Safely Obama States: (5+ Lead) California (+14) Colorado (+6) Connecticut (+12.5) District of Columbia( +70.7) Delaware (+13.4) Hawaii (+22.5) Iowa (+9.3) Illinois (+18.4) Massachusetts (+15.9) Maryland (+15.7) Maine (+12.8) Minnesota (+12.5) New Jersey (+9.9) New York (+16) Oregon (+11.4) Pennsylvania (+6.7) Rhode Island (+15.6) Vermont (+25.8) Washington (+15.8) Wisconsin (+7.1) Leaning Obama (3-5 point lead) Ohio (Obama +2.9) Tossups (Less than 3 lead by candidates) Florida (McCain +2) Indiana (McCain +0.7) Michigan (Obama +1.6) Missouri (Obama +0.3) North Carolina (McCain +2.7) New Hampshire (Obama +2.6) New Mexico (Obama +2.5) Nevada (McCain +0.4) Virginia (Obama +1.8) Leaning McCain Montana (+4.2) North Dakota (+3.2) Safely McCain Alaska (+5.3) Alabama (+20.9) Arkansas (+12.2) Arizona (+12.1) Georgia (+8.7) Kansas (+9.7) Kentucky (+21.3) Louisiana (+9.3) Idaho (+22.4) Mississippi (+11.8) Nebrasksa (+12.8) Oklahoma (+18.1) South Carolina (+7.9) South Dakota (+5.4) Tennessee (+13.6) Texas (+11.2) Utah (+29.4) West Virginia (+7.2) Wyoming (+18.1) Now the first thing that needs to stand out is that 8 of the 10 toss up states were won by Republicans last time around. Then you see that one of the two Democratic won toss ups is only worth 4 electoral votes. Then you see Ohio...which I know for a fact after they incorporate the latest Ohio poll, will move into the leaning Obama category...so I'll go ahead and move that there. So: Safely: Obama 247 McCain 157 Obama is only 23 electoral votes shy when you look at just locks. Adding leaners: Leaners: Obama 267 McCain 163 That leaves 108 electoral votes in toss ups. If you add each state in what they are leaning at the moment, you get: Obama 317 McCain 221 That is a pretty good margin of victory. The landslide is determined as 375+ EV. To get this, Obama wold have to win all of the tossup states. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
Tim Russert before he died said the election would come down to four states. Colorado, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico. There's a lot, A LOT to be decided between now and the conventions, but I think in the end Colorado is going to be a big state, and I think that it's going to go Obama this fall. He's got a lot going for him overall in this map.
It looks 244 Obama to 201 McCain with a lot of states up for grabs. McCain is up 7% in the most recent poll in Florida. Ooops, so much for the line of reasoning and facts in the first post.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Real @ Jun 17 2008, 01:52 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Tim Russert before he died said the election would come down to four states. Colorado, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico. There's a lot, A LOT to be decided between now and the conventions, but I think in the end Colorado is going to be a big state, and I think that it's going to go Obama this fall. He's got a lot going for him overall in this map.</div> Most recent polls: Obama up 6 in Colorado McCain up 2 in Nevada McCain up 11 in Arizona Obama up 4 in New Mexico 15 EVs for McCain, 14 for Obama
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Real @ Jun 17 2008, 03:52 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Tim Russert before he died said the election would come down to four states. Colorado, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico. There's a lot, A LOT to be decided between now and the conventions, but I think in the end Colorado is going to be a big state, and I think that it's going to go Obama this fall. He's got a lot going for him overall in this map.</div> If you follow the Rasmussen balance of power calculator, they have it at Obama 260 vs. McCain 240, with 4 tossups: Colorado, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Ohio. Colorado is huge because it likely will be the state that guarantees Obama at least a 269 tie in a close election. Then anything from holding onto New Hamsphire, or winning the first congressional district in Nebraska would give Obama the election.
