Rumor On KNBR: Warriors trying to trade for Josh Smith

do this if you're G. State......

 

I kind of like Harrington with the new lineup. With the current lineup there are a lot of slashers and mid-range players. Harrington can stretch the defense a bit, since he's a pretty good outside shooter.

Josh Smith would be an interesting addition though. He would be an interesting player to play with Biedrins in the post with his shot blocking ability. I'd guess that he's athletic enough to flourish in an fast paced system like Nelson wants to run.

The bottom line for me is how much money/what kind of contract Smith would be getting in the end. I don't know if he's worth a huge investment. Harrington/Wright/Belinelli is a decent offer with definite risk however (both in the uncertainty of how the young players - Marco, Wright, Smith - will develop and whether Smith is worth a huge all-star kind of investment -- is he going to be the one to push this team into the playoffs?).

So I guess I cannot say that I seriously support or am certainly against this trade proposal. I have hardly even watched Josh Smith play, so that kind of limits my ability to really analyze this trade too. So I guess these are just my floating ideas about this rumor.

EDIT: Actually looking at the stats, maybe Corey and Stephen have more range than I thought. So maybe Harrington is not that important.

Josh Smith could probably cause a bunch of turnovers and improve the transition game from defense to offense by getting the steal, block, rebound and pushing it forward real quick, especially with players like Ellis and Maggette on the court at the same time.

 

Smith gives you something you guys need and that is a defensive presence....and he's young as hell and has a high ceiling of potential.........

 

Smith is the classic case of flash over substance. "Look at his numbers" etc. I only saw a couple of the games v. Celts but the Hawks did not push the Celts to 7 games because of Josh Smith; they did so because of the play of Joe Johnson and Al Horford. Yes there was one great play where I saw Smith block Garnett(?) down low, get the rebound then go coast to coast, that was sweet.

But what stood out to me was more the solid rebounding in traffic and low post scoring that the Hawks got from Horford. Al Horford is the franchise; not Smith. I want players who get the tough rebounds, who know how to box out, who make the extra pass. Wright has a better shot of being one of those than Smith.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (kdub @ Jul 30 2008, 11:14 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Why does ATL do this though? Cap space? They believe Wright might become Josh Smith lite? The potential of Bellinelli? If anything, they should be trading for a center so they can permanently move Al Horford to PF.</div>

I think Josh Smith has overstayed his welcome in Atlanta. He doesn't get along with the Mike Woodson and Woodson just signed a new contract so he's not going anywhere.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (philsmith75 @ Jul 30 2008, 12:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Smith is the classic case of flash over substance. "Look at his numbers" etc. I only saw a couple of the games v. Celts but the Hawks did not push the Celts to 7 games because of Josh Smith; they did so because of the play of Joe Johnson and Al Horford. Yes there was one great play where I saw Smith block Garnett(?) down low, get the rebound then go coast to coast, that was sweet.

But what stood out to me was more the solid rebounding in traffic and low post scoring that the Hawks got from Horford. Al Horford is the franchise; not Smith. I want players who get the tough rebounds, who know how to box out, who make the extra pass. Wright has a better shot of being one of those than Smith.</div>

I have to disagree. Smith is still young, just like Wright, and he hasn't shown us everything yet. We haven't seen ANYTHING from Wright yet. How do you figure Wright is going to be a bruiser? I don't see that at all from what I've seen. I think we'll get that from Hendrix.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Kensaku @ Jul 30 2008, 02:11 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (philsmith75 @ Jul 30 2008, 12:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Smith is the classic case of flash over substance. "Look at his numbers" etc. I only saw a couple of the games v. Celts but the Hawks did not push the Celts to 7 games because of Josh Smith; they did so because of the play of Joe Johnson and Al Horford. Yes there was one great play where I saw Smith block Garnett(?) down low, get the rebound then go coast to coast, that was sweet.

But what stood out to me was more the solid rebounding in traffic and low post scoring that the Hawks got from Horford. Al Horford is the franchise; not Smith. I want players who get the tough rebounds, who know how to box out, who make the extra pass. Wright has a better shot of being one of those than Smith.</div>

I have to disagree. Smith is still young, just like Wright, and he hasn't shown us everything yet. We haven't seen ANYTHING from Wright yet. How do you figure Wright is going to be a bruiser? I don't see that at all from what I've seen. I think we'll get that from Hendrix.
</div>

I'm not saying Wright is going to be a bruiser, just a more rounded, more fundamental player.

Remember, if you are going to play the $$ game, Wright is about $1.5 per year vs. likely $10-11M per for Smith. I'm taking Wright.

 

If the W's are the Western team in a S&T, then there is a hangup with it according to Hoopsworld.com:
"Josh Smith: No resolution yet in Atlanta. Josh Smith remains a restricted free agent and to date it doesn't appear the Hawks are willing to pay him the going rate - at least based on the numbers received by players like Monta Ellis, Andris Biedrins and Emeka Okafor ($10-12 million a season).

The question remains, does Smith accept the team's qualifying offer of $3.2 million and look to leave as an unrestricted free agent next year? Or can the Hawks find a satisfactory sign-and-trade for the talented forward?

One hitch in any Smith negotiation is the widely misunderstood Base Year Compensation (BYC) clause that limits Atlanta's ability to trade him.

Assuming a team is over the salary cap, a team can take in more salary than they send out only if it comes within 125% + $100k of the incoming figure. In other words if a team is sending out a player making $10 million, they can take in as much as $12.6 million but no more. (Note: This doesn't apply for trade exceptions.)

Any raise over 20% makes a player BYC, meaning the team sending out the player is only credited for half of the player's salary (or their prior year's compensation, whichever is greater). That means if Smith signed a contract starting at $10 million, the league would consider the Hawks' outgoing number as $5 million. Factoring in the 125% + $100k cushion, the most they would be able to take in for Smith would be $6.35 million.

How does BYC impact potential suitors?"

Rumors: Josh Smith and BYC

I don't think we'll get Smith unless he takes less than Monta and AB.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (philsmith75 @ Jul 30 2008, 12:14 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Kensaku @ Jul 30 2008, 02:11 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (philsmith75 @ Jul 30 2008, 12:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Smith is the classic case of flash over substance. "Look at his numbers" etc. I only saw a couple of the games v. Celts but the Hawks did not push the Celts to 7 games because of Josh Smith; they did so because of the play of Joe Johnson and Al Horford. Yes there was one great play where I saw Smith block Garnett(?) down low, get the rebound then go coast to coast, that was sweet.

But what stood out to me was more the solid rebounding in traffic and low post scoring that the Hawks got from Horford. Al Horford is the franchise; not Smith. I want players who get the tough rebounds, who know how to box out, who make the extra pass. Wright has a better shot of being one of those than Smith.</div>

I have to disagree. Smith is still young, just like Wright, and he hasn't shown us everything yet. We haven't seen ANYTHING from Wright yet. How do you figure Wright is going to be a bruiser? I don't see that at all from what I've seen. I think we'll get that from Hendrix.
</div>

I'm not saying Wright is going to be a bruiser, just a more rounded, more fundamental player.

Remember, if you are going to play the $ game, Wright is about $1.5 per year vs. likely $10-11M per for Smith. I'm taking Wright.
</div>

Right, but if we're including Harrington, that's 10 mil right there...

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (jason voorhees @ Jul 30 2008, 12:28 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>If the W's are the Western team in a S&T, then there is a hangup with it according to Hoopsworld.com:
"Josh Smith: No resolution yet in Atlanta. Josh Smith remains a restricted free agent and to date it doesn't appear the Hawks are willing to pay him the going rate - at least based on the numbers received by players like Monta Ellis, Andris Biedrins and Emeka Okafor ($10-12 million a season).

The question remains, does Smith accept the team's qualifying offer of $3.2 million and look to leave as an unrestricted free agent next year? Or can the Hawks find a satisfactory sign-and-trade for the talented forward?

One hitch in any Smith negotiation is the widely misunderstood Base Year Compensation (BYC) clause that limits Atlanta's ability to trade him.

Assuming a team is over the salary cap, a team can take in more salary than they send out only if it comes within 125% + $100k of the incoming figure. In other words if a team is sending out a player making $10 million, they can take in as much as $12.6 million but no more. (Note: This doesn't apply for trade exceptions.)

Any raise over 20% makes a player BYC, meaning the team sending out the player is only credited for half of the player's salary (or their prior year's compensation, whichever is greater). That means if Smith signed a contract starting at $10 million, the league would consider the Hawks' outgoing number as $5 million. Factoring in the 125% + $100k cushion, the most they would be able to take in for Smith would be $6.35 million.

How does BYC impact potential suitors?"

Rumors: Josh Smith and BYC

I don't think we'll get Smith unless he takes less than Monta and AB.</div>

I'm confused.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (jason voorhees @ Jul 30 2008, 02:28 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>If the W's are the Western team in a S&T, then there is a hangup with it according to Hoopsworld.com:
"Josh Smith: No resolution yet in Atlanta. Josh Smith remains a restricted free agent and to date it doesn't appear the Hawks are willing to pay him the going rate - at least based on the numbers received by players like Monta Ellis, Andris Biedrins and Emeka Okafor ($10-12 million a season).

The question remains, does Smith accept the team's qualifying offer of $3.2 million and look to leave as an unrestricted free agent next year? Or can the Hawks find a satisfactory sign-and-trade for the talented forward?

One hitch in any Smith negotiation is the widely misunderstood Base Year Compensation (BYC) clause that limits Atlanta's ability to trade him.

Assuming a team is over the salary cap, a team can take in more salary than they send out only if it comes within 125% + $100k of the incoming figure. In other words if a team is sending out a player making $10 million, they can take in as much as $12.6 million but no more. (Note: This doesn't apply for trade exceptions.)

Any raise over 20% makes a player BYC, meaning the team sending out the player is only credited for half of the player's salary (or their prior year's compensation, whichever is greater). That means if Smith signed a contract starting at $10 million, the league would consider the Hawks' outgoing number as $5 million. Factoring in the 125% + $100k cushion, the most they would be able to take in for Smith would be $6.35 million.

How does BYC impact potential suitors?"

Rumors: Josh Smith and BYC

I don't think we'll get Smith unless he takes less than Monta and AB.</div>

This about kills the W's chances then. No matter what, we'll be adding salary to the payroll and into the luxury tax. I doubt Cohan is willing to do that. I dislike the Magette signing a lot more if that's keeping us from watching Smith in a Warriors uni next year.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (jason voorhees @ Jul 30 2008, 02:28 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>If the W's are the Western team in a S&T, then there is a hangup with it according to Hoopsworld.com:
"Josh Smith: No resolution yet in Atlanta. Josh Smith remains a restricted free agent and to date it doesn't appear the Hawks are willing to pay him the going rate - at least based on the numbers received by players like Monta Ellis, Andris Biedrins and Emeka Okafor ($10-12 million a season).

The question remains, does Smith accept the team's qualifying offer of $3.2 million and look to leave as an unrestricted free agent next year? Or can the Hawks find a satisfactory sign-and-trade for the talented forward?

One hitch in any Smith negotiation is the widely misunderstood Base Year Compensation (BYC) clause that limits Atlanta's ability to trade him.

Assuming a team is over the salary cap, a team can take in more salary than they send out only if it comes within 125% + $100k of the incoming figure. In other words if a team is sending out a player making $10 million, they can take in as much as $12.6 million but no more. (Note: This doesn't apply for trade exceptions.)

Any raise over 20% makes a player BYC, meaning the team sending out the player is only credited for half of the player's salary (or their prior year's compensation, whichever is greater). That means if Smith signed a contract starting at $10 million, the league would consider the Hawks' outgoing number as $5 million. Factoring in the 125% + $100k cushion, the most they would be able to take in for Smith would be $6.35 million.

How does BYC impact potential suitors?"

Rumors: Josh Smith and BYC

I don't think we'll get Smith unless he takes less than Monta and AB.</div>


Can you include cash in those figures? If so this might work:

Al/Wright/Beli + 2M cash Total $ out- 14.5M
for
Smith/Speedy Total $ in- 17.7 assuming Smith signs for 12M this year

14.5*1.25 +100K= 18.2M

Even with Atl getting only half credit for Smith their numbers also work
11.7*1.25 +100K= 15.6


That would get us back a good backup PG who is an expiring contract next year. The problem is that it will leave the W's about 1M over luxury tax.





I still don't want to trade away Wright but it may still be possible.

 

BYC unfortunately doesn't work like that. When a team takes in a BYC player, it has to match salaries to the non-BYC amount plus or minus 25%. This in practical terms, what it does is make trades to teams over the cap require the help of another team, preferably under the cap. It can work without the help of another team, but there would have to be a lot of salary.

Edit: to be more clear, only salaries. Cash doesn't count, it's only to entice teams to accept trades.
Edit2: This would cost the Warriors at least $2.5 to $5 million in luxury tax due to the extra salary we'd have to take in (either Pachulia or Claxton). Smith has to start at $11-12 million as well for this to work mathematically. We could probably cut some guys, maybe trade Perovic, if we found a taker elsewhere or in this trade.

 

I hope this thing still has legs.

Why? I dunno. I guess I'm spoiled. GS has had so much action this offseason, I can't take a few days on the quiet front. I need some more Golden State rumors!

 

It's pretty clear that this was a rumor from the start, but hey, anything could happen. At least we got to think about it, go over the logistics to see it was possible, and do a little fantasy-trade dreaming.

If Mullin was really serious about doing this trade, he would not have signed Maggette so that he'd have the salary flexibility, instead of now having to convince Cohan to dip into luxury tax territory.

 

What do you guys think Josh Smith will provide for us? Is it clearly an upside thing? I'm not so sure about his ability to create shots or shoot that well for that matter. He does have a Jrich + Gerald Wallace type of appeal, though. Like if he were to block a huge shot or throw down a huge dunk in traffic for us, it would get the Warriors fans up on their feet. He's closer to putting up Shawn Marion type stats, but I'm not convinced his game works in the halfcourt.

What we need is some balance of halfcourt guys that can also run, shoot, put the ball on the floor + support a prototypical 4 or 5 man. And to support that 4/5 position we utilize all-around guards and swingmen who can go inside and out. Mags comes to mind, Ricky Davis comes to mind, Brandon Roy comes to mind, Ray Allen and so forth. So I guess I'm thinking small forwards that can play some guard are the best types to get and support a star big man. Too bad we couldn't get Paul Pierce when he could have been possible trade bait in those awful celtics years. Beans at center could work if they just bulk him up 250 so he can play his physical type of game while being quick enough to beat other centers in the pick and roll. If Wright or Randolph are star forwards that can rebound and get inside, then that's one step closer to getting the starting 5 + bench that can compete for a playoff berth.

We could control the tempo this time (inside and out) while avoiding burnout at the 3/4's season mark! Defensively, we have to trust that Marco, Wright, and Ellis can keep improving their defensive ability. Plus, Randolph could be a nice defensive player for a rookie if he gets playing time. Mags is not a defender but the Spurs interest in him has me thinking he can't be that bad. What he is was just full prone and probably as a result of being aggressive, overly energetic, and just too slow laterally. Small forward he should be able to hack it defensively instead of shooting guard. Plus, what is he? 28? That guy should be in his prime. He will kick some serious ass for us in a halfcourt situation.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Custodianrules2 @ Aug 2 2008, 02:27 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>What do you guys think Josh Smith will provide for us? Is it clearly an upside thing? I'm not so sure about his ability to create shots or shoot that well for that matter. He does have a Jrich + Gerald Wallace type of appeal, though. Like if he were to block a huge shot or throw down a huge dunk in traffic for us, it would get the Warriors fans up on their feet. He's closer to putting up Shawn Marion type stats, but I'm not convinced his game works in the halfcourt.</div>

It's upside, but even with where he is today, Smith is a great fit for the Warriors. Smith is more of a forward than a wing player in his game, but has the speed and quickness of a guard. Putting him at power forward makes sense because giving away Harrington, we'd want to stick someone at that position. He's bulked up since coming into the league, originally being listed at 6'8" 220, he's now listed at 6'9", 235, basically the same as Jamison or Odom, who in today's game are not really tweeners either, but also forwards. Basically you can't compare him to most of the guys you're also taking about, because in my eyes, he's not a guard.

As to his strengths, he's a great shot blocker and help defender, is quick enough to get steals and deflections in the lane, and is a good rebounder, especially offensively. Since he's very fast and extremely quick, not only in getting down the floor but elevating to block shots or rebound or make shots, he basically can come out of nowhere and surprise players on both offense and defense. He gets to the line and has a decent inside game, while not a back to the basket guy, he can make a close hook shot or often uses his athleticism to get right to the rim. He's also a decent passer.

On the negative side, it's true that he doesn't have a polished game in the half court. His outside shot is shaky but he takes it too often, he commits many fouls and like most players who focus on shot blocking, he isn't always in the right spot to box out his man. He's got absolutely no handle, and thus cannot create his own shot if he's got someone faster guarding him. His free throw shooting is medicore. However, these weaknesses sound like most forwards, and if he keeps tailoring his game to the inside where most of his strengths lie, and sticks to playing off the ball or plays with a great playmaker, he'll end up putting up a ton of numbers without having many plays run for him. Plus, he's 22. But I only mention that after looking at all his strengths, and don't consider him to be just a "potential" or upside player, because I think he's fulfilled a lot of his potential already, since most of his game is wisely based around his size, speed, and athleticism. The only things I could see him really improving is focusing more on the interior, working more on his free throws and midrange game, and continuing to work on defense.

 

Check it out:

[video=youtube;ocaatPvI90k]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ocaatPvI90k"]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ocaatPvI90k[/video]

This one...oh my... [video=youtube;0y13mWZG1jY]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0y13mWZG1jY&feature=related[/video]

Uh... [video=youtube;QJALJjxbJYo]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJALJjxbJYo&feature=related[/video]

Watch the end of that last one, where they show it from the side view -- that's just not right...