I think the Bulls will take Rose, but I want Beasley. We've talked time and time again about finding a low post scorer to pair with Gordon. Here is our chance. We've talked time and time again about finding a legitimate #1 scorer, allowing Gordon to be the #2 scorer. Here is our chance. We'd have a nice scoring trio in Beasley, Gordon, and Deng. All 3 are pretty close to legitimate 20ppg scorers. Beasley has an elite skillset with the ability to face the basket, put the ball on the floor, or post up players. He is also a good rebounder. His biggest problem is defense: but we can make up for that with a rotating Thomas, Noah, and Noce. We've talked about how Rose would free up his teammates, but wouldn't Beasley do the same? By commanding double teams, he will open up the offense too.
When has a team won when their top player didn't defend well? Magic and the Lakers? Beasley damn sure ain't no Magic. It's got to be Rose.
I think it's got to be Rose too. He just seems to be very solid in his worst categories and pretty damn good in his better ones. And he's not any sort of an attitude concern to boot. Worst case for him is that he's way above average. Best case is he's a top 3 PG for a decade. Worst case for Beasley is he's Glenn Robinson and we're all pissed. Best case is... well, does anyone think he's comparable to the really top notch scoring forwards? Lebron? Grant Hill with no injuries? Charles Barkley? He doesn't seem quite at that level to me. I'd actually like to swing a deal and get both of them, but when push comes to shove, I'd go with Rose.
By the way, who do I really want? 1. Bulls draft Rose 2. Bulls send Hinrich and Thomas to Minnesota or Miami for Beasley and change. 1- Rose, Gordon 2- Gordon, Hughes, Thabo 3- Deng, Thabo, Nocioni 4- Beasley, Gooden, Nocioni 5- Noah, Gooden Or something like that.
Regarding your last two posts.. I think Miami would part with Marion rather than Beasley for the package you suggest. I'd still do it. It's really a crapshoot, since Mayo is the guy in the draft who's been hyped for longer than since the NCAA tournament. Maybe Rose's downside is Chris Duhon with a better shot, or worse - Jay Williams. The guy's height gets shorter and shorter with every report; he's down to about 6'2" these days. I think he's certainly going to be no worse than Hinrich, actually. Beasley's downside seems to me to be the PF version of Luol Deng. He's going to be a nice player, at worst case, but he has size in his favor so he can use that to his advantage if he's capable of playing SF or even some SG. His upside is hard to gauge; he looks like he can score (but so did Tyrus Thomas) and rebound at least. Big scoring numbers in shorter clocked games, but against weaker competition. The obvious is that Beasley actually fills a need we have, while Rose adds to our strongest position (guard, in general). Not that drafting for need is the best thing, but he doesn't look to be a project and it'd be hard to argue with him as the pick.
BTW, on the record, I picked Rose for the Bulls in the S2 mock draft. It's rare to have #1 in the draft like this, and while there's a clear top 2 or top 4 to draft from, there is no LeBron or Oden type player in the draft, so there's some room for angst.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Denny Crane @ Jun 25 2008, 04:38 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>BTW, on the record, I picked Rose for the Bulls in the S2 mock draft. It's rare to have #1 in the draft like this, and while there's a clear top 2 or top 4 to draft from, there is no LeBron or Oden type player in the draft, so there's some room for angst.</div> Oh indeed, it does seem like the Bulls will draft Rose.
I really don't get how anyone could argue with Beasley being the number one pick. Hes going to be a 25 ppg scorer for his entire career. Add that to the already young but tenacious bulls team, and you've got a contender in the east for at least 10 years. With Rose, its more of a toss-up. If the get Rose they have to eventually either trade Heinrich or Gordon. Either way, I don't like the Bulls so i hope they do pick Rose, Wade and Beasley would be absolutely sick.
My analysis is this. If the Bulls take Rose, they're effectively giving up on Hinrich as the PG, and are certain to let Gordon go, even walk for nothing. A Rose/Hinrich back court is tiny and not likely to go anywhere. Rose may be the real deal at PG, but Hinrich has really shown he can shoot in just one of his four seasons and last season looks like it might be what to expect. Hinrich has historically guarded opponents' big guards, but he's been posted up by a lot of them to good effect. So it's more likely that the Bulls would want to pair a tall SG next to Rose, which would be Hughes or Thabo. Thabo is clearly a favorite of management, so he may well end up being the starter. The Bulls are going to commit to a big contract for one of Deng and Gordon and it's been made clear it's Deng. I do happen to like Deng as a player, but the realist in me says he's got to make a giant step upward to be a top SF in the league, and I just don't see it in him; he just isn't that gifted physically. Gooden has been fantastic for us since we got him. 14 PPG and 9.3 RPG in just 31 minutes. If anything, I want to see him play a lot more minutes. At 36/game, he might give us 18/11 or thereabouts. Though he's not super tall, he's got girth and could play C for us and we'd be happy with his work there. Noah somehow gets it done and could well be a regular double-double guy on the front line. While he would score double digits, they'd all be free throws, putbacks, and dunks. His shooting form and ability to hit outside shots is about as bad as I've ever seen in an NBA player. He could play C allowing Gooden to play PF. The alternative is to play Tyrus Thomas at PF with Gooden at C. He's maddeningly inconsistent and I have a hard time seeing him getting to double-double effectiveness, and if he did, he wouldn't be one of the better PFs in the league. The Bulls are likely to let Duhon walk for nothing. He'll likely get a good part of the MLE to sign with a team that needs a defensive minded pass-first PG. He'd be a great fit for either Indiana or Cleveland, among others. He'd also be a great signing for Portland to pair with Roy. Before considering any trades, the Bulls lineup would be something like: Rose/Hughes Noah/Deng Gooden With Hinrich/Gordon/Nocioni/Thabo/Thomas providing a nice ten-deep rotation. I've posted this before, I'll do it again. The trade that's screaming to be made if we draft Rose is Hinrich+Thomas for Marion. The Heat would replace Marion in the lineup with Beasley, and would have a nice guard to pair with Wade. They have other issues that we can't help them with (like no C). Our lineup would be solid: Rose/Hughes Deng/Marion Gooden Gordon/Nocioni/Thabo/Noah off the bench make a fantastic 9 man rotation. For the first time in Pax's regime, all 5 starters can put the ball in the basket. Another thing to consider is that new coach Vinnie Del Negro comes to us from the Phoenix organization. If he's a fan of smallball, we have the guys to run in that kind of scheme. I could easily see Rose+Gordon+Hughes playing 3 guard sets (or Thabo for Hughes).
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Answer_AI03 @ Jun 25 2008, 02:47 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>I really don't get how anyone could argue with Beasley being the number one pick. Hes going to be a 25 ppg scorer for his entire career. Add that to the already young but tenacious bulls team, and you've got a contender in the east for at least 10 years. With Rose, its more of a toss-up. If the get Rose they have to eventually either trade Heinrich or Gordon. Either way, I don't like the Bulls so i hope they do pick Rose, Wade and Beasley would be absolutely sick.</div> A lot of merit to this line of thinking (regarding the picks/talent). My analysis if the Bulls go this route is this. Hinrich now becomes a vital player for the Bulls and finally gets to be the full-time PG. At PG, he's actually biggish for the position and a darned good defender. I expect he'd be happier there than he's ever been as a Bull. It may be questionable, though, as the last time he was full-time PG, the team really sucked (Crawford was the SG back then). Maybe with better talent at the other 4 spots, he might excel. In Beasley, we might have the complement to Hinrich that gives us something resembling the Stockton/Malone pick&roll combo that Utah almost won championships with. Deng's a LOT better than anyone Utah ever had at SF, Gordon's a LOT better than anyone Utah had at SG, too. The Bulls would still want to go big at the SG position, so it's likely Hughes or Thabo who'll start. Hughes can score, while Thabo would give opponents a guy to leave to double team. Hinrich/Hughes Deng/Beasley Gooden Again, all 5 starters can put the ball in the basket. The 2 H's could be a formidable defensive pairing in the back court if they both get their acts together. The bench of Gordon/Thomas/Noah/Nocioni/Thabo again gives us a nice 10-deep rotation. Paying $10M to keep Gordon along with $7M for Nocioni is pretty expensive for bench players, though. Again, I see the Buls letting Gordon walk. Trying to S&T Gordon is problematic because of the BYC issues. Gordon is wanted by Portland fans and would be an awesome fit next to Roy, but the package they'd offer the Bulls would be a bunch of stiffs (guys like LaFrentz). Though Paxson seems to like those kinds of deals.
John Hollinger's take: http://www.nysun.com/sports/how-the-first-...d-may-go/80638/ 1. Chicago Derrick Rose, PG, Memphis Well it didn't take long to get our first mistake of the draft, now did it? Rose is going to be a good point guard, don't get me wrong. But I'm not sure he's as good as advertised ?€” how do you play for Memphis all year with talent like that and average less than five assists a game? Meanwhile, the Bulls have desperately needed a post player for eons and have already passed on trading for Kevin Garnett and Pau Gasol. Now they're passing on Michael Beasley? I don't get it. 2. Miami Michael Beasley, PF, Kansas St. Beasley is far and away the most talented player in this draft, and his goofy personality is the only thing scaring teams off. In fact, the Heat may be scared off, too — it's possible they trade this pick. But if so, it's to another lucky team that will get Beasley's 20 and 10 a night for the next decade.
It looks like the Bulls might take Beasley #1, and then trade for Wade. Bucher reported it, and now there is a story in the Sun Sentinnel where Donnie Walsh is talking about a big name star being heavily shopped, which is probably Wade. If we walk out of the draft with Gordon, Deng, Wade, and Beasley as our core, I don't know how you could be happier as a Bulls fan.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Denny Crane @ Jun 25 2008, 05:58 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>John Hollinger's take:]</div> I like me some Hollinger but when your system rates Drew Gooden as the best prospect other than Beasley in the last 6 years and has Michael Sweetney 4th best and Marvin Williams 5th , it's time to be a whole less cocky about progasticating with that as your basis.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (JayJohnstone @ Jun 25 2008, 10:28 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Denny Crane @ Jun 25 2008, 05:58 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>John Hollinger's take:]</div> I like me some Hollinger but when your system rates Drew Gooden as the best prospect other than Beasley in the last 6 years and has Michael Sweetney 4th best and Marvin Williams 5th , it's time to be a whole less cocky about progasticating with that as your basis. </div> Everyone over 17, without an asterick is a superstar though.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (JayJohnstone @ Jun 25 2008, 08:28 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Denny Crane @ Jun 25 2008, 05:58 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>John Hollinger's take:]</div> I like me some Hollinger but when your system rates Drew Gooden as the best prospect other than Beasley in the last 6 years and has Michael Sweetney 4th best and Marvin Williams 5th , it's time to be a whole less cocky about progasticating with that as your basis. </div> I don't see him referring to his rating system anywhere in the bit I posted, or elsewhere in the article. I see stuff like "how can you average less than 5 assists/game with the talent he had on his team" and "the bulls still need a big who's a scoring threat"
As much as I love Rose and look at him as a big upgrade over Hinrich, I think we should pick Beasley. He gives us almost everything we've lacked for the past...well....since basically forever it seems. He gives us a legit low post scorer. He was a monster down low in college, and despite being a bit undersized, I think he'd do the same thing in the pros. He's a strong kid with a great skill set. Aside from being able to pound the ball down low, he's got a sweet stroke. Having him gives us the low post scorer and it also gives us a go-to guy, taking pressure off Gordon and Deng. In the end though, despite what I want, I think they're going to take Rose. All signs really point to him, and quite frankly, I can't say I'd be disappointed with the pick. He's a huge upgrade over Hinrich in my opinion, and really makes him expendable. Rose is really that rare talent that could very easily be this teams franchise player and someone who could become one of the top PGs in the league very quickly. Though, I'd be lying if I said his jumper didn't scare me. He needs to improve that in a big way, otherwise he could quickly run into Dwayne Wade like injury issues.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Denny Crane @ Jun 25 2008, 10:59 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (JayJohnstone @ Jun 25 2008, 08:28 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Denny Crane @ Jun 25 2008, 05:58 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>John Hollinger's take:]</div> I like me some Hollinger but when your system rates Drew Gooden as the best prospect other than Beasley in the last 6 years and has Michael Sweetney 4th best and Marvin Williams 5th , it's time to be a whole less cocky about prognosticating with that as your basis. </div> I don't see him referring to his rating system anywhere in the bit I posted, or elsewhere in the article. </div> It's very prominent on ESPN. It's Insider. http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2008/i...aftRater-080620
What does his rating system have to do with whether the Bulls should draft a big vs. a guard? As for his rating system and Gooden, the article at the link you posted says, "Our data goes back to 2002, with the caveat that the 2002 guys have only one year of data, and so the projections for that year are less reliable." Gooden was drafted in 2002. A second point about his system is that he suggests that it is a predictor of where a guy gets drafted. The title says "who will be the best pro" though he never says anything about his system projecting who will be the best pros. His analysis/skinny of how good the players will be looks no different to me than any mock draft - pure opinion. A third point is that no system can predict Sweetney would eat himself out of the league, or that Sean May would be injury prone. Even with that consideration, it looks to me like his list of top ten is a .700 batting average.
