Magic Favored to Win South East Again

Shapecity · Sep 16, 2008

Stick Rashard Lewis at power forward and all your problems are solved. That was basically the tagline for last year's season. The team threw gobs of money at Rashard Lewis to be a big-time second scorer alongside Dwight Howard, but new head coach Stan Van Gundy had other ideas.

Van Gundy stuck Lewis at the 'four', spread out the scoring and let his team with very few frontcourt options play small. It allowed him to start Hedo Turkoglu at the small forward spot and become the team's primary playmaker and ball-handler. That solved the issue of this team being under the direction of a freshly re-signed point guard Jameer Nelson, who became a glorified ball boy bringing the ball up the court and allowing Turkoglu to initiate the offense. The combination of Lewis and Turkoglu also meant that the horribly thin shooting guard spot could be manned by a defensive-specialist so long as he had a three-point shot.

Most importantly, though, starting Rashard AND Turkoglu kept the complex task of creating an offense off the shoulders of Dwight Howard, allowing him to stay planted under the basket with his still very-much-in-development offensive game. He was basically asked to dunk the ball whenever he was in arm's reach of the basket, and suck in the defenses and kick the ball out to his shooters when he wasn't.

As a result of that strategy, the Magic shot 39% from three that year and won the Southeast Divison (good for the third seed in the playoffs). They managed to establish a direction for their team, they breezed through the first round of the playoffs and they got Turkoglu a Most Improved Player award for his increased role on the team.

All in all, it was a pretty successful season that was largely a result of starting Rashard Lewis as a power forward.

So what to do for an encore? Well, the team took to shoring up its weak shooting guard slot by signing Mickael Pietrus and drafting Courtney Lee. They added some useful depth at the point by signing free agent Anthony Johnson and they are welcoming back Tony Battie after he lost last season to injury.

However, the only thing that is going to put this team over Detroit or Boston is slippage from Detroit or Boston. The Magic are still ultra-thin up front behind Howard and whether they sign Adonal Foyle back or not, they still don't have a dependable option at the point night-in and night-out and Dwight Howard still has to round out his offensive game.

As much of a luxury as it was for Howard to be able to share the scoring burden on this team with Turkoglu and Lewis (all three were within 2.1 ppg of each other), at some point he is going to have to expand his offensive repertoire to more than just drop-step left and dunk. The inauguration of Patrick Ewing and Hakeem Olajuwon into the Basketball Hall of Fame last week was a clear reminder of what it takes to be a legendary big man in the NBA. It takes so much more than imposing size and strength; it takes skill.

Both of those players were thoroughly dominant on the defensive end of the floor and both averaged double-digit rebounds for their career. However, they were also both multi-faceted offensive players with great footwork and a devastating array of post-moves. For Howard to take that next step, he has to commit himself to rounding out his game and his overall skill level.

People like to compare him to Shaq but Shaq was a gifted passer as well as an intimidating physical presence. This summer at the Olympics, Howard's game showed its lack of refinement and it kept him on the bench for long stretches. For this team to take its next step, it needs its main cog to take his next step. As good as his running mates are, this team is only going to go as far as Howard will take them.

All that said, though, this team should still be a good bet to win their Division for a second consecutive year but if and when they run into Boston or Detroit in the post-season, it will most likely be more of the same there, too. This team, like Howard, is still young and developing, but last year's success is going to breed expectations for greater things and it doesn't look like that is what 2008-2009 has in store for the Magic. Another 50-win season, though, is nothing to scoff at, just so long as it comes as a result of some internal growth within the roster because that is where future successes are going to come from.

PROBABLE STARTING LINEUP

PG - Jameer Nelson
As nice as it is that they were able to reduce his role and responsibility so thoroughly last season, eventually this team is going to need a more dependable option at point guard. Nelson was rewarded with a fat extension last summer and his familiar inconsistencies during the ensuing season did little to justify it. He played only 28 minutes per game last year and managed only 11 points in that time. His assists were stuck at 5.6 per game compared against two turnovers, good for 47th in the league in assist-to-turnover ratio. He keeps talking up his game as under-respected, but it seems as though he doesn't realize that he needs to give people a reason to respect it.

SG - Mickael Pietrus
This was a very low-risk signing. It cost the Magic their entire mid-level exception, which stings a bit, but even if Pietrus can only reproduce the things he did in Golden State - three-point shooting and decent man-on defense - then he'll be no worse than what this team had last year in Mo Evans (albeit at a far higher price). That price, though, is an investment in the idea that Pietrus has only scratched the surface of his abilities as a two-way NBA player capable of being a big contributor in a team's starting lineup. The perception is that Warriors' coach Don Nelson held him back and now he's ready to break forth. If he can, it may allow for options for this team going forward because they could be facing a tough choice in the coming months regarding the next player on this list.

SF - Hedo Turkoglu
That tough choice comes down to the fact that Hedo, who'll turn 30 this season, is a free agent next summer. His breakout year was crucial to the Magic's success and no one in Orlando would deny that, but this team has a lot of coin invested in Howard and Lewis and has significant deals in place with Nelson and Pietrus behind them. If they are put in a position where it will take $10-million-plus per season over four or five years to keep him then the Magic could be forced to let him walk. After all, they do have another versatile 6'10" forward on the roster that could slide into this place. However, they may also decide that the potential backslide the team could face as a result of losing Hedo is a stiffer price to pay than a renegotiated salary. If this team thinks he'll be too rich for their blood, then look for the Magic to move him at the deadline. If he's still on the team come March, they're likely invested in him long-term.

PF - Rashard Lewis
While he wasn't quite the dominant second-scorer this team was looking for to line-up with Howard, it benefitted him that he wasn't really asked to be. He was thrown out as part of a three-man frontcourt tasked with scoring roughly sixty points per night for the Magic. His skills were utilized and his weaknesses were more or less negligible. Plus, not enough credit was thrown his way for having to guard a new power forward each night. Going from guarding Ron Artest and Richard Jefferson to guarding Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett is quite an adjustment and yet Lewis didn't let up. Is he the team's long-term option at the position? That's for the team to decide. If he has to be, though, he showed last year that he'd be more than capable of holding down the fort.

C - Dwight Howard
Let's make one thing clear: Howard doesn't need to score more, he just needs to be able to score in more ways. That's basically the rap on Dwight at this point in this career. As his team starts to mature and starts to have real championship aspirations, they are going to have to be able to get Howard the ball and watch him dominate opposing frontcourts. Right now, a swift and committed double-team is too effective against his limited attack. When the time comes and this team is looking at a matter of plays standing between them and a Finals berth or a championship, they are going to need Howard to be a dependable two-points. That, of course, also means that he'll have to learn to hit his free throws because unless he expects to wake up with Kobe or Wade on his team, his 60% output won't get it done. Howard's growth has been rapid, though, so it is most likely a case of when, not if, he reaches the highest stratospheres of his ability.
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Source: TSN

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Magic Favored to Win South East Again

Shapecity S2/JBB Teamster Staff Member Administrator

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Magic Favored to Win South East Again

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