But I'm wondering why Obama is so far up there and Darlene Hooley has taken more money from the GSEs than McCain. Surely, if it were that he were a presidential candidate, he should have been given more money, don't you agree? And for that Rick Davis accusation, his firm being on retainer (for which he is on leave) by Freddie Mac and his own book of business are two different things. I imagine you got that story from the NYT. It's sad; I remember when that paper did honest reporting.
If I were a betting man, I'd bet on Obama no matter the odds. When people do get into the voting booth, they are going to have to make the real decision - the inexperienced fool, or the doddering old fool. At least with the Obama, you don't have to worry about him keeling over first week in office. With the political climate as it is, any Democrat nominated should win a big landslide. That the race appears close is a combination of a number of factors, including... McCain is actually a good candidate, not to be underestimated. His time was 8 years ago, not now tho. Obama has run a horrible campaign. There's no humility to anything about it, so there's a disconnect with most people not on the left or east coasts. He can't shake the "inevitable" thing that people don't like, nor the "elitist" perception he exudes. When the right is energized, it has more actual voters and well organized feet on the ground kinds of efforts. It's the religious right and all its social and church organizations vs. the unions. The people that knock on doors and hand out fliers and get people out to vote. Obama's message is muddled. It's about "issues" but the issues are not really the ones people care about even if he's on the right side of them. When the "issues" are a long laundry list of policy wonk bullshit, peoples' eyes glaze over. He'd be better off picking 3 to 5 of them and really explaining his plans on those. Those being ones that really speak to the peoples' wants from government. McCain's message is non-existent, but brilliantly crafted to knock the rock star pedestal from under Obama leaving not much left but his muddled message. Biden's a good guy, smart, experienced and entertaining as a talking head on Chris Matthews' show. As a VP choice, he's absolutely the wrong guy, and this is something the campaign absolutely botched. The Obama campaign really turned off Hillary's supporters. Many are holding their nose and supporting him only because he's at the top of the party's ticket (party over country!). Too many are supporting McCain. The math is simple - about 50M democratic votes in the election, 1/2 support Hillary, 20% of those support McCain now - that's 5M votes! The recent AP survey on racial prejudices shows 1/3 of democrats have idiotic racial prejudices about black people. I am truly shocked that we're not beyond all the racial nonsense (black people are people, just as good as anyone else at anything). What people say to a pollster to avoid coming off as a racist and what they do in the privacy of the voting booth are two very different things. If it were Colin Powell or Condy Rice running on the republican side, it wouldn't be an issue - go figure. The electoral map is too red/blue divided and fixed. The outcome of at least 40 of the states were determined regardless of the nominees. I take that back, a truly bad nominee on one side could alter things, but that's not the case. Obama's rise in peoples' mindshare came about by pandering to his ATM, MoveOn.org, and railing against the efforts in Iraq. The situation has changed on the ground there so we're winning, seeing the light at the end of the tunnel, and it's effectively pulled that notion from his appeal. "I hate W" isn't a winner. It makes one side look like petty haters and it shows in the polls.
It is an interesting dynamic, but the so-called "Party of Racism" is actually less racist than the so-called "Party of Inclusion". There is an uncomfortable union in the Democratic Party of highly-educated liberals and blue-collar rust-belt voters. The latter live hardscrabble lives and racism is a huge factor in their lives. Many not only grew up in white or black neighborhoods, but grew up in ethnic neighborhoods--in other words, ethnicity is a huge identifier for them. On the flip side, many Republicans believe in a meritocracy, where neither race nor gender is an issue. I continue to believe that Sarah Palin's gender was only a happy coincidence, and not as important as her energizing the far right base. I expect to be surprised in states like Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan at how many people say they're voting one way and will vote another.
BETUS AND CANDIDATES PREPARE FOR DEBATES, WHILE PUBLIC AND EXPERTS SPECULATE WITH PREDICTIONS BetUS.com Releases Odds on Upcoming Presidential Debates NEW YORK, NY – Presidential candidates Barack Obama and John McCain have been fighting tooth and nail for months and are now preparing for their first debate this Friday night. The American public, and people from around the world are speculating as to how each will come across, and who will ultimately "win" the debate. In a presidential race as heated and important as this one, speculation is at an all time high. This being the case, the largest most successful sportsbook on the web, BetUS.com posted odds on all thing Obama-McCain debate number one. People are flooding the site looking for answers, and the sit that always beats everyone to the punch has lived up to its reputation once again! Analysts at BetUS.com posted the following odds on the upcoming Presidential Debate: How many times will Barack Obama says "Change"? None +2000 1 - 5 Times +600 6 - 10 Times -350 11 - 15 Times +200 16 - 20 Times +280 Over 20 Times +250 Who will get the first audible laughter response from the audience? Barack Obama -120 John McCain -120 Who will speak first? Barack Obama -120 John McCain -120 Who will request the first topic extension? Barack Obama -120 John McCain -120 How many times will Barack Obama says "Hope"? Over 9½ -130 Under 9½ -110 Who will request the first topic extension? Barack Obama -120 John McCain -120 How many questions will Barack Obama be asked before he calls John McCain out of touch? Over 3 -120 Under 3 -120 How many times will John McCain say POW? Over 4½ -130 Under 4½ -110 Will a "Yes we can" chant break out during the debate? Yes -200 No +150 How many times will a "Yes we can" chant break out during the debate? Over 2 -130 Under 2 -110 Will Bill Ayres name be mentioned during the debate? Yes +200 No -300 Will John McCain be asked how many houses he owns during the debate? Yes +120 No -160 Will John McCain remember how many houses he owns if asked during the debate? Yes -400 No +300 How many times will John McCain say "My Friends"? Over 3½ -120 Under 3½ -120 Who will be the first candidate to refer to themselves as the candidate of change? Barack Obama -140 John McCain Even Who will be the first candidate to mention 9/11? Barack Obama +110 John McCain -150 Who will be the first candidate to mention Osama Bin Laden? Barack Obama +150 John McCain -200 How many times will the candidates begin a response with "That's a great question"? Over 4½ -120 Under 4½ -120 How many times will McCain mention Bush? None +200 1 - 5 Times -150 6 - 10 Times +300 11 - 15 Times +900 16 - 20 Times +1800 Over 20 Times +2200 Vice Presidential Debate How many times will Joe Biden go over the time limit? Over 3 -130 Under 3 -110 How many times will Sarah Palin say "In what respect" when asked a question? Over 2 -125 Under 2 -115 Will Sarah Palin refer to herself as a Hockey Mom? Yes Even No -140 How many times will the candidates begin a response with "That's a great question"? Over 3 -120 Under 3 -120 <table _base_href="https://exmail.dblexchange.com/exchange/sejimenez/Inbox/BetUS%20Posts%20Presidential%20(and%20VP)%20Debate%20Odds.EML/" align="center"><tbody _base_href="https://exmail.dblexchange.com/exchange/sejimenez/Inbox/BetUS%20Posts%20Presidential%20(and%20VP)%20Debate%20Odds.EML/"><tr _base_href="https://exmail.dblexchange.com/exchange/sejimenez/Inbox/BetUS%20Posts%20Presidential%20(and%20VP)%20Debate%20Odds.EML/"><td _base_href="https://exmail.dblexchange.com/exchange/sejimenez/Inbox/BetUS%20Posts%20Presidential%20(and%20VP)%20Debate%20Odds.EML/" align="center" width="650"> </td></tr></tbody></table>
It will be interesting to see if the bailout bill isn't done by Friday if either Obama or McCain show up in Mississippi on Friday. And if it's just Obama who shows, who looks worse? You have to imagine that McCain would buy an ad to explain why he wasn't there just before the debate.
