There was bad news and good news yesterday regarding Jays starter Shaun Marcum's impending Tommy John surgery. The bad news was both jarring and devastating for a Jays front office that had reasonable hopes of contending in '09. The good news stems from the long-term probability of Marcum's eventual return to health. Consider the minimum rehab time for this type of surgery – technically "ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction" – that originally involved a tendon transfer from opposite forearm to injured elbow is 12 months. On the other hand, with improvement in the procedure, the success rate for returning effectively is 85-90 per cent. Richard Griffin Why do we hear so much about this type of operation? When was it first used? On July 17, 1974, Dodgers' left-hander Tommy John was pitching to Expos first baseman Hal Breeden at Dodger Stadium. His 1-1 pitch went to the backstop and he was in pain. Team physician, Dr. Frank Jobe, was in the stands. He knew what had happened and that nobody had ever come back from the type of elbow blowout. A determined John insisted that Dr. Jobe try anything to get him back on the field and pitching again. He invented a new procedure. At the time, Dr. Jobe estimated a 1 per cent chance of success. After missing an entire season in rehab, John returned in 1976 to go 10-10 with a 3.09 ERA, then played another 13 seasons, compiling an amazing 164 victories post-surgery. Others to return with some degree of success include Chris Carpenter, Ryan Dempster, Jimmy Key, Mariano Rivera, Kenny Rogers, Kerry Wood and A.J. Burnett. Which brings us into focus on more Jays bad news. Barring some sort of Mother Teresa-type change of heart by Burnett, he is as good as gone to free agency come November. The Jays have already said they will not get into a bidding war even with the loss of Marcum and with Dustin McGowan out at least until May. The Marcum injury did not change the Jays' thought process with regard to bumping up any A.J. offer. The Star
