Rasmussen is a great pollster, but his electoral vote calculations aren't based upon polling the voters.
From the "most accurate pollster" this election season. http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/03...280-mccain-258/
They have Obama winning Ohio based upon a poll they did in February. In 5 of 6 polls done in Ohio since, McCain has led. You think it's accurate still?
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Denny Crane @ May 9 2008, 10:24 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>They have Obama winning Ohio based upon a poll they did in February. In 5 of 6 polls done in Ohio since, McCain has led. You think it's accurate still?</div> Wisconsin should still be for Obama. I disagree with that prediction.
I definetly think New Jersey is in play for a McCain/Rice ticket. New Jersey voted Republican up until the 80's. New York would also definetly be in play with a McCain/Rice ticket.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Real @ May 9 2008, 11:47 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>I definetly think New Jersey is in play for a McCain/Rice ticket. New Jersey voted Republican up until the 80's. New York would also definetly be in play with a McCain/Rice ticket.</div> They've both been horribly democratic states from what I've seen in every EC map recently.
Since February, Rasmussen is the only pollster to have McCain beating Obama in Wisconsin. Strategic Vision, UofW, and Survey USA all have Obama winning. I think Rasmussen realizes there is some error in their Wisconsin polling, since they gave Wisconsin to Obama in their EC tracking. Wisconsin definitely will go Obama. He has tons of political machines behind him in the state, and has great organization in the state. Kerry didn't have much presence here in 2004, while Bush had a heavy presence, and Kerry still won. I think Obama will win easily. Kerry did horrible in Wisconsin. He lost Racine for goodness sake, and that city should be an easy Democrat win. Milwaukee carried Kerry to victory. Obama will probably do better in Milwaukee while doing better in the rest of the state.