Pirates, Ninjas, Vikings (Was Big Time Centers Rookie #'s)

Re: Big Time Centers Rookie #'s

haha my friend, all I can say is that you've joined a forum where fans of a specific team do thoroughly enjoy talking about many other teams, as their enjoyment of the game of basketball extends to teams other than their own.

 

Re: Big Time Centers Rookie #'s

I am too.............. with your sister!

 

Re: Big Time Centers Rookie #'s

Eliminating the last 20 years takes out Howard, Duncan (who wasn't on the list in the first post), Shaq and Zo (who wasn't on the list in the first post) among others.

Also, by going back that far, almost every comparison is going to be to a player that was significantly older than Greg when they were rookies. There is Moses Malone, but then you are looking at ABA stats.

 

Re: Big Time Centers Rookie #'s

Rather than whine about the original poster's data, I took 5 minutes to rebuild it with what I thought was useful. I didn't bother to check exact age on my source--it's based on their first NBA season's year (say, "1988" for the 88-89 season) minus their birthday year (say, 1972). (In my example, the player is listed as 26. I'm too lazy to work any harder than that.)

Anyway, I left out blocks per game because it wasn't listed in a column at BasketballReference.com.

<table x:str="" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 299pt;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="398"><col style="width: 107pt;" width="142"> <col style="width: 48pt;" span="4" width="64"> <tbody><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt; width: 107pt;" width="142" height="17">
</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">Age</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">PPG</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">Rebs</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64">FG%</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Howard</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="">19</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="">12</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="">10</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="">0.520</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Moses Malone</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="">19</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="">19</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="">14</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="0.57099999999999995">0.571</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Oden</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="">20</td> <td class="xl24">?</td> <td class="xl24">?</td> <td class="xl24">?</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Shaq</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="">20</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="">23</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="">14</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="0.56200000000000006">0.562</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Olajuwon</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="">21</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="">20</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="">12</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="0.53800000000000003">0.538</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Duncan</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="">21</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="">21</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="">12</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="0.54900000000000004">0.549</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Yao</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="">22</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="">13</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="">8</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="0.498">0.498</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Mourning</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="">22</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="">21</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="">10</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="0.51100000000000001">0.511</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Ewing</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="">24</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="">20</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="">9</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="0.47399999999999998">0.474</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Robinson</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="">24</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="">24</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="">12</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="0.53100000000000003">0.531</td> </tr> </tbody></table>

 

Re: Big Time Centers Rookie #'s

My take on my own (not terribly rigorous) rookie data is that Oden is almost a certain lock for double-digit rebounding and scoring. 20 ppg seems a bit high, but he ought to do better than Howard or Yao.

Yao was incredibly soft entering the league, and he played beside real chuckers in Francis/Mobley.

In his first year Howard could only score on dunks, and that was if you couldn't foul him before he got the shot up. And he just wasn't very aggressive with his shot.

I'm looking for around 15 ppg and 12 rebounds, with FG% in the mid-to-high .500's.

 

Re: Big Time Centers Rookie #'s

Amare as a 20 year old rookie (using the same scale as mook) averaged 14.6 PPG after the All Star game. He played with two 20+ PPG scorers in Marbury and Marion.

 

Re: Big Time Centers Rookie #'s

Jesus tits on toast.

I confess I ran out of steam reading all the posts in this thread, but I did get the gist of HCP's original intent to show that those centers he listed represent the bar by which we can measure Greg's rookie season against. This clearly wasn't some attempt to project what Greg will do in his rookie year.

A little reading comprehension goes a long ways.

 

Re: Big Time Centers Rookie #'s

Breakdown of how I see Oden doing this year on the low end. I could easily see him exceeding the points, presuming he gets 3-4 offensive rebounds he'll score 6 pts a game on putbacks. Rebound wise I think it's safe to say he'll get 10 a game. Blocks could be higher but at the minimum I think 3

10-12 shot attempts shooting 60% 12 pts
5-6 free throws a game shooting 75% 4.5 pts
Total scoring roughly 16 pts a game.

Rebounds minimum 10 per game probably closer to 12

Blocks-3 per game

 

Re: Big Time Centers Rookie #'s

So disagreeing that it was the bar by which to measure Greg's rookie season isn't allowed?

 

Re: Big Time Centers Rookie #'s

disagreement is fine. But what is there to disagree with? HCP posted a handful of highly touted rookie centers that went on to have HOF careers (or are likely HOF candidates in the case of Dwight Howard), and since Greg is a highly touted center prospect these are the guys he'll be compared against. Including every center, star, bust and in between, would serve no purpose.

I think you're still assuming that HCP was saying, "Hey look at these rookie centers, this is what Greg is going to do."

 

Re: Big Time Centers Rookie #'s

I never assumed such a thing.

I disagree that it was an appropriate sample of big men to set the rookie bar at for Oden. Hell, at bbf, I had an Oden avatar before the Blazers won the lottery. I'm an Oden fan.

 

Re: Big Time Centers Rookie #'s

I'm glad there are some guys out there that understand what I was doing. Just starting a thread about GREG. If this is how we are going to be treated over here, I'd rather be at BBF.

 

Re: Big Time Centers Rookie #'s

DHo averaged 14.5 PPG after the All Star game his rookie year

Oden is a much better Free Throw shooter than either Amare or DHo

 

Re: Big Time Centers Rookie #'s

I am with you HCP, big time.

The hijackers of the thread did not understand or deliberately went on a tangent. There may be other reasons that I haven't covered however.

I am grateful that you took the time to make a thread that we could have discussed. I suspect that most would be posters did not get to this point in the thread.

To the Point of the thread, if is helpful for me to see these number as it gives a framework to judge Greg's performance.

He is likely to excel but to what level is anybody s guess.

My best guess would be Greg will compare favorably somewhere close to what Walton accomplished. I don't have the stats, but I remember seeing him play and I think Greg will be better in the long run. Greg's size is going to be far more overpowering than Walton's.


g

 

Allow me to bask in the irony. I'm a fan of irony.

 

Re: Big Time Centers Rookie #'s

So you believe there is zero reason to discuss if the original list is appropriate as you say below to give a framework to judge Oden's performance?

Personally, I see zero reason to set the bar at the performance level of players that scored 20+ PPG as rookies, especially ones that had multiple years of college.

In 35 games, Walton averaged 12.8 PPG and 12.6 RPG as a 22 year old rookie

 

Re: Big Time Centers Rookie #'s

cpaw, if you wish to provide a critique, perhaps it would be instructive to create a post as to how you would have approached this problem. Include the requisite players with the relevant data.

 

I have a membership at S2, not RipCityTwo.

I was hoping to come in here and discuss rookie centers in comparison to Oden. Such as: playing styles, players around them, coaches, pace, etc. that affected them and their numbers. And how all that will affect Oden and his numbers.

Do I need to make a new thread to discuss that, or is that too off-topic?

Or am I not allowed here? Do I have to go to the NBA General section to discuss that?

 

Re: Big Time Centers Rookie #'s

Ask the 2 cats that fucked this thread up in the first place!