008.

  1. tremaine

    tremaine To Win, Be Like Fitz

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    I found the NBA League official playoff seeds page, which is updated daily. All the tiebreakers are explained in total detail, and there is head to head info so you can find out, if you are a Nuggets fan, how the Nuggets have done versus the Warriors and the Rockets.

    Assuming the Hornets, the Lakers, the Suns, the Mavericks, the Spurs, and the Jazz are playoff locks, if the Nuggets lose out to both the Warriors and the Rockets, they miss the playoffs! Someone is going to be left holding the chump bag: they are going to be a good winning team but they are not going to get a playoff series. Right now, the Nuggets are 1-1 vs. Golden State with 2 games left, on March 29 and April 10. The Nuggets are also 1-1 against the Rockets with 2 games left, on March 2 and April 13. The April 13 game against the Rockets will be back to back for the Nuggets but not for the Rockets, making that one a very likely Rockets win. There are no other back to back circumstances for any team among the 4 Nuggets games left versus the Warriors and the Rockets.

    Playoff Picture Updated Daily at the NBA Site

    If the playoffs were to start now, here is what I think would happen:

    #1 New Orleans vs #8 Denver...Prediction: New Orleans 4 Denver 1
    #2 Phoenix vs #7 Golden State...Prediction: Phoenix 4 Golden State 3
    #3 Los Angeles vs #6 Dallas...Prediction: Los Angeles 4 Dallas 2
    #4 Utah vs #5 San Antonio...Prediction: San Antonio 4 Utah 2

    #1 Boston vs #8 Philadelphia...Prediction: Boston 4 Philadelphia 0
    #2 Detroit vs #7 New Jersey...Prediction: Detroit 4 New Jersey 1
    #3 Orlando vs #6 Washington...Prediction: Orlando 4 Washington 1
    #4 Cleveland vs #5 Toronto...Prediction: Toronto 4 Cleveland 3

    <u>Conference Semifinals</u>
    New Orleans 4 San Antonio 3
    Los Angeles 4 Phoenix 2

    Boston 4 Toronto 1
    Detroit 4 Orlando 1

    <u>Conference Finals</u>
    Los Angeles 4 New Orleans 2

    Boston 4 Detroit 3

    <u>NBA Championship</u>
    Los Angeles 4 Boston 3

    NBA PLAYOFF MECHANICS EXPLAINED
    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>Following the NBA regular season, eight teams in each conference qualify for the playoffs and are seeded one to eight.

    The team that has the best record in each of the three divisions in each conference is declared division champion. The three champions, and the one other team in the conference with the best record are seeded one through four by their records. This guarantees that the division champions will be no lower than fourth seed, and also ensures that a conference's two best teams (by record) are ranked as the top two. Of the remaining 11 conference teams, the four with the best records are seeded fifth through eighth based on their records.

    In the event that two teams end up tied for the same seed, the following tiebreakers are employed:

    1. Head-to-head
    2. Division record (if the teams are in the same division)
    3. Conference record
    4. Record vs. Playoff teams, own conference
    5. Record vs. Playoff teams, other conference
    6. Net points, all games
    The first round of the playoffs, or Conference Quarterfinals, consists of four matchups in each conference, based on the seedings (1-8, 2-7, 3-6, and 4-5). The eight winners advance to the second round, or Conference Semifinals, in which, unlike other leagues (such as the NHL, matchups are set in advance as between the winners of the 1-8 and 4-5 series, and the winners of the 2-7 and 3-6 series, and not based on the seeds of the winners of those series. The winners of these series advance to the NBA Conference Finals, which determines which team in each conference will advance to the NBA Finals, the winner of which is declared the NBA champion.

    Each round is a best-of-seven series. All series except the NBA Finals are played in a 2-2-1-1-1 format, meaning the team with home-court advantage hosts games 1, 2, 5 and 7, while their opponent hosts games 3, 4, and 6, with games 5-7 being played if needed. The NBA Finals are played in a 2-3-2 format, meaning the team with home-court advantage hosts games 1, 2, 6 and 7, and their opponent hosts games 3, 4 and 5. The home-court advantage is determined in all four rounds by record, regardless of seed.</div>

    Source
     
  2. Shapecity

    Shapecity S2/JBB Teamster Staff Member Administrator

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    The Nuggets and Hornets in round 1 would be a helluva a match-up and very entertaining. Out of the current top 4 seeds I think the Nuggets match-up best against the Hornets.

    The Nuggets are 1-2 on the season, but Denver has never had their roster at full strength. The Hornets don't have an inside presence and rely a lot on the perimeter shooting of Peja and West to win games.

    Typically jump shooting teams don't have much success in the post season because defenses clamp down and outside shots come and go from game to game.

    If the Nuggets are healthy come playoff time I think they can pull off the upset. New Orleans doesn't have post season experience and they'll be faced with a lot of pressure coming out of the West as the #1 seed.

    Chris Paul will be a nightmare, but he'll have an equally tough challenge of chasing Iverson around.

    If the Nuggets can come away with a split in the 1st two games I give the a real shot at taking the series.
     
  3. tremaine

    tremaine To Win, Be Like Fitz

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    The Nuggets could easily win 2 games against the Hornets if Nene is back. And they could win 3 or 4 games versus the Hornets if everything was in the Nuggets favor, including especially Nene being available to help out up front and Mr. Karl keeping his composure and not completely benching anyone among the best 10 Nuggets either leading up to the playoffs or in the playoffs.

    And I think I agree that the Hornets would be a relative gift for the 8th seed. But the Hornets have to hold the #1 seed in order to set up the possible 8 vs 1 upset, and it's not going to be easy for them to do that.

    Way to be optimistic Shapecity. You never know for sure. As my sig says regarding the Nuggets, "Stranger Things Have Happened."
     
  4. tremaine

    tremaine To Win, Be Like Fitz

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    The Rockets, the Warriors, and the Nuggets are all currently 32-20, and if the playoffs were to start now, one of them would not be in the playoffs.

    These are the playoff seed tie-breakers:

    1. Head-to-head
    2. Division record (if the teams are in the same division)
    3. Conference record
    4. Record vs. Playoff teams, own conference
    5. Record vs. Playoff teams, other conference
    6. Net points, all games

    NBA.com has the Nuggets as the 8th seed and the Rockets out of the playoffs, while the ESPN standings have the Rockets as the 8th seed and the Nuggets out of the playoffs. Who is right? ESPN is correct. If the playoffs started today, the Nuggets would not be in the playoffs, because both the Warriors and the Rockets have a better West Conference record.

    For a more reliable daily playoff seeding view, be very wary of the NBA.com link I gave you. Who knows whether and when they will get their act together. I was fooled into thinking NBA.com had it correct. But the ESPN standings are more reliable:

    ESPN Standings, With Accurate Playoff Seeding Shown
     
  5. tremaine

    tremaine To Win, Be Like Fitz

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    The Nuggets are back in the playoffs again after the huge win over the Celtics. Now they can put some real distance between them and what will be the ultimate chump spot, 9th. in the West, by beating two lottery teams of the East on the road this Friday and Saturday, at Chicago and Milwaukee. By winning both, the Nuggets can shut me up about not making the playoffs for at least 10 days and probably a lot longer.

    Nuggets Back in the Playoffs After Huge Win

    And the Nuggets are now slightly more likely to get the last playoff berth than are the Warriors, though it's still tight:

    Nuggets Move Very Slightly Ahead of Warriors in Playoff Odds
     
  6. Answer_AI03

    Answer_AI03 JBB JustBBall Member

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    I'm thinking the Nuggets are aiming alot higher than the 8th seed. The west is so tight its very possible that they could still be the number 1 seed. Especially if they can pull off the trade for artest before tomorrow.
     
  7. Whatthef?

    Whatthef? Sactown Laker

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    No way NO beats SA.
     
  8. Moo2K4

    Moo2K4 NBA West Producer

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    I wouldn't say there's no way that NO beats them. I think there's an outside shot actually. They have a young and athletic team, which is the type of team that can give the aging Spurs fits.
     

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