In a game where neither the Denver Nuggets nor the Toronto Raptors had a playmaking identity, the Nuggets trailed most of the way but made a few great defensive stops late and defeated the Raptors in Toronto 109-100. Raptor star PF Chris Bosh, back from knee problems that kept him out of 5 straight road games, all of which were losses for the Raptors, made too many assists and not enough scores. He was too unselfish. Denver playmaking was about as spread out among all players as much as you will ever see. If you try to beat the Nuggets while neither team has established playmakers, you are very likely to lose. The Nuggets love to use their huge talent bank in these kinds of games. Teams such as the Suns, the Rockets, and the Spurs would never be foolish enough to attempt to defeat the Nuggets without an offense with established playmakers. The Nuggets are the kings of scoring a lot of points against average and below average defenses while operating with no playmaking identity and with an almost totally unplanned offense. In other words, the Nuggets are the Kings of the local recreation center court. The Raptors also, who are one of the best NBA jump shooting teams, and also one of the best 3-point shooting teams, need their best two playmaking guards to make at least half their assists, but in this game, PG Juan Calderon and PG T.J. Ford combined for just 10 of the 27 assists that Toronto made. So with the Raptors you have a team that shoots well but doesn’t make plays well, a combination that almost makes your head spin. Oh wait, the Nuggets are another team like that, so no wonder my head spins a lot while I watch the games and report on the team. If you are keeping score, the Raptors are only the 10th best offense in the NBA adjusted for pace, while the Nuggets are the 11th best offense. Two peas in a pod, actually. If the Nuggets are scoring more than 105 points a game and they are about 3rd out of 30 teams in gross scoring, then why do I spend so much time complaining that the team lacks this, that, and the other thing offensively? Because the Nuggets’ offense is very easy for the best teams in general, and for especially the best defensive teams in particular, to shut down. So when you hear in the days ahead “No one wants to play the Nuggets in the playoffs, because this team is just plain dangerous,” don’t believe it. Teams like the Rockets, the Hornets, and the Lakers will be hoping to draw the Nuggets in the playoffs, because they know first hand how the Nuggets offense is built on a flimsy foundation, and can be severely throttled relatively easily with the extra motivation that comes from playing in the playoffs. Meanwhile, they don’t want to play the Warriors, who have a clear playmaking identity spearheaded by Baron Davis, and who demonstrated how dangerous such a well designed offense can be when they upset the Dallas Mavericks last year. Neither the Nuggets nor the Raptors turned it over much in this game. The Nuggets, who are turning it over much less now that Iverson is running the point more often and running isolation scoring attempts less often, made just 7 turnovers in this game, while the Raptors made 11. The game predictably started with the lineup that Karl has worshiped this year: Anthony Carter PG, Allen Iverson SG, Carmelo Anthony SF, Kenyon Martin PF, and Marcus Camby C. It has been rare for this starting lineup to be quick off the tip-off, and this game was no exception. The Raptors got off to a small but clear 15-10 lead half way through the 1st quarter. Since at least the start of 2008, the Nuggets have almost always looked clunky offensively and inept defensively in the early going, and it has often taken until J.R. Smith comes in before the juices start flowing and the offense shifts into high gear. The Nuggets made only 1 assist in the first 9 minutes of the game. The Nuggets looked downright sleepy during an 8-2 Raptors run late in the 1st, before Smith came in; it was 23-14 Raptors with about 3 minutes left in the 1st. J.R. Smith finally came in at this juncture, ready to start cutting into the early Nuggets deficit as he has done in many games before. With the score 35-18, Smith made his first three with less than a minute left in the 1st. Smith also drove to the hoop with a couple of seconds left on a fast break and was fouled and he made both free throws. Smith’s speed and intensity began to pick up the relatively sluggish and chronically unpredictable offense, and the uninspired defense, from the moment he came into the game. After Smith came in, the Nuggets stopped settling for jump shots too much and started cutting into the Toronto lead. After Smith went out late in the 2nd quarter, the Raptors started adding to their lead again. Although Smith was no where near as successful in the 2nd half as he was in the 1st, he put the Nuggets on the right track offensively to eventually win this game. Meanwhile, Anthony Carter played poorly, both on offense and to some extent on defense. There is only so much magic you can get out of a player who has never been regarded a starter in the NBA until George Karl decided that everyone else was wrong. I think I know another reason besides Smith not being in there why the Nuggets start badly almost every game. It’s because Carter is not a true starting PG in the NBA, and because Iverson uses the 1st quarter to feel everything out, including his team, the other team, and the referees, so that then he can decide how to divide his efforts between PG and SG the rest of the way. Iverson often looks strangely hesitant in the early going, which matches my theory. At the half, it was 54-46 Raptors, as they shot 57% and the Nuggets only 41% in the 1st half. By the end of the game though, the Nuggets would almost catch the Raptors in shooting %, and they ended up beating the Raptors at their own game, three-point shooting, as they made 11/22 threes while Toronto only managed to make 8/24. Iverson was an amazing 5/8 from beyond the arc, and Smith was 2/4. As the game went along, Kenyon Martin more and more put the Nuggets on the right track defensively. Martin was guarding Chris Bosh most of the time and his defending was outstanding. K-Mart’s shooting varies substantially from game to game, but overall it’s been outstanding this season as well. But the whole Nuggets squad came out in the 2nd half with defensive energy, while the Raptors were mostly standing around. The Nuggets spent the whole 3rd quarter gradually eliminating the Raptors lead. Carmelo Anthony started hitting midrange jumpers, Iverson started hitting fade aways and making layups off picks, and J.R. Smith was busy doing “little things” like chasing down loose balls and taking a charge. It was 73-71 after three quarters. Early in the 4th quarter, Iverson and the Nuggets in general started hitting a bunch of threes, which gave them an 85-80 lead with about 8 minutes to play. However, the Raptors scored the next 8, as the Nuggets overdid the three points shooting attempts. But Melo was still hitting, and with 5 1/2 minutes left, it was 89-88 Nuggets. Martin tied up Bosh with about 5 to play. Then Bosh was blocked by Martin, but committed his 5th foul by coming down on Bosh. An Jose Calderon three with 3:45 left made it 95-94 Raptors. J.R. Smith was then way off on an extremely long three attempt. Calderon then tried another three and missed, and Martin snagged the rebound. Then with about 3 minutes to go, Carmelo Anthony jabbed stepped and moved in on SF Jamario Moon and made a sweet short jumper; it was 96-95 Nuggets. But then SG Anthony Parker from the left corner swished a three, for 98-96 Raptors with 2:36 left. Then Parker fouled Iverson, who made both free throws, which tied the game. Then Moon tried a three and missed. Then Iverson made a cross court pass to Melo, who was fouled by Jamario Moon. Melo made both free throws, so it was 100-98 Nuggets with 1:50 to go. Late in the fourth quarter, it was all Nuggets, as Kenyon Martin led the almost total shut down of the easy to shut down Raptors offense. (See, it works the other way too sometimes.). The ultimate defensive highlight was when Kenyon Martin literally stole the ball away from Chris Bosh, who was dribbling too high on the baseline with 1:40 left. The Raptors would never recover from that. Iverson then passed to Melo in the left post, and Melo looked like he was going to shoot over Moon, but he changed his mind and fired back out to Iverson who was at the center of the three point arc. Iverson fired the dagger that killed the Raptors; it was 103-98 Nuggets with 1:17 left. The Raptors were still confused offensively. That’s right, they didn’t have a playmaking identity, you know this stuff now. So Kenyon Martin himself intercepted an almost aimless pass by Parker near the paint and ran off on a fast break the other way. He was fouled and made 2 free throws, for 105-98 Nuggets with a minute to play. The Nuggets also got possession, because a clear path violation was called. Moon knocked the ball away from Carmelo Anthony, leading to a breakaway dunk, but the Nuggets were still leading 105-100 with 45 seconds to play. Then the Nuggets used most of the shot clock, and the Raptors defense broke down enough for Melo to get open moving into the paint for a running jumper, which iced the game. The fancy dragons were all dead and the Nuggets’ playoff hopes were still alive. ALLEN IVERSON WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN: PART 3 Allen Ezail Iverson was born in Hampton, Virginia, on June 7, 1975 to a 15-year old single woman, Ann Iverson. His father, Allen Broughton, skipped out on the family and he and his sister Brandy, born 1979, were left in the care of their mother Ann. In 1991, Allen Iverson, Brandy and their mother welcomed a new addition to the family, Leisha, who was very ill, which added to the family bills. By the time Leisha was born, Iverson at the age of 16 was often responsible for taking care of his younger sisters, which was especially difficult with Leisha, who suffered frequent seizures. Mounting medical bills pushed the family further in debt. Iverson had an extremely poor childhood, one often without the basic necessities like electricity, heat or water. Iverson went to Bethel High in Hampton from 1990-1994. In Part 2, we looked closely at Iverson’s junior and senior years at this school. Now you know that while he was running the basketball and the football teams during those two years, and winning State Championships in both sports in the process, he was also teaming up with his Mom to take care of his two sisters, one of them with frequent seizures. The house that Iverson grew up in lay on top of the city’s sewer pipes. Whenever they burst, Allen’s floor would be coated with sewage. Iverson’s biological father remained in Connecticut where the family lived before Allen was born. He never played a role in his life, and he was in jail from time to time, including from a jail sentence for stabbing a former girlfriend. Shortly after Allen’s birth his maternal grandmother passed away. The family was continuously broke to one extent or another. Due to unpaid bills, the house was often without electricity and even sometimes water. Iverson once hinted that his Mother sometimes engaged in black market activities to earn badly needed money. It wasn’t just Ann, Allen, Brandy, and Leisha though; there was another member of the household. Ann’s boyfriend and Iverson’s de facto father, Michael Freeman, had been in and out of jail for most of his life. After a car accident made Freeman unemployed in 1991, a desperate for money Freeman was caught and convicted for drug possession with intent to distribute. Freeman never bought bling; he paid family bills with his black market income. Iverson has remained proud of Freeman through the years. "He never robbed nobody," said Iverson once. "He was just tryin’ to feed his family. It would kill him to come from jail and find out how his family was living. One time he came home and just sat down and cried." Did you ever wonder who the first person was who taught a young Allen Iverson basketball? To tell him that basketball was his best bet rather than football? To give him the confidence needed to get him to work hard and to excel at basketball? Was it a hot shot agent or well off basketball camp entrepreneur? Was it someone who later got a huge money book deal or movie deal? Was it a famous retired coach or former player? No, it was none of these. Both Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson come from serious ghettos, the kind where there is a truly large amount of violent crime and black market drug dealing. Because a serious ghetto is where Iverson comes from, it was a ghetto person who started Iverson’s basketball career. It was Michael Freeman, a felon but a striving and meaning well Iverson family benefactor in the time of need. Iverson’s mother enrolled him in a little league type basketball practice program, but the young Allen Iverson was more of a football fan. It was Michael Freeman who pushed Iverson away from football and to basketball. On Valentines Day 1993, Iverson was connected with a fracas at the Spare Times Bowling Center in the city of Hampton, Virginia. He had a few weeks earlier finished leading the Bethel High football team to the State Championship and he was in the process of leading the basketball squad to the State Championship. Everyone knew Iverson, some were jealous, and a few wanted to ruin the reputation of the young sports hero who came from the wrong neighborhood, the neighborhood where you can buy illegal drugs, and the neighborhood where no sane person would walk down the street at night. I guess they thought there was something unjust about someone who came from such a terrible neighborhood being such a school hero. Surely someone from a good neighborhood should be the hero, right? Or so they thought. So Iverson and a group of his black teammates went to the bowling ally to unwind from basketball, and to celebrate the recent historical football win. They were loud and were asked to quiet down several times. Eventually, Iverson’s group and another group of white youths started shouting at each other. Not long into the shouting, a big fight erupted, pitting the black youths against the white youths. There has never been agreement about many of the specifics of the fight, especially specifics on what role if any Allen Iverson played. At one extreme, the prosecutors claimed that Iverson was fully involved and that he threw a chair at a girl and another chair at an employee. At the other extreme, others including Iverson claim Iverson was not involved at all. PROSECUTOR’S ACCOUNT Prosecutors ironically used a Civil War-era statute designed to protect blacks from lynchings to charge a group of black teens with mob violence. Seventeen-year-old Iverson was tried as an adult, convicted of “maiming by mob,” and sentenced to five years for throwing a chair at a girl. The judge, who was friends with one of the victim’s family, first denied them bail and then sentenced all four to 5 years in prison Witnesses unaligned with either of the two groups testified that Iverson threw the chair at the girl. But at least according to prosecutors, no one heard Allen Iverson being called a ******. Kristi Alligood, one of the witnesses, testified: "During a break in the fight, the girl went up to one of the black guys and said ‘Why do you have to make this racial?’ He [Iverson] just pressed two fingers against her face and pushed her away." A bowling center employee testified that Iverson used a different chair to hit him in the head as well. The prosecutor, a life-long NAACP member, pointed out that none of the blacks in the fight wanted to pursue charges, and that there were several black witnesses joining white witnesses identifying Iverson as the main culprit. IVERSON AND HIS SUPPORTERS ACCOUNT Iverson and his supporters maintain his innocence to this day. They claim that he left the alley as soon as the trouble began. Evidence against Iverson at trial was limited to witness statements only. Iverson could not be seen on an amateur video tape of the incident, and he claims he left the alley as soon as the trouble began. "For me to be in a bowling alley where everybody in the whole place know who I am and me be crackin’ people upside the head with chairs and think nothin’ gonna happen?" asked Iverson not long after the incident. "That’s crazy! And what kind of a man would I be to hit a girl in the head with a damn chair? I wish at least they’d said I hit some damn man." Allen’s supporters were enraged that only four people were charged after the fight, all of them black. They were upset with the media’s allegedly biased coverage of the incident. And they claim the whole thing started when one of the white boys called Iverson a "******". "It’s strange enough that police waded through a huge mob of fighting people and came out with only blacks, and the one black that everybody knew," said Golden Frinks, crisis coordinator for the National Association for Advancement of Colored People. "But people thought they’d get a slap on the wrist and that would be the end of it." But the little fight in the bowling ally resulted in large 5-year prison sentences. I remember at the time cracking jokes to myself about how Virginia is the kind of state where you might get a year in the slammer for littering, or two years for allowing your dog to take a dump in a park, or three years for driving with a suspended registration, but with a valid license and insurance. You get the idea; Virginia was a state you wouldn’t want to live in if you thought there was even a 1 in 100 chance that you would make a mistake that would constitute breaking a law. Live anywhere but Virginia. Virginia is not for lovers; it’s for jailers. But this strange story gets stranger. Virginia’s first black Governor, Doug Wilder, granted Iverson a conditional release from the long sentence after four months behind bars because he became convinced that Iverson had been treated unfairly. While granting clemency, Wilder told Iverson to stay off the courts and to concentrate on receiving his high school diploma. Some time after this clemency nullified the sentence, the conviction itself was overturned on appeal. Therefore, what happened at the Spare Times Bowling Center in Hampton Virginia on Valentine’s Day 1993 remains both factually and legally uncertain to this day. Iverson was supposed to have been a Kentucky Wildcat, but due to his incarceration, Iverson missed out on a scholarship to Kentucky University. He studied while in jail, and after 5 months behind bars, Iverson was set free. In the meantime, Ann Iverson went to Georgetown University to convince Coach John Thompson to be her son's guardian, to be both his coach and a father figure. Once Thompson saw Iverson's talent, he accepted, and Iverson was offered a full scholarship to Georgetown University, which of course Iverson accepted. But no matter what happened after the Valentine’s Day incident, Iverson was now destined to be trapped permanently in a no-man’s land between fully integrated into and accepted by society at large, and being an untouchable outcast. If you are a convicted felon, your pro sports career is pretty much over whether or not it has ever gotten underway. Iverson was a convicted felon, but then he was not one. So he was still technically qualified to become a basketball star, but he would never be fully accepted by basketball fans, including fans of his own teams. Fans in Philadelphia often yelled out nasty slurs when Iverson was near the sideline close to them. For example, they would yell out “Get a haircut,” or “How are the crack sales going?” Do not forget these details of what happened when Allen Iverson was young. We will return to these things in later parts. For example, this series will explain how Iverson’s upbringing in general and the 1993 Valentine’s Day incident and what resulted from it in particular helped start a fire in 1997 that resulted in Iverson’s course through the NBA to be substantially different from what should have and could have been. The Denver Nuggets, their fans, and to some extent Allen Iverson himself are all still damaged to this day from what the 1993 Valentine’s Day incident played a huge role in causing. In future parts, we will explore the chain of events that began with that stupid incident in the bowling center in Hampton, Virginia and that end with the present day Nuggets playing an offense that is clearly inferior to those of the top teams of the West. PROJECTIONS Nuggets 1 Current odds, to the nearest 5%, of the Nuggets making the playoffs: 45% Nuggets 1 Current odds, to the nearest 5%, that the Nuggets and their suffering fans will be stuck with George Karl for next season: 80% The current odds of the Nuggets making the playoffs, according to Hollinger at ESPN’s excellent team analysis system, are 53%. However, at the same time the Nuggets are projected to most likely be the 9th seed in the Western Conference, and there is no 9th playoff seed. By far the main way the Nuggets can make the playoffs is by beating out the Golden State Warriors for the 8th and final seed in the West. So it seems right now that the Warriors and the Nuggets will be battling it out for the last playoff spot in the West. Both of them are considered likely to make the playoffs in statistical terms, but most likely one of them will fail to make the playoffs. Nuggets 1 agrees with Hollinger’s system, which is saying that the Warriors are favored over the Nuggets to get the 8th spot. The Hollinger odds don’t take into account that Nene is not going to be available in top form for the Nuggets for the stretch run. Also, there may not be enough time for Atkins to get back to full speed, especially since George Karl is notorious for taking forever to work a player he is not sold on back into the rotation following an injury. So it’s still unknown whether Atkins is ready to rescue the Nuggets from not making the playoffs, and whether Karl will give him enough minutes if he is ready. If the Hollinger system adjusted for the Atkins and the Nene situations, it would show a somewhat lower percentage chance than 53% for the Nuggets to make the playoffs, probably about 10% lower. In summary, the Lakers, the Rockets, the Hornets, the Spurs, and the Jazz are currently considered locks to make the playoffs, and the Suns are virtual locks. Dirk Nowitzki was injured during Sunday action and this shocking development will endanger the Mavericks playoff hopes, how much so will depend on the details of the injury, especially the amount of time that Nowitzki will be unavailable. The Warriors are favored over the Nuggets for the final, 8th spot. The Rockets have become total locks now, despite the loss of Yao Ming for the season, thanks to their 22-game winning streak. The Suns are still in some trouble, due to their poor trade, which was Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks for Shaquille O’Neal, but they are in less trouble after their key early March wins at home over the Spurs and the Warriors. PLAYOFF TEAMS PROJECTED FINAL RECORDS-HOLLINGER-ESPN 1. Lakers 58-24 2. Rockets 55-27 3. Hornets 55-27 4. Jazz 54-28 5. Suns 54-28 6. Spurs 53-29 7. Mavericks 52-30 8. Warriors 50-32 NON-PLAYOFF TEAMS PROJECTED FINAL RECORDS-HOLLINGER-ESPN 9. Nuggets 50-32 The Warriors are now 1 1/2 games ahead of the Nuggets for the last playoff spot. Golden State has a slightly more difficult schedule than the Nuggets do the rest of the way, making this race extremely close and too close to call. The Nuggets and Warriors have each won one game in the head to head series so far and there are two games left. Now that the Nuggets are 1 1/2 games behind the Warriors, the two remaining Nuggets-Warriors games are more important than ever. If the Warriors win both games, the Nuggets are very likely out of the playoffs. If each team wins one game, the Warriors remain slightly more likely to make the playoffs than do the Nuggets. If the Nuggets win both games, then the Nuggets are a little more likely than the Warriors to get the last spot. The Nuggets-Warriors games are on Saturday, March 29 in Denver and on Thursday, April 10 in Oakland. Neither the Warriors nor the Nuggets will be playing on back to back nights in either of those games. WARRIORS REMAINING SCHEDULE, All times, EDT Tue, Apr 1 @ San Antonio 8:30 PM Wed, Apr 2 @ Dallas 9:30 PM Fri, Apr 4 @ Memphis 8:00 PM Sun, Apr 6 @ New Orleans 7:00 PM Tue, Apr 8 Sacramento 10:30 PM Thu, Apr 10 Denver 8:00 PM Sat, Apr 12 LA Clippers 10:30 PM Mon, Apr 14 @ Phoenix 10:00 PM Wed, Apr 16 Seattle 10:30 PM NUGGETS REMAINING SCHEDULE, All times EDT Mon, Mar 31 @ Phoenix 10:00 PM Tue, Apr 1 Phoenix 9:00 PM Sat, Apr 5 Sacramento 9:00 PM Sun, Apr 6 @ Seattle 9:00 PM Tue, Apr 8 @ LA Clippers 10:30 PM Thu, Apr 10 @ Golden State 8:00 PM Sat, Apr 12 @ Utah 9:00 PM Sun, Apr 13 Houston 9:00 PM Wed, Apr 16 Memphis 9:00 PM At this point the odds for whether the Nuggets will make the playoffs are still close to 50%, creating the maximum possible drama. It is going to be a very close call. We think that the Warriors will finish with either 49 or 50 wins. The Nuggets would need to finish 8-4 to reach 50 wins. This is realistically the minimum they must do to have a decent chance of making the playoffs. 7-5 will probably not be good enough and 6-6 will definitely not be good enough. To be almost guaranteed a playoff spot, the Nuggets must go 9-3 in their last 12 games. If you win a division you get into the playoffs regardless of how poor your record is. For the Nuggets, winning the Northwest Division is extremely unlikely at this point; the odds on that are at 8%. The odds that the Utah Jazz will win the Northwest are 92% right now. The Nuggets would have to beat the Jazz in their remaining game against them and they would also have to hope that the Jazz stumble down the stretch. NUGGETS INJURY REPORT FOR PLAYERS WHO PLAYED IN THIS GAME Allen Iverson: He suffered a non-displaced fracture on the end of his right ring finger vs. San Antonio on 3/7. He remains probable for upcoming games. PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE NUGGETS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE Nene: He underwent successful surgery to remove a testicular tumor on Jan. 14. A timeline for his return is still unknown. He has now missed 36 straight games. He is out until at least April, but could easily be out for the entire rest of the season. CBS Sportsline says Nene is most likely out for the rest of the season. RAPTORS PLAYERS WHO WERE NOT AVAILABLE Jorge Garbajosa: Ankle and leg injury; out for the season. ALERT STATUS PROBLEMS As of March 24, 2008 The Nuggets are under a GREY ALERT, on account of the following problems. NUGGETS INJURIES, ILLNESSES, SUSPENSIONS, AND PERSONAL LEAVES 1. Nene illness 14 points SEVERE AND UNEXPECTED CRUCIAL PLAYER SLUMPS None. BAD OR INADEQUATE COACHING NOTICE: THIS SECTION NEW AND IMPROVED as of March 19, 2008 EXTREME PLAYING TIME DECISIONS CONSTITUTING AN ERROR At any given time, Karl may be doing one or more of the following: 1. He may be imposing a draconian penalty by completely benching a player who should not be benched unless the Nuggets want to shoot themselves in the foot or the head. 2. He may be severely under playing a player, either due to an excessive penalty for some mistake the player has made, a miscalculation of the benefits and costs of that player, or due to subjective factors up to and including extreme dislike of a player and a desire to make sure that the player is removed from the team in the off-season. 3. He may be over playing and over relying on one or more very experienced and talented veterans. At the same time, he will be approximately the most stingy Coach in the League with respect to playing time allocated to non-starters. The new system we will use will employ the ranges of playing time minutes that are considered reasonable for the Nuggets. These are plenty large enough ranges to allow for plenty of coaching discretion, but if the playing time is outside of these ranges, it is clearly a coaching error: Allen Iverson: 32-42 Carmelo Anthony: 32-42 Marcus Camby: 28-38 Kenyon Martin: 28-38 J.R. Smith: 22-34 Linas Kleiza: 16-28 Eduardo Najera: 16-24 Chucky Atkins: 14-22 Anthony Carter: 12-20 Yakhouba Diawara: 0-16 Taurean Green: 0-10 Steven Hunter: 0-10 Playing times lower than the minimum or higher than the maximum are coaching errors, and are charged at the rate of 1 alert system point for each 2 minutes of error. If a player is injured or sick to any extent, then this rule does not apply. Nor will the rule apply in games in which there is garbage time, except in the case of players who are playing well below their minimum minutes on a heavily repeated basis. EXTREME PLAYING TIMES CONSTITUTING COACHING ERROR FOR THIS GAME: Chucky Atkins: Underplayed, 4 points Linas Kleiza: Underplayed, 2 points Anthony Carter: Overplayed, 1 point Allen Iverson: Overplayed, 1 point Marcus Camby: Overplayed, 1 point This toll is a moderate for Karl 9 points; it can get much worse than this, up to about 35 alert points. 4. The Nuggets have extreme offensive inconsistency and an excessive number of turnovers because they have neither a system nor even a good partial system on offense. They over rely on fast pace and on isolation plays, especially isolation plays by Anthony and Iverson. The damage caused by this could be up to 20 points, except that Iverson’s intelligence in recognizing different situations in different games, and responding appropriately, usually reduces the damage. But Iverson does not control everything of course, and the lack of any real consistency in how the offense is run leads to damaging problems that can appear at any time. But these problems are much more likely to appear just when the Nuggets can least afford them, when they are playing one of the best teams in the NBA. At one time earlier this season, Iverson and Carter were marginalizing Carmelo Anthony to some extent and Anthony, one of the top two scorers on the team, was not getting the ball enough. That problem went away when Anthony ramped up his rebounding. But the problem has shown signs of coming back again lately. If that problem appears when the Nuggets are playing an elite team, the Nuggets’ chances of winning the game go down substantially. The problem recently appeared in the March 18 Pistons game, and it helped to cause the Nuggets to lose. Another big problem has developed due to a combination of the unstructured offense and the Karl lineup, and it is not going to go away anytime soon. That would be the double point guard problem. The Nuggets don’t know in advance who is going to be the main playmaker in the game: Iverson, Carter, Atkins, or some combination. More importantly, it is foolish to have two point guards in the game for more than a small number of minutes. If Iverson has decided to run the point, as he always does to one extent or another, he counts as a point guard whether he is labeled one by the coaching staff or not. In general, and as always in the Karl era, the Nuggets lack enough tried and tested offensive plays that they can run game after game, perfecting them as they go, and having everyone automatically on the same page for those plays. True, they have plays they commonly run on the fly, but the players obviously don’t know about them in advance; they happen randomly. The offense is pretty much an unscripted, recreation department pick-up game style of offense. How good of a defense you have is determined more by effort and skill than by strategy. For defense, strategy and tactics are less important than on offense. But they are still important, especially in a close game versus a good team. One thing that determines how well a team can defend is whether it has matched up the best and most appropriate players to guard the various offensive threats of the other team. On defense, the main strategic decision is whether you are playing zone or man to man defense. The correct choice usually will vary during each game. The decision is frequently made on a gut feeling of the coach and/or the defensive floor leader as to which is better at a particular point in the game, and with a particular opposing lineup on the court. But despite the fact that strategy and tactics are relatively important, the most important things with respect to defending is overall effort, hustle, anticipation of where the play is going, skill in avoiding unnecessary fouls, and ability to rotate off screens and picks. This games’ toll due to the lack of an adequate number of offensive plays and patterns: 6 INTENSITY, HUSTLE, AND HEART The Nugget’s intensity, hustle and heart are lacking: 2 Points. TOTAL ALERT PROBLEM POINTS: 31, which constitutes GREY ALERT. GREY ALERT (30-44): There are relatively minor problems leading to a small threat against the success of the entire season. It is still possible to beat quality teams, but it will be more unusual to beat a quality team, because about 1/4 of what would have been wins against good teams will now be losses. There should be no impact with respect to medium and poor teams. IMPORTANT NOTE ABOUT ALERT STATUS The description of the alert status the Nuggets are in is a worst case scenario one; it assumes that the other team is in GREEN or NO alert. All teams, of course, have an alert status, and the key thing that can swing games is not so much the actual status of the two teams, but the difference in the two statuses. The difference in the alert status is a third outside factor that impacts a game, joining home court advantage and extra rest advantage, if any. We use 15 alert status points as constituting one unit of difference. OBSERVATIONS ON NUGGETS STATUS The toll from players playing above the reasonable maximum or below the reasonable minimum was relatively light. J.R. Smith played so well Friday night in New Jersey and was playing so well in this game also that it was not possible for Karl to short his minutes like he usually does. For one thing, he would have been looked at as being insane by the assistant coaches had he done that in this game. The general offensive problem ticked up a little in importance, assists were sparse and the team dangerously lacked an offensive identity. But the Raptors lacked one also, as PF Chris Bosh made too many assists for the overall good of the team. Atkins has been removed from the unusual player slump designation. The best news of the month for the Nuggets is that Atkins has, in effect, finally arrived in Denver. This might give the Nuggets just enough 3-point shooting firepower to keep up with the Warriors in the race for the final playoff spot, as long as Atkins gets playing time. The Nuggets have been unable to issue any prediction about when or whether Nene is going to return to the court. There was a rumor recently that he was going to return by mid-March, but that never happened. CBS Sportsline is saying that, most likely, Nene will not return to the court at all this season, including for the playoffs. However, since all other injuries are history, and since J.R. Smith has played so well that he is neither benched nor severely shortchanged of minutes these days, the Nuggets might be able to stay in the NO alert to GREY alert range, avoiding being disadvantaged to all but the lucky and perfectly managed elite teams. The mid January losses to the Bobcats and the Hawks, and the close calls at home against the Wolves and the Hawks in January, in games that should have and probably would have been relatively easy wins had the alert status been green, grey, or even yellow, illustrate the usefulness and accuracy of the alert system. When you reach ORANGE ALERT and especially RED ALERT, you start losing a substantial number of games that you would normally win. It’s that simple, and there is little anyone can do OUTSIDE FACTORS Home Court Advantage: 4 Points Extra Rest Advantage, if any: 4 Points Lower Alert Level: 1 Point for each 4 Points of lesser alert level Nothing to Play for due to Circumstances: As circumstances warrant. IMPACT OF OUTSIDE FACTORS, INCLUDING ALERT STATUS, ON THIS GAME The Raptors had just 1 relatively unimportant player unavailable, and they have last year’s Coach of the Year, so it is believed that their alert status was high NO Alert or low GREEN alert. The Raptors were therefore about 1 alert level or 15 points better off than the Nuggets, which constitutes about a 4-point advantage. The Raptors were home, giving them another 4-point edge or so. Neither team was playing on back to back nights. The Raptors were favored by about 8 points due to outside factors. The Nuggets won the game by 9, and we can confidently say that the Nuggets were playing so well that it would have been a full scale rout were it not for the outside factors. RESERVE WATCH Number of Players Who Played at Least 6 Minutes: Nuggets 9 Raptors 9 Number of Players Who Played at Least 10 Minutes: Nuggets 8 Raptors 8 Nuggets Non-Starters Points: 20 Raptors Non-Starters Points: 21 Nuggets Non-Starters Rebounds: 9 Raptors Non-Starters Rebounds: 3 Nuggets Non-Starters Assists: 8 Raptors Non-Starters Assists: 7 THE NON-STARTERS IN THIS GAME There was no garbage time. Both coaches were relatively light on using non-starters in this game. Both Coaches played 8 players for 10 minutes or more, and 9 players for 6 minutes or more. It is very unusual for Karl to play 9 players for 10 or more minutes. That he did so for several games in a row recently seems too good to be true now. In this game, Karl partly failed to meet his responsibility to see if Chucky Atkins can be readied for the last few games and the playoffs. Anthony Carter took over the PG position for the bulk of the season when Chucky Atkins went out for 2 months with hernia surgery and when Karl refused to name Iverson as the official point guard. Atkins was poor in limited games before he went out. Carter has been better than expected, but apparently even Karl agrees with most fans that Atkins will be eaten alive if the Nuggets make the playoffs. So Atkins, who has far more experience, including playoff experience, may be the Nuggets’ only hope at the position in the playoffs and in the stretch run to make the playoffs for that matter. So Karl has to give Atkins playing time in a last chance desperate bid to get Atkins up to speed. But since Atkins is inconsistent so far, Atkins minutes have to be limited, and so Carter still has to play a lot of minutes also. The Raptors’ non-starters won a 1-point victory over the Nuggets’ non-starters 21-20. The Nuggets’ non-starters heavily out rebounded the Raptors’ non-starters 9-3. Although the Nuggets lacked playmaking identity, so did Toronto, and at least the Nuggets’ non-starters had a very unusually large number of assists, and they 1 more assist than did the Raptors’ non-starters. STARTERS Points: Nuggets 89 Raptors 79 Rebounds: Raptors 38 Nuggets 32 Assists: Raptors 20 Nuggets 13 The Nuggets starting five beat the Raptors starters 89-79. But the Raptors’ starting five out rebounded the Nuggets starters 38-32 and they were ahead of the Nuggets starters in playmaking by 20-13. I hope to develop the reserve watch feature further in the future, because I want to try to expand what I already have in terms of a game coaching evaluation system. But the complications involved explain why there are no formal statistics anywhere on the internet on the subject of how much non-starters contribute to different teams, and also why coaches are not compared statistically the way players are. There are a lot of variables that come into the use of reserves that interfere with the objective of judging their use. Statisticians call this “statistical noise,” and if you have a substantial amount of it, then what you are trying to do with your statistics becomes very difficult or next to impossible. GEORGE KARL CONFIDENCE IN HIS TEAM RATING (Scale of 0 to 10) 3: He's hiding under his seat on the sidelines PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED You can tell how well every player played at a glance. Of the advanced statistics I have seen on the internet, this one seems to have the best balance between offense and defense. While some are biased in favor of offensive players, such as the efficiency measure at the NBA site, many other advanced statistics are biased in favor of good defenders, and do not reflect the heavy importance of offense in basketball. Here is the formula for the ESPN rating of a player, which I think is a very good balance between offense and defense: Points + Rebounds + 1.4*Assists + Steals + 1.4*Blocks - .7*Turnovers + # of Field Goals Made +1/2*# of 3-pointers Made - .8*# of Missed Field Goals - .8*# of Missed Free Throws + .25 *# of Free Throws Made All players on each team who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The number after “game,” is how well the player did in this game, whereas the number after “season” is that player’s overall average for the entire season. NUGGETS-RAPTORS PLAYER RATINGS Ratings of 50+ indicate superstar power performers. Ratings of 40-49 indicate star power performers Ratings of 30-39 indicate power performers. Ratings of 20-29 indicate key role player performers. Ratings of 10-19 indicate ordinary role player performers. Ratings of 0-9 indicate unimportant players NUGGETS PLAYER RATINGS Allen Iverson: Game 53.8 Season 41.4 Carmelo Anthony: Game 47.2 Season 39.2 Kenyon Martin: Game 26.3 Season 23.3 Marcus Camby: Game 21.4 Season 32.6 J.R. Smith: Game 20.7 Season 17.2 Anthony Carter: Game 10.9 Season 20.0 Eduardo Najera: Game 10.1 Season 13.2 Linas Kleiza: Game 8.9 Season 18.2 Chucky Atkins: Game 0.6 Season 8.9 Nene: Did Not Play-Illness Chucky Atkins: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision Yakhouba Diawara: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision Taurean Green: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision Steven Hunter: Did Not Play-Coach’s Decision RAPTORS PLAYER RATINGS Chris Bosh: Game 38.7 Season 37.4 Jamario Moon: Game 37.2 Season 19.6 Jose Calderon: Game 33.0 Season 29.2 Anthony Parker: Game 23.3 Season 21.9 Andrea Bargnani: Game 22.4 Season 15.8 T.J. Ford: Game 20.5 Season 22.3 Rasho Nesterovic: Game 16.3 Season 14.0 Jason Kapono: Game 0.9 Season 11.3 Carlos Delfino: Game 0.6 Season 16.4 NOTE 1: these stats do not correct for the big differences in playing times. Players with small minutes would get a higher rating if they had more minutes. NOTE 2: This performance measure does NOT include the quality and quantity of each player’s defending, including the number of shots that the player prevented from going in the basket. The best Nuggets defenders, which are the ones who consistently make the extra effort and have the strength and defensive talent to make that effort pay off, are Camby, Martin, Nene, Najera, and Diawara. OBSERVATIONS ON THE PLAYER RATINGS: The most productive player on the court was Allen Iverson for the Nuggets, who was a superstar power performer. Carmelo Anthony was just behind the Answer and he was a star power performer for the Nuggets. The Nuggets had no ordinary power performers, while the Raptors had 3 of those: Chris Bosh, Jamario Moon, and Jose Calderon. In sum, among the 5 players who were power performers or better, the Raptors had 3 and the Nuggets had 2. But Iverson and Anthony were so extremely productive that combined together they practically equaled the combined production of Bosh, Moon, and Calderon. For the Nuggets, the two most productive players ordinarily were not only the most productive in this game, but they were above their already sky high averages. Iverson was about 30% above normal to go into the stratosphere and Anthony was about 20% better than normal. Key role player Kenyon Martin was about 1/10 better than normal and he made an incredible takeaway steal against Chris Bosh with very little time left in the game to help ice the game in favor of Denver. J.R. Smith was about 1/5 more productive than usual with moderate minutes. But these four, Iverson, Anthony, Smith, and Martin, were the only 4 Nuggets who were more productive than usual in this game. 5 others were less productive than usual to one extent or another. Power performer on the season Marcus Camby was only a little more than 60% as productive as usual. Ordinary role player Eduardo Najera was only about 75% as productive as usual. Two other role players, Anthony Carter and Linas Kleiza, were way below normal; Carter was only about 55% as productive as usual and Kleiza was half as productive as usual. In very limited minutes, Atkins was grossly less productive than normal although a normal has not really been established for him due to an extremely long injury absence. Fortunately for the Nuggets, Iverson, Anthony, Martin and Smith stepped up enough to offset the serious down games of 5 other Nuggets. By far the biggest upside for the Raptors was borderline key role player SF Jamario Moon, who by doubling his normal production became a power performer. The Raptors’ best player, high end power performer PF Chris Bosh, was almost exactly normal. PG Jose Calderon, a borderline power performer, was about 1/10 more productive than usual, making him a definite power performer in this game. C Bargnani was about 40% more productive than usual, which made him a key role player for this game.. Key role player SG Parker was about 1/10 better than normal, while plain role player C Nesterovic was about 1/5 better than normal, Key role player PG T.J. Ford was slightly below normal. Lower level role players SF Kapono and SG Delfino were almost completely unproductive, which went a long way to causing the Raptors to lose this game. The Raptors had 6 important players above normal and only 1 important player slightly below normal. But they got almost nothing from either Kapono or Delfino, which hurt them a lot. The Nuggets had 4 players above normal while the Raptors had 6. The Nuggets had 5 players below normal while the Raptors had only 2. But Iverson, Anthony, Martin, and Smith did some huge stepping up in this game to win it for the Nuggets. REAL PLAYER RATINGS EXPLAINED The Real Player Rating reflects reality better than the gross player rating, since it washes out differences in playing times among the players. The straight up player rankings are obviously heavily affected by how many playing minutes the various players get. With many teams, you can rely on the coach to give his various players roughly the playing time that makes the most sense for his team. Unfortunately, some coaches bring other factors besides actual performance into their rotation decisions. Therefore, it makes good sense to introduce a new and extremely important statistic that Nuggets 1 calls the Real per Minute Player Rating. As the name implies, this is the gross ESPN player rating divided by the number of minutes. The statistic is called Real Player Rating for short. This statistic allows anyone to see whether or not players who play only a small number of minutes are doing better than their low gross rating will indicate. You can spot diamond in the rough players who are not getting all the respect and playing time due to them. At the same time, it will allow anyone to see whether players with a lot of minutes are playing worse than, as well as, or better than their gross rating shows. In summary, the Real Player Rating allows the reader, at a glance, to see exactly how well each player is doing without regard to playing time, which is subject to coaching error and subjective and less important factors such as a player's personality. The Real Player Rating provides the real truth-pure knowledge not available anywhere else. SCALE FOR THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS 1.80 More Amazing Happens, but only certain players can ever fly this high 1.60 1.80 Superstar Plus-Above Normal Even For Michael Jordan 1.40 1.60 Superstar Performance-A Michael Jordan Type Game 1.20 1.40 Star Plus-Spectacular Performance 1.05 1.20 Star Performance 0.90 1.05 Outstanding Game 0.80 0.90 Very Good Game 0.70 0.80 Good Game 0.60 0.70 Mediocre Game 0.50 0.60 Poor Game 0.40 0.50 Very Poor Game 0.25 0.40 Extremely Poor-Near Disaster Less 0.25 Total Disaster NUGGETS-RAPTORS REAL PLAYER RATINGS All players who played 5 minutes or more are included. Any player who played only 5-9 minutes is noted. 1. Carmelo Anthony, Den 1.311 2. T.J. Ford, Tor 1.281 3. Allen Iverson, Den 1.251 4. Jose Calderon, Tor 1.031 5. Chris Bosh, Tor 0.921 6. Jamario Moon, Tor 0.907 7. J.R. Smith, Den 0.863 8. Andrea Bargnani, Tor 0.862 9. Kenyon Martin, Den 0.692 10. Linas Kleiza, Den 0.685 11. Rasho Nesterovic, Tor 0.652 12. Anthony Parker, Tor 0.630 13. Eduardo Najera, Den 0.561 14. Marcus Camby, Den 0.549 15. Anthony Carter, Den 0.495 16. Jason Kapono, Tor 0.069 17. Chucky Atkins, Den 0.086…Atkins played only 7 minutes. 18. Carlos Delfino, Tor 0.086…Delfino played only 7 minutes. OBSERVATIONS ON THE REAL PLAYER RATINGS The best player on the court was Carmelo Anthony and he was a star-plus. There were two other star-plus players, T.J. Ford for the Raptors and Allen Iverson for the Nuggets. Since there were no ordinary stars, there were those 3 players who were stars or better, one Raptor and two Nuggets. The Raptors had 3 outstanding players, Calderon, Bosh, and Moon, while the Nuggets had none. Smith was very good for the Nuggets and Bargnani was very good for the Raptors. Martin and Kleiza were mediocre for the Nuggets not counting their made you miss type defending. Nesterovic and Parker were mediocre for the Raptors. Najera and Camby were poor for the Nuggets not counting their made you miss type defending. Carter was very poor for the Nuggets. There were 3 total disasters. Kapono for the Raptors was a total disaster in limited minutes. Delfino for the Raptors was a total disaster in very limited minutes. Atkins for the Nuggets was a total disaster in very limited minutes. Among the 10 players who were mediocre or worse, the Nuggets had 6 and the Raptors 4. But with Iverson, Anthony, Martin, and Smith working their magic, the Nuggets snatched victory from the jaws of likely defeat. NUGGET’S PLUS—MINUS This tells you how the score changed while a player was on the court. All Nuggets who played at least 10 minutes are shown J.R. Smith: +12 Linas Kleiza: +12 Eduardo Najera: +12 Marcus Camby: +9 Allen Iverson: +6 Carmelo Anthony: -1 Anthony Carter: -1 Kenyon Martin: -5 NUGGETS MADE WHAT? All Nuggets who played at least 5 minutes are shown. The order is from lowest to highest in real player rating. Turnovers: NBA Average: 14, Nuggets’ Total 7, Team 0, Anthony 3, Atkins 0, Camby 0, Carter 0, Iverson 4, Kleiza 0, Martin 0, Najera 0, Smith 0 Personal Fouls: NBA Average: 21, Nuggets’ Total 20, Anthony 4, Atkins 0, Camby 3, Carter 1, Iverson 3, Kleiza 2, Martin 5, Najera 1, Smith 1 Chucky Atkins played 7 minutes and was 0/1 for 0 points, and he made 1 assist. Anthony Carter played 22 minutes and was 2/5 and 1/2 on 3’s for 5 points, and he made 2 assists, 2 rebounds, and 1 steal. Marcus Camby played 39 minutes and was 1/4 and 3/4 from the line for 5 points, and he made 15 rebounds, 1 block, and 1 assist. Eduardo Najera played 18 minutes and was 1/3 and 1/3 on 3’s for 3 points, and he made 3 assists and 3 rebounds. Linas Kleiza played 13 minutes and was 1/4 and 1/4 on 3’s for 3 points, and he made 4 rebounds and 2 assists. Kenyon Martin played 38 minutes and he was 4/8 and 2/2 from the line for 10 points, and he made 6 rebounds, 3 blocks, 2 steals, and 2 assists. J.R. Smith played 24 minutes and was 5/12, 2/4 on 3’s, and 2/2 from the line for 14 points, and he made 2 assists, 2 rebounds, and 1 steal. Allen Iverson played for most of the game, 43 minutes, and he was 11/16, 5/8 on 3’s, and 9/11 on 3’s for 36 points, and he made 6 assists and 2 rebounds. Carmelo Anthony played 36 minutes and was 14/28, 1/1 on 3’s, and 4/5 from the line for 33 points, and he made 7 rebounds, 3 steals, and 2 assists.
Tremaine here and I will return to post all the info I know about the Nuggets games and the team, although I have already posted most of the reasons the Nuggets don't win as many games as they should win. I had no choice but to suspend my basketball writing while I complete a huge real estate project in a timely fashion. This project is making a house/building/barn/land that has been somewhat neglected over the years appealing to a buyer in all respects. I have pretty much completed that, and just the selling part remains. I have two extremely interested buyers right now. I had to suspend my writing in order to be able to do everything I need to do before departing for my new residence. I am leaving for the new residence no later than June, but I am hoping for May. As soon as I have a buyer, or May 5 or so, whichever comes first, I will return to my 20-25 hours a week part time basketball writing. I will complete all game reports in the off season. Yeah, they will be crazy late, true, and I am the only one who would do game reports that late, but I have my reasons for completing the whole 82 of them. (Or 87 of them, if the Nuggets lose 4-1 in the playoffs again, ) Of course, I will also be completing two Special Reports: "Allen Iverson, What Could Have Been." and "The George Karl Fiasco" Last year I mostly disappeared during the off season, but this year you are stuck with me. My basketball writing is now going to be a permanent thing. I can hardly wait to return, I love basketball and I want to report everything I know about it, and get the comments agree or disagree. I'll be back asap.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (tremaine)</div><div class='quotemain'>The Raptors also, who are one of the best NBA jump shooting teams, and also one of the best 3-point shooting teams, need their best two playmaking guards to make at least half their assists, but in this game, PG Juan Calderon and PG T.J. Ford combined for just 10 of the 27 assists that Toronto made. More disturbing for the Raptors is that they are about dead last in the NBA in total assists.</div> Dude, what? The Raps are near the top of the league in terms of total assists. They average 23.7 a game and are ranked 5th overall. The Nuggets are actually one of the few teams ranked ahead of them.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (o.iatlhawksfan @ Apr 9 2008, 11:34 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>cool. Good luck with your real estate project</div> Thanks a lot. I am missing this forum especially, it's small enough where everyone knows everyone but big enough to be worth participating in. And there is this guy here who I think likes arguing with me, and I like arguing with him. There is nothing like a good old fashioned argument to get the juices flowing. And then the words flow. You see, all I have this button on the bottom of my keyboard. When I press it, it automatically produces game and special reports in excess of 7500 words.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Chutney @ Apr 9 2008, 11:41 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (tremaine)</div><div class='quotemain'>The Raptors also, who are one of the best NBA jump shooting teams, and also one of the best 3-point shooting teams, need their best two playmaking guards to make at least half their assists, but in this game, PG Juan Calderon and PG T.J. Ford combined for just 10 of the 27 assists that Toronto made. More disturbing for the Raptors is that they are about dead last in the NBA in total assists.</div> Dude, what? The Raps are near the top of the league in terms of total assists. They average 23.7 a game and are ranked 5th overall. The Nuggets are actually one of the few teams ranked ahead of them. </div> Damn, you are right. I've edited it out of there. My (false) claim that Toronto is last in assists was totally unnecessary for the point I was making! It was an unforced error so to speak. And I remember at the time thinking "How in the hell can Toronto be last in assists if they have all that good shooting and last year's Coach of the Year?" I was looking at something that Toronto is about last in, but it wasn't assists! Or, is there such a thing as a data base error on a major corporation sports site like Yahoo??? I doubt it, so it was most likely me. When I determine what Toronto is last in that I thought was assists, I'll post again. Thanks for correcting me.
Tremaine caught in a bonehead mistake ! I think I was using the Yahoo sortable stats page at the time I wrote that mistake: Yahoo Sortable BBall Team Stats Page Just to the right of assists per game is turnovers per game. If you click on TO (turnovers) Toronto appears to be just about last in that category. (But they are really just about first, because the fewer the turnovers the better.) The only thing that makes any sense at all is that I meant to click "Ast" and clicked "TO" instead. If that is what actually happened, that was a true "bonehead mistake," because I should have noticed the number and not just the rank, and then have realized that no team can operate with just 11 assists per game. Even the Knicks get almost 19 assists per game. It was a J.R. Smith on a bad night mistake! I may have discovered the way the mistake was made, but I still can't figure out the how, because I take pride in my usual statistical accuracy. From now on, I'll be more careful with an extra, unplanned line thrown in with a claim that I myself am dubious about when I am writing it. Lesson learned. You gotta like this forum, because if you do a bonehead you are going to get corrected, and that's exactly what you want.
It's no biggie, tremaine. We all make mistakes. Here's what you really need to know about Toronto's offense, if you want to make a comparison or anything. Statistically, its a very efficient offense. We shoot at a high percentage, rack up a bunch of assists, and rarely turn the ball over. We're also a very slow-paced halfcourt-oriented team, which accounts for why we're still in the middle of the pack in terms scoring despite that efficiency. Yet, at the end of the day, statistics don't tell you the story during the game and only tell us about what the end result is. Despite all those great stats, the Raptors' offense is very erratic. Like most jumpshooting teams, they go through hot and cold stretches during the course of a game, month, season, etc. and it can lead them to win games they should lose and lose games they should win (a trend that's become all too clear recently). But, on top of that, Toronto only has two players who can create for themselves: Chris Bosh and TJ Ford. Chris Bosh doesn't need much description, we all know what he can do and we see him do it on a regular basis. TJ Ford can take his man off the dribble and score by himself, but he lacks an understanding of how to pick his spots so that he's can be an effective scorer without stagnating our offense. Aside from Bosh and the rare occasion where TJ's showing great recognition, our players rely on others to set them up for scoring opportunities. So basically, what you have is a jumpshooting team that regularly goes through hot and cold stretches. Obviously when they get cold, they try to dump into Bosh and let him score by himself, but teams are figuring out how to defend him (put a quick 3 on him with the threat of a double). Plus he's not nearly as effective when the team can't space the floor for him. But the majority of the roster is so dependent upon someone else to set them up that they really only have the choice of riding out the slump with more perimeter shooting. Really, shooting the ball has become options 1, 2, and 3 for this offense, with no alternative when those options aren't working. Its made it incredibly inconsistent and erratic (not to mention frustrating).
You have the Raptors explained very well. The Nuggets have problems that are very similar. I called the Raptors and the Nuggets two peas in the same pod in the report, because each team is missing one critical ingredient. Neither team has a dominant playmaker, which is a killer for both of them, because if either team had one, either offense would be about the best in the NBA. The Raptors have an out in the open "quarterback controversy," because they have not decided between Calderon and Ford as their true, main PG. So then you had Bosh in this game trying to make up for the lack of a dominant playmaker by making more assists than you want a power forward to make for an efficient offense. The Nuggets also have a quarterback controversy, but it is one that the coaching staff hopes no one knows about, but that I have been writing about since about the beginning of 2008. As I like to say, there are no secrets on the internet!
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (tremaine @ Apr 10 2008, 02:17 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>I called the Raptors and the Nuggets two peas in the same pod in the report, because each team is missing one critical ingredient. Neither team has a dominant playmaker</div> Allen Iverson?
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (THE DADDY @ Apr 10 2008, 06:09 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (tremaine @ Apr 10 2008, 02:17 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>I called the Raptors and the Nuggets two peas in the same pod in the report, because each team is missing one critical ingredient. Neither team has a dominant playmaker</div> Allen Iverson? </div> Yeah, that's who it is supposed to be, but he can't be truly dominant when Anthony Carter is playing 22 or more minutes a game, when Carter is considered to be the starting point guard, and when Carter occasionally actually does make a lot of plays in a game. That's precisely the big problem: Carter is interfering with Iverson's potential to be the dominant playmaker for the Nuggets. The Nuggets offense is not only lacking set plays, it is also lacking a consistent playmaking pattern from one game to the next. Games are ranging from mostly Carter being the playmaker to both equally to mostly Iverson. You can win more games if you keep that about the same from game to game, as most of the playoff teams do. [Jeez, I can't stay completely away from here! This couple keeps saying they are definitely buying the real estate I am selling, and they are in the process of putting up their present residence in Colorado as collatoral to get a bank loan, which they expect within a week or so, and this is making me less ambitious about the selling work right now.]
