RCP shows McCain up by 1.5 in Ohio, 0.5 in Colorado site of Democratic convention, 0.6 in Virginia the home of Tim Kaine, 1.3 in Indiana home of Evan Bayh, and 2.6 in Florida. Obama is up 3.2 points in Michigan (Homestate of Mitt Romney), 2.6 in Minnesota site of GOP convention and Tim Pawlenty's state. If you don't include toss-up states like Indiana, Obama leads 228-178. If you include all the toss up states, McCain wins it 274-264. The momentum is in McCain's favor once again. Probably not for long since the Democratic convention starts next week, but it's very clear that this won't be a blowout as previously predicted. Also, some may say that picking a VP won't have much affect on the outcome of that state in the election, but since several of these battleground states boast VP candidates, like Pawlenty, Kaine, and Bayh, it's not out of the question that one of these states could swing to the other side or become more solid for one candidate due to their choice, especially since Pawlenty, Bayh, and Kaine have been pretty popular.
RCP has Obama up or tied in Ohio's last two polls. Here's an indicator of their momentum: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/charts.html
That's right, the up 1.5 poll was taken before the one that showed them both tied. But Rasmussen had McCain up by 10, so that's why over two months the average is up by McCain up by a little over 1. BTW, before the McCain +10, the same pollsters that show them tied now had Obama up by 8, if that's any indication of where the momentum in Ohio is going.
Ohio is a true toss-up state, it doesn't lean anywhere right now imo. McCain builds this type of momentum, and it always seems to plateau at a certain point as far as the popular vote or electoral college is concerned (look at the link I provided for example). This happened before after the Wright crisis.
McCain's not supposed to be in this race, period. Just the fact that he's leading in some of these polls is pretty amazing. And his momentum is on the upspring, at least until next week. From June to July to August, Obama's lead in that poll has disappeared, from 11 points to 8 points to a tie. What is going to stop him from building a lead in that poll?
Actually, McCain was doing better during the end of that whole Democratic primary fiasco. What i said was quite true and he's always been close, it is just that I don't see Barry losing.
Where is the ten point lead in that chart? I know some polls showed that, but RCP supposedly averages various polls out. Obama has always been a certain range ahead of McCain, it was 2.3% a few weeks ago, now it has grown again.
I said in that poll, not in that chart. PPP (D) 06/14 - 06/15 733 LV 39 50 Obama +11 PPP (D) 07/17 - 07/20 1058 LV 40 48 Obama +8 PPP (D) 08/12 - 08/14 950 LV 45 45 Tie
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/charts.html August 4 to now shows the fluctuating nature of polling, right? I don't think McCain will ever really build on any lead though.
The Ohio polls are part of my larger argument that McCain plateaus at a certain point. He never really builds on his momentum, but the polls are always close. Until I see him ahead in various polls in Ohio I don't know why I should give it to him. The most recent data collected shows a tied nature. The toss-up electoral college RCP uses is flawed in my personal opinion.
Gallup, Rasmussen, and the LA times still has him ahead. Ohio is still quite unsure though, Rasmussen had McCain +10 on July 21, now it is +5. The other two Ohio polls gave Barry the edge before so I think that might remain the same. As of now I think Barry will almost choke, and pull off a very small electoral college win.
Forget about Ohio and Florida. Obama isn't going to lose the election even if he loses both and I think he probably will. This is Obama's plan to be President of the United States. Hang onto the Kerry states from 04 and he's sitting in great shape. Pick off the following states that were held but G.W. Bush. Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Virginia. Give him all those states. That's 39 electoral votes right now. Even if he loses Michigan which was a Kerry state. Obama stands at 274 electoral votes and wins the election. If he wins Michigan and loses Penn then he's at 270 votes which is enough to win. If he wins both and all those then it's a landslide. If he does hang onto both then McCain cannot afford to lose Virginia or Colorado. If he does then it's over unless he somehow picks off New Mexico and Nevada or even New Hampshire which is going to be tough for him in my opinion. I think Iowa is all but going blue this year too so I think that's also going to be really tough for McCain to win the presidency if he loses Virginia and/or Colorado. Now here is how Ohio and Florida become big this year Obama cannot afford to lose Michigan and Pennsylvania. He can still win if he loses one but losing both would hurt. Those were Kerry states from 04. If he loses both then he's going to have to take either Florida or Ohio to win which is possible from the polling I've seen but also going to be very tough in my opinion and I think unlikely. Either way I think we're in for another close race.
http://electoral-vote.com/ Obama 269, McCain 256, 13 EVs up for grabs. Obama is NOT going to win Nevada, regardless of the polls saying it's close now. Which puts the electoral vote (using porky's figuring) exactly where it was in 2000 when Bush won.
I am kind of amazed that you guys are even giving any creedence to these pre election polls, other than it gives us something to write about. Polls are garbage, in my opinion.
Why not play football games without a scoreboard and clock. Just tell people after the game's over who won and what the score was!
