McCain Narrowly Leads 274-264 in Mid-September

Денг Гордон · Sep 16, 2008

Due to McCain's bounce in the polls post-convention, our new list of battleground states has changed. According to our current projections, John McCain would win 274-264.

This is different from the pie chart you see in the top left of the site, which averages the electoral vote based on simulation runs. This mid-month update simply gives each state's EVs in full to our projected winner, and we add the totals. It's essentially the same split as the Bush-Kerry race, with Iowa flipped from the Republican column to the penumbra zone for Obama, and a narrow win for Obama in New Mexico.

With Colorado sitting at McCain by 0.3%, any tiny movement and a 9-EV flip would change the winner of the 2008 presidential race. As we leave Las Vegas today for Gallup, New Mexico, we're going from the frying pan into the fire of the ground game battle.

One of the notable aspects of our Penumbra tables below is that the national tracking polls are having a large undue influence on states that aren't getting polled as much. Notice that California, Illinois and Massachusetts have entered our Obama Penumbra chart, but also notice on the righthand column of our individual state polling that it's not because Obama's getting poor polling in these states. For example, our projection model shows Obama winning California by 6.9% but that no individual poll has ever been that low, and that nearly all CA polls show double digits.

For McCain's Penumbra states, you'll notice a lot of "former" battleground states in this column, some of which we believe could still be battlegrounds and will re-tighten after McCain's post-convention bounce fades and the debates begin.

Overall, the national tracking polls have had a more distorted effect on states that don't get polled as often. Colorado, by contrast, has barely moved because it does. In fact, Colorado and Ohio were the states which flipped since our last update in Mid-August. Each moved fewer than three points, but that changes our winner-take-all projection.
Click to expand...

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/538s-battlegrounds-as-of-mid-september.html

CelticKing · Sep 16, 2008

Hoping it stays the same for McCain.

We gotta win and put country first.

Real · Sep 16, 2008

Minnesota is another state to keep an eye on.

In early September CNN had Obama +12, but the most recent Star-Tribune poll showed them tied.

I'd be curious to see what the polls will show in two weeks.

Денг Гордон · Sep 16, 2008

Star Tribune's poll has a lot of pollster induced error.

CNN had Obama at 51 in their last poll, SurveyUSA at 49, and Rasmussen at 49. I can't see McCain winning a state where Obama is consistently polling around 50%. And if he does, it won't be important, because Obama will have already lost the election from other states.

Denny Crane · Sep 16, 2008

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Strong Republican
Barack Obama: 39%
John McCain: 58%
Source: Rasmussen (Sep 10)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 29% Bush 69%
2000: Gore 28% Bush 69%
1996: Clinton 37% Dole 50%
1992: Clinton 34% Bush 40%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Wisconsin (10 EVs)
Weak Democrat
Barack Obama: 46%
John McCain: 41%
Source: Rasmussen+Wisconsin (Aug 05)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 50% Bush 49%
2000: Gore 49% Bush 48%
1996: Clinton 49% Dole 39%
1992: Clinton 41% Bush 37%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">West Virginia (5 EVs)
Weak Republican
Barack Obama: 39%
John McCain: 44%
Source: Mark Blankenship (Sep 08)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 43% Bush 56%
2000: Gore 46% Bush 52%
1996: Clinton 52% Dole 37%
1992: Clinton 48% Bush 35%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Washington (11 EVs)
Barely Democrat
Barack Obama: 48%
John McCain: 44%
Source: Rasmussen+Elway Pol+SurveyUSA (Sep 10)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 53% Bush 46%
2000: Gore 50% Bush 45%
1996: Clinton 50% Dole 37%
1992: Clinton 43% Bush 32%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Virginia (13 EVs)
Tied
Barack Obama: 48%
John McCain: 48%
Source: Rasmussen+SurveyUSA+Opinion R (Sep 14)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 45% Bush 54%
2000: Gore 45% Bush 53%
1996: Clinton 45% Dole 47%
1992: Clinton 41% Bush 45%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Vermont (3 EVs)
Strong Democrat
Barack Obama: 63%
John McCain: 29%
Source: SurveyUSA (Feb 28)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 59% Bush 39%
2000: Gore 51% Bush 41%
1996: Clinton 53% Dole 31%
1992: Clinton 46% Bush 30%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Vermont (3 EVs)
Strong Democrat
Barack Obama: 63%
John McCain: 29%
Source: SurveyUSA (Feb 28)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 59% Bush 39%
2000: Gore 51% Bush 41%
1996: Clinton 53% Dole 31%
1992: Clinton 46% Bush 30%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Utah (5 EVs)
Strong Republican
Barack Obama: 28%
John McCain: 63%
Source: Rasmussen+Dan Jones (Sep 10)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 26% Bush 71%
2000: Gore 27% Bush 67%
1996: Clinton 33% Dole 54%
1992: Clinton 25% Bush 43%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Texas (34 EVs)
Weak Republican
Barack Obama: 41%
John McCain: 50%
Source: Rasmussen (Aug 21)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 38% Bush 61%
2000: Gore 38% Bush 59%
1996: Clinton 44% Dole 49%
1992: Clinton 37% Bush 41%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Tennessee (11 EVs)
Strong Republican
Barack Obama: 32%
John McCain: 56%
Source: Rasmussen (Aug 20)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 43% Bush 57%
2000: Gore 47% Bush 51%
1996: Clinton 48% Dole 46%
1992: Clinton 47% Bush 42%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">South Dakota (3 EVs)
Strong Republican
Barack Obama: 37%
John McCain: 54%
Source: Rasmussen (Sep 09)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 38% Bush 60%
2000: Gore 38% Bush 60%
1996: Clinton 43% Dole 47%
1992: Clinton 37% Bush 41%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">South Carolina (8 EVs)
Strong Republican
Barack Obama: 40%
John McCain: 53%
Source: Research 2000 (Jul 23)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 41% Bush 58%
2000: Gore 41% Bush 57%
1996: Clinton 44% Dole 50%
1992: Clinton 43% Bush 47%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Rhode Island (4 EVs)
Strong Democrat
Barack Obama: 51%
John McCain: 30%
Source: Brown U. (Aug 20)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 60% Bush 39%
2000: Gore 61% Bush 32%
1996: Clinton 60% Dole 27%
1992: Clinton 47% Bush 29%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Rhode Island (4 EVs)
Strong Democrat
Barack Obama: 51%
John McCain: 30%
Source: Brown U. (Aug 20)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 60% Bush 39%
2000: Gore 61% Bush 32%
1996: Clinton 60% Dole 27%
1992: Clinton 47% Bush 29%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Pennsylvania (21 EVs)
Tied
Barack Obama: 47%
John McCain: 47%
Source: Rasmussen (Sep 14)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 51% Bush 49%
2000: Gore 51% Bush 46%
1996: Clinton 49% Dole 40%
1992: Clinton 45% Bush 36%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Oregon (7 EVs)
Weak Democrat
Barack Obama: 48%
John McCain: 41%
Source: Rasmussen+SurveyUSA (Aug 07)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 52% Bush 48%
2000: Gore 47% Bush 46%
1996: Clinton 47% Dole 39%
1992: Clinton 43% Bush 33%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Oklahoma (7 EVs)
Strong Republican
Barack Obama: 32%
John McCain: 64%
Source: Rasmussen+SurveyUSA (Sep 11)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 34% Bush 66%
2000: Gore 38% Bush 60%
1996: Clinton 40% Dole 48%
1992: Clinton 34% Bush 43%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Ohio (20 EVs)
Barely Republican
Barack Obama: 45%
John McCain: 48%
Source: Five polls (Sep 14)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 49% Bush 51%
2000: Gore 46% Bush 50%
1996: Clinton 47% Dole 41%
1992: Clinton 40% Bush 38%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">North Dakota (3 EVs)
Strong Republican
Barack Obama: 41%
John McCain: 55%
Source: Rasmussen (Sep 08)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 36% Bush 63%
2000: Gore 33% Bush 61%
1996: Clinton 40% Dole 47%
1992: Clinton 32% Bush 44%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">North Carolina (15 EVs)
Strong Republican
Barack Obama: 38%
John McCain: 57%
Source: Research +SurveyUSA (Sep 10)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 44% Bush 56%
2000: Gore 43% Bush 56%
1996: Clinton 44% Dole 49%
1992: Clinton 42% Bush 43%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">New York (31 EVs)
Weak Democrat
Barack Obama: 46%
John McCain: 41%
Source: Siena Coll. (Sep 10)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 58% Bush 41%
2000: Gore 60% Bush 35%
1996: Clinton 58% Dole 30%
1992: Clinton 47% Bush 29%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">New Mexico (5 EVs)
Barely Republican
Barack Obama: 47%
John McCain: 49%
Source: Rasmussen (Sep 08)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 49% Bush 50%
2000: Gore 48% Bush 47%
1996: Clinton 49% Dole 42%
1992: Clinton 46% Bush 37%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">New Jersey (15 EVs)
Weak Democrat
Barack Obama: 48%
John McCain: 42%
Source: Research +Marist Co+Fairleigh (Sep 11)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 53% Bush 47%
2000: Gore 56% Bush 40%
1996: Clinton 54% Dole 36%
1992: Clinton 43% Bush 41%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">New Jersey (15 EVs)
Weak Democrat
Barack Obama: 48%
John McCain: 42%
Source: Research +Marist Co+Fairleigh (Sep 11)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 53% Bush 47%
2000: Gore 56% Bush 40%
1996: Clinton 54% Dole 36%
1992: Clinton 43% Bush 41%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">New Hampshire (4 EVs)
Weak Democrat
Barack Obama: 51%
John McCain: 45%
Source: Opinion Research (Sep 09)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 50% Bush 49%
2000: Gore 47% Bush 48%
1996: Clinton 50% Dole 40%
1992: Clinton 39% Bush 38%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">New Hampshire (4 EVs)
Weak Democrat
Barack Obama: 51%
John McCain: 45%
Source: Opinion Research (Sep 09)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 50% Bush 49%
2000: Gore 47% Bush 48%
1996: Clinton 50% Dole 40%
1992: Clinton 39% Bush 38%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Nevada (5 EVs)
Barely Republican
Barack Obama: 46%
John McCain: 48%
Source: Rasmussen+Insider A (Sep 11)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 48% Bush 51%
2000: Gore 46% Bush 50%
1996: Clinton 44% Dole 43%
1992: Clinton 37% Bush 35%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Nebraska (5 EVs)
Strong Republican
Barack Obama: 32%
John McCain: 50%
Source: Rasmussen (Jul 28)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 32% Bush 67%
2000: Gore 33% Bush 62%
1996: Clinton 35% Dole 54%
1992: Clinton 29% Bush 47%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Montana (3 EVs)
Strong Republican
Barack Obama: 42%
John McCain: 53%
Source: Rasmussen (Sep 08)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 39% Bush 59%
2000: Gore 33% Bush 58%
1996: Clinton 41% Dole 44%
1992: Clinton 38% Bush 35%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Missouri (11 EVs)
Weak Republican
Barack Obama: 46%
John McCain: 51%
Source: Rasmussen+Opinion R (Sep 11)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 46% Bush 53%
2000: Gore 47% Bush 50%
1996: Clinton 48% Dole 41%
1992: Clinton 44% Bush 34%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Mississippi (6 EVs)
Strong Republican
Barack Obama: 39%
John McCain: 52%
Source: Research 2000 (Sep 10)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 40% Bush 60%
2000: Gore 41% Bush 58%
1996: Clinton 44% Dole 49%
1992: Clinton 41% Bush 50%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Minnesota (10 EVs)
Barely Democrat
Barack Obama: 47%
John McCain: 46%
Source: Princeton+SurveyUSA (Sep 12)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 51% Bush 48%
2000: Gore 48% Bush 46%
1996: Clinton 51% Dole 35%
1992: Clinton 44% Bush 32%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Michigan (17 EVs)
Barely Democrat
Barack Obama: 48%
John McCain: 45%
Source: Rasmussen+Insider A+Opinion R (Sep 10)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 51% Bush 48%
2000: Gore 51% Bush 46%
1996: Clinton 52% Dole 39%
1992: Clinton 44% Bush 36%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Massachusetts (12 EVs)
Strong Democrat
Barack Obama: 49%
John McCain: 37%
Source: Rasmussen+Suffolk U (Aug 05)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 62% Bush 37%
2000: Gore 60% Bush 33%
1996: Clinton 62% Dole 28%
1992: Clinton 48% Bush 29%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Massachusetts (12 EVs)
Strong Democrat
Barack Obama: 49%
John McCain: 37%
Source: Rasmussen+Suffolk U (Aug 05)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 62% Bush 37%
2000: Gore 60% Bush 33%
1996: Clinton 62% Dole 28%
1992: Clinton 48% Bush 29%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Maryland (10 EVs)
Strong Democrat
Barack Obama: 52%
John McCain: 38%
Source: Gonzales Research (Sep 05)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 56% Bush 43%
2000: Gore 57% Bush 40%
1996: Clinton 54% Dole 38%
1992: Clinton 50% Bush 36%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Maryland (10 EVs)
Strong Democrat
Barack Obama: 52%
John McCain: 38%
Source: Gonzales Research (Sep 05)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 56% Bush 43%
2000: Gore 57% Bush 40%
1996: Clinton 54% Dole 38%
1992: Clinton 50% Bush 36%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Maine (4 EVs)
Strong Democrat
Barack Obama: 52%
John McCain: 38%
Source: Research 2000 (Sep 10)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 53% Bush 45%
2000: Gore 49% Bush 44%
1996: Clinton 52% Dole 31%
1992: Clinton 39% Bush 30%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Louisiana (9 EVs)
Strong Republican
Barack Obama: 38%
John McCain: 55%
Source: Rasmussen (Aug 17)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 42% Bush 57%
2000: Gore 45% Bush 53%
1996: Clinton 52% Dole 40%
1992: Clinton 46% Bush 41%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Kentucky (8 EVs)
Strong Republican
Barack Obama: 37%
John McCain: 55%
Source: SurveyUSA (Aug 11)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 40% Bush 60%
2000: Gore 41% Bush 56%
1996: Clinton 46% Dole 45%
1992: Clinton 45% Bush 41%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Kansas (6 EVs)
Strong Republican
Barack Obama: 35%
John McCain: 58%
Source: SurveyUSA (Aug 20)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 37% Bush 62%
2000: Gore 37% Bush 58%
1996: Clinton 36% Dole 54%
1992: Clinton 34% Bush 39%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Iowa (7 EVs)
Strong Democrat
Barack Obama: 52%
John McCain: 40%
Source: Selzer (Sep 10)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 49% Bush 50%
2000: Gore 49% Bush 48%
1996: Clinton 50% Dole 40%
1992: Clinton 43% Bush 37%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Indiana (11 EVs)
Barely Republican
Barack Obama: 43%
John McCain: 45%
Source: Howey (Aug 30)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 39% Bush 60%
2000: Gore 41% Bush 57%
1996: Clinton 42% Dole 47%
1992: Clinton 37% Bush 43%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Illinois (21 EVs)
Strong Democrat
Barack Obama: 53%
John McCain: 38%
Source: Rasmussen (Aug 12)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 55% Bush 45%
2000: Gore 55% Bush 43%
1996: Clinton 54% Dole 37%
1992: Clinton 49% Bush 34%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Idaho (4 EVs)
Strong Republican
Barack Obama: 29%
John McCain: 68%
Source: Rasmussen (Sep 09)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 30% Bush 69%
2000: Gore 28% Bush 67%
1996: Clinton 34% Dole 52%
1992: Clinton 28% Bush 42%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Hawaii (4 EVs)
Strong Democrat
Barack Obama: 61%
John McCain: 31%
Source: SurveyUSA (Feb 28)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 54% Bush 45%
2000: Gore 56% Bush 38%
1996: Clinton 57% Dole 32%
1992: Clinton 48% Bush 37%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Georgia (15 EVs)
Strong Republican
Barack Obama: 38%
John McCain: 56%
Source: Insider Advantage (Sep 10)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 41% Bush 58%
2000: Gore 43% Bush 55%
1996: Clinton 46% Dole 47%
1992: Clinton 44% Bush 43%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Florida (27 EVs)
Weak Republican
Barack Obama: 43%
John McCain: 50%
Source: Rasmussen+Insider A (Sep 14)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 47% Bush 52%
2000: Gore 48% Bush 49%
1996: Clinton 48% Dole 42%
1992: Clinton 39% Bush 41%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Delaware (3 EVs)
Strong Democrat
Barack Obama: 55%
John McCain: 43%
Source: Rasmussen (Sep 13)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 53% Bush 46%
2000: Gore 55% Bush 42%
1996: Clinton 52% Dole 37%
1992: Clinton 44% Bush 35%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Delaware (3 EVs)
Strong Democrat
Barack Obama: 55%
John McCain: 43%
Source: Rasmussen (Sep 13)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 53% Bush 46%
2000: Gore 55% Bush 42%
1996: Clinton 52% Dole 37%
1992: Clinton 44% Bush 35%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">D.C. (3 EVs)
Strong Democrat
Barack Obama: 90%
John McCain: 9%
Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 90% Bush 9%
2000: Gore 86% Bush 9%
1996: Clinton 85% Dole 9%
1992: Clinton 85% Bush 9%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">D.C. (3 EVs)
Strong Democrat
Barack Obama: 90%
John McCain: 9%
Source: Election 2004 (Jan 01)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 90% Bush 9%
2000: Gore 86% Bush 9%
1996: Clinton 85% Dole 9%
1992: Clinton 85% Bush 9%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Connecticut (7 EVs)
Strong Democrat
Barack Obama: 51%
John McCain: 36%
Source: Rasmussen (Jul 31)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 54% Bush 44%
2000: Gore 56% Bush 38%
1996: Clinton 53% Dole 35%
1992: Clinton 42% Bush 36%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Connecticut (7 EVs)
Strong Democrat
Barack Obama: 51%
John McCain: 36%
Source: Rasmussen (Jul 31)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 54% Bush 44%
2000: Gore 56% Bush 38%
1996: Clinton 53% Dole 35%
1992: Clinton 42% Bush 36%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Colorado (9 EVs)
Barely Democrat
Barack Obama: 48%
John McCain: 47%
Source: Rasmussen+Insider A (Sep 14)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 47% Bush 52%
2000: Gore 42% Bush 51%
1996: Clinton 44% Dole 46%
1992: Clinton 40% Bush 36%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">California (55 EVs)
Strong Democrat
Barack Obama: 50%
John McCain: 38%
Source: Rasmussen+Pub. Poli (Aug 20)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 55% Bush 44%
2000: Gore 53% Bush 42%
1996: Clinton 51% Dole 38%
1992: Clinton 46% Bush 33%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Arkansas (6 EVs)
Strong Republican
Barack Obama: 37%
John McCain: 47%
Source: Rasmussen (Jul 14)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 45% Bush 54%
2000: Gore 46% Bush 51%
1996: Clinton 54% Dole 37%
1992: Clinton 53% Bush 36%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Arizona (10 EVs)
Weak Republican
Barack Obama: 36%
John McCain: 44%
Source: Arizona S+Mason (Aug 16)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 45% Bush 55%
2000: Gore 45% Bush 51%
1996: Clinton 47% Dole 44%
1992: Clinton 37% Bush 39%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Alaska (3 EVs)
Strong Republican
Barack Obama: 33%
John McCain: 64%
Source: Rasmussen (Sep 09)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 35% Bush 62%
2000: Gore 28% Bush 59%
1996: Clinton 33% Dole 51%
1992: Clinton 30% Bush 40%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<table bgcolor="#a83535" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="225"><tbody><tr><td><table border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td style="padding: 3px;" bgcolor="#f9fdc4">[FONT=arial,helvetica,sans-serif]<table width="100%"><tbody><tr><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Alabama (9 EVs)
Strong Republican
Barack Obama: 35%
John McCain: 55%
Source: Capital Survey (Sep 09)</td></tr><tr><td style="border-top: 2px solid rgb(168, 53, 53);" nowrap="nowrap" align="left"> 2004: Kerry 37% Bush 63%
2000: Gore 42% Bush 57%
1996: Clinton 43% Dole 50%
1992: Clinton 41% Bush 48%</td></tr></tbody></table>[/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>
<noscript> </noscript> </td>   <td width="60"> </td>  <td align="left" valign="top" width="210">  <table summary="">  <tbody><tr> <td class="ptr"> Senate map and races </td></tr> <tr> <td class="ptr"> Downloadable polling data </td></tr> <tr> <td class="ptr"> Previous report </td></tr> <tr> <td class="ptr"> Next report </td></tr> <tr> <td class="ptr"> This day in 2004</td> </tr> </tbody></table> 

 <table summary="Map legend" border="0">  <tbody><tr> <td> </td> <td> Strong Dem (133) </td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td> Weak Dem (67) </td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td> Barely Dem (47) </td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td> Exactly tied (34) </td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td> Barely GOP (41) </td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td> Weak GOP (87) </td> </tr> <tr> <td> </td> <td> Strong GOP (129) </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="tiny" colspan="2"> 270 Electoral votes needed to win </td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>