Kevin Pelton: Clippers Preview

Shapecity · Oct 25, 2008

4. L.A. Clippers (Projected Record: 35-47)
Offensive Rating: 103.5 (28th)
Defensive Rating: 105.5 (2nd)

Player WARP Win % PPG RPG APG Imp Break Dec Best Comp
Baron Davis 9.9 0.579 18.9 4.1 7.1 0.26 0.00 0.06 Derek Harper
Cuttino Mobley -1.6 0.380 9.8 2.7 2.2 0.39 0.06 0.06 Randy Smith
Al Thornton 0.5 0.425 16.0 5.7 1.7 0.71 0.23 0.02 Willie Burton
Marcus Camby 10.1 0.605 7.4 10.7 3.0 0.17 0.00 0.08 Dikembe Mutombo
Chris Kaman 8.7 0.579 15.7 11.5 1.9 0.49 0.00 0.05 Dikembe Mutombo
Tim Thomas -0.2 0.410 9.8 4.0 2.2 0.44 0.08 0.06 Sean Elliott
Ricky Davis -0.4 0.403 7.7 2.3 2.0 0.46 0.02 0.00 Blue Edwards
Eric Gordon -2.0 0.352 8.5 1.5 1.4 ( R )
Jason Hart -0.5 0.383 2.6 0.8 1.4 0.58 0.12 0.04 Randy Brown
Brian Skinner 0.4 0.442 2.5 2.6 0.2 0.32 0.04 0.12 Wayne Cooper
DeAndre Jordan -0.3 0.365 1.2 1.0 0.1 ( R )
Steve Novak 0.2 0.444 2.0 0.5 0.1 - - - Wesley Person

The Los Angeles Clippers are the yang to the Golden State Warriors' yin. Davis went from Golden State to L.A., Maggette from the Clippers to the Warriors, and they helped push their new teams to respective extremes. Golden State is probably a little overprojected; L.A. is probably a little underprojected. The Warriors are all offense; the Clippers are all defense.

Yes, L.A. figures to be the most extreme team in the league, struggling to score at one end and playing stingy defense at the other. If SCHOENE is to be believed, get ready for a lot of 92-88 scores, Clippers fans. As I mentioned in the introduction to the projection system, this largely has to do with the pairing of Marcus Camby and Chris Kaman, two shot-blockers so good that both have Dikembe Mutombo as their top comp (yet in very different ways). While they won't block shots at the historical rate SCHOENE projects, the Clippers should lead the league. Davis is also a very good defender. L.A. should be much improved at that end of the floor, even if second in the league is a stretch. Offensively, things shouldn't be quite that bad, though the Clippers have put together a startling number of inefficient scorers. I think the Clippers can hang in the playoff race; advancing once there will be a tall order.

Notes:

The bench does not project to be a strength for the Clippers. While nobody is really bad, with the possible exception of Eric Gordon, nor does L.A. bring anyone off the bench who rates considerably above replacement level. Injuries to one of the three star players (Davis, Camby and Kaman) could be disastrous, which means it was good news when Davis found out Monday he does not need surgery on his injured finger.

Despite what was generally considered a fine rookie season, Al Thornton did not come out particularly well in my numbers because he was too dependent on two-pointers on offense and statistically a very poor defender (an assessment I think scouts would confirm). He projects as improving fairly dramatically this season, but still only getting slightly above replacement level.

The Clippers are unique in that their starting power forward who's normally a center (Camby) might be a better passer than any of their wing players. I might give Ricky Davis the nod over Camby, but it's close. He is second in assists per game.

Impressively, despite all the projected blocks, the Clippers figure to send opponents to the line less frequently than league average. Camby and Kaman project to rate first and fifth, respectively, in blocks per foul.

Despite the big frontcourt and their excellent defensive rebounding (second-best in the NBA), the Clippers are actually projected as below average in terms offensive rebounding. Camby spending so much time on the perimeter probably has much to do with this.

A friend passed along that Steve Novak has attempted all 18 of his shots in the preseason from three-point range. Nice work.
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Source: Los Angeles Clippers

futurama_fanatic · Oct 26, 2008

has anybody predicted a winning record so far?

DynastYWarrioR6 · Oct 27, 2008

I have the Clippers at 9th out West...around 45 wins

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Kevin Pelton: Clippers Preview

Shapecity S2/JBB Teamster Staff Member Administrator

futurama_fanatic I am evil homer

DynastYWarrioR6 JBB SmurfY

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Kevin Pelton: Clippers Preview

Shapecity S2/JBB Teamster Staff Member Administrator

futurama_fanatic I am evil homer

DynastYWarrioR6 JBB SmurfY

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