<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>Paul Jones says the key to the Raptors chances in their first-round playoff series could come down to Game 1. The Orlando Magic have not made it past the first round of the NBA playoffs since appearing in the 1996 final while the Toronto Raptors have only had one trip to the second round in the team’s existence and have never won a seven-game series. In a couple of weeks one of these franchises will be feeling the sting of another first-round playoff loss. Series Overview It’s like looking in the mirror. The Toronto Raptors and the Orlando Magic have a similar structure as they have both hitched their cart to one main man and supported him with complementary players. These secondary players contribute enough to either win the game outright or force defences to adjust to them and give their primary threat more room to work. In Orlando, Dwight Howard commands most of the attention, but he is supported with three-point shooters that make teams pay for double-teaming him. Hedo Turkoglu is a versatile player who can shoot it from behind the arc; his 40% accuracy ranks him among the top 30 in the league. He will occasionally put it on the floor and get to the basket. In some instances he will use his 6-foot-10 frame to post up a smaller player. Rashard Lewis is also a proficient three-point shooter, ranking 20th at 40.6%, but he does not get to the basket with the regularity he once did. While consensus gives Toronto the advantage at the point guard position, Jameer Nelson is a good three-point shooter, ranking 15th at 41.6% Turkoglu, Lewis, Nelson and occasional three balls from Maurice Evans and Keith Bogans are a major reason the Magic lead the NBA in three-point shots made at 9.8 per game. As a team Orlando is fifth in the NBA in field goal percentage (47.4%) and fourth when it comes to three-point accuracy at 38.6%. The Raptors lean heavily on Chris Bosh and although he is not as physically dominating inside as Howard, he receives the same amount of attention from opponents. When Bosh passes out of double teams his teammates have been accurate enough to rank as the second-best three-point shooting team in the league, making just less than 40% of their attempts. Toronto has three players among league leaders when it comes to three-point marksmanship with Jason Kapono the top three-point percentage shooter in the NBA at 48.3%. Anthony Parker ranks seventh at 43.8% and Jose Calderon is 11th at 42.9%. With all the talk about offence it will come down to defending as neither team has had any issues scoring over the course of the regular season. In three games against Orlando this season Toronto scored an average of 103.3 points per game on 45.5% shooting, while the Magic countered by ringing up an average of 105.7 points per game on 49.2% from the floor. Defensive Dilemmas There are two schools of thought when it comes to trying to contain Dwight Howard, who averaged 24.3 points and 12.7 rebounds against the Raptors, and Toronto has to decide which one of the two strategies it will employ. Howard shot 71.1% this season in those three meetings with Toronto and if the Raptors let that happen they may as well spend their time at Disney World because wins will be tougher to find than a pile of snow on the beach. The Raptors can choose to use Rasho Nesterovic to guard Howard one-on-one, eschewing double teams that will allow other defenders to defend the Magic`s three point shooters. Now this may result in Howard putting up points, but if it means they don’t get beat by some of the other players, Toronto will surely take it. If this is the choice, Nesterovic has to meet Howard early so he does not get deep position in the lane on fast break opportunities or early offensive forays. Rasho has to do his best to keep Howard off the block, force him to catch it out on the floor and dare him to make jump shots. If Nesterovic gets into foul trouble, whoever replaces him has to use the same tactics. Committing fouls against Howard when he is headed for dunks or easy baskets could prove to be worthwhile as he is only a 45.5% free-throw shooter in four career playoff games, well down from his season average of 59.9%. A second option would be to send an aggressive double team at Howard to try to force him to turn the ball over. Howard has had his issues with turnovers, averaging 3.7 turnovers per game. Coughing up the ball was one of the reasons Orlando hired Hall of Famer Patrick Ewing as an assistant to help Howard’s development in recognizing and passing out of double teams. The Raptors’ defensive rotations must be sharp or else Orlando’s three-point shooters will make Toronto pay. It will be interesting to see how the Raptors choose to match up with Turkoglu and Lewis and don’t rule out the possibility of seeing some zone defence from Toronto. But Toronto’s half-court defensive strategy can only kick in if they retreat quickly in transition and stop early offence as the Magic like to push the ball and get it inside early to Howard. The mirror image works for the Raptors as well. The Magic will have match-up issues against Bosh. Earlier in the season when Bosh torched Orlando for 40 points it was an incredulous Stan Van Gundy that said, "Chris Bosh, we could not guard. We’re going to have to think about double-teaming him next time." So who guards Bosh now that Toronto has found an inside presence in Nesterovic? If Howard ventures out on the floor to guard Bosh, Rasho might have a bit of freedom inside, but if Bosh sees someone other than Howard in front him he has got to make Orlando pay. When the inevitable double teams come, he needs to pass the ball and trust his teammates. The key is good ball movement; it’s not the first pass out of a double team but the second or third that does the damage and Toronto has to make shots. Help From the Bench The bench has been a strong for Toronto all season, ranking third in the NBA with 34.2 points per game, while Orlando’s bench is thin and short on playoff experience. There are a number of players on the Raptors bench, some with playoff experience, who have the potential to come up big for Toronto. Regardless, it would not be a surprise to see a change in the starting lineup similar to last year when Sam Mitchell shuffled the deck to get better matchups. Andrea Bargnani had a disappointing season but he can make amends if he finds his game in the post-season. The same can be said for Kapono and should Carlos Delfino find some consistency, Toronto could have a major advantage. Kris Humphries could provide some energy and rebounding and also has some fouls that could be used against the likes of Dwight Howard and Adonal Foyle. Prediction: Toronto in six Orlando was manhandled by Detroit last year while Toronto took New Jersey to six games before being shown the door. The first game of the series is extremely important and here’s why: There have been 363 best-of-seven series in NBA history and the team winning Game 1 has on overall series record of 285-78 (.785 winning percentage). In the 15 series last season only Cleveland (vs. Detroit), San Antonio (vs. Denver) and Utah (vs. Houston) were able to overcome a Game 1 defeat and win their respective series. Since the 2003 playoffs, a No. 3 seed has fallen to a No. 6 seed every year except 2004. The pressure is squarely on Orlando to hold serve and it could be difficult, the same way it was for Toronto last season against New Jersey. The Raptors have never won a series after losing the first game. However, it says here Toronto will win a game in Orlando and take the series in six games.</div> http://www.sportsnet.ca/basketball/2008/04...jones_playoffs/
I'm hoping man, if anything can salvage this disappointing season it is getting past the first round in the playoffs. If the players dedicate themselves to playing top tier basketball that they are capable of then it is possible to take the series in 6 games, I dont want to see incredibly slow starts to begin the games, I want intensity from the start of the ball game and catch Orlando off guard.
Bosh has to play big versus Superman, if Toronto is to have any chance. Everything else you'll try will not (IMO) be enough to beat them.
Im more worried about the defense of our guards especially defending the 3 because were too awful at that. I could see Mitchell getting Ford to help down low to double Howard which leaves Turk or Lewis open behind the arc, and with our horrible defense we will give up that shot all the time. The Raptors, where no defense happens. LoL im just playing around but all a serious note I hope our defensive rotations are sharp and that we can challenge all of the shots.
