Purdy: Nolan's time starting to run out

Legacy · Oct 7, 2008

Mike Nolan understands. He knows the deal. He is coaching to save his job. Every Sunday. And the occasional Monday night.

"You're doing that at all times,'' he said Monday afternoon. "This week, I'll do it again. If we are 5-0, you are coaching for your job. That doesn't change. That's just the nature of the beast."

Except that these days, the beast is getting a little uglier and meaner. The noise at Candlestick Park on Sunday was the noise of a beast with a very upset stomach. And not because of the garlic fries.

It is not so much that the 49ers are off to a 2-3 start this season with Nolan as their coach. It is the way those three losses have unfolded. Nolan's proud defense — his alleged strategic specialty — has shown little swagger and nothing close to dominance.

"These last two weeks have been a disappointment," Nolan said. "There are a lot of things that we've got to work on."

He needs to work fast. No one in an official 49ers capacity has hinted that Nolan's job is in imminent danger. But when he escaped being fired after last season's 5-11 finish, basically by convincing the team's ownership it would never happen again, common wisdom is that Nolan's job security for this season would be on a short leash.

So. Winning this Sunday's home game against a banged-up Philadelphia Eagles team would be a good idea.

But here is another thing Nolan really needs to do: Root like crazy for the Raiders to keep losing under new interim coach Tom Cable. Why? Because if Cable is a big success over the next several weeks after replacing the fired Lane Kiffin, and Cable is having that success right across the bay, it might convince 49ers management that a midseason coaching move can actually succeed.

Almost always, it doesn't. History proves this. Fans don't like to hear that. But facts are facts.

Football isn't like baseball, where a team can switch managers halfway through a season, see a big turnaround, and wind up in the World Series. That doesn't happen in the NFL. There are so many more moving parts — bigger rosters, more complicated X's and O's, more assistant coaches to coordinate.

That doesn't mean Nolan should get a free pass the rest of the way. It just means that if the 49ers were going to make a change, they should have done so last winter. And if they want to make a change soon ... well, they should probably just wait until next January, as well.

People want to believe a new head coach in October or November can work miracles overnight. Usually, it just results in a lousy losing team finishing up the season as ... a lousy losing team.

Since 1930, there have been 85 cases of an NFL team changing coaches in midseason. Guess how many of those changes resulted in that team making the playoffs?

The answer: three times. But zero times since 1961.

Granted, some of those 85 midseason switches have been modestly successful. Four have resulted in .500 finishes. And five others — in addition to the three above — have led to winning records but no playoff appearance. The most recent example was eight years ago. Bobby Ross resigned as the Detroit Lions' coach nine games into the 2000 season and Gary Moeller finished with a 9-7 record. And no playoff spot.

There are only two reasons to fire an NFL coach in the middle of the season. One is if the owner or general manager believes a different coach can get the team into the postseason. The other is, if the owner thinks that fans are so angry they won't buy any more tickets if the coach isn't dumped.

Do either of those reasons apply to Nolan? The first, probably not. And not just because of the historical record. Mike Martz, the 49ers' offensive coordinator, would be the obvious Nolan replacement. But how would he fix the defensive problems?

As for the second reason ... well, the fans are definitely angry. Just ask them. But most of Candlestick Park's seats already are sold for the rest of the season. And if ticket renewals are the issue for 2009, doesn't it usually create more optimism if a new coach is brought aboard in the off-season?

Nolan, a second generation NFL head coach, surely understands this. But he also remembers how his father, Dick Nolan, was fired 12 games into the 1980 season by the New Orleans Saints. Mike was in college at the time. It had to make an impression.

"I don't know where it will end up,'' Nolan pondered Monday about the immediate future. "We need to do better right now. I would expect us to be a game or two better than we are right now from a record standpoint. But there is a lot of football left."

That's what he says. What does the beast say?
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Vintage · Oct 7, 2008

He is on the hot seat.. but for whom? Martz? He is an OC at best.

drexlersdad · Oct 7, 2008

they need to fire the gm is what they need to do.

Vintage · Oct 7, 2008

Who is the GM?

Mamba · Oct 8, 2008

I like Nolan, too. I feel for him. I thought SF was going to be a surprise team this year. They can still be, but it's going to take a lot of work. They should've beat New England.

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Purdy: Nolan's time starting to run out

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Purdy: Nolan's time starting to run out

Legacy Beast

Vintage Defeating Communism...

drexlersdad SABAS

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Mamba The King is Back Staff Member Global Moderator

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