Dumpy's Fantasy Baseball Bargains

In past seasons, I've touted some fantasy-baseball bargains. I think I have a pretty good record--I pimped Brandon Webb before he won the Cy Young and Nick Swisher before his breakout 35-HR season. I won't kid you, I've had some duds in there, too. But, because I'm willing to lay it on the line, here is my list of possible 2008 fantasy baseball breakout candidates. Some may only be average players at best--so consider your league size before you jump on their bandwagons--but these are the players that I'm most comfortable will outperform general expectations. I'll list them by position, in the order that I think they'll exceed expectations.

DH: Billy Butler.
C: Chris Snyder, John Buck.
1B: Adam LaRoche, Conor Jackson. Also, for some reason, I think Mike Jacobs will have his best year in the majors, but I'm convinced he'll be anything more than an average 1B.
2B: Rickie Weeks, Aaron Hill.
3B: Alex Gordon, Hank Blalock, Ryan Zimmerman
SS: Julio Lugo
OF: Austin Kearns, Andre Ethier, Nick Markakis, Josh Hamilton, Jason Kubel, Jeremy Hermida, Jeff Francoeur. I'll let everyone else pimp Lastings Milledge, BJ Upton, and Josh Hamilton.
SP: (in no particular order) Randy Wolf, Kevin Slowey, Zach Greinke, Dustin McGowan, Andy Sonnanstine, Chuck James, Manny Parra, Johnny Cueto, Carlos Villanueva, Matt Garza, Edinson Volquez, Andrew Miller, Ervin Santana, Brian Bannister, Henry Vanden Hurk, Ubaldo Jiminez, Mike Hampton, Boof Bonser, Brian Bannister, John Danks. A lot of crapshoots in there, but I think at least a third of these pitchers will seriously surprise people.

Let's see how I do this year.

 

Nick Markakis and Zimmerman will be great picks. I think Alex Gordon will be picked too early.

 

I wouldn't take Gordon too high--with a guy like that, you have to be careful not to overvalue them.

Last year, in my 14-team league, I targetted and drafted James Sheilds in one of the last few rounds (25?). The pitcher who has raised my interest the most in the same way as Shields did last year is Edinson Volquez of the Reds, with John Danks, Andy Sonnanstine, and Carlos Villanueva slightly behind. I'd recommend waiting until the end of your draft and seeing which of these guys are still available and taking them.

Of the vets I mentioned, I really like Randy Wolf--moving to San Diego; he'll have the same push as Chris Young when he went there from Texas. Also, I like Dustin McGowan a lot, he's not a late-round guy you can steal; he's more of a mid-round guy. I'd still recommend him if he is later than, say, the 60th or 70th SP taken in your draft.

 

Sheilds in the 25th? Nice.

 

You're confident Mike Hampton will stay healthy this year?

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (MyNetsForLife @ Mar 30 2008, 05:11 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Sheilds in the 25th? Nice.</div>

he had done nothing to suggest that he could break out like he did. I happened to discover him by looking at specific criteria that I think that predict young breakout pitchers--he wasn't touted anywhere, which is why I was able to get him so late

 

Let me add, btw, that Julio Lugo is on the list just because of an understanding of why he was so bad last year. Apparently he picked up a stomach parasite that sapped his strength for a number of months. I therefore expect him to return to his 2005-2007 levels. Whether he's worth drafting will depend on whether the rest of your league values him based on his career or based on his terrible 2007 season.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Charles @ Mar 30 2008, 05:17 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>You're confident Mike Hampton will stay healthy this year?</div>

no, I'm not; but I think he makes for a good late round pick in a large league. I had intended to watch him this spring, and he seemed to pitch pretty well. It wouldn't shock me to see him finish with an ERA around 3.80-4.00 in 120 innings, which is a good return for a 25th-round pick. If your league has just ten teams, and/or doesn't have a bench, I wouldn't touch him.

 

well, I finally had the draft for my long-standing 14-team league. Because of scheduling problems (we all meet in person for the draft, and we've got managers as far away from each other as California, Florida, Massachusetts, and Michigan) we had to hold our draft after the season started. Of the guys on my list, I came away with Markakis (round 3), Weeks (8), Kearns (14), Ethier (18), Kubel (20), Snyder (21), Sonnanstine (23), Chuck James (24), and Carlos Villanueva (25). Not a bad haul! Now we'll see if I'm right about these guys . . .

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Petey @ Apr 8 2008, 12:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Ian Kinsler or Aaron Hill?
Jason Giambi or Hawpe?

Willis, Arroyo worth nabbing?

-Petey</div>

I guess it depends on the price. I think Aaron Hill could put up numbers similar to Kinsler, but it is likely that Kinsler is more expensive. I like Hawpe a lot better than Giambi. There's both the injury and playing time factors at play there--I could see the Yankees resting Giambi once a week or more.

I like Arroyo. I went into spring training intending to track Willis, because I thought he could have a turnaround--Detroit's infield defense is much, much better than Florida's, and it's possible that he was trying to be too "fine" with his pitches last year. However, he has shown nothing so far. Arroyo, though, was great in 2007, and very good in the second half last year after a poor first half, for whatever reason. I almost took Arroyo; I wanted one of Arroyo, Wolf, and Westbrook (who I like equally) in the middle rounds of my draft, and waited until the last possible minute to grab Westbrook after Arroyo and right before Wolf went.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Petey @ Apr 8 2008, 02:42 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Dumpy @ Apr 8 2008, 01:13 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Petey @ Apr 8 2008, 12:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Ian Kinsler or Aaron Hill?
Jason Giambi or Hawpe?

Willis, Arroyo worth nabbing?

-Petey</div>

I guess it depends on the price. I think Aaron Hill could put up numbers similar to Kinsler, but it is likely that Kinsler is more expensive. I like Hawpe a lot better than Giambi. There's both the injury and playing time factors at play there--I could see the Yankees resting Giambi once a week or more.

I like Arroyo. I went into spring training intending to track Willis, because I thought he could have a turnaround--Detroit's infield defense is much, much better than Florida's, and it's possible that he was trying to be too "fine" with his pitches last year. However, he has shown nothing so far. Arroyo, though, was great in 2007, and very good in the second half last year after a poor first half, for whatever reason. I almost took Arroyo; I wanted one of Arroyo, Wolf, and Westbrook (who I like equally) in the middle rounds of my draft, and waited until the last possible minute to grab Westbrook after Arroyo and right before Wolf went.
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Thanks for the opinion.

I have Kinsler. Should I hold him to nab Hill who is on the wire, is my Q.

-Petey
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if you have a normal-sized league, there's absolutely no reason why Hill should be available. If you have a bench, I'd recommend cutting someone other than Kinsler to pick up Hill, and then at some point trading Kinsler to someone who is in desperate need of a 2B with decent production. I think Kinsler probably will have more market value; he's got a reputation as an "up-and-coming" young player and plays in a bandbox. I don't remember if I mentioned Hill in my first post in this thread, but I think he's a good player who will be pretty productive. He went way too late in my league, but it would have been hard to make room for him on my roster. If he gets off to a poor start, I may try to acquire him, though.

If you don't have a bench, then it truly shouldn't matter much.

 

You've got a great team. Your only real weakness on offense is Pierzynski. I'm not a fan of Beltre, and I think Encarnacion is just as good as he is, but there is always the question of playing time with him, especially given the reds' manager. Aaron Hill is a doubles machine, but I think Kinsler will steal more bases. I like your pitchers, too, although Jon Rauch's value will be short-lived. It's early in the season to make trades, but if you can convince someone to deal, you should definintely try to trade two of your players for a better player and a crappy player, and cut the crappy player for encarnacion or Hill.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Petey @ Apr 11 2008, 09:32 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Dumpy @ Apr 8 2008, 08:38 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>You've got a great team. Your only real weakness on offense is Pierzynski. I'm not a fan of Beltre, and I think Encarnacion is just as good as he is, but there is always the question of playing time with him, especially given the reds' manager. Aaron Hill is a doubles machine, but I think Kinsler will steal more bases. I like your pitchers, too, although Jon Rauch's value will be short-lived. It's early in the season to make trades, but if you can convince someone to deal, you should definintely try to trade two of your players for a better player and a crappy player, and cut the crappy player for encarnacion or Hill.</div>

Thanks Dumpy, been trying to pull off a trade, but with no luck.

I dumped Rauch and nabbed Hiroki Kuroda.

I still want to nab Ibanez, Huff, Hill and Edwin Encarnacion at some point.

-Petey
</div>

Let someone else try their luck with Huff. He is very streaky, and can go two months at a time without any production.

 

My team is in terrible shape. It is a 14-team league with some additional categories. We are only permitted to pick up free agents once every few weeks, but you have an 8-man bench to replace hurt guys. Lineup changes are made once a week.

I have Jimmy Rollins--who is killing me--and my backup infielder is Wigginton, who broke his thumb the first week, so I am down a player. I am getting poor performances out of Braun (who only qualifies as a LF in my league), Carlos Pena, Troy Glaus, Billingsley, Ian Snell, and Austin Kearns. Westbrook--who has been great--just went on the DL. Corpas could lose the closer gig.

But what is really killing me is that someone else stepped up and took Edinson Volquez, who you know I was specifically targetting in the late rounds. Totally killing me.