Ironically, the statistical projection is the same as mine (I made my list from "knowing the game"), though I added LeBron (doesn't qualify for the projection) and Nash.
Oh, so because I'm a New Jersey Nets fan, obviously I would want Kidd to get into the hall of fame? Here's a red flag: you keep falling back on numbers that describe the general tendencies of the Hall of Fame over the entire length of time it's been in existence, rather than give substantial evaluations of specific players. I'll do it for you. Really, it's easy. I just wikipedia'd this shit: Jason Kidd "is in third place all-time for regular season triple-doubles in the NBA with a career total of 100 and second in playoffs triple-doubles with a career total of 11." Uh, yeah he's in there.
It's not just a homerism issue with VC and Nets fans, per se, that the statistical/probability eliminates. The list I made was based upon several factors. The primary one is simply that it is REALLY hard to get in the HOF. It's really easy to say "so and so" belongs in the HOF, but the reality is that few actually get in. Dennis Rodman's not in, and he won 5 rings on two teams, had rebounding numbers reminiscent of players in the Wilt era, and won DPOY 2 times and was all NBA defense 1st team 7 times. I put Kidd's chances about the same as Rodman's.
In what way? I have him listed as a guy who's hyped a lot as a lock but isn't going to get in. The list I cited has him as the 12th most likely to make the HOF among active players, and not a very good chance to get in (why? because there's LOTS of 85% chance to get in players overall, who's in?)
OK, and? You can go copy/paste from his WikiPedia page and it's impressive, too. I'm not suggesting either belongs.
You actually think Kidd doesn't belong in the HOF? That's both funny and upsetting at the same time. Kidd belongs in the HOF and will make it. When people mention Kidd in a sentence they don't say "future Hall of Famer" for no reason.
You just said the jackknife/basketball-reference method is pretty damn accurate in predicting these things...
Stay in contact with me, Denny. I don't know if it's going to be 10 years from now or 15, but I will rub this in your face.
They only take roughly 10 players every 10 years in the HOF. Kidd simply isn't in the top 10 to make it. There are players with way less than 85% who are in the HOF, too. I think Dirk is on the bubble and may well make it, though I predict not. Yao has a better chance than Kidd, and his chances are < 20%.
What does this even mean? If it is accurate, he will get in like most of the people that are at his tier... And Rodman doesn't have the same "chance" according to that list.
