Kevin Pelton: Suns Preview

Shapecity · Oct 25, 2008

3. Phoenix Suns (Projected Record: 46-36)
Offensive Rating: 113.0 (6th)
Defensive Rating: 11.5 (23rd)

Player WARP Win % PPG RPG APG Imp Break Dec Best Comp
Steve Nash 9.9 0.600 14.8 3.5 10.5 0.20 0.00 0.00 Mark Jackson
Raja Bell -2.1 0.376 11.5 3.7 2.2 0.45 0.07 0.00 Wesley Person
Grant Hill 2.9 0.480 11.5 4.5 2.9 0.13 0.00 0.06 Mario Elie
Amaré Stoudemire 17.6 0.744 25.7 9.3 1.5 0.64 0.00 0.00 Tim Duncan
Shaquille O'Neal 2.7 0.482 12.3 8.1 1.3 0.29 0.00 0.14 Artis Gilmore
Leandro Barbosa 4.2 0.505 16.1 3.0 3.0 0.51 0.04 0.06 Byron Scott
Boris Diaw 1.1 0.440 9.2 4.4 3.8 0.65 0.08 0.05 John Salmons
Matt Barnes 0.6 0.433 7.6 5.7 2.2 0.33 0.02 0.05 Rodney Rogers
Robin Lopez -0.5 0.395 4.6 3.1 0.4 ( R )
Sean Singletary -0.3 0.376 1.8 0.5 0.8 ( R )

The era of the Phoenix Suns as an elite offensive team appears to have come and gone, and SCHOENE believes that would be true even if Mike D'Antoni were still at the helm. Coaching changes aren't explicitly factored into our analysis, yet Phoenix's Offensive Rating is still projected to drop to sixth in the league. What we don't project is a corresponding improvement on the defensive end of the floor, something which remains a possibility under new head coach Terry Porter.

The biggest issue, figuratively and literally, is Shaquille O'Neal. Granting that SCHOENE struggles with unique players like O'Neal, all of his best comps were long done as star players with the possible exception of Hakeem Olajuwon's strong 2000-01 season. Shawn Marion is projected to be worth seven more wins than O'Neal will be worth this upcoming season. Maybe a bounceback is in the cards. I don't see it, and neither do the numbers. Without Marion, the Suns have just an aging Steve Nash and Amaré Stoudemire as stars. Lack of depth remains an issue beyond the solid top eight, meaning injuries could be disastrous. All things considered, this looks like the end of the run for Phoenix as far as contending for a championship is concerned.

Notes:

Despite all the negativity, the Suns are still projected to lead the NBA in effective field-goal percentage. It's just that they need to be way ahead of everyone else to overcome their inability to get to the free-throw line and poor offensive rebounding. Also, their turnover rate projects to get significantly worse, in no small part because of O'Neal.

Stoudemire should be in for an excellent season. Even without considering how O'Neal opened up the paint for him last year, Stoudemire is projected to finish third in the NBA in WARP.

I don't have a projection for Goran Dragic and have largely put Sean Singletary in the role of backup point guard that will likely be claimed by Dragic. John Hollinger has noted that Dragic's Euroleague numbers were not particularly impressive, so this may not matter much.
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Source: Basketball Prospectus

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Kevin Pelton: Suns Preview

Shapecity S2/JBB Teamster Staff Member Administrator

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Kevin Pelton: Suns Preview

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