<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (huevonkiller @ Feb 24 2008, 12:37 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats with a 284 to 229 lead in the Electoral College. If leaners� are not included, the Democrats lead 238 to 189. Since yesterday, North Carolina has shifted from Safe Republican to Likely Republican while Wisconsin has shifted from Likely Democrat to Leans Democrat. New polling has been released today for Wisconsin and New Mexico. The Balance of Power Calculator determines projections by aggregating a variety of information from many sources including polls, the Rasmussen Markets, analyst assessments and more (see summary of recent state general election polling).</div> http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content...l_tracking_poll Democrats still lead the election Denny. </div> Notice the Safe numbers. Judging by this data, it still boils down to Ohio, PA, and FLA. Put Ohio in the republican column and McCain wins. I also find it hard to believe McCain won't win New Hampshire and a few others in the Dem column. Balance of Power Calculator - Electoral College Safe Republican 168 Likely Republican 21 Leans Republican 40 Toss-Up 25 Leans Democrat 46 Likely Democrat 84 Safe Democrat 154 Safely Democratic: California (55), Connecticut (7), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), New York (31), Rhode Island (4), and Vermont (3). Likely Democratic: Delaware (3), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (15), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), and Washington (11). Leans Democratic: Iowa (7), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Ohio (20), and Wisconsin (10). [LINK] Toss-Up: Colorado (9), Missouri (11), and Nevada (5). Leans Republican: Florida (27), Virginia (13). Likely Republican: Arkansas (6), North Carolina (15). Safely Republican: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5) and Wyoming (3).
^^^ Interesting about Ohio, for example. I don't know why they call it "leans democratic" http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content...ential_election The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone poll finds that John McCain attracts 42% of the vote in the Buckeye State while Barack Obama earns 41%. Nine percent (9%) said they would vote for some other candidate while 8% are undecided. McCain leads by ten points among men while Obama leads by seven among women. Following his victory in the Wisconsin Presidential Primary, Obama is now seen as the overwhelming favorite to win the Democratic Presidential Nomination. If Hillary Clinton is able to mount a comeback and become the Democratic nominee, she trails McCain by three percentage points. It’s McCain 46% Clinton 43%. McCain leads Clinton by ten among men and trails by five among women.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Denny Crane @ Feb 24 2008, 08:13 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>^^^ Interesting about Ohio, for example. I don't know why they call it "leans democratic" http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content...ential_election The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone poll finds that John McCain attracts 42% of the vote in the Buckeye State while Barack Obama earns 41%. Nine percent (9%) said they would vote for some other candidate while 8% are undecided. McCain leads by ten points among men while Obama leads by seven among women. Following his victory in the Wisconsin Presidential Primary, Obama is now seen as the overwhelming favorite to win the Democratic Presidential Nomination. If Hillary Clinton is able to mount a comeback and become the Democratic nominee, she trails McCain by three percentage points. It?€™s McCain 46% Clinton 43%. McCain leads Clinton by ten among men and trails by five among women.</div> What you don't realize Denny, is Obama is the one gaining momentum, I fully expect him to continue this exponential growth. Florida is also probably going Democratic. As I keep mentioning, I think the Primary turnout is a huge indicator. Many Republicans will simply stay home election night. <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>If “leaners” are not included, the Democrats lead 238 to 189.</div> I also don't buy these polls as the end all, since Obama has led McCain in most of the polls up to this day.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (huevonkiller @ Feb 24 2008, 05:26 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Denny Crane @ Feb 24 2008, 08:13 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>^^^ Interesting about Ohio, for example. I don't know why they call it "leans democratic" http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content...ential_election The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone poll finds that John McCain attracts 42% of the vote in the Buckeye State while Barack Obama earns 41%. Nine percent (9%) said they would vote for some other candidate while 8% are undecided. McCain leads by ten points among men while Obama leads by seven among women. Following his victory in the Wisconsin Presidential Primary, Obama is now seen as the overwhelming favorite to win the Democratic Presidential Nomination. If Hillary Clinton is able to mount a comeback and become the Democratic nominee, she trails McCain by three percentage points. It�€™s McCain 46% Clinton 43%. McCain leads Clinton by ten among men and trails by five among women.</div> What you don't realize Denny, is Obama is the one gaining momentum, I fully expect him to continue this exponential growth. Florida is also probably going Democratic. As I keep mentioning, I think the Primary turnout is a huge indicator. Many Republicans will simply stay home election night. <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>If “leaners” are not included, the Democrats lead 238 to 189.</div> I also don't buy these polls as the end all, since Obama has led McCain in most of the polls up to this day. </div> McCain was written off as if his campaign was through months ago. He's been gaining momentum all along. There's no evidence whatsoever that Obama is gaining on or pulling away from McCain at this point. Florida? McCain has a huge lead there right now.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Denny Crane @ Feb 24 2008, 08:42 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (huevonkiller @ Feb 24 2008, 05:26 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Denny Crane @ Feb 24 2008, 08:13 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>^^^ Interesting about Ohio, for example. I don't know why they call it "leans democratic" http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content...ential_election The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone poll finds that John McCain attracts 42% of the vote in the Buckeye State while Barack Obama earns 41%. Nine percent (9%) said they would vote for some other candidate while 8% are undecided. McCain leads by ten points among men while Obama leads by seven among women. Following his victory in the Wisconsin Presidential Primary, Obama is now seen as the overwhelming favorite to win the Democratic Presidential Nomination. If Hillary Clinton is able to mount a comeback and become the Democratic nominee, she trails McCain by three percentage points. It�?‚??„?s McCain 46% Clinton 43%. McCain leads Clinton by ten among men and trails by five among women.</div> What you don't realize Denny, is Obama is the one gaining momentum, I fully expect him to continue this exponential growth. Florida is also probably going Democratic. As I keep mentioning, I think the Primary turnout is a huge indicator. Many Republicans will simply stay home election night. <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>If ?€œleaners?€? are not included, the Democrats lead 238 to 189.</div> I also don't buy these polls as the end all, since Obama has led McCain in most of the polls up to this day. </div> McCain was written off as if his campaign was through months ago. He's been gaining momentum all along. There's no evidence whatsoever that Obama is gaining on or pulling away from McCain at this point. Florida? McCain has a huge lead there right now. </div> ~I wouldn't be comparing McCain's momentum to Obama's. McCain is going to win the GOP race because he is more moderate, that's all. His peers were pathetic, thus accounting for the Parity. Why are you forgetting about Obama's position in the Democratic race in December 2007? I wouldn't count him off either. ~I fail to see how there's evidence that McCain is deinfitively ahead in the polls, it's a dead heat. I see Polls all the time on Fox/CNN that had Obama ahead by 5 points. ~Florida is not part of the Bible belt and has gone to Democrats in recent history. It's definitely a toss-up sort of state that I eventually expect to go to Obama. He doesn't need to "pull" away from McCain either in this election. Hell, **** Florida in this race too.
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content...ential_election The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Florida shows John McCain holding a six-percentage point lead over Hillary Clinton and an even larger lead—sixteen percentage points—over Barack Obama. It’s McCain 49% Clinton 43% and McCain 53% Obama 37%.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Denny Crane @ Feb 24 2008, 09:22 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content...ential_election The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Florida shows John McCain holding a six-percentage point lead over Hillary Clinton and an even larger lead?€”sixteen percentage points?€”over Barack Obama. It?€™s McCain 49% Clinton 43% and McCain 53% Obama 37%.</div> Denny, I am making a prediction about Florida, I completely got your original point. The Democrats still have the Electoral vote more locked up according to your own sources. " **** Florida " I recall saying.
McCain's momentum doesn't compare to Obama's? That's a stretch statement to say the least. With the Hillary tantrum yesterday about Obama distorting her record, combined with the recent plagarism accusations, how can you say that that doesn't hurt Obama even a little bit? IMO there's a very real possibility that Hillary wins Ohio and maybe Texas as well.
And I'm sticking to what I wrote, which is the race comes down to 3 states: OH, FLA, and PA, whoever wins 2 of 3 wins the electoral college. McCain is up in two of the three.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Real @ Feb 24 2008, 09:26 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>McCain's momentum doesn't compare to Obama's? That's a stretch statement to say the least. With the Hillary tantrum yesterday about Obama distorting her record, combined with the recent plagarism accusations, how can you say that that doesn't hurt Obama even a little bit? IMO there's a very real possibility that Hillary wins Ohio and maybe Texas as well.</div> There is absolutely no realistic possibility that Hillary wins the DELEGATE race in Texas. When did I say she won't win ohio? So what? Obama will win North Carolina, Mississppi and a slew of other states. Clinton is done, people have done the math Real. I'm not just pulling shit out of my ass. The battle is between McCain and Obama. Hillary sounds like a complete idiot because Duvall gave Obama permission to say a couple of lines and she has no credibility. She said she was the first senator to point out Darfur, she wasn't. She has plagiarized more, she has made offensive remarks in the past to various people, she's an obnoxious liar. Hillary was "the annointed bitch", there was no such person like that in the GOP race. Obama has easily more momentum, all the Republican candidates had a shot at the start after Rudy lost ground to Romney and such. Obama has come back from bigger deficits if I'm not mistaken. <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>And I'm sticking to what I wrote, which is the race comes down to 3 states: OH, FLA, and PA, whoever wins 2 of 3 wins the electoral college. McCain is up in two of the three.</div> Source? Why does Rasmussen disagree with you then? You have implied that they are pretty reliable. Looks like some republicans don't care enough to vote. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20...t/national.html Most polls disagree Denny.
Obama distorting Hillary's record? Lol you can't be serious. With her universal health care, the cost for young people to get insured would sky rocket, not even including the subsidizing they already do for old people. That's laughable, if anything her comments have been distorting. He "leaves out" 15 million. Both their plans have the same goal, they just go about it in different fashions.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Denny Crane @ Feb 24 2008, 10:12 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Source? I posted the source. You quoted me in post 24 of this thread.</div> Denny, i don't understand how you could use Rasmussen, the only poll with Obama ahead in the source I posted, and then not follow what they said about the Electoral college.
Rasmussen is polling the states, and the states' votes make up the electoral college. In Ohio, McCain is up by 1% or 2%. In Florida, McCain is up by like 14%. Rasmussen is doing their "leaning" type of data not based upon the state polls, but based upon their "stock market" game. In that, Obama is up and the states lean however they say. Thing is, the stock market game isn't florida voters who vote in florida for florida's delegates to the electoral college. In Ohio, McCain is up by 1% or 2%. In Florida, McCain is up by like 14%. That's how the states' voters are looking right now. Ohio is a tossup, even tho McCain is up by a tad. Margin of error.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Denny Crane @ Feb 24 2008, 10:29 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Rasmussen is polling the states, and the states' votes make up the electoral college. In Ohio, McCain is up by 1% or 2%. In Florida, McCain is up by like 14%. Rasmussen is doing their "leaning" type of data not based upon the state polls, but based upon their "stock market" game. In that, Obama is up and the states lean however they say. Thing is, the stock market game isn't florida voters who vote in florida for florida's delegates to the electoral college. In Ohio, McCain is up by 1% or 2%. In Florida, McCain is up by like 14%. That's how the states' voters are looking right now. Ohio is a tossup, even tho McCain is up by a tad. Margin of error.</div> In addition, Obama is beating McCain by an average of 5% in other polls not named Rasmussen.
Popular vote doesn't win the national election. Gore won it in 2000, but didn't win the electoral college. You aren't doing the math.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Denny Crane @ Feb 24 2008, 10:35 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Popular vote doesn't win the national election. Gore won it in 2000, but didn't win the electoral college. You aren't doing the math.</div> I think the 4.5% spread would amount to more than just the popular vote, and Gore did not win the popular vote by that margin. Your Rasmussen source didn't exactly back you up on the electoral college either.
Look at posts 22 and 23. It was YOU who was using the Rasmussen electoral prediction. I pointed out that Ohio isn't actually leaning Democrat, as McCain is ahead in the polls. At most, it's a tossup. I stand by what I wrote. It comes down to three states: PA, OH, and FLA, and the winner of 2 of those 3 wins the election. That's because I am counting the electoral votes and looking at the individual state polls. BTW, Obama has only a slight lead in Iowa. <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>Leans Democratic: Iowa (7), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Ohio (20), and Wisconsin (10)</div> <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats with a 284 to 229 lead in the Electoral College.</div> There are 535 electoral votes (one per senator, one per congressman) and another 5 or so for places like Guam and Puerto Rico. 271 votes are needed. 284+229 is not enough electoral votes, because they're not counting the tossups. Subtract OH 20 from the Dems and they have 264. And that IS how it would end up on election night if OH goes for McCain.
