This will be the first of probably a biweekly posts looking at how the race is breaking down. I will only do projections here, not some poll averages. So any number you see for a state is a projection. Alabama - 9 EV During the Democratic primaries, SurveyUSA under-polled Alabama for Obama, and overpolled the state for McCain, mis-projecting McCain to be the winner of the primary. Rasmussen projected both the Democratic and Republican primaries wrong, significantly under-polling Obama. Obama will probably significantly outperform the current polls in Alabama. SurveyUSA shows McCain up 30 in the state, and Rasmussen has McCain up 21. Obama will be riding the strength of the black vote in Alabama. Projection: John McCain 56 Barack Obama 44 Cumalitive: John McCain - 9 EV Barack Obama - 0 EV Alaska - 3 EV Obama looked like he could possibly carry the state in the midst of the Alaskan scandals, but John McCain's selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate puts the state securely in the McCain camp. Projection: John McCain 65 Barack Obama 35 Cumulative: John McCain - 12 EV Barack Obama - 0 EV Arizona - 10 EV Arizona is a state that Barack Obama would probably take against any of the other opponents. Still, McCain wasn't even able to garner 50% of the vote in the Republican primary. McCain however should hold on to win the state. There seems to be a bit of response bias in the polls, in favor of McCain. Arizona residents likely feel pressured when talking to someone face to face to say they are supporting McCain, when in fact they are not. Projection: John McCain 57 Barack Obama 42 Cumulative: John McCain - 22 EV Barack Obama - 0 EV Arkansas - 6 EV Arkansas is one of those states that can be pretty democratic, but still has it's bouts with racism. Obama should consolidate some of Clinton's voters, and will get a boost from the black vote, but Obama hasn't staged much of a campaign in Arkansas, so it is hard to see this one being close at all. Projection: John McCain 57 Barack Obama 43 Cumulative: John McCain - 28 EV Barack Obama - 0 EV California - 55 EV For the most part, pollsters did pretty good on the Democratic side during the primaries in this state. Rasmussen showed a statistical deadhead, and the unreliable Zogby showed an Obama blowout, but ignoring that one massive outlier, the pollsters did pretty well. The Republican side was a little all over the place, some showing McCain, others showing Romney as the winner. California is a big state, with a lot of cell phones, so this may have had something to do with the skewed polling. The state is traditionally Democrat, and it is hard to see Obama coughing it up. Projection: Barack Obama 56 John McCain 44 Cumulative: John McCain - 28 EV Barack Obama - 55 EV Colorado - 9 EV The Southwest is one of hte areas that Democrats, regardless of candidates, were going to target aggressively this election, as evidenced by the Democrats holding their convention in Denver. Obama has opened up a statistically significant lead in the state in multiple polls. All signs point to Colorado going for Obama. Projection: Barack Obama 51 John McCain 49 Cumulative: John McCain - 28 EV Barack Obama - 64 EV Connecticut - 7 EV Connecticut is part of the liberal North East. Obama is more popular than other Democrats in this state, and should have no difficulty picking up the state. Projection: Barack Obama 57 John McCain 43 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 71 EV John McCain - 28 EV Delaware - 3 EV Again, part of the liberal North East. Obama's running mate is from the state, which only puts the already locked up state more on lockdown. Projection: Barack Obama 59 John McCain 41 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 74 EV John McCain - 28 EV District of Columbia - 3 EV Obama will carry the district on the power of black support. Projection: Barack Obama: 90 John McCain 10 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 77 EV John McCain - 28 EV Florida - 27 EV What can you say except for....FLORIDA! FLORIDA! FLORIDA! Interesting state, given that the primary there was a sham on the Democrats side. Obama has pulled into a statistical dead heat with McCain in the polls. Obama is doing well in the Tampa area, but still, he started in a very large hole in Florida, that is difficult for him to make up the ground. If I was a Democrat, after the past 2 elections, I wouldn't be putting my future at the mercy of Florida. Projection: John McCain 50 Barack Obama 48 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 77 John McCain - 55 Georgia - 15 EV Georgia is one of those Southern states where Obama will outperform the polls, but it won't matter much because he will be too far behind. Obama will ride a strong black vote in Georgia. Projection: John McCain 53 Barack Obama 44 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 77 EV John McCain - 70 EV Hawaii - 4 EV Obama will easily carry his home state. Projection: Barack Obama 71 John McCain 29 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 81 EV John McCain 70 EV Idaho - 4 EV Obama performed very well during the primaries here...but so did McCain. McCain should have no problem absolutely destroying Obama in this typical Republican state. Projection: John McCain 70 Barack Obama 30 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 81 EV John McCain - 74 EV Illinois - 21 EV This is Obama's home state. He is very popular there, and will easily carry the state. Projection: Barack Obama 59 John McCain 41 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 102 EV John McCain - 74 EV Indiana - 11 EV This state is compelling. It has been home to many Republican whompings of Democrats. It is surrounded however, by Democratic states, in Illinois and Michigan. Why was Indiana so red? It looks like it may be because Democrats never campaigned there. The long primary contest put a focus on Indiana, which brought Democratic campaigns to the state. Obama's close finish in Indiana locked up the Democratic nomination for him. What is so compelling right now, is that the polls are all within the margin of error, but not only that, but Selzer, one of the most reliable pollsters shows Obama with a few point lead. Kerry did horrible in Indianapolis, a place where Obama will be able to make up a lot of ground really quick. The Obama ground game in this state is absolutely phenomenal, registering voters at gas stations non-stop. The number of voters that were cast in the Democratic primary were more than Kerry received in the 2004 election, and even neared Bush's number. This will likely be one of the closest states this election. Projection: John McCain 49.6 Barack Obama 49.5x Cumulative: Barack Obama - 102 EV John McCain - 85 EV Iowa - 7 EV Iowa launched Obama's presidential campaign and gained him the status of legitimacy as a major candidate among black voters. Gore carried the state in 2000, Bush in 2004, and the state this time around seems to have gone fully behind Obama. It is unlikely for too many voters to change their minds here, given how much time they have spent with the candidates. Projection: Barack Obama 55 John McCain 45 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 109 EV John McCain - 85 EV Kansas - 6 EV Obama had a dominated win on Super Tuesday on Kansas, but he will also get the floor swept with him in the general election. Kansas is a deep red state. Projection: John McCain 61 Barack Obama 39 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 109 EV John McCain 91 EV Kentucky - 8 EV This is a rustbelt state, that Obama didn't campaign in, and that is filled with racists that Obama has no hope to even make it close. Projection: John McCain 62 Barack Obama 38 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 109 EV John McCain - 99 EV Louisiana - 9 EV This is one of those southern states that Obama will likely over perform in. Obama will also be aided by the general pissed offness of many residents over Bush's bungling of Katrina. Still, too much ground for Obama to make up. Projection: John McCain 54 Barack Obama 46 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 109 EV John McCain - 108 EV Maine - 4 EV Maine is somewhat interesting, because it awards its votes by congressional district. So Obama could potentially win the state, and only get 3 EVs. This is especially significant, because there are a few scenarios where Obama could be at 269 EV's (Gore States + Colorado, or Kerry States + Iowa, New Mexico, and Nevada) at which point a congressional district could cost Obama the election. Luckily for Obama, the congressional districts are polling about even. Projection: Barack Obama 53 John McCain 46 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 113 EV John McCain - 108 EV Maryland - 10 EV This state in the North East has voted Democrat in recent elections. The black vote will also help Obama. Projection: Barack Obama - 63 John McCain 37 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 123 EV John McCain - 108 EV Massachusetts - 12 EV Liberal North East state that Obama will easily carry. Projection: Barack Obama 59 John McCain 41 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 135 EV John McCain - 108 EV Michigan - 17 EV Michigan looked at one point like a state that the Republicans might be able to play offense after the bungled primary without Obama on the ballot, but at this point, any resources spent in this state are just just being wasted. Obama has opened up a significant statistical lead in multiple polls, and this one looks stashed away in the Obama column. Projection: Barack Obama 51 John McCain 48 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 152 EV John McCain - 108 EV Minnesota - 10 EV Another typical blue state that the Republicans have tried to play offense in, as they held their convention here. Polling has drawn closer, but Obama has always maintained a lead, and a statistically significant lead in multiple polls. Projection: Barack Obama 52 John McCain 48 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 162 EV John McCain - 108 EV Mississippi - 6 EV Another one of those Southern states that Obama should overperform in. Still, there is just too much ground for Obama to make up to have any feasible shot at winning the state. Projection: John McCain 56 Barack Obama 44 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 162 EV John McCain - 114 EV Missouri - 11 EV This state is always said to be a bell weather that will predict the winner of the election. Will it this time around? Only time will tell. Obama has a great ground game in the state, and has been closing in on McCain, but will he be able to turn it over by election day? Projection: John McCain 53 Barack Obama 47 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 162 EV John McCain - 125 EV Montana - 3 EV Once a state that looked like a possible pick up for Obama, has moved firmly into the McCain column following the selection of Sarah Palin as John McCain's VP. Projection: John McCain 54 Barack Obama 44 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 162 EV John McCain - 128 EV Nebraska - 5 EV Nebraska, like Maine, divides its EV's by congressional districts. Obama looked competitive in the entire state, and two of the congressional districts early on, but as the campaign moved on, McCain has moved far ahead of Obama. Projection: John McCain 62 Barack Obama 37 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 162 EV John McCain - 133 EV Nevada - 5 EV This is a state that is part of that little South West area. The state is buffered from New Mexico and Colorado by Utah and Arizona. The race has been in a statistical dead heat for a while. The state has been polling behind Obama's national average, and seems to have a slight Republican lean. Projection: John McCain 49.3 Barack Obama 49 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 162 EV John McCain - 138 EV New Hampshire - 4 EV New Hampshire was a state that Gore lost in 2000, and Kerry barely held on to win in 2004. Currently the candidates are in a statistical deadheat in New Hampshire, but it also seems to be polling behind Obama's national numbers. Can Mac take this back for the Republicans? Projection: John McCain 50 Barack Obama 49.x Cumulative: Barack Obama - 162 EV John McCain - 142 EV New Jersey - 15 EV New Jersey is one of those states in the North East block that is essential in any Democratic win. If they aren't taking a state like New Jersey, they aren't taking the election. Projection: Barack Obama 55 John McCain 45 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 177 EV John McCain - 142 EV New Mexico - 5 EV This is a state Gore took in 2000. Obama is reaping the benefits of his great Latino support in this state and of Richardson's aggressive campaigning. (and also some Hillary Clinton campaigning). Projection: Barack Obama 54 John McCain 46 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 182 EV John McCain - 142 EV New York - 31 EV Another one of those North East states. Will be an easy carry for Obama. Projection: Barack Obama 60 John McCain 40 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 213 EV John McCain - 142 EV North Carolina - 15 EV John McCain and Barack Obama are in a statistical dead heat. Obama could be underpolling here, as African American turnout may be being underpolled. The state seems to still have a slight lean for the Republicans. Projection: John McCain 50 Barack Obama 49 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 213 EV John McCain - 157 EV North Dakota- 3 EV Another one of those traditionally red states Obama at one time was looking to pick off, but is now clearly in the McCain column. Projection: John McCain 58 Barack Obama 42 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 213 John McCain - 160 EV Ohio - 20 EV One of the classic swing states. While the state would presumably lean Obama is in a statistical dead heat, but always has seemed to lean McCain, and always seems to lean the Republicans way as the election nears. Projection: John McCain 53 Barack Obama 47 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 213 EV John McCain - 180 EV Oklahoma - 7 EV John McCain blowout. Projection: John McCain 69 Barack Obama 31 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 213 EV John McCain - 187 EV Oregon - 7 EV Part of the Northwest, a key for Democratic victories. McCain brought the polls closer for a bit, but the gap has widened after the Palin bubble popped. Projection: Barack Obama 55 John McCain 45 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 220 EV John McCain - 187 EV Pennsylvania - 21 EV A rustbelt state that is key in any democratic victory. It has been closer than Democrats would like, but it looks hard for McCain to turn it red in November. Obama seems to have a solid 5-7 point lead right now based on recent polling. He seems to be doing better than Kerry here. Projection: Barack Obama 52 John McCain 48 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 241 EV John McCain - 187 EV Rhode Island - 4 EV Another North East liberal state that is essential in any Democratic win. Easy Obama win. Projection: Barack Obama 60 John McCain 39 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 245 EV John McCain - 187 EV South Carolina - 8 EV Southern State where Obama has polled good early on, but has faltered as the campaign moves on. Obama will likely out perform the polls as the result of a heavy black vote. Projection: John McCain 56 Barack Obama 44 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 245 EV John McCain - 195 EV South Dakota - 3 EV Traditional red state. Looked like it might be a possible pick up for Obama, but moved into it's traditional place. Projection: John McCain 59 Barack Obama 39 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 245 EV John McCain - 198 EV Tennessee - 11 EV Gore's home state from the 2000 election which he couldn't carry. Definite loss for Obama. Projection: John McCain 62 Barack Obama 38 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 245 EV John McCain - 209 Texas - 34 EV Traditional red state that won't change colors. Projection: John McCain 55 Barack Obama 45 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 245 John McCain - 243 EV Utah - 5 EV As red as you can get. Projection: John McCain 70 Barack Obama 29 Cumulative: John McCain - 248 EV Barack Obama - 245 EV Vermont - 3 EV Typical state needed in the liberal North East for a Democratic win. Safe democrat. Projection: Barack Obama 60 John Mccain 40 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 248 EV John McCain 248 EV Virginia - 13 EV A state that Barack Obama has been able to make a swing state after a strong primary performance. At the current moment, Barack Obama has a statistically significant lead in the state. It is also likely that Obama is underpoling a bit here, as blacks will give Obama a bounce on election day. Projection: Barack Obama 52 John McCain 48 Cumulative: Barack Obama- 261 EV John McCain - 248 EV Washington - 11 EV North West state that is key in any Democratic victory. Tightened up a bit, and then Obama's lead widened again. Projection: Barack Obama 55 John McCain 45 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 272 EV John McCain - 248 EV West Virginia - 5 EV This is a state that has been inching closer to Obama, about in that 6 point range. This state, with all of its racism, it is likely Obama may be overpolling. Projection: John McCain 57 Barack Obama 43 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 272 EV John McCain - 253 EV Wisconsin - 10 EV One of the closest states in the past 2 elections. Obama has a strong base of support thanks to the proximity to Illinois and Chicago. Obama will turn out the vote in urban centers like Madison, Racine, Milwaukee, and Kenosha, which should be enough to carry him to an easy victory. Projection: Barack Obama 53 John McCain 47 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 282 EV John McCain - 253 EV Wyoming - 3 EV Typical Republican state. Projection: John McCain 68 Barack Obama 30 Cumulative: Barack Obama - 282 EV John McCain - 256 EV Electoral College: Barack Obama 282 EV John McCain 256 EV Popular Vote: Barack Obama 51 John McCain 48 Projected Winner:
You're right, I need to readjust the numbers to be representative of Obama's 6 point national lead in the current polls, and not the 3% popular vote win I give him.
