Eight Rules for Draft Night Success: Let History Guide Great look at the rate of success for different picks chosen in the draft. Thought this was really telling: <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>Nearly half the players drafted in the bottom half of the first round, are out of the league, or barely hanging on, five years after being drafted.</div>
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Netted @ Jun 19 2008, 06:23 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'> Eight Rules for Draft Night Success: Let History Guide Great look at the rate of success for different picks chosen in the draft. Thought this was really telling: <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>Nearly half the players drafted in the bottom half of the first round, are out of the league, or barely hanging on, five years after being drafted.</div> </div> I saw this, and it supported my own quick and dirty research regarding drafting bigs. Specifically, outside of the first few picks, there's no real statistical advantage to drafting a big at #10 instead of #20. The guy at #10 may have more "upside," but they seem to have about the same chance of success. The reports that Rod Thorn attempted to trade up to draft Hilton Armstrong and Sean May support this. The Nets should just draft a big at #21 this year that may not have the accepted "upside," but someone who knows his strengths and weaknesses, and can be a solid roation player. I really think that this year's Josh Boone--a big whose stock has slipped as he stayed in college a few extra years, but who knows how to play--will be Roy Hibbert. Big school, successful program, team-oriented player.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Dumpy @ Jun 19 2008, 08:43 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>I saw this, and it supported my own quick and dirty research regarding drafting bigs. Specifically, outside of the first few picks, there's no real statistical advantage to drafting a big at #10 instead of #20. The guy at #10 may have more "upside," but they seem to have about the same chance of success. The reports that Rod Thorn attempted to trade up to draft Hilton Armstrong and Sean May support this. The Nets should just draft a big at #21 this year that may not have the accepted "upside," but someone who knows his strengths and weaknesses, and can be a solid roation player. I really think that this year's Josh Boone--a big whose stock has slipped as he stayed in college a few extra years, but who knows how to play--will be Roy Hibbert. Big school, successful program, team-oriented player.</div> Three players I want are Westbrook, Rush and Hickson. If Westbrook is gone they could land Rush and Hickson at #10 and 21, but people probably think Rush is a reach at #10. Personally I don't care because I don't see that much difference in the players predicted to go from 9 to 20. I rather get one of the best 2nd tier players than the leftover 1st tiers that have question marks around them. Especially since some 2nd tier players always wind-up out performing where they were drafted and some 1st tiers perform like crap. If Hickson is gone then Hibbert at #21 wouldn't be bad.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Dumpy @ Jun 19 2008, 08:43 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>I saw this, and it supported my own quick and dirty research regarding drafting bigs. Specifically, outside of the first few picks, there's no real statistical advantage to drafting a big at #10 instead of #20. The guy at #10 may have more "upside," but they seem to have about the same chance of success. The reports that Rod Thorn attempted to trade up to draft Hilton Armstrong and Sean May support this. The Nets should just draft a big at #21 this year that may not have the accepted "upside," but someone who knows his strengths and weaknesses, and can be a solid roation player. I really think that this year's Josh Boone--a big whose stock has slipped as he stayed in college a few extra years, but who knows how to play--will be Roy Hibbert. Big school, successful program, team-oriented player.</div> I've seen a lot of hate on Hibbert over the last couple of months, but this post made a very valid and agreeable point; bravo.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (GMJigga @ Jun 20 2008, 12:00 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Dumpy @ Jun 19 2008, 08:43 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>I saw this, and it supported my own quick and dirty research regarding drafting bigs. Specifically, outside of the first few picks, there's no real statistical advantage to drafting a big at #10 instead of #20. The guy at #10 may have more "upside," but they seem to have about the same chance of success. The reports that Rod Thorn attempted to trade up to draft Hilton Armstrong and Sean May support this. The Nets should just draft a big at #21 this year that may not have the accepted "upside," but someone who knows his strengths and weaknesses, and can be a solid roation player. I really think that this year's Josh Boone--a big whose stock has slipped as he stayed in college a few extra years, but who knows how to play--will be Roy Hibbert. Big school, successful program, team-oriented player.</div> I've seen a lot of hate on Hibbert over the last couple of months, but this post made a very valid and agreeable point; bravo. </div> So are you guys jumping on my Hibbert bandwagon, now? Really, he'd be the perfect guy for the Nets' system. He'd fit the Krstic role to a T, IMO. Yeah, he may be slow...but he can't be any slower than Jason Collins.
I'm not sure which of these threads should turn into a Hibbert thread. He apparently really impressed the Nets in the workout today. He could certainly slip to the 20s because of his lack of perceived upside and perceived minimal offense. I'd be pretty happy with Hibbert at #21, with Hickson or Ajinca as alternates if he is gone . . . . which would lead me to reject Lopez at #10. A draft of Westbrook/Gallinari at #10 and Hibbert/Hickson at #21, and a shooter at #40 like Bill Walker, Gary Forbes, or JR Giddens would make me giddy.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Dumpy @ Jun 20 2008, 08:45 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>I'm not sure which of these threads should turn into a Hibbert thread. He apparently really impressed the Nets in the workout today. He could certainly slip to the 20s because of his lack of perceived upside and perceived minimal offense. I'd be pretty happy with Hibbert at #21, with Hickson or Ajinca as alternates if he is gone . . . . which would lead me to reject Lopez at #10. A draft of Westbrook/Gallinari at #10 and Hibbert/Hickson at #21, and a shooter at #40 like Bill Walker, Gary Forbes, or JR Giddens would make me giddy.</div> If you want a shooter @ 40, you don't want Forbes or Walker. Neither are great shooters. Forbes is just a tough, crafty scorer. @ 40 Giddens has GREAT value, he's first round talent.
