So I have the 2nd overall pick in our draft, and the dude in front of me is probably going to take either LT or Stephen Jackson. Now in most leagues it would be easy to take either LT or AP w/ the 2nd pick, but our league is different. QBs get 6 points for passing TDs instead of 4 (and RB/WR get 6pts for TDs) which in my opinion would make Manning or Brady better options at that spot. Last year the total points scored by top players were: Brady - 478 Romo - 355 Manning - 331 Big Ben -313 Brees - 303 Anderson - 302 then LT - 297 (AP had 226) My question is should I consider taking Manning/Brady over LT/AP if QBs score more points than RBs, or are the stud RBs just too hard to pass up?
How many teams are in your league? If your playing a shallow league (8 or less teams) Go with a RB since there is a bigger drop off in top teir RB than there is in QBs. If you get a QB you might get stuck with a level 2 RB, but if you get one of the big RBs you should still be able to get a great QB. Keep in mind...in basic leagues you only get points for one QB a week but you get points for two RBs...on average, teams should carry about 4 RBs but usually only carry 2 QBs.
This question is where, in my opinion, you seperate the casual fantasy player from the serious contender....its not enough to look a player and consider only the total points he is expected to offer you, you also must look at the difference between his totals and the average starter in the league at his position....assuming a 12 team league, and looking at the totals listed, Brady offered 12 points more a week(14 week season) than the average QB(in this case, the #6 passer, Anderson)....check to see how much better LTs average was over the #12 RB and compare....other factors must be taken into consideration as well....Brady had a lifetime season....hes going to perform well, but can he match those numbers? history tells us that is doubtful....LT actually had a somewhat down season for himself, but can he maintain or rebound? Consider hes a RB whos 29 years old and has touched the ball 2834 times in the past 7 seasons....hes got some mileage on the tires now and he did have an injury that put him out of a playoff game....while theres some questions about LT, Brady is as sure a bet not to get injured as just about any NFL starter.... In the end, conventionally accepted FF wisdom means there will be a run on RBs early while QBs will linger.....if you pass on a RB in round 1, you wont be able to get a top 10 RB in the 2nd(once again, league size is a factor), while you may be able to get a top 3 QB in round 2....
