Ultimate Game Breakdown-Players: Nuggets 118 T-Wolves 95 (Oct 10, Preseason) This is much of what an Ultimate Game Breakdown-Players is going to look like for the new season. There will be some commentary included for a regular season game, but most of the game and team commentary will be in the separate "Game and Team Reports." With an Ultimate Game Breakdown-Players, you can see very rapidly who was most responsible for the winning or the losing of the game. Then someone like me can easily write a separate game report which explains how things might have worked out better for a team, or why things worked out just about as well as possible, as the case may be. The Real Player Ratings formula has been very carefully and accurately tweaked again and is currently as follows: POSITIVE FACTORS Points 1.00 (at par) Number of 3-Pt FGs Made 1.00 Number of 2-Pt FGs Made 0.60 Number of FTs Made 0.00 Assists 1.75 Offensive Rebounds 1.15 Defensive Rebounds 1.25 Blocks 1.60 Steals 2.10 NEGATIVE FACTORS 3-Pt FGs Missed -1.00 2-Pt FGs Missed -0.85 FTs Missed -0.85 Turnovers -2.00 Personal Fouls -0.80 ACTUAL COMBINED AWARD OR PENALTY BY TYPE OF SHOT 3-Pointer Made 4.00 2-Pointer Made 2.60 Free Throw Made 1.00 3-Pointer Missed -1.00 2-Pointer Missed -0.85 Free Throw Missed -0.85 ZERO POINTS: PERCENTAGES BELOW WHICH THERE IS A NEGATIVE NET RESULT 3-Pointer 0 score % 0.200 2-Pointer 0 score % 0.246 1-Pointer 0 score % 0.459 ASSISTS VERSUS TURNOVERS ZERO POINT Assists vs Turnovers 0.533 Assist/Turnover Ratio 1.143 NOTES ON HOW TO USE ULTIMATE GAME BREAKDOWN RPR/RPP REPORTS RPR game reports show for each player the RPR (Real Player Rating) which tells you how good a player did (the good things minus the bad things) out on the court per unit of time. The RPP (Real Player Production) report tells you how much in total (the sum of the of the good things minus the sum of the bad things) a player did out on the court. Many and maybe most sports watchers and an unknown but probably disturbingly large number of sports managers make the mistakes of exaggerating the importance of quantity and overlooking to some extent quality. These reports allow you to expand your horizons. These reports put quantity and quality side by side, which is extremely valuable, because both are roughly equally important in explaining accurately why and how the game turned out the way it did. Players who over many games consistently have higher RPR (quality) but lower RPP (quantity) results are in many cases not getting enough playing time. Players that over many games consistently have lower RPR (quality) but higher RPP (quantity) results are in many cases getting too much playing time. The exceptional cases are very often going to be players who are either truly outstanding defenders or truly bad defenders. This is because the one and only thing that is not counted, because it is impossible to calculate it, is the number of shots that a player prevents from being scores. Investigation has to date revealed that, apparently, no one has even attempted, for the NBA, rough estimates of the actual value of each player's defending, in terms of number or percentage of scores prevented, or in terms of number or percentage of possessions made worthless. Another exception. where it is really alright when it looks like a player is playing too much, will be if a team has a point guard who has many more turnovers than the average point guard has. Because the point guard is so important, a good coach has to play his best guard who can make plays at the position for a full set of minutes every game, pretty much regardless of how many turnovers that player makes. If you take out your designated point guard due to "too many turnovers," it's most often going to be sort of like cutting your foot off because you have a bad case of athletes foot! Over the coming year, I am going to be working to see if it is possible to use some combination of advanced statistics that are tracked on certain internet sites as an accurate proxy for the number of shots and/or for the number of possessions ruined by a defender. REAL PLAYER RATINGS RPR 2.0B NUGGETS 118 TIMBERWOLVES 95 (Preseason Game Oct 9 2008) MINNESOTA QUALITY Corey Brewer, SF 1.003 Al Jefferson, PF 0.782 Mike Miller, SG 0.675 Blake Ahearn, PG 0.596 Sebastian Telfair, PG 0.558 Randy Foye, PG 0.508 Kevin Love, F 0.438 Ryan Gomes, PF 0.372 Chris Richard, PF 0.175 Mark Madsen, PF 0.137 Rodney Carney, SF -0.083 DENVER QUALITY Renaldo Balkman, SF 2.600 Chris Andersen, PF 1.550 Ruben Patterson, SF 1.504 Steven Hunter, PF 1.167 Smush Parker, PG 1.092 Kenyon Martin, PF 0.979 J.R. Smith, SG 0.908 Nene Hilario, PF 0.852 Dahntay Jones, SG 0.743 Linas Kleiza, SF 0.633 Allen Iverson, SG 0.598 Juwan Howard, PF 0.521 Anthony Carter, PG 0.319 SCALE FOR RPR (QUALITY) RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME Historic Superstar for this game 1.200 and more Superstar 1.000 1.199 Star 0.800 0.999 Outstanding 0.625 0.799 Major Role Player 0.525 0.624 Role Player 0.450 0.524 Minor Role Player 0.400 0.449 Very Minor Role Player or Very Important Defender 0.350 0.399 Poor Game or Extremely Importand Defender 0.275 0.349 Very Poor Game Regardless of Defending 0.200 0.274 Disaster Game Regardless of Defending and less 0.199 REAL PLAYER PRODUCTION MINNESOTA QUANTITY Al Jefferson, PF 25.80 Sebastian Telfair, PG 18.40 Corey Brewer, SF 16.05 Randy Foye, PG 15.75 Blake Ahearn, PG 13.70 Kevin Love, F 10.95 Ryan Gomes, PF 8.55 Mike Miller, SG 6.75 Chris Richard, PF 2.45 Mark Madsen, PF 2.05 Rodney Carney, SF -1.00 DENVER QUANTITY Chris Andersen, PF 27.90 J.R. Smith, SG 23.60 Renaldo Balkman, SF 23.40 Ruben Patterson, SF 21.05 Kenyon Martin, PF 20.55 Nene Hilario, PF 18.75 Dahntay Jones, SG 16.35 Smush Parker, PG 14.20 Allen Iverson, SG 13.75 Linas Kleiza, SF 13.30 Steven Hunter, PF 10.50 Anthony Carter, PG 6.70 Juwan Howard, PF 6.25 SCALE FOR RPP (QUANTITY) RATINGS FOR A SINGLE GAME STARTERS Happens only a few times a year in the NBA 45.0 and more Massive and Memorable Game 40.0 44.9 Huge Game 35.0 39.9 Very Big Game 30.0 34.9 Big Game 25.0 29.9 Typical Average Game 20.0 24.9 Somewhat Below Average Game 16.0 19.9 Way Below Average Game 12.0 15.9 Bad Game 9.0 11.9 Really Bad Game 5.0 8.9 Total Disaster and less 4.9 NON-STARTERS Massive and Memorable Game 35.0 and more Huge Game 30.0 34.9 Very Big Game 25.0 29.9 Big Game 20.0 24.9 Typical Non-Starter Game 14.0 19.9 Below Average Even For a Non-Starter 9.0 13.9 Way Below Average Even For a Non-Starter 5.0 8.9 Bad Game Even For a Non-Starter 2.0 4.9 Disaster: Nothing Much to Report and less 1.9 THE HIGH QUALITY PLAYERS IN THIS GAME OUTSTANDING QUALITY GAMES FOR THE NUGGETS Historic Superstar Level During Minutes on the Court: Renaldo Balkman Historic Superstar Level During Minutes on the Court: Chris Andersen Historic Superstar Level During Minutes on the Court Ruben Patterson Superstar Level During Minutes on the Court: Steven Hunter Superstar Level During Minutes on the Court: Smush Parker Superstar Level During Minutes on the Court: Kenyon Martin Star Level During Minutes on the Court: JR Smith Star Level During Minutes on the Court: Nene OUTSTANDING QUALITY GAMES FOR THE T-WOLVES Superstar Level During Minutes on the Court: Corey Brewer Star Level During Minutes on the Court: Al Jefferson POWER PERFORMERS NUGGETS STARTERS POWER PERFORMERS NONE, because it was a preseason game and minutes were limited. NUGGETS NON-STARTERS POWER PERFORMERS Very Big Game: Chris Andersen Big Game: JR Smith Big Game: Renaldo Balkman Big Game: Ruben Patterson T-WOLVES STARTERS POWER PERFORMERS NONE, because it was a preseason game and minutes were limited. T-WOLVES NON-STARTERS POWER PERFORMERS NONE, mostly because it was a preseason game and minutes were limited. Note: For the rundown of the best players and the power performers, I bump up or bump down, by one category, certain players, due to adjustments for defending, wherever such adjustments are obvious.
Now that I've done the trial run, I could show the ugly details of how the Lakers destroyed the Nuggets. I'm deciding whether I should do that, or just focus on the right now. Should I have mercy on the Nuggets organization by not showing the playoff series, or not?
