<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>Who Is the Best Cover Corner? July 7, 2008 This is the first in a series of pieces on the top cover cornerbacks and secondaries. Who is the best NFL cover corner? Who has the best coverage unit around? The question is being kicked around a lot these days, with cornerbacks getting free agent contracts that rival those of quarterbacks for sheer dollars and bonuses. I’ve come across several lists in recent weeks, all going off reputations, some earned, some not. BSR has decided to pursue these questions with the use of the largest database of corner coverage stats around. K.C. Joyner, the author of the Scientific Football books, will soon release Scientific Football 2008, the fourth edition of his series. Joyner’s forte is breaking down the passing game, from offensive and defensive perspectives. His CB YPA will shortly become, in my opinion, shorthand for measuring a corner’s skills, in the same way that OPS has become the one stat that can best convey a baseball hitter’s skills. It’s easy to calculate and easy to understand. It shows how many yards a corner surrendered on average every time a pass was thrown to his man. K.C. prints out a YPA ranking every year and in this year’s book has ranked the teams by tandem, calculating the average YPAs for the starting CB duos on each team. What he has not yet done is compile YPAs over a longer span, say the last three or four years. When he learned I was putting such a spreadsheet together, he kindly forwarded his 2007 YPA rankings, which will not be published for several more weeks, and gave me permission to publish pieces from my calculated averages. BSR readers will therefore be the first to see these numbers. If you are not a regular Joyner reader, I highly recommend his ESPN columns and his books which can be ordered here. The spread sheet raised as many questions as it answered. Although I have four years of data at my disposal, is it fair to omit a cornerback who has only played two or three years, but at a high level? What about a player who has missed a year due to injury? In addition, what about players who have solid numbers but show a steady decline. Should I rate them above or below a player who has a similar number but whose averages are improving? For now, I’ve decided to offer these breakdowns as a starting point for discussion, not as the last word in the debate over which players are best and which units are best. I’m going to offer two individual lists, one showing the best cornerbacks for the last four years and one for the last three years. The reason I’m pushing the data to be comprehensive is the generally inconsistent level of CB play from one year to the next. It’s fairly routine to see a corner, even a good one, have two stellar years, then drop off a year and then bounce back strong again. For examples, look at the lines for Deshea Townsend and Ronde Barber on the top ten list below. I’m sure there are many factors for a dropoff. A corner might be playing hurt. He may lose his confidence for a stretch of the season or an entire campaign. His pass rush might be weaker one given year. Whatever the case, there are not many corners in my sample who strung four strong years together. Even the better ones had a so-so year somewhere in the mix. That said, I believe that a player must display consistency in order to be considered tops at his position. So my first list will, with one exception, include only those players who have posted numbers for the last four years. Player-team 2004 2005 2006 2007 YPA Avg. 1. Springs - Washington 4.2 5.5 6.2 6.2 5.5 2. Newman - Dallas 5.8 5.8 7.1 6.1 6.2 4T. Townsend - Pittsburgh 7.1 5.1 7.8 5.2 6.3 4T. Barber - Tampa Bay 5.7 6.7 7.9 4.9 6.3 6T. Woodson - Green Bay 7.0 * 5.3 7.2 6.5 6T. Lucas - Carolina 7.9 5.8 5.2 7.2 6.5 7. O’Neal - Cincinnati 5.8 6.6 6.8 7.0 6.6 8. Smoot - Washington 7.6 7.2 6.9 5.5 6.8 10T. Jammer - San Diego 7.8 7.5 6.2 5.9 6.9 10T. Asomugha - Oakland 7.5 6.3 6.9 7.0 6.9 (*Charles Woodson did not get a rating in ‘05 because he was playing a rover position in Oakland’s system and did not qualify for the CB ratings.) Some observations: – The cornerback positon is incredibly unstable. You don’t think of corner as an attrition position, like running back, but there are only 40 players who had qualifying numbers each of the last four years. That’s just 1.25 per team. This is why cornerbacks who hit the open market make so much money. The demand for solid corners does not come close to meeting demand. – Raise your hand if you considered Shawn Springs one of the top five corners in the game. I considered him for my top-of-my-head top ten, but he’s been the best YPA guy in the league the past four years. – Raise both hands if you had Deshea Townsend in your top 20. – There’s Terence Newman, Cowboys’ fans, parked at #2. His highest ranking in any given year has been 8th, but as you can see he’s been Mr. Steady. His 6.1 last year is even more impressive given his heel injury. – In the what might have been category, check out Ken Lucas at 6th. The year he hit free agency he was rated higher by the Dallas scouting staff than Anthony Henry. Bill Parcells took the recommendation of Todd Bowles, who had coached Henry in Cleveland and who is now with the Tuna in Miami. Had Parcells pursued Lucas instead — Lucas did cost more — he might still be coaching. – Notice the big names not on this list: Champ Bailey, Chris McAlister, Nate Clements, Asante Samuel? Inconsistency put them down the list. Bailey had one of the best years Joyner has ever recorded in ‘06, but it’s his only exceptional year the last four. He ranked in the bottom half in ‘04 and ‘05. – Lastly, YPA tells us a lot, but don’t rush to judgments on guys who are on the list or are not. One fact that nags at me is that gambling, CBs, who Joyner calls “ball-hawks,” often have higher YPAs. Antonio Cromartie, for example, only had a 7.2 YPA last year, which is about league average. Guys like this will give up more intermediate and big throws in exchange for more picks. Conversely, CBs in cover two systems tend to have lower YPAs than they do when they play in more aggresive systems. Should we take the YPAs straight or weight them somewhat depending on a player’s personal style and scheme? I’ll repeat, take this chart as a point of departure. Discuss. Next: The top 10 CBs by YPA for the last three years. Programming Note: I, like our Vice President, will be spending the next few days in an “undisclosed location.” I don’t know if his getaways involve a comely blonde, but mine will. I’ll see you folks again oh, Thursday. Maybe.</div> http://www.blueandsilverreport.com/category/nfl/players/ Not that YPA is necessarily the best means of judging a CB, but it is more relevant than looking at tackles, INTs, and passes defensed to evaluate a CB. And once again, there is another metric where Newman ranks near the top. Anyone questioning why we kept Newman, well....this is why. He is extremely productive.
Newman has always been productive, but he gives up a lot of space at times. I think, however, that has do to with his injury a bit and he'll be back this season hitting a lot harder.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (King Shake @ Jul 9 2008, 08:04 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Newman has always been productive, but he gives up a lot of space at times. I think, however, that has do to with his injury a bit and he'll be back this season hitting a lot harder.</div> Are you talking about last season? Because historically, Newman's played a lot of close, tight coverage (his strength). Last season, like you said, he played injured. And you could tell how much it affected him, specifically in the Buffalo game....where he was run down from behind on that INT. When Newman came back from the injury, they actually moved him to RCB for awhile because he couldn't play LCB and plant off his injured foot. Newman has never played RCB before in Dallas; he's always been our LCB (by that I mean, he played RCB pretty exclusively; he's been lined up at RCB before when he's shadowing a WR). This really affected our coverage ability (especially in the nickel, when Newman couldn't move into the slot. Nate Jones was terrible and cannot cover the slot.) I forgot what game it was; but Newman eventually moved back to LCB.
Yeah, I was talking about last season. I think Newman, if he can play 100% this year, will have a great season. Plus, you add Pacman at RCB, what a duo. If Pacman can play to his full ability, we have probably the best CB duo in the league. Also, Mike Jenkins...he's a RCB, I believe? When do you think he'll be in the line-up? I'd like to see what he can do and as our 25th pick, he should be able to come in right away. OT - Jenkins, born in Germany...and has the same birthday as I do. Fun fact right durr.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (King Shake @ Jul 9 2008, 08:20 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Yeah, I was talking about last season. I think Newman, if he can play 100% this year, will have a great season. Plus, you add Pacman at RCB, what a duo. If Pacman can play to his full ability, we have probably the best CB duo in the league. Also, Mike Jenkins...he's a RCB, I believe? When do you think he'll be in the line-up? I'd like to see what he can do and as our 25th pick, he should be able to come in right away. OT - Jenkins, born in Germany...and has the same birthday as I do. Fun fact right durr.</div> Not sure on Jenkins. My guess is he played a lot of LCB in college, since he was better than Trae Williams. Generally speaking, teams line up their best CB at LCB because QBs mostly are right handed and its easier to look to the right....so...that's why Newman lines up at LCB. Jenkins probably did the same. Not sure how Dallas plans on managing Jenkins/PacMan. But if Henry/Newman are our starters, when we go nickel, either Jenkins or PacMan will line up at LCB while Newman moves into the slot. Henry will remain at RCB. If Pacman beats out Henry, Pacman will line up at RCB with Newman at LCB. When we go nickel, Henry would come in at RCB, and Pacman would slide over to LCB, Newman into the slot.... When we go dime, we've actually been experimenting using Henry in the opposite slot position (to cover TEs 1 on 1). Henry has the size to do that; plus, with his coverage skills, can handle a TE 1 on 1. This is pretty exciting and I hope we do this more. Pacman and Jenkins would then battle for LCB and RCB. The only thing guaranteed is Newman will be our LCB in standard packages, and move into the slot in the nickel and probably dime. Its nice to finally have CB depth
Another thing to keep an eye on: Last year, we played a lot of "off coverages" (as in our CBs playing off the WRs) because Newman/Henry will trying to play through injuries, Reeves sucked, Nate Jones sucked worse.... This year, we'll have a healthy Newman, Henry.....and more talented depth at CB in Adam Jones, Mike Jenkins, and Orlando Scandrick. The thing to keep an eye on is if we continue to play off the WR. If we do, its apparently Wade's scheme to play off WRs. If not, it will show us the reason we did it last year was bec. of the CBs we had and injuries. (Except for Henry; he has always played off the WR because he lacks the speed to turn and run with faster WR...but makes up for it with excellent recognition/reaction skills)
wow, that was very informative. I visit another football site and the consenus was that Asomugha was the best CB... a player I've honestly never heard of. I've always liked Newman though but I found the Boys secondary to be the weak link at times as we gave up a lot of 3rd and long plays for first downs. It's like the Cowboy's D lets up a little on 3rd down at times. I can see I'm going to learn a lot this year as I have mentioned, I just kinda watched the games and didn't pay to close attention to coverages and the names on the backs of all the jersey's
Aso is a great CB. Like I said, I am not sure YPA is the best measurement.... but its still a good measurement. Aso was awesome last year (and the year before). And in fact, from what I've seen the past two years, I'd be hard pressed to pick a CB who's played better than him. Newman has always been the model of consistancy. And its even more impressive he did this on an injured foot. The reason for our coverage struggles was severalfold: we weren't getting good coverage from our LBers. Bradie James is mediocre in coverage. Burnett wasn't all that impressive. Ayodele was a complete non factor. Ware is good in coverage, but we need him rushing the passer. And Greg Ellis sucks in coverage. Add to that Reeves ineptness..... Nate Jones being horrible, then the injuries to Henry and Newman.....and its amazing how the secondary played considering everything working against them. Brilliant piece of coaching by Wade, that went relatively unnoticed.
