How the Cavs compare: Orlando Magic

bbwchingy0007 · Sep 23, 2008

Cavalier Attitude said:

In the second installment of “How the Cavs Compare,” I will be taking a look at another Eastern Conference playoff team from a year ago, the Orlando Magic.

A 52-30 team last season, the Magic went out in the off-season in order to further improve their chances of playing for a championship. Do they have what it takes to overtake the Cavs again this year during the regular season, or will they return to form after a fluky year?

Last season, the Magic had the third best record in the East and defeated next week’s feature, the Toronto Raptors, in five games. This win put the Magic into the second round of the playoffs for the first time since Shaq led them to the Eastern Conference finals in 1996.

The only difference this time is that their dominant big man is named Dwight Howard.

By moving into the second round, the Magic had the opportunity to dethrone the quasi-dynasty of the Detroit Pistons. The Pistons had other ideas, however, as they looked to push the up-and-coming Magic to the side and play in their sixth straight Eastern Conference finals.

The Magic lost Game One but had the Pistons all but beat in Game Two in Detroit until a controversial clock ruling eventually led to a 2-0 lead for Detroit. In Game Three, the Magic bounced back at home and set themselves up to tie the series with a Game Four win. However, they were not able to seal the deal and lost, 90-89, in Game Four.

Detroit proceeded to take Game Five and the series 4 games to 1. As much of a disappointment as this was, especially with Pistons PG Chauncy Billups going down in Game Three, the Magic still made a nice showing last season. Had either Games Two or Four gone their way, it would have been much more of a series.

Now fast forward to draft day where the Magic were primed to make their first addition of the off-season with the 22nd pick. Instead of going with a big man to play along side Dwight Howard in the future, they went with Courtney Lee, SG from Western Kentucky. Lee was one of the most NBA ready players in the draft and only the third college senior taken off the board.

Lee was a prolific scorer in the college ranks averaging 20 ppg his senior season. However, his level of competition wasn’t nearly as high as some of the other NCAA 20 ppg guys. Another knock on Lee is his lack of NBA size and athleticism. He does not currently posses the ball handling or distribution skills to play the point in the NBA and at 6′4″ is similar in size to Delonte West.

His key to PT will be his perimeter scoring, his best asset in the NBA game. However, I can’t help but notice the similarities between him and the Magic’s 1st round pick in 2006, J.J. Redick. Both have the same negatives in size and athleticism, and neither currently possess the skills to run the point. In fact, the biggest difference is that Redick had his success in a powerhouse conference instead of the lowly Sun Belt. As far as I am concerned, Redick is a bust in the NBA, and unless Lee’s PG skills really progress, he could be in the same boat.

After the draft, the Magic made another big splash in the free agency market with the signing of Golden State SF Mikael Pietrus. Pietrus has averaged 8.6 ppg over his five-year career with solid but certainly not starters’ minutes. As far as his efficiency is concerned, Pietrus has shot 44% from the floor, 35% from 3-point range, and 66% from the line. The first two are slightly below average, and the free throw shooting is significantly below average.

The biggest addition that Pietrus will bring to this team, however, is his defense. The Magic were good defensively during the regular season, ranking 10th in the NBA in points allowed per game. However, during the playoffs when all the other teams ratcheted up the D, theirs remained pretty much the same ranking them still as an average team defensivley.

The Magic can take the next step by adding a player that they can use in a Bruce Bowen-type of role to get a few points a game while defending the opponents star players such as Kobe and LeBron. However, adding Pietrus is simply not enough for them to improve their defense, it must also come within from players like Rashard Lewis and of course Dwight Howard.

As far as the other off-season moves are concerned, the Magic lost Mo Evans and Keyon Dooling, but they also added Anthony Johnson. Combined the Magic will lose over 17 ppg. They add veteran guard Anthony Johnson who should be able to replace the production of Dooling off the bench. Evans started 47 games last season an averaged nearly 10 ppg. However, with the addition of Pietrus, the Magic did not lose all too much this off-season.

So now that we have a better picture of where the Magic have been, let’s look at where they are going and “how the Cavs compare.” Here are the projected starters and rotation players for the Magic and the Cavs.

Magic:
PG-Jameer Nelson
SG-Rashard Lewis
SF-Mikael Pietrus
PF-Hedo Turkoglu
C-Dwight Howard
Bench
G-Keith Bogans
G-Mo Evans
C-Tony Battie
F-Brian Cook

Cavs:
PG-Mo Williams
SG-Sasha Pavlovic/Delonte West
SF-LBJ
PF-Ben Wallace
C-Z
Bench
C-Anderson Varejao
G-Pavlovic/West
G-Gibson
F-Hickson

The Magic are another team that will likely play 3 SF type players at the 2,3, and 4. This is positive and negative for the Cavs matching up against them. Defensively, the problems lie at 2 and the 4. Delonte West gives up 6 inches to Lewis and Wallace gives up significant quickness to Turkoglu. There is also a possibility that Pietrus comes off of the bench in favor of playing Lewis at the 3 and Bogans at the 2. This is favorable to Cleveland as West or Pavlovic can handle Bogans much better than Lewis.

As far as the big men, the Cavs will have different problems with both of the starting big men for the Magic. Turkoglu is more of a perimeter-type big man and Wallace surely would have trouble defending him. Z has somewhat of a height advantage to Howard, but certainly lacks in athleticism. In order to keep with the Cavs, the Magic would really have to make hay against the Cavs starting front line.

The playing style is where the matchup would really won or lost. According to www.basketball-reference.com, the Magic ranked ninth last season in pace factor whereas the Cavs ranked 22nd. Pace factor is essentially defined as how many possessions the gets in 48 minutes. This difference in tempo and the difference in defense is plently enough to decide this matchup. If the Cavs would be able to control the tempo, the Magic would have trouble scoring enough points to counteract the enormous impact that LBJ inevitably has on every Cavaliers game.

This was seen in the four games these two teams played last season. The Magic went 3-1 against the Cavs and the winner scored over 100 points in each of the four games. With the increased physicality and defense in the playoffs, a series between these two teams would probably swing into the Cavs favor.

As far as the 2008-09 regular season comparison, it is likely that these two teams will round out the top four in the Eastern Conference. The increases with the addition of Pietrus and the continued development of Howard will be somewhat cancelled out by the losses in Evans and Dooling and the inevitable regression of Turkoglu. I don’t see why they would not be able to win the Southeast division again this year.

So as far as it goes, I see the Magic as more of a regular season team. They are more than capable of winning 45-50 games again this season. However, if they are able to get into the second round of the playoffs they will have a great deal of trouble beating Detroit, Cleveland or Boston, who play elite defense in May and June.
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bbwchingy0007 · Sep 23, 2008

This will be a great matchup - the Cavs and the Magic, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it feature in May at some point. It pits basically the two players revolutionising their respective positions going head to head, both wanting to win for their team. This is one of the matchups I most look forward to this year, and for the next decade or so, should they keep LeBron and Dwight.

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How the Cavs compare: Orlando Magic

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