I don’t like the odds for Koscheck, especially since he has taken this fight on short notice. Alves has just too much power for Koscheck who will spend the entire fight trying to shoot in. Sports betting wise I would bet heavily on an Alves victory and I would also place a UFC prop bet for this fight to be over by KO in the first round. http://www.fighting-mma.com/mma-matchups/2008/ufc-90-betting-thiago-alves-josh-koscheck.php
I don't now if I would say that this will be over by the end of the first round, and it's hard to say whether he will KO Kosecheck or not. I know he took this fight on short notice, but I also know that he has never once been knocked out. Even against guy's like George St. Pierre and Chris Leben who have alot of power in their fists, he has never been knocked out. So I think Alves will have his work cut out for him in this fight, Koscheck is a VERY good replacement as far as determining places in the division for Diego, and a tough opponent. That said, I'm quite dissapointed that Diego got hurt, I know it's something he can't help, but I just wish it wouldn't have happened. I liked what he showed in his last fight, his much better standup and we all know about his ground game. I really wanted to see him fight again, and possibly with a win, get a shot at George St. Pierre. Now with Koscheck we all know how he is going to win if he does pull out the win, he is going to lay on Thiago for three straight rounds and get the most boring win that he usually gets. He will never be able to advance position, all he will do is lay close to his body, and throw the occasional elbow. Makes for a much less exciting fight with Koscheck. Diego fights are always fun in my opinion, except his last fight with Koscheck.
A preview of this fight? Soak a heavy wool quilt in lukewarm water. Have somebody wrap you up in it like a mummy. You now know what both Alves and the fans will be feeling like! OK, I exagerate.....Kos has improved greatly from the start of his career. Still, I can't see him beating Alves any other way.
Thiago showed some great take down defense vs Hughes. Although Hughes did look sloppy and desperate with is takedown attempts. If Alves takedown defense is that good though, it will be a short night for Kos. If Kos get's him down .... blanket time! I don't see Alves getting a sub on Kos.
While Alves did show great takedown defense against Hughes, I think Koscheck is a much better wrestler than Matt these days. Mostly centered around his athleticism, Koscheck is very explosive with his takedowns, and he won't be looking desperate going for his takedowns. Honostly, outside of probably George St. Pierre, there probably isn't a better pure wrestler than Koscheck in the Welterweight division. I agree if Koscheck can't take him down, Koscheck will be put to sleep in the middle of round 1. I just think Koscheck might have an easier time with the takedowns, because of his explosiveness.
I agree with what you said Valo, but what I'm wondering is how good is Alves takedown Defense? If it's as good as it looked vs Hughes or if it's gotten better, that will be the deciding factor. Kos is not bad standing up, but he's not ready for someone like Alves. with Elite XC folding, I wanna see Kos vs Sheilds
